{"id": "stillwater-ok", "label": "Stillwater, OK", "city": "Stillwater", "state": "OK", "county": "Payne County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 50046, "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 30, "derived": 34, "estimated": 16}, "gaps": 1, "citations": {"checked": 15, "passed": 12, "failed": 3}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Stillwater, 30 are published figures, 34 are worked out from published figures, and 16 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "stillwater-ok", "city": "Stillwater", "state": "OK", "label": "Stillwater, OK", "county": "Payne County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 50046, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Stillwater city, Oklahoma.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 4070300 -- Stillwater city, Oklahoma"}, "range": [25023, 100092], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 29.79, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Stillwater city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_40.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 4070300 -- Stillwater city"}, "range": [14.9, 59.6], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 1680, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "50,046 residents divided by 29.79 square miles of land = 1,680 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [672, 4200], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 83889, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Payne County, Oklahoma. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 40119 -- Payne County, Oklahoma"}, "range": [41944, 167778], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Stillwater Regional", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SWO -- Stillwater Regional, Stillwater OK"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "SWO", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SWO -- Stillwater Regional, Stillwater OK"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 34729, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SWO -- Stillwater Regional, Stillwater OK"}, "range": [17364, 69458], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": -1.8, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 34,729 against CY2023 35,358, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (34,729 - 35,358) / 35,358 = -1.8%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 2.2, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (36.131496, -97.074464, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (36.161396, -97.085901, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 2.2 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [1.1, 5.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "Okc Will Rogers International (OKC) 59 mi away, 2,243,575 boardings a year; Tulsa International (TUL) 66 mi away, 1,627,181 boardings a year; Wichita Dwight D Eisenhower Ntl (ICT) 107 mi away, 885,585 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SWO -- Stillwater Regional, Stillwater OK"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1433, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Oklahoma in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Oklahoma, June 2026"}, "range": [0.072, 0.287], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.099, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Oklahoma, June 2026"}, "range": [0.05, 0.198], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1337, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Oklahoma, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.067, 0.267], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Payne County, OK -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 6 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co (#14063), Payne County County rows, OK"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "Central Rural Electric Cooperative, Inc (19,650 customers); Stillwater Utilities Authority (19,640 customers); Indian Electric Coop, Inc (14,839 customers); City of Cushing - (OK) (4,388 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co (#14063), Payne County County rows, OK"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1178, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co: residential revenue of $1,068,353.4 thousand against 9,067,611 MWh sold. (1,068,353.4 x 1,000 dollars) / (9,067,611 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1178 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.059, 0.236], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.08, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co: commercial revenue of $1,022,448.8 thousand against 12,782,432 MWh sold, so $0.0800 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.16], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "STILLWATER 2 W, OK US (USW00053926), 1.3 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00053926", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00053926.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "STILLWATER 2 W, OK US (USW00053926), 1.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 60.2, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00053926: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 60.2F.", "source": null, "range": [45.2, 75.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 37.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00053926", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00053926.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "STILLWATER 2 W, OK US (USW00053926), 1.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [22.4, 52.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 82.5, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00053926", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00053926.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "STILLWATER 2 W, OK US (USW00053926), 1.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [67.5, 97.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 36.04, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00053926: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 36.04 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [18.0, 64.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 95.4, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USW00053926: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 95.4 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 7.5, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00348501, 1.5 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station STILLWATER 2 W, OK US (USC00348501), 1.5 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 7.5 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 15], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 3.6, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00348501", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00348501.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "STILLWATER 2 W, OK US (USC00348501), 1.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8576, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Stillwater, OK, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: total population 49,269, of whom 7,016 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (49,269 - 7,016) / 49,269 = 0.8576.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 43700, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Stillwater, OK. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US4070300, B19013_E001"}, "range": [21850, 87400], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0683, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Stillwater, OK with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: 19,654 occupied households, of which 108 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 1,235 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (108 + 1,235) / 19,654 = 0.0683, or 6.8%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.6899, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: 16,044 of 23,256 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.6899, or 68.99%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0079, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: 184 of 23,256 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0079, or 0.79%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: 0 of 23,256 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0966, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: 2,247 of 23,256 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0966, or 9.66%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 15.4, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Stillwater, OK. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US4070300: 324,055 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 21,009 workers who did not work from home = 15.4 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 18.84, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Northwest Oklahoma nonmetropolitan area, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Northwest Oklahoma nonmetropolitan area', 430 people employed in it: median hourly wage $18.84. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 18.84 / 16.96 = 1.111.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 4000002 -- Northwest Oklahoma nonmetropolitan area"}, "range": [11.3, 33.91], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 18.84, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Northwest Oklahoma nonmetropolitan area"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Northwest Oklahoma nonmetropolitan area are paid a median of $18.84 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 430 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 111% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 1.111, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Northwest Oklahoma nonmetropolitan area' is $18.84 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 18.84 / 16.96 = 1.111. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.67, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $947 a month in Stillwater, OK (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 947 / 1413 = 0.670.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 39, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 1.111 = $39.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [16, 97], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 81, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 1.111 = $81.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [32, 201], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 168, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 1.111 = $168.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [67, 420], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 855, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.670 = $855 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [342, 2564], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 290, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,084.54 in OK against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1084.54 / 1281.60 = 0.846. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.846 = $290 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [116, 870], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1084.54, "unit": "$/year", "note": "OK average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 246, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$290 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $246. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [98, 738], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.071, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Year-round all-in cents per kWh on OG&E General Service SmartHours Fixed (GS-TOU) for midnight–06:00 at secondary voltage (Service Level 5): energy + fuel + energy-efficiency + storm riders. Midnight–06:00 is always off-peak on this tariff; OG&E has no cheaper overnight window on GS-TOU. GS-EV-TOU-PILOT (0.69¢ super-off-peak 23:00–06:00) closed to new subscribers on 2026-06-01. Residential SmartHours Overnight (R-EV-TOU) is not available for commercial/resale use.", "math": "Summer (Jun–Oct) GS-TOU off-peak all-in = 0.0137 energy (1.37¢, GS-TOU sheet 6.40) + 0.029313 FCA TOU-Off Peak SL5 (FCA sheet 50.85, effective 2026-06-01) + 0.003435 EEP 2026 non-residential + 0.001229 EEPLNR 2026 non-residential + 0.004284 SCRR SL5 (effective 2026-04) = 0.051961. Winter (Nov–May) has no time-of-day split: 0.0365 additional-kWh energy (3.65¢) + 0.038453 FCA winter SL5 + 0.008948 same riders = 0.083901. Year-round = (5/12)*0.051961 + (7/12)*0.083901 = 0.0706, shown as 0.071. Used the over-1,000 kWh winter block because a charging operator will exceed 1,000 kWh/month (first 1,000 kWh winter is 3.89¢, which would raise the year-round figure about 0.001). Excludes the $50.95/month GS-TOU customer charge, Stillwater franchise, tax-change and assessment riders — likely slightly optimistic (actual billed $/kWh a bit higher). GS-TOU is limited to demand under 10 kW, or 10–400 kW with load factor under 25%; a high-demand DCFC depot may be forced onto Power and Light instead.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.16], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.071, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "OG&E GS-TOU has only two summer periods, not three: 06:00–16:00 is billed at the same off-peak/winter energy charge as overnight, except 14:00–16:00 on summer weekdays, which is on-peak. This is not a guessed midday discount — the tariff really does not split overnight from daytime.", "math": "Same year-round GS-TOU all-in as power_offpeak: (5/12)*0.051961 + (7/12)*0.083901 = 0.0706 ≈ 0.071. The only hours inside 06:00–16:00 that are not this price are 14:00–16:00, Monday–Friday, June 1–September 30 (excluding Juneteenth, Independence Day, Labor Day), which take the 0.373 on-peak all-in. That is roughly 6% of annual 06:00–16:00 hours; blending it in would raise this figure only to about 0.089. Left unblended so the editor sees the tariff’s actual off-peak price. Same exclusions as power_offpeak (customer charge, franchise, leftover riders).", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["power_offpeak"], "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening peak electricity", "value": 0.373, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "All-in GS-TOU summer on-peak price (energy + fuel + EE + storm riders) at Service Level 5. OG&E’s peak is 14:00–19:00 weekdays June 1–September 30, not 16:00–24:00 every day: after 19:00, weekends, holidays, and all winter you pay the off-peak/winter rate (~0.07). Using 0.373 for every evening hour would overstate cost.", "math": "0.3180 energy (31.80¢, GS-TOU) + 0.046226 FCA TOU-On Peak SL5 (FCA sheet 50.85, Jun 2026) + 0.003435 EEP + 0.001229 EEPLNR + 0.004284 SCRR = 0.373174 ≈ 0.373 $/kWh. Applies only 2:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m. local time, June 1 through September 30, excluding Saturdays, Sundays, Juneteenth, Independence Day, and Labor Day. A naive year-round 16:00–24:00 blend (3 peak hours on summer weekdays, otherwise off-peak/winter) is about 0.11 $/kWh — use that if the editor needs an evening average rather than the tariff’s actual peak price. Same exclusions as power_offpeak.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charger", "value": 0.52, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Posted public DCFC price at Francis Energy’s Strickland Park site in Stillwater (CCS, up to ~200 kW), a flat $0.52/kWh every hour. Francis Energy is the public fast-charge network in town. A local April 2026 report gives the same $0.52 at Strickland Park; Francis’s upgraded Norman site is cheaper ($0.36–$0.48 TOU), so this Stillwater figure may sit at the high end of Francis’s Oklahoma prices. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rivian Roamer (Francis Energy Strickland Park)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://rivianroamer.com/charging/sites/24", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.3, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Francis Energy (FCN) fast charging here", "federal": "the snapshot lists Strickland Park (FCN, 8 fast ports, 1.1 mi)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes — SmartHours Fixed (GS-TOU small commercial; R-TOU residential). SmartHours Overnight (R-EV-TOU) is residential-only, 23:00–06:00 super-off-peak. GS-EV-TOU-PILOT closed to new subscribers 2026-06-01.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "OG&E publishes optional TOU tariffs a small operator in Stillwater can actually take: GS-TOU SmartHours Fixed is the open small-commercial plan (demand under 10 kW, or 10–400 kW with load factor under 25%). Peak is only five summer weekday hours (14:00–19:00). The commercial overnight-EV pilot is closed to new subscriptions. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/6-40_gs-tou_smarthours-fixed_stamped-approved: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi service on the ground", "value": "Uber and Lyft both operate; waits are longer than in large cities. Local cabs are thin (Cowboy Country Cab, Best Taxi, Green Machine Cab with hour-plus waits).", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Uber's own Stillwater city page is the primary operator source that the apps run 24/7 here and that pickups are slower than in bigger cities; Lyft and a handful of small taxi names appear on fare and Yelp listings, which is the thin-supply picture a college town of 50,000 actually has. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Uber", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/stillwater-ok-us/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "50,000 people", "federal": "the note says 50,000; the Census file says Stillwater city 50,046 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "OSU-Stillwater Community Transit (The Bus) runs Monday–Friday 6:20 a.m.–10:30 p.m. in the academic year and until 7:00 p.m. in summer/breaks; no Saturday or Sunday service.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The city's destination bureau and the operator's own hours matter because a town with no evening-after-10:30 or weekend bus pushes bar, hospital-shift, and weekend trips onto cars or paid rides; this is the local bus, not a metro system. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Visit Stillwater", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.visitstillwater.org/listing/stillwater-osu-community-transit/212/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 3.2, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes TNC trip length for Stillwater; the city's own 29.79 sq mi land area and 15.4-minute mean commute are the strongest local facts, and the national ride-hail mean of 6.1 miles is for much larger metros.", "math": "Land area 29.79 sq mi gives an equivalent-disk radius of sqrt(29.79/pi) = 3.08 miles and a mean distance between two random points of about 0.90×3.08 = 2.8 miles. Mean commute is 15.4 minutes; ACS for this place also shows 34.5% of commutes under 10 minutes and 81.4% of workers working in the city, so daily travel is short. National TNC mean is 6.1 miles (Schaller, 2016–17 NHTS) and 5.1 miles in RideAustin paid trips; those are larger, denser markets. Step DOWN on this city's small footprint and short commute, and because campus, downtown, The Strip, the hospital, and SWO (about 2 miles) sit in one cluster: 3.2 miles. Likely conservative as an average if OKC/Tulsa airport runs (59 and 66 miles) mix in, but those are rare given thin supply.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.55, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Paid trips in a 30-square-mile college town cluster on campus, downtown, and bar hops; a national/Austin TNC sample with a 5.1-mile mean still had 44% under 3 miles, so this shorter geography should sit above that.", "math": "RideAustin (282,037 paid trips) had 44% under 3 miles at a 5.1-mile mean. Scaling the local mean down from 5.1 to 3.2 (this pack's trip_mi_avg) moves more of the distribution under the 3-mile line. Local evidence that pulls the share UP: 6.83% of households have no vehicle and live near campus/downtown; 15.4-minute mean commute; no weekend bus so short nightlife hops substitute. Pulls DOWN: 93% of households have a car so many short trips are self-driven, not paid. Use 0.55, above Austin's 0.44 and below a pure bar-hop share near 0.70.", "source": null, "range": [0.25, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.07, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Stillwater's land area implies a city diameter of about 6 miles, so almost no intra-city paid trip can exceed 10 miles; the residual is OKC/Tulsa/Perry runs, which exist on fare tables but are thin.", "math": "Equivalent diameter 2×sqrt(29.79/pi) = 6.2 miles, so a trip over 10 miles leaves town. RideAustin, a much larger metro, had 14% of paid trips over 10 miles. Uber lists Stillwater–OKC at 59 miles and Stillwater–TUL at 66 miles. Step DOWN from 0.14 to 0.07 because (a) geography caps in-town length, (b) ACS 0.0 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail, and (c) thin TNC supply makes long deadheads unattractive for drivers. Direction: likely a floor if football weekends generate more OKC airport runs than a typical week.", "source": null, "range": [0.02, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand between 21:00 and 03:00", "value": 0.24, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "College bars, OSU nights, and hospital shift changes sit in this window, and The Bus stops at 10:30 p.m. weekdays and does not run weekends, so night demand that would be a bus in a bigger city is a car or a paid ride here.", "math": "A uniform 6-hour slice of the day is 6/24 = 0.25. RideAustin paid trips were majority night (8 p.m.–midnight and midnight–6 a.m.) and 60% Friday–Sunday, so TNC demand is night-heavy in a college-adjacent city. Step DOWN from that 'majority of a 10-hour night' (call it ~0.50 over 20:00–06:00) because this pack's window is 21:00–03:00 (misses 8–9 p.m. peak and 3–6 a.m. lull) and because only 6.83% of households here have no vehicle (ACS) so many night trips are a friend with a car. No evening/weekend bus and Stillwater Medical Center shift changes pull the other way. 0.24 is near uniform, slightly night-weighted, and likely conservative if supply ever thickens on bar nights.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.45], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 400000, "unit": "person-trips/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Visit Stillwater does not publish a citywide annual visitor count, only grant-supported event counts, so calendar-year 2024 lodging occupancy is the last complete year that can be turned into people; using a different year is how prior packs jumped between 41 million-scale errors.", "math": "CY2024 STR for Stillwater: 1,403 rooms × 365 × 46.2% occupancy = 236,588 occupied hotel room-nights (Edmond VETAB STR packet, YTD December 2024). Short-term rentals: Visit Stillwater counted 323–349 listings; 336 × 365 × ~40% occupancy ≈ 49,000 occupied unit-nights (AirDNA 34.9% in Dec 2023, 44% around June 2024). Commercial lodging nights ≈ 285,600. Using this pack's Oklahoma hotel/STR party size 2.1 and stay 2.8 nights: overnight commercial person-trips = 285,600 / 2.8 × 2.1 = 214,200. Add ~80,000 VFR overnight person-trips (Dean Runyan 2020 Payne County had 373,750 overnight person-trips of all types in a COVID year; hotels are not the whole story in a college town). Day visitors: Visit Stillwater's FY2024 grant-supported events had 59,310 day visitors — a floor for funded events only — plus ~7 OSU home football dates; add 110,000 day person-trips. Total 214,200 + 80,000 + 110,000 = 404,200, rounded to 400,000 for calendar year 2024. Likely conservative: ignores 2025's 200,000-person Boys from Oklahoma concerts (wrong year) and treats football overnights as already in the hotel count so they are not double-counted as day trips.", "source": null, "range": [150000, 900000], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitor_party_size", "visitor_nights_avg"]}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.1, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Visit Stillwater does not publish a local party size; Oklahoma's hotel/motel/short-term-rental overnight party size is the right converter from room-nights to people because a party shares one room, and this is a state figure not a Stillwater survey. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Dean Runyan Associates / Oklahoma Tourism & Recreation Department", "date": "2022-01", "url": "https://ds8hbldo2z4gr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2020-Economic-Impact-Report.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 2.1 on the same line as 'hotel, motel, str'"}, "range": [1.2, 4.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights a visiting party stays", "value": 2.8, "unit": "nights", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Visit Stillwater does not publish a local length of stay; the Oklahoma hotel/motel/STR overnight stay of 2.8 nights (2020 Dean Runyan) is the published lodging stay, and it is a state figure — football weekends here are often 1–2 nights so 2.8 is likely long for this city. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Dean Runyan Associates / Oklahoma Tourism & Recreation Department", "date": "2022-01", "url": "https://ds8hbldo2z4gr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2020-Economic-Impact-Report.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 2.8 on the same line as 'hotel, motel, str'"}, "range": [1.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count (independent check)", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No Oklahoma or Stillwater agency publishes TNC or taxi trip counts for this city, so the independent check is an audited zero rather than a silent omission.", "math": "Checked the five required places. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Oklahoma Corporation Commission Transportation Network Companies page (oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/transportation/transportation-network-companies.html, modified 2026-07-29) is permits and the 2015 TNC Act only — no trip totals; Passenger Carriers page likewise has licenses, not counts; TNC ride records are kept confidential under 47 O.S. §1029/§1013. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: stillwaterok.gov has sales/visitor-tax PDFs and no TNC/taxi trip report; TNCs are exclusive OCC jurisdiction so the city does not permit them; 2022 traffic-citation tables mention taxi-license display, not trip volume. (3) Airport ground transportation: Stillwater Regional Airport (stillwaterok.gov/157/Airport and flystillwaterok.com) publishes no TNC pickup counts. (4) MPO/RTPO travel survey: Stillwater is not in ACOG (OKC MPO); CORTPO/ODOT Payne County LRTP and the Payne County survey have mode comments but no TNC or taxi trip totals. (5) Local reporting: O'Colly, The Stillwegian, and The Oklahoman quote visitor spending and event crowds, not taxi/TNC trips. Value 0 means no published count was found, not that zero rides occur.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City geography type", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Stillwater is one compact college town: 50,046 people on 29.79 square miles, with downtown, OSU, Campus Corner, The Strip and the hospital all inside a ~3-mile circle and the airport 2.2 miles from the centre — one car covers the whole city.", "math": "Equivalent circular radius of the settled 29.79 sq mi land area is 3.08 miles. Visit Stillwater names four visitor districts and Wikipedia lists Downtown, OSU Campus, Campus Corner and The Strip as adjacent neighbourhoods, not separate municipalities. The Stillwater Micropolitan Statistical Area is Payne County on paper; the city itself is not a multi-district metro like Oklahoma City or Tulsa. Conservative toward single-radius — the named districts are real demand pockets, but they sit within a short drive of each other.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["city_radius_mi"]}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 3.08, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge mileage; this is the equivalent circular radius of the city's land area, which is the right scale for a fleet that has to cover the built-up town.", "math": "Settled land area is 29.79 square miles. Radius of a circle with that area = sqrt(29.79 / π) = sqrt(9.482) = 3.08 miles. This is the city-limit equivalent radius, not a surveyed built-up edge. Likely a slight overestimate of the tight campus-to-downtown core (well under 2 miles) and a slight underestimate of the farthest Perkins Road / airport-road fringe.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 5, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Five meaningfully different demand pockets sit inside the town: the OSU campus/stadium, Campus Corner, The Strip, downtown, and the 6th Avenue hospital corridor.", "math": "Visit Stillwater names four visitor districts (Campus Corner, Downtown Cultural District, Downtown Stillwater, The Strip). Wikipedia separately lists OSU Campus as a neighbourhood. Downtown Cultural District and Downtown Stillwater overlap on Main Street, so counting the CVB's four as four distinct fleet districts would double-count downtown; counting only those four would omit the 27,655-student campus, which is the dominant demand engine. Five = campus/stadium + Campus Corner + The Strip + downtown + 6th Ave hospital. Perkins Road big-box retail is a sixth fringe if an editor wants it.", "source": null, "range": [1, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Districts", "value": "OSU campus and Boone Pickens Stadium; Campus Corner; The Strip on Washington St; downtown Main Street / cultural district; Stillwater Medical on 6th Ave", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the named neighbourhoods on Wikipedia and the visitor-bureau district list, plus the hospital on 6th Avenue — the actual places a fleet would choose between, all inside one town. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikipedia, Stillwater, Oklahoma", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stillwater,_Oklahoma", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 14 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport scheduled flights", "value": "2 daily American Eagle flights to Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) only", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The city's own airport page: SWO is a two-a-day spoke to one hub, not a connecting airport — that is the demand pattern.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Stillwater, Destinations (Stillwater Regional Airport)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://stillwaterok.gov/561/Destinations", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 7 of the 8 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "OSU (27,655 students, ~5,500–6,000 staff); Stillwater Medical Center (117 beds, ~1,800–2,000 system staff); Boone Pickens Stadium (52,202 seats); Stillwater Public Schools; City of Stillwater", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the named institutions that actually move people in Stillwater: the land-grant campus, the community hospital, the football stadium that fills the town, the public schools and city hall.", "math": "OSU-Stillwater first-day fall 2025 enrolment 27,655 (The O'Colly). Wikipedia Chamber table lists OSU at 6,007 employees and the university text says more than 5,500 personnel. Hospital system 'nearly 2000' / 'over 1800' employees on stillwater-medical.org; Stillwater campus is a 117-bed acute-care hospital. Boone Pickens Stadium official capacity 52,202 (okstate.com). Wikipedia Chamber table also lists Stillwater Public Schools 779 and City of Stillwater 585 (older than the 2024 ACFR figures of 971 and 582). This is a compilation, not a single published sentence.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital staffed beds", "value": 117, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Stillwater Medical Center is the city's only acute-care hospital; 117 is the bed count the hospital publishes for that campus. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Stillwater Medical, Who We Are", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.stillwater-medical.org/who-we-are/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [50, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 29355, "unit": "students", "basis": "derived", "why": "Sum of the two colleges actually in the city: OSU-Stillwater plus Northern Oklahoma College's Stillwater site.", "math": "27,655 OSU-Stillwater (The O'Colly, first day of fall 2025 classes: 'It currently is sitting at 27,655 students.') + 1,700 NOC Stillwater (NOC 2024-25 catalog: 'serving some 1,700 students'). Excludes Meridian Technology Center (career-tech, not a college) and all other OSU System campuses (Tulsa, OKC, Okmulgee, CHS). The 1,700 is catalog language ('some 1,700'), so ± a few hundred. Likely slightly high if Gateway students later appear in the OSU count; first-day 27,655 is 241 above the Oklahoma State Regents preliminary fall 2025 OSU headcount of 27,414.", "source": null, "range": [15000, 40000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Events that move demand", "value": "OSU Homecoming Walkaround and parade (October, 70,000+); Cowboys football at Boone Pickens Stadium (fall Saturdays); Boys from Oklahoma concert (April); Tumbleweed Calf Fry (late April–May)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the annual events with sourced months and crowds: Homecoming is the town-filler, football Saturdays are weekly in season, Boys from Oklahoma packed the stadium in April, and Calf Fry is the spring music weekend. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikipedia, Stillwater, Oklahoma", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stillwater,_Oklahoma", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 14 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Minimum TNC liability limits", "value": "$50,000/$100,000/$25,000 available; $1,000,000 CSL on-trip", "unit": "limits", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Oklahoma TNC statute 47 O.S. § 1025, not a broker summary: $50k/$100k/$25k while logged on and available; $1 million combined for death, bodily injury, and property damage while on a prearranged ride. For-hire motor carriers of passengers are a different OCC rule (not this statute). Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.oscn.net/applications/OCISWeb/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=476751: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 1 of the 2 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [25000, 1000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration", "value": "$5,000/yr OCC TNC company permit; TNC cars stay on ordinary personal registration (no special plate)", "unit": "note", "basis": "estimated", "why": "47 O.S. § 1013 requires the TNC—not each car—to hold a $5,000 annual OCC permit. TNC drivers must use personal vehicles, so the car itself is a standard Oklahoma passenger tag ($26–$96/yr by age on Service Oklahoma). A Stillwater taxi/limo instead needs the city’s $10/yr vehicle-for-hire license plus an OCC for-hire license ($7 ID stamp per vehicle). Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.oscn.net/applications/OCISWeb/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=476694: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 0 of the 9 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The City of Stillwater’s own parking page states public parking is free (timed 30 minutes to 3 hours, enforced weekdays 9–5). City Council ended leased spaces in Lot 701 effective 1 June 2025, so there is no city monthly downtown stall to buy.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Stillwater, Parking & Transportation", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://stillwaterok.gov/575/Parking-Transportation", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0, 80], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.452, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0683 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.82x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.45x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.23, 0.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0521, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Stillwater who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.45x: 0.1152 x 0.45 = 0.0521. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0208 to 0.1303, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0208, 0.1303], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.5, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.5, 2.7, 2.4, 2.4, 2.5. The MEDIAN, 2.5, is used; the draws spanned 2.4 to 2.7, a factor of 1.13. Only 0.0683 of households lack a vehicle and the mean commute is 15.4 minutes, so even monthly-active residents use ride-hail as an occasional handful of trips, not a commute substitute.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0868, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "34,729 boardings at SWO in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 400,000 visitors a year = 0.087. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95.", "source": null, "range": [0.043, 0.13], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "34,729 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 34,729; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SWO = 34,729 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.22, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.18, 0.28, 0.18, 0.28, 0.22. The MEDIAN, 0.22, is used; the draws spanned 0.18 to 0.28, a factor of 1.56. SWO is only 2.2 miles from centre with no rail or useful transit, but 34,729 annual boardings mark a tiny college-town field where friend/family pickup and rental cars take most transfers.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "34,729 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 34,729; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SWO = 34,729 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.55, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.6, 0.55, 0.5, 0.5, 1.1. The MEDIAN, 0.55, is used; the draws spanned 0.5 to 1.1, a factor of 2.20. A 2.8-night stay in a 29.79 sq mi city with a 15.4-minute mean commute is compact, so a visiting party of 2.1 takes few in-town ride-hail trips beyond the odd nightlife hop.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.588, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.087 arriving by air x 0.220 of those hiring a ride = 0.038, plus 0.550 trips in town = 0.588 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.52 to 1.17. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 491, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 50046 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8576 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0521 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.5 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 400000 (worked out from published figures); Average visiting party size = 2.1 (a published figure); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.588 (our estimate). Residents: 50,046 people x 0.8576 adults = 42,919 adults; x 0.0521 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 2,236 people; x 2.5 trips each a month = 5,590 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 184 resident rides a day. Visitors: 400,000 a year / 2.1 people in a party = 190,476 visiting parties; x 0.588 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 307 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 63% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 491 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 340 rides a day, and at its own high bound 1,109. The 491 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked the five required places. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Oklahoma Corporation Commission Transportation Network Companies page (oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/transportation/transportation-network-companies.html, modified 2026-07-29) is permits and the 2015 TNC Act only — no trip totals; Passenger Carriers page likewise has licenses, not counts; TNC ride records are kept confidential under 47 O.S. §1029/§1013. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: stillwaterok.gov has sales/visitor-tax PDFs and no TNC/taxi trip report; TNCs are exclusive OCC jurisdiction so the city does not permit them; 2022 traffic-citation tables mention taxi-license display, not trip volume. (3) Airport ground transportation: Stillwater Regional Airport (stillwaterok.gov/157/Airport and flystillwaterok.com) publishes no TNC pickup counts. (4) MPO/RTPO travel survey: Stillwater is not in ACOG (OKC MPO); CORTPO/ODOT Payne County LRTP and the Payne County survey have mode comments but no TNC or taxi trip totals. (5) Local reporting: O'Colly, The Stillwegian, and The Oklahoman quote visitor spending and event crowds, not taxi/TNC trips. Value 0 means no published count was found, not that zero rides occur. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [123, 1963], "editable": true, "low": 340, "high": 1109, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked the five required places. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Oklahoma Corporation Commission Transportation Network Companies page (oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/transportation/transportation-network-companies.html, modified 2026-07-29) is permits and the 2015 TNC Act only — no trip totals; Passenger Carriers page likewise has licenses, not counts; TNC ride records are kept confidential under 47 O.S. §1029/§1013. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: stillwaterok.gov has sales/visitor-tax PDFs and no TNC/taxi trip report; TNCs are exclusive OCC jurisdiction so the city does not permit them; 2022 traffic-citation tables mention taxi-license display, not trip volume. (3) Airport ground transportation: Stillwater Regional Airport (stillwaterok.gov/157/Airport and flystillwaterok.com) publishes no TNC pickup counts. (4) MPO/RTPO travel survey: Stillwater is not in ACOG (OKC MPO); CORTPO/ODOT Payne County LRTP and the Payne County survey have mode comments but no TNC or taxi trip totals. (5) Local reporting: O'Colly, The Stillwegian, and The Oklahoman quote visitor spending and event crowds, not taxi/TNC trips. Value 0 means no published count was found, not that zero rides occur.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 491, "our_range_per_day": [123, 1963]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "50,046 people", "federal": "the note says 50,046; the Census file says Stillwater city 50,046 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Utility is OG&E. All-in TOU figures are derived from the stamped Oklahoma GS-TOU energy charges (https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/6-40_gs-tou_smarthours-fixed_stamped-approved, issued 2024-11-26, effective 2025-01-01) plus FCA sheet 50.85 SL5 factors effective 2026-06-01 (https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/50-85-fca-fuel-cost-adjustment-17th-revised-stamped-approved), EEP/EEPLNR 2026 non-residential (https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/52-74-eep-stamped-approved-website), and SCRR SL5 0.004284 effective 2026-04 (https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/51-82-scrr-21st-revised-stamped-approved). They exclude the $50.95/mo customer charge, municipal franchise, and remaining riders, so they run a little low vs a real bill. OG&E does not have a three-period clock: overnight and midday are the same GS-TOU price; the only expensive window is 14:00–19:00 summer weekdays. Residential R-EV-TOU super-off-peak is 2.70¢ energy 23:00–06:00 year-round (https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/3-60_r-ev-tou_smarthours_overnight_stamped-approved) but forbids commercial/resale. GS-EV-TOU-PILOT super-off-peak 0.69¢ closed to new subscriptions 2026-06-01 (https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/6-60_gs-ev-tou_smarthours_overnight_stamped-approved). Public DCFC: Francis Energy Strickland Park $0.52/kWh flat (Rivian Roamer, source labeled Francis Energy); The Stillwegian 2026-04-30 independently reports the same $0.52 at Strickland Park (https://www.thestillwegian.news/ev-chargers-at-stillwater-library-get-a-tesla-upgrade-and-a-reliability-reset/). Library Tesla-hardware upgrade pricing was unconfirmed as of that article. Do not invent a cheaper overnight GS-TOU rate — that absence is the finding.", "demand": "Stillwater, OK (OSU college town, Payne County). Established Census inputs used as ground, not re-researched: population 50,046; land 29.79 sq mi; county 83,889; 18+ share 0.8576; no-vehicle households 0.0683; mean commute 15.4 min; taxi/ride-hail commute share 0.0; transit commute 0.0079; WFH 0.0966; median household income $43,700. Visit Stillwater does not publish a citywide annual visitor total — only grant-supported event visitors (e.g. FY2024 59,310 day / 17,350 overnight; FY2025 grants 58,646 day / 14,299 overnight). visitors_year is therefore derived for calendar year 2024 from STR occupancy so a later run does not pick a different fiscal year. visitor_party_size 2.1 and visitor_nights_avg 2.8 are 2020 Oklahoma hotel/motel/STR figures (Dean Runyan), not a Stillwater survey; football weekends here are often shorter than 2.8 nights, which would raise overnight person-trips if substituted. Transit hours also confirmed on Wikipedia/The Bus (no Saturday or Sunday service). Uber is the primary operator citation; Lyft availability is corroborated on Uphail (secondary). No adult_share, ridehail_ever_share, ridehail_month_share, trips_per_user_month, visitor_trips_per_stay, or rides_per_day records are included.", "geography": "Hospital 117 is the Stillwater campus figure the hospital publishes (who-we-are, 2026). AMA FREIDA lists 97 beds and average daily census 55 for the same hospital, so 117 is licensed/setup rather than occupied staffed census and is likely high vs true staffed. Oklahoma State Department of Health facility directory (as of 7/8/2026) listed 140 beds and 18 bassinets — higher still; not used because the PDF table extract was too messy to quote cleanly next to the name. College total is OSU-Stillwater 27,655 (O'Colly 2025-08-19, first day of fall 2025; census was still open) plus NOC Stillwater ~1,700 (2024-25 catalog); Meridian Tech is omitted as career-tech. Homecoming 70,000 is Wikipedia's long-standing figure (not a 2025 headcount). Boys from Oklahoma: OSU Athletics (2025-04-15) reported nearly 180,000 tickets and more than 200,000 people in Stillwater in April 2025; News9 reported a return show on 2026-04-11. Calf Fry 2026 is April 30–May 2 at Tumbleweed (Visit Stillwater). Boone Pickens official capacity is 52,202 (okstate.com). City airport page is the primary for the two-a-day DFW pattern; third-party schedulers also show ~2 daily AA/American Eagle SWO–DFW only. Google's Stillwater data center was mentioned in local remarks but was not verified here and is not in generators_note.", "costs": "Do not confuse Stillwater, OK with Stillwater, MN (paid downtown permits). Extra paperwork, not in the three values: Service Oklahoma passenger tags $96/$86/$66/$46/$26 by age (https://oklahoma.gov/service/all-services/auto-vehicle/fees.html); Stillwater taxi/limo city license $10/yr (https://stillwaterok.gov/400/Licenses and Taxi Vehicle for Hire PDF); OCC for-hire ID stamp $7/vehicle (https://oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/transportation/trucking/intrastate-licenses-for-hire-motor-carriers.html). 47 O.S. § 1025 last amended 1 Nov 2017; OSCN compilation is 2026."}, "gaps": ["rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 30, "derived": 34, "estimated": 16}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 30, "primary": 20, "secondary": 10, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 50, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. 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"figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1889.4}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "stillwater-ok", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.22, "draws": [0.18, 0.28, 0.18, 0.28, 0.22], "min": 0.18, "max": 0.28, "spread_x": 1.56}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.55, "draws": [0.6, 0.55, 0.5, 0.5, 1.1], "min": 0.5, "max": 1.1, "spread_x": 2.2}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.5, "draws": [2.5, 2.7, 2.4, 2.4, 2.5], "min": 2.4, "max": 2.7, "spread_x": 1.13}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [340, 1109]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked the five required places. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Oklahoma Corporation Commission Transportation Network Companies page (oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/transportation/transportation-network-companies.html, modified 2026-07-29) is permits and the 2015 TNC Act only — no trip totals; Passenger Carriers page likewise has licenses, not counts; TNC ride records are kept confidential under 47 O.S. §1029/§1013. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: stillwaterok.gov has sales/visitor-tax PDFs and no TNC/taxi trip report; TNCs are exclusive OCC jurisdiction so the city does not permit them; 2022 traffic-citation tables mention taxi-license display, not trip volume. (3) Airport ground transportation: Stillwater Regional Airport (stillwaterok.gov/157/Airport and flystillwaterok.com) publishes no TNC pickup counts. (4) MPO/RTPO travel survey: Stillwater is not in ACOG (OKC MPO); CORTPO/ODOT Payne County LRTP and the Payne County survey have mode comments but no TNC or taxi trip totals. (5) Local reporting: O'Colly, The Stillwegian, and The Oklahoman quote visitor spending and event crowds, not taxi/TNC trips. Value 0 means no published count was found, not that zero rides occur.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 491, "our_range_per_day": [123, 1963]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Stillwater, 30 are published figures, 34 are worked out from published figures, and 16 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [36.131496, -97.074464], "geoid": "4070300", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Stillwater city", "population": 50046, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Payne County", "population": 83889, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 4, "dcfc_ports": 16, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "Strickland Park", "network": "FCN", "ports": 8, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.1, "open_date": "2020-12-02"}, {"name": "Bill Knight Ford Stillwater", "network": "FCN", "ports": 2, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772 J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.6, "open_date": "2024-10-10"}, {"name": "Wilson Buick GMC Cadillac", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.8, "open_date": "2024-07-31"}, {"name": "Wilson Chevrolet", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 3.0, "open_date": "2025-10-10"}], "l2_sites": 3, "l2_ports": 8, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "Strickland Park", "network": "FCN", "ports": 8, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.1, "city": "Stillwater", "state": "OK"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 8, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 5, "claims": 13, "records_touched": 10, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Francis Energy (FCN) fast charging here", "claim_text": "Posted public DCFC price at Francis Energy’s Strickland Park site in Stillwater (CCS, up to ~200 kW), a flat $0.52/kWh every hour.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Strickland Park (FCN, 8 fast ports, 1.1 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Francis Energy (FCN) fast charging here", "claim_text": "Francis Energy is the public fast-charge network in town.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Strickland Park (FCN, 8 fast ports, 1.1 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "ridehail_present", "field": "why", "subject": "population", "claim": "50,000 people", "claim_text": "Lyft and a handful of small taxi names appear on fare and Yelp listings, which is the thin-supply picture a college town of 50,000 actually has.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 50,000; the Census file says Stillwater city 50,046 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Stillwater Medical Center (117 beds, ~1,800–2,000 system staff);", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Stillwater campus is a 117-bed acute-care hospital.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "117 is the bed count the hospital publishes for that campus.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "34,729 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "34,729 boardings at SWO in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 400,000 visitors a year = 0.087.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 34,729; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SWO = 34,729 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "34,729 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "SWO is only 2.2 miles from centre with no rail or useful transit, but 34,729 annual boardings mark a tiny college-town field where friend/family pickup and rental cars take most transfers.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 34,729; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SWO = 34,729 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "50,046 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 50,046 people x 0.8576 adults = 42,919 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 50,046; the Census file says Stillwater city 50,046 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Francis Energy (FCN) fast charging here", "claim_text": "Public DCFC: Francis Energy Strickland Park $0.52/kWh flat (Rivian Roamer, source labeled Francis Energy);", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Strickland Park (FCN, 8 fast ports, 1.1 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "50,046 people", "claim_text": "Established Census inputs used as ground, not re-researched: population 50,046;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 50,046; the Census file says Stillwater city 50,046 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "AMA FREIDA lists 97 beds and average daily census 55 for the same hospital, so 117 is licensed/setup rather than occupied staffed census and is likely high vs true staffed.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Oklahoma State Department of Health facility directory (as of 7/8/2026) listed 140 beds and 18 bassinets — higher still;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 3, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 3, "passes_the_same_test_now": 0, "still_fails_the_same_test": 3, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://www.oscn.net/applications/OCISWeb/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=476751", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 1 of the 2 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 1 of the 2 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "power_tou_note", "url": "https://www.oge.com/documents/d/portal/6-40_gs-tou_smarthours-fixed_stamped-approved", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "registration_note", "url": "https://www.oscn.net/applications/OCISWeb/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=476694", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 0 of the 9 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 2 of the 9 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}