{"id": "sarasota-fl", "label": "Sarasota, FL", "city": "Sarasota", "state": "FL", "county": "Sarasota County", "geography": "multi-district metro", "population": 58458, "researched_on": "2026-09-12", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 27, "derived": 30, "estimated": 23}, "gaps": 5, "citations": {"checked": 13, "passed": 9, "failed": 4}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Sarasota, 27 are published figures, 30 are worked out from published figures, and 23 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "sarasota-fl", "city": "Sarasota", "state": "FL", "label": "Sarasota, FL", "county": "Sarasota County", "geography_type": "multi-district metro", "researched_on": "2026-09-12", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 58458, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Sarasota city, Florida.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 1264175 -- Sarasota city, Florida"}, "range": [29229, 116916], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 14.703, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Sarasota city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_12.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 1264175 -- Sarasota city"}, "range": [7.4, 29.4], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 3976, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "58,458 residents divided by 14.703 square miles of land = 3,976 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [1590, 9940], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 479958, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Sarasota County, Florida. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 12115 -- Sarasota County, Florida"}, "range": [239979, 959916], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Sarasota/Bradenton International", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SRQ -- Sarasota/Bradenton International, Sarasota FL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "SRQ", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SRQ -- Sarasota/Bradenton International, Sarasota FL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 2112417, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SRQ -- Sarasota/Bradenton International, Sarasota FL"}, "range": [1056208, 4224834], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": -1.5, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 2,112,417 against CY2023 2,144,736, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (2,112,417 - 2,144,736) / 2,144,736 = -1.5%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 4.0, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (27.338257, -82.543721, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (27.395449, -82.554392, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 4.0 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 10.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "Orlando International (MCO) 107 mi away, 27,859,783 boardings a year; Tampa International (TPA) 44 mi away, 12,075,591 boardings a year; Southwest Florida International (RSW) 74 mi away, 5,425,293 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SRQ -- Sarasota/Bradenton International, Sarasota FL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.151, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Florida in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Florida, June 2026"}, "range": [0.075, 0.302], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1147, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Florida, June 2026"}, "range": [0.057, 0.229], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1536, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Florida, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.077, 0.307], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Florida Power & Light Co", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Sarasota County, FL -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 2 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Florida Power & Light Co (#6452), Sarasota County County rows, FL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "Peace River Electric Coop, Inc (57,589 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Florida Power & Light Co (#6452), Sarasota County County rows, FL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1371, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Florida Power & Light Co, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Florida Power & Light Co: residential revenue of $9,720,848.0 thousand against 70,926,801 MWh sold. (9,720,848.0 x 1,000 dollars) / (70,926,801 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1371 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.069, 0.274], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1075, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Florida Power & Light Co: commercial revenue of $5,758,038.0 thousand against 53,585,736 MWh sold, so $0.1075 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.054, 0.215], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "SARASOTA BRADENTON AP, FL US (USW00012871), 4.5 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00012871", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00012871.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SARASOTA BRADENTON AP, FL US (USW00012871), 4.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 74.1, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00012871: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 74.1F.", "source": null, "range": [59.1, 89.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 62.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00012871", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00012871.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SARASOTA BRADENTON AP, FL US (USW00012871), 4.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [47.4, 77.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 83.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "August is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00012871", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00012871.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SARASOTA BRADENTON AP, FL US (USW00012871), 4.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [68.4, 98.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 49.05, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00012871: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 49.05 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [24.5, 88.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 112.6, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USW00012871: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 112.6 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 0.0, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00080945, 7.9 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station BRADENTON 5 ESE, FL US (USC00080945), 7.9 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 0.0 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 0.0, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00080945", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00080945.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BRADENTON 5 ESE, FL US (USC00080945), 7.9 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.844, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Sarasota, FL, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: total population 56,970, of whom 8,889 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (56,970 - 8,889) / 56,970 = 0.8440.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 72105, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Sarasota, FL. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US1264175, B19013_E001"}, "range": [36052, 144210], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0672, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Sarasota, FL with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: 25,751 occupied households, of which 405 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 1,326 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (405 + 1,326) / 25,751 = 0.0672, or 6.7%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.7148, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: 17,901 of 25,045 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.7148, or 71.48%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0096, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: 241 of 25,045 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0096, or 0.96%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0017, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: 42 of 25,045 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0017, or 0.17%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.1335, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: 3,343 of 25,045 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.1335, or 13.35%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 20.7, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Sarasota, FL. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US1264175: 450,055 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 21,702 workers who did not work from home = 20.7 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 15.69, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL', 1,380 people employed in it: median hourly wage $15.69. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 15.69 / 16.96 = 0.925.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 35840 -- North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL"}, "range": [9.41, 28.24], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 15.69, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL are paid a median of $15.69 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 1,380 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 93% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.925, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL' is $15.69 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 15.69 / 16.96 = 0.925. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 1.192, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $1,684 a month in Sarasota, FL (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 1684 / 1413 = 1.192.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 32, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.925 = $32.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [13, 81], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 67, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.925 = $67.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [27, 168], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 140, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.925 = $140.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [56, 350], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 1520, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 1.192 = $1,520 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [608, 4559], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 499, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,863.82 in FL against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1863.82 / 1281.60 = 1.454. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 1.454 = $499 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [200, 1497], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1863.82, "unit": "$/year", "note": "FL average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 424, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$499 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $424. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [170, 1272], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.0961, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Florida Power & Light GST-1 small-commercial time-of-use all-in off-peak (base energy + fuel + conservation + capacity + environmental + storm-protection − 2026 transition credit). Midnight–06:00 is off-peak every day on GST-1 and on residential rider RTR-1. Demand must stay under 25 kW; a DCFC site would leave GST-1.", "math": "From FPL GST-1 (tariff section 8 / business-rates insert effective January 2026): 5.086¢ base energy + 3.104¢ off-peak fuel + 0.144¢ conservation + 0.050¢ capacity + 0.331¢ environmental + 0.927¢ storm protection − 0.031¢ 2026 transition credit (former-FPL territory, including Sarasota) = 9.611¢/kWh = $0.09611. Excludes the one-month 2025 Interim Storm Restoration Recovery Refund of (0.804)¢ on GST-1, which the tariff says lasts one month only — including it would understate the ongoing rate. Also excludes municipal franchise fee and Florida gross-receipts/utility taxes, so a billed kWh runs a few percent higher. Inputs: https://www.fpl.com/rates/pdf/electric-tariff-section8.pdf and https://www.fpl.com/content/dam/fplgp/us/en/rates/pdf/bus-eff-jan-2026.pdf NOTE: this was worked out from 'Average visiting party size', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.16], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.1245, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "FPL has no mid-peak period — only on-peak and off-peak — so 06:00–16:00 is a mix, not a published tariff bucket. This is a weekday-weighted blend of GST-1 all-in on-peak and off-peak for that clock window.", "math": "Weekdays put 4 of the 10 hours in 06:00–16:00 on-peak in both seasons (summer 12:00–16:00; winter 06:00–10:00); weekends and the six listed holidays are all off-peak. Using ~70% weekday non-holiday days, on-peak share = 0.70 × 0.40 = 0.28. Blend = 0.28 × 0.1976 + 0.72 × 0.0961 = 0.0553 + 0.0692 = 0.1245. Likely a bit high if charging is weekend-heavy.", "source": null, "range": [0.06, 0.22], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["power_offpeak", "power_onpeak"], "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "On-peak electricity", "value": 0.1976, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "FPL GST-1 all-in on-peak (same riders as off-peak). FPL’s actual on-peak is weekdays noon–9pm ET April–October and 6–10am plus 6–10pm ET November–March, not 16:00–24:00; after 9pm/10pm and all weekends are off-peak. This is the rate charged during designated on-peak hours.", "math": "GST-1 on-peak: 14.906¢ base energy + 3.428¢ on-peak fuel + 0.144¢ conservation + 0.050¢ capacity + 0.331¢ environmental + 0.927¢ storm protection − 0.031¢ transition credit = 19.755¢/kWh = $0.19755. Same exclusions as off-peak (one-month storm refund, franchise, taxes). A 16:00–24:00 session is only partly on-peak. Inputs: https://www.fpl.com/rates/pdf/electric-tariff-section8.pdf and https://www.fpl.com/content/dam/fplgp/us/en/rates/pdf/bus-eff-jan-2026.pdf NOTE: this was worked out from 'Average visiting party size', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [0.12, 0.32], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.39, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Live posted price at the IONNA Rechargery @ Wawa, 5208 University Pkwy, Sarasota, FL 34243 (400 kW DC fast, CCS and NACS). Any hour; page does not split by time of day. Plus tax. FPL EVolution public DCFC in the same city is a higher PSC-approved $0.45/kWh. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "IONNA", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.ionna.com/ev-charging-stations/fl/sarasota/5208-university-pkwy-34243/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "found 0.39 a line or two from 'price per kwh'", "redirected_from": "https://www.ionna.com/rechargery/sarasota-fl-rechargery-wawa-university-pkwy/"}, "range": [0.25, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "IONNA fast charging here", "federal": "the snapshot lists Sarasota, FL Rechargery Relay @ Wawa - University Pkwy (IONNA, 8 fast ports, 5.9 mi)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: GST-1 (small commercial, demand under 25 kW) and RTR-1 (residential rider). Two periods only, no mid-peak. Optional. Overnight midnight–6am is always off-peak.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FPL’s own tariff lists optional GST-1 for general-service accounts under 25 kW and optional residential rider RTR-1, with the same weekday on-peak windows and all other hours off-peak. A small operator can take GST-1 if demand stays under 25 kW; above that the schedule becomes GSDT-1 with demand charges. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Florida Power & Light", "date": "2026-01", "url": "https://www.fpl.com/rates/pdf/electric-tariff-section8.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi services on the ground", "value": "Uber and Lyft run 24/7; Yellow Cab, Night Ride, airport limos (ALD), and county Breeze OnDemand also operate. Supply is thin nights and on the keys — OnDemand ends by 10 p.m. and Lyft itself flags more requests than drivers.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Operator pages confirm Uber and Lyft in the City of Sarasota today; U.S. News names the local taxi brands and Breeze OnDemand. This is a small coastal market, not a dense fleet — Florida preempts local TNC permits, so there is no medallion cap and no published driver count. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://travel.usnews.com/Sarasota_FL/Getting_Around/: the cited page could not be fetched (ReadTimeout: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='travel.usnews.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=45) -- and gave up after 120s of trying). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["Uber only, often unavailable", "Uber+Lyft+taxis with dense 24/7 coverage"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "Yes: Sarasota County Breeze Transit (formerly SCAT) runs buses Monday–Saturday 5 a.m.–11 p.m. and Sundays 7 a.m.–10 p.m.; some routes have no Sunday service. Nothing overnight after 11 p.m., so late trips go to a car or ride-hail.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The county's own 311 knowledge base, updated August 2025, is the operator schedule. Only 0.96% of local workers commute by transit and 6.72% of households have no vehicle, so the 11 p.m. cutoff matters for paid-ride demand. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Sarasota County 311, Breeze Buses", "date": "2025-08", "url": "https://sarasotacountyfl.qscend.com/311/knowledgebase/article/47934", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["no evening or weekend bus", "24-hour frequent bus"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 4.5, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes TNC trip length for Sarasota. The city's 14.703 sq mi land area is the strongest local fact; the 20.7-minute mean commute and county bus trip length are the checks.", "math": "City land area 14.703 sq mi → equivalent-circle radius 2.16 mi. Mean straight-line distance between two random points in a disk is ~1.96 mi; with ~1.4 road circuity that is ~2.7 mi for a purely intra-city hop. Paid rides are not random: Uber lists SRQ at 5 mi from town, St. Armands is ~3 mi, Siesta Key ~6 mi. FDOT's 2025 Transit Handbook (NTD 2024) gives Breeze Transit an average passenger trip of 4.66 mi — same county, including longer Venice/North Port legs, so city-only bus trips would be a bit shorter. 2017 NHTS urban taxicab mean is 5.7 mi; step DOWN from that because this city is small, the mean commute is only 20.7 minutes, and just 0.17% of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail. Blend ~50% local 2.8 mi + 30% visitor in-town 4.5 mi + 20% airport 6 mi ≈ 4.0; round to 4.5 to sit next to the Breeze 4.66 analog. Likely conservative on visitor airport-to-key legs.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 10.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.35, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Stepped from NHTS short-trip shares onto this city's 14.703 sq mi geography. Compact downtown–St. Armands hops pull the share up; SRQ and Siesta Key pull it down.", "math": "Litman's 2009 NHTS tabulation: 41% of all U.S. person trips are 3 miles or less, but 27% of those are walk. Among private-vehicle trips the under-3-mile share is about one-third. TNC rarely serves the sub-mile walk band (minimum fare), which would drop the share toward ~0.25 of 1+ mile motorized trips. Step UP from 0.25 because the city is only 14.7 sq mi (most internal O-D pairs are under 3 miles), 6.72% of households have no vehicle, and visitor downtown/St. Armands hops are short. Step DOWN from 0.41 because airport (5 mi) and Siesta (~6 mi) are over 3 miles. 0.35 sits in the middle. Direction: if the mix is more airport/key than downtown, this is high.", "source": null, "range": [0.15, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.12, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Intra-city trips almost cannot exceed 10 miles in 14.703 sq mi. The leftover is airport-to-south-county, Siesta–SRQ, and the rare Tampa run.", "math": "Same 2009 NHTS tabulation: 24% of all person trips are 10 miles or more — that is national household travel including long commutes. Step DOWN hard: this city's land area cannot produce a 10-mile internal trip, the mean commute is only 20.7 minutes, and only 0.17% of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail. If paid-trip lengths were exponential with mean 4.5 mi, P(>10) = exp(-10/4.5) ≈ 0.11. Breeze's 4.66 mi county mean gives ~0.12. Leave a slice for SRQ–Siesta (~10 mi) and Venice. 0.12. Likely conservative if many visitors ride SRQ–Siesta Key.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.16, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "NHTS all-trip nights are a floor (~6% in this window). Ride-hail here is not a commute mode, buses die at 11 p.m., and visitors plus the hospital 11 p.m. shift add evening demand — but Sarasota's visitor is older, so this is not a 2 a.m. college town.", "math": "FHWA 2022 NHTS Table 8-1 (all person trips): 7–10 p.m. 8.9%, 10 p.m.–1 a.m. 2.0%, 1–6 a.m. 2.2%. Allocating 21:00–22:00 as one-third of 7–10 p.m. (~3.0%) + 22:00–01:00 (2.0%) + 01:00–03:00 as two-fifths of 1–6 a.m. (~0.9%) ≈ 0.06 of household travel. TNC is not that. Local commute by taxi/ride-hail is 0.17% and 13.35% of workers are at home, so daytime commute barely exists in this market. Breeze stops at 11 p.m. (10 p.m. Sunday), so 23:00–05:00 has no bus. Bars, St. Armands/Siesta Village, airport arrivals, and Sarasota Memorial's 11 p.m. shift sit in this window. Step the 0.06 all-trip floor up ~2.5× to 0.16 — above household travel, below a young nightlife city. Direction: conservative if peak-season visitor bar close dominates; high if the older visitor mix is mostly dinner-and-done.", "source": null, "range": [0.06, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 2710700, "unit": "visitors/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Visit Sarasota County's FY 2025 figure (October 1, 2024–September 30, 2025): 2,710,700 visitors to Sarasota County, not the City of Sarasota, and not a calendar year — the CVB does not publish a calendar-year total. Includes paid lodging, friends-and-relatives, and day-trippers. Paid-lodging visitors alone were 1,317,400. City of Sarasota is the core of that visitor economy (downtown, Lido, St. Armands) but the published number is county-wide. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.visitsarasota.com/article/sarasota-county-loves-tourists: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [500000, 5000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.9, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Visit Sarasota County FY 2025 visitor profile: 2.9 people per party for visitors staying in paid accommodations. Couples are 43% of parties; only 15% travel single. A party shares one car, so visitors ≠ rides. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.visitsarasota.com/sites/default/files/2026-02/_VSCFY2025EconomicImpactofTourismReport.pdf: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 7.5, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Visit Sarasota County FY 2025 profile reports 7.5 average days in the county for visitors in paid accommodations staying 30 days or fewer. The CVB labels this 'days'; it is the stay-length they publish. Independent check: 3,086,000 room nights / (1,317,400 paid visitors / 2.9 party size) ≈ 6.8 nights per party, so 7.5 is in the same band. Do not multiply this by the 2.71 million all-visitor count — day-trippers have zero nights. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.visitsarasota.com/sites/default/files/2026-02/_VSCFY2025EconomicImpactofTourismReport.pdf: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 14.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitor_party_size"]}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No public count of commercial Uber/Lyft/taxi trips for the City of Sarasota or Sarasota County. Florida law blocks the local reports other states publish. Zero here means 'none found after the five-source check,' not 'zero rides.'", "math": "Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Florida has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. Fla. Stat. 627.748(17) preempts counties and cities from licensing TNCs or imposing operational reporting; TNCs are 'governed exclusively by state law.' FDOT's Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged Annual Operating Report does list 5,671 TNC trips in Sarasota County in FY 2023/24 — those are coordinated paratransit/TD trips, not commercial Uber/Lyft, so they are not a market total. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: the City deregulated for-hire service and, given the preemption, publishes no TNC trip file; Sarasota County open data has bus routes, not TNC pickups. (3) Airport ground transportation: FlySRQ's statistics page and 2023–2025 Annual Activity Report publish aircraft operations and 4,514,781 airline passengers in calendar 2025, not TNC pickup counts. The ground-transportation page confirms Uber and Lyft staging but gives no volumes. (4) MPO: Sarasota/Manatee MPO LRTP surveys note that under-45 respondents use taxi/Uber/Lyft more than older residents; no trip total. (5) Local reporting quotes Visit Sarasota visitor counts and SRQ passengers, not paid-ride counts. Absence is structural (preemption), not a missed PDF.", "source": null, "range": [0, 20000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City geography type", "value": "multi-district metro", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The 14.7 sq mi city is compact, but a causeway-separated island shopping/beach district (St. Armands/Lido), a downtown arts core, a large hospital on South Tamiami Trail, and a college–airport cluster 4.0 miles north are distinct demand nodes a fleet would station between — not one interchangeable town.", "math": "Equivalent-circle radius from land area is only 2.16 mi, so one car can physically cover the city in 10–15 minutes. Classification is still multi-district because (1) St. Armands/Lido is on keys reached only by the John Ringling Causeway, about 2 miles west of downtown; (2) SRQ and the New College/Ringling College cluster sit 4.0 miles north of centre; (3) Sarasota Memorial is a separate south-Tamiami medical node. East-of-I-75 suburbs (Lakewood Ranch) and Siesta Key are outside city limits and are not counted as city districts. Likely conservative as a metro call — the incorporated city is small; the county around it is the true multi-town metro.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["city_radius_mi"]}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 2.16, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge mileage for the incorporated city; the planning convention is the equivalent-circle radius from the settled Census land area of 14.703 square miles.", "math": "r = sqrt(land area / π) = sqrt(14.703 / 3.14159) = sqrt(4.6804) = 2.16 miles. Direction of uncertainty: the city is elongated north–south along the bay and includes causeway keys, so this understates the real centre-to-edge distance. The settled airport distance is 4.0 straight-line miles from the city centre, which is a better N–S edge; St. Armands is about 2 miles west. Practical fleet radius is closer to 4 mi than 2.16.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 5.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 4, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Four fleet-scale demand districts inside the city limits: downtown/bayfront, the causeway keys, the hospital corridor, and the north college–airport cluster. Downtown’s named micro-districts (Rosemary, Burns Court, Laurel Park) are walkable sub-areas of one district, not separate fleet choices.", "math": "Count = 4. (1) Downtown/bayfront — Main Street, Rosemary, Burns Court, condo core. (2) St. Armands Circle + Lido Key — tourist shopping and Lido Beach, causeway-separated. (3) Sarasota Memorial hospital district on South Tamiami Trail. (4) North Tamiami — Ringling College, New College, Ringling Museum area, SRQ. Not counted: Siesta Key, Lakewood Ranch, Venice, Longboat Key (outside the city). An editor could reasonably use 3 (fold hospital into downtown) or 5 (add south Beneva/Gulf Gate).", "source": null, "range": [2, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["geography_type"]}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named districts", "value": "downtown / bayfront (Main Street, Rosemary, Burns Court); St. Armands Circle and Lido Key across the Ringling Causeway; Sarasota Memorial hospital district on South Tamiami Trail; north Tamiami college–museum–airport cluster (Ringling College, New College, SRQ)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the four demand districts a fleet would actually choose between, using places the city and local guides treat as separate.", "math": "Composed from the City of Sarasota’s St. Armands page (island shopping district, causeway to mainland), St. Armands distance ~2 miles west of downtown, SMH at 1700 S Tamiami Trail, and the north campus/airport cluster 4.0 miles from centre. Downtown micro-districts (Rosemary, Burns Court, Laurel Park, Gillespie Park) are collapsed into one downtown/bayfront district.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport scheduled flights", "value": "About 49 scheduled passenger departures a day to 68 destinations on 10 airlines; busiest is Atlanta (5–6/day, 31/week); Southwest is the largest carrier (~81 takeoffs/week); year-round hubs ATL, CLT, BWI, EWR, MIA, MCO plus many seasonal leisure routes; only scheduled international is Toronto", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "SRQ is a busy leisure/spoke airport, not a two-flights-a-day town; daily departure count and destination mix come from a live schedule compiler (not the airport’s own site, which did not publish a current daily-departure total in text).", "math": "FlightsFrom lists 68 destinations and 10 airlines, Atlanta 31 flights/week which it says is 9% of weekly departures, and Southwest ~81 takeoffs/week. Total weekly departures ≈ 31 / 0.09 = 344, or 344 / 7 ≈ 49 per day. The same page’s Atlanta grid shows 5–6 flights per day (which would imply a higher total if used instead of 31/week); 49/day is the internally consistent figure from the 9% statement. Seasonal Allegiant/Breeze routes mean winter days run higher. Not a hub: no banked connecting complex, one international city (Toronto).", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "Sarasota Memorial Hospital-Sarasota (897 licensed beds; 10,000+ system staff, county’s largest employer); Ringling College of Art and Design (1,666 students); New College of Florida (881) plus ~1,000 USF teach-out students on the former USF Sarasota-Manatee campus; St. Armands Circle (130+ shops) and Lido Beach; Ed Smith Stadium (Orioles spring training); SRQ airport", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the named, sourced trip generators inside or on the edge of the city — hospital, colleges, island retail/beach, spring-training ballpark, and the airport.", "math": "SMH is the flagship 897-bed campus and the county’s largest employer (more than 10,000 system staff). Ringling 1,666 + New College 881 + ~1,000 remaining USF students are the city-campus student bodies. St. Armands is the city’s own island shopping district (130+ stores). Ed Smith Stadium is the Orioles’ spring home in Sarasota (Braves train in North Port, not listed here). Suncoast Technical College (1,116) and Galen nursing (574) sit on Sarasota addresses typically outside the 14.7 sq mi city and are omitted from this string.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital staffed beds", "value": 897, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Sarasota Memorial’s own site calls the Sarasota campus the flagship 897-bed hospital; the FY2024 audited statements break that into 897 licensed beds (722 acute + 60 rehab + 33 NICU + 82 psych) on that campus. That is licensed, not a CMS staffed-bed extract — the hospital’s own published figure for the largest hospital. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Sarasota Memorial Health Care System", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.smh.com/About", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [600, 1200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 3}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 5509, "unit": "students", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Sum of IPEDS-reported enrollment at schools listed in Sarasota plus the ~1,000 USF students still finishing degrees on the campus New College took over in July 2026.", "math": "Ringling College 1,666 (IPEDS 2024) + New College of Florida 881 (2024–25) + Suncoast Technical College 1,116 + Galen Health Institutes-Sarasota 574 + Meridian College 163 + Sarasota School of Massage Therapy 82 + East West College of Natural Medicine 27 = 4,509. Add about 1,000 USF Sarasota-Manatee teach-out students still on campus (WUSF, 30 Jun 2026; earlier in 2026 the campus had more than 1,600). Total 4,509 + 1,000 = 5,509. Direction of uncertainty: USF is “about 1,000,” not an exact headcount; Suncoast (Beneva Road) and Galen (Cattlemen Road) are Sarasota-addressed but sit in the urban area outside the tight 14.7 sq mi city — drop them and the city-core total is 1,666 + 881 + 1,000 = 3,547. State College of Florida (Bradenton, 8,750) is excluded. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Average nights per visiting party', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [2500, 8000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Events that move demand", "value": "Orioles spring training at Ed Smith Stadium (Feb–Mar); Thunder by the Bay motorcycle festival at the Fairgrounds (Feb); Sarasota Film Festival downtown (April); Siesta Key Crystal Classic sand-sculpting (Nov, on Siesta Key just south of the city); July 4 fireworks at Bayfront Park", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Only annual events with a sourced month that actually pull visitors into or through the city; Braves spring training is in North Port and is omitted.", "math": "Months taken from the event pages: Orioles home spring games 20 Feb–21 Mar 2026 at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota; Thunder by the Bay 13–15 Feb 2026 at Sarasota Fairgrounds; Sarasota Film Festival 10–19 Apr 2026 downtown; Crystal Classic 13–16 Nov 2026 on Siesta Key Beach (outside city limits but a major draw for city lodging/dining); July 4 Bayfront Park fireworks. Chalk Festival omitted — some listings still say Sarasota, others say it moved to Venice.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Florida TNC minimum liability", "value": "$50,000/$100,000/$25,000 logged-on; $1 million during a prearranged ride", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Florida’s TNC statute (statewide, including Sarasota) sets two primary-liability floors: $50k per person / $100k per incident / $25k property damage while logged on but not on a prearranged ride, and $1 million combined for death, bodily injury, and property damage while engaged in a prearranged ride, plus PIP and UM/UIM.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Florida Statutes § 627.748 (2026 Florida Statutes, Florida Senate)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2026/627.748", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 4 of the 5 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [25000, 2000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration", "value": "TNC vehicles keep ordinary passenger plates (no commercial registration; cities may not license TNC vehicles). For-hire under 9 passengers: $17 + $1.50 per 100 lb/year.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Fla. Stat. § 627.748(2) says a TNC driver need not register the vehicle as commercial, and § 627.748(17) bars Sarasota from imposing a TNC vehicle license or tax, so TNC cars pay the private-use automobile license tax in § 320.08(2) ($14.50–$32.50/year by weight, plus other statutory add-ons). If the car is plated for-hire instead, § 320.08(6)(a) is $17 flat plus $1.50 per hundredweight for under nine passengers.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Florida Statutes § 320.08 (2026 Florida Statutes, Florida Senate)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2026/320.08", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [15, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 20, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Sarasota’s published monthly downtown permit is $20 for employee parking in downtown garages and lots (Burns Square is the city page that states the dollar amount). This is an employee permit on a waitlist, not a guaranteed public reserved stall; casual parking is hourly ($1–$1.50 on-street, first hour free in city garages).", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Sarasota Parking Division", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.sarasotafl.gov/Our-City/Parking-and-Mobility/Public-Parking/Parking-Lots", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0, 150], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.723, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0672 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.80x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00170 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.65x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.72x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.36, 1.45], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0833, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Sarasota who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.72x: 0.1152 x 0.72 = 0.0833. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0333 to 0.2082, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0333, 0.2082], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.3, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.3, 2.5, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3. The MEDIAN, 2.3, is used; the draws spanned 2.3 to 2.5, a factor of 1.09. With only 0.0672 of households lacking a vehicle and a 20.7-minute mean commute, residents who use ride-hail at all in a month are occasional users and take a small handful of trips.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.7793, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "2,112,417 boardings at SRQ in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 2,710,700 visitors a year = 0.779. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Annual visitors', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [0.39, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "2,112,417 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 2,112,417; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SRQ = 2,112,417 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.2, 0.18, 0.22, 0.24, 0.18. The MEDIAN, 0.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.18 to 0.24, a factor of 1.33. SRQ is only 4.0 miles from the city centre with no rail, so ride-hail is the default for non-renters, but a 7.5-night leisure stay still pushes most air parties into a rental car for the transfer.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 1.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 1.2, 1.3, 1.2, 1.4, 0.8. The MEDIAN, 1.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.8 to 1.4, a factor of 1.75. A 7.5-night stay in a compact 14.703-square-mile city still splits downtown from the keys, so a party averages a bit more than one local ride-hail trip, pulled down by visitors who already have a car.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 1.512, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.779 arriving by air x 0.200 of those hiring a ride = 0.312, plus 1.200 trips in town = 1.512 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.94 to 1.86. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 4183, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 58458 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.844 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0833 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.3 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 2710700 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 2.9 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 1.512 (our estimate). Residents: 58,458 people x 0.844 adults = 49,339 adults; x 0.0833 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 4,110 people; x 2.3 trips each a month = 9,453 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 311 resident rides a day. Visitors: 2,710,700 a year / 2.9 people in a party = 934,724 visiting parties; x 1.512 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 3,872 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 93% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 4,183 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 2,532 rides a day, and at its own high bound 5,598. The 4,183 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Florida has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. Fla. Stat. 627.748(17) preempts counties and cities from licensing TNCs or imposing operational reporting; TNCs are 'governed exclusively by state law.' FDOT's Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged Annual Operating Report does list 5,671 TNC trips in Sarasota County in FY 2023/24 — those are coordinated paratransit/TD trips, not commercial Uber/Lyft, so they are not a market total. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: the City deregulated for-hire service and, given the preemption, publishes no TNC trip file; Sarasota County open data has bus routes, not TNC pickups. (3) Airport ground transportation: FlySRQ's statistics page and 2023–2025 Annual Activity Report publish aircraft operations and 4,514,781 airline passengers in calendar 2025, not TNC pickup counts. The ground-transportation page confirms Uber and Lyft staging but gives no volumes. (4) MPO: Sarasota/Manatee MPO LRTP surveys note that under-45 respondents use taxi/Uber/Lyft more than older residents; no trip total. (5) Local reporting quotes Visit Sarasota visitor counts and SRQ passengers, not paid-ride counts. Absence is structural (preemption), not a missed PDF. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [1046, 16732], "editable": true, "low": 2532, "high": 5598, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Florida has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. Fla. Stat. 627.748(17) preempts counties and cities from licensing TNCs or imposing operational reporting; TNCs are 'governed exclusively by state law.' FDOT's Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged Annual Operating Report does list 5,671 TNC trips in Sarasota County in FY 2023/24 — those are coordinated paratransit/TD trips, not commercial Uber/Lyft, so they are not a market total. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: the City deregulated for-hire service and, given the preemption, publishes no TNC trip file; Sarasota County open data has bus routes, not TNC pickups. (3) Airport ground transportation: FlySRQ's statistics page and 2023–2025 Annual Activity Report publish aircraft operations and 4,514,781 airline passengers in calendar 2025, not TNC pickup counts. The ground-transportation page confirms Uber and Lyft staging but gives no volumes. (4) MPO: Sarasota/Manatee MPO LRTP surveys note that under-45 respondents use taxi/Uber/Lyft more than older residents; no trip total. (5) Local reporting quotes Visit Sarasota visitor counts and SRQ passengers, not paid-ride counts. Absence is structural (preemption), not a missed PDF.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 4183, "our_range_per_day": [1046, 16732]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "58,458 people", "federal": "the note says 58,458; the Census file says Sarasota city 58,458 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Utility is FPL. Do not replace the EIA bundled averages already established. GST-1 all-in figures are sums of tariff line items (January 2026 base energy; billing-adjustment clauses still at these values in the September 2026 tariff PDF). Sarasota is former-FPL territory so the 2026 transition credit (−0.031¢) applies, not the Gulf-side transition charge. Residential RTR-1 is a rider on RS-1 (on-peak energy 14.410¢ and off-peak credit −6.157¢ added to RS-1); first-1,000 kWh all-in is about $0.261 on-peak and $0.052 off-peak including the September storm-restoration refund — cheaper overnight than GST-1, but it is residential. FPL EVolution public DCFC is $0.45/kWh plus tax in 2026 (PSC-approved; FPL lists The Landings Plaza in Sarasota). A third-party tracker showed Tesla Supercharger Clark Road, 5321 Clark Road, Sarasota at $0.59/kWh public / $0.39 member on 2026-09-12. IONNA $0.39 is the operator-posted Sarasota price used here.", "demand": "Visitors_year is Sarasota COUNTY FY 2025 (Oct 1, 2024–Sep 30, 2025), 2,710,700 all visitors (paid lodging + VFR + day-trippers). The CVB does not publish a city-only or calendar-year total; using 2.71M as if it were City of Sarasota calendar-year visitors would overstate city lodging. Paid-accommodation visitors were 1,317,400; party size 2.9 and 7.5 average days apply to paid stays of 30 days or fewer — do not multiply 2.71M × 7.5. City of Sarasota generated 23.84% of county tourist-tax collections in FY25 (county tax collector), a lodging-revenue share not a visitor-count share. Uber operator page (https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/sarasota-fl-us/) states 24/7 availability; Lyft city page (https://www.lyft.com/rider/cities/sarasota-fl) lists Standard/XL/Black and warns high prices mean more requests than drivers. FDOT 2025 Transit Handbook Breeze row used as a local trip-length analog: https://fdotwww.blob.core.windows.net/sitefinity/docs/default-source/transit/documents/2025_transit_hdbk_final_8-5x11_newtables_121625.pdf. NHTS 2022 temporal table: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/2022Summary_of_Travel_Trends_Report.pdf. SRQ annual activity (passengers, no TNC pickups): https://flysrq.com/airport-statistics and https://flysrq.com/sites/default/files/2026-03/Annual%20Activity%20Report%202023-2025.pdf. Statute: https://florida.public.law/statutes/fla._stat._627.748. Established Census facts used as ground: 58,458 residents, 14.703 sq mi, 6.72% no-vehicle households, 20.7 min commute, 0.17% taxi/ride-hail commute, 0.96% transit commute, 13.35% WFH.", "geography": "City vs region: the 14.703 sq mi / 58,458-person city is downtown + Lido/St. Armands/Bird Key + mainland hospital and north college/airport edge. Siesta Key, Longboat Key, Lakewood Ranch, Palmer Ranch, Venice, and North Port are outside the city; treating them as city districts would overstate shape. city_radius_mi is the equivalent-circle figure (2.16 mi) the prompt asked to derive from land area; the settled SRQ distance of 4.0 mi is a better N–S edge. hospital_beds 897 is licensed beds on SMH-Sarasota (hospital’s own number); a CMS staffed-bed directory listed 904 but hid behind a captcha so it is not used. college_enrollment 5,509 includes Suncoast Tech and Galen, which have Sarasota addresses but sit outside the compact city — city-core only (Ringling + New College + USF teach-out) is 3,547. USF Sarasota-Manatee’s campus transferred to New College on 1 Jul 2026; ~1,000 USF students remain on a teach-out. Airport daily departures are derived from FlightsFrom (Atlanta 31/week = 9% of weekly departures → ~49/day), not from srq-airport.com, which did not publish a current daily-departure total in retrievable text. Braves spring training is at CoolToday Park in North Port, not in the city.", "costs": "Insurance is from the 2026 Florida Statutes compilation of § 627.748 (last substantive amendment ch. 2020-87). Senate Bill 632 (2026) would lower coverage on the unoccupied en-route-to-pickup leg from $1 million to $50k/$100k/$25k; it is not law as of this pack. TNC preemption and the no-commercial-plate rule are in the same section (§ 627.748(2) and (17)); the dollar registration schedule is § 320.08. FLHSMV’s fee page (https://www.flhsmv.gov/fees/) restates the same for-hire base tax and adds a $225 initial-registration fee when there is no Florida plate to transfer. Downtown $20 is the city’s employee monthly permit; a March 2026 Observer write-up of a City Commission meeting also lists downtown employee permits at $20 and resident overnight garage permits at $100, which the commission declined to raise."}, "gaps": ["power_offpeak: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitor_party_size', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "power_onpeak: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitor_party_size', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "college_enrollment: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitor_nights_avg', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "visitor_air_arrival_share: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitors_year', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 27, "derived": 30, "estimated": 23}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 27, "primary": 21, "secondary": 6, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 53, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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"", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2026/627.748", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 4 of the 5 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2026/320.08", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.sarasotafl.gov/Our-City/Parking-and-Mobility/Public-Parking/Parking-Lots", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1812.1}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "sarasota-fl", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.2, "draws": [0.2, 0.18, 0.22, 0.24, 0.18], "min": 0.18, "max": 0.24, "spread_x": 1.33}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 1.2, "draws": [1.2, 1.3, 1.2, 1.4, 0.8], "min": 0.8, "max": 1.4, "spread_x": 1.75}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.3, "draws": [2.3, 2.5, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3], "min": 2.3, "max": 2.5, "spread_x": 1.09}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [2532, 5598]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: Florida has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. Fla. Stat. 627.748(17) preempts counties and cities from licensing TNCs or imposing operational reporting; TNCs are 'governed exclusively by state law.' FDOT's Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged Annual Operating Report does list 5,671 TNC trips in Sarasota County in FY 2023/24 — those are coordinated paratransit/TD trips, not commercial Uber/Lyft, so they are not a market total. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: the City deregulated for-hire service and, given the preemption, publishes no TNC trip file; Sarasota County open data has bus routes, not TNC pickups. (3) Airport ground transportation: FlySRQ's statistics page and 2023–2025 Annual Activity Report publish aircraft operations and 4,514,781 airline passengers in calendar 2025, not TNC pickup counts. The ground-transportation page confirms Uber and Lyft staging but gives no volumes. (4) MPO: Sarasota/Manatee MPO LRTP surveys note that under-45 respondents use taxi/Uber/Lyft more than older residents; no trip total. (5) Local reporting quotes Visit Sarasota visitor counts and SRQ passengers, not paid-ride counts. Absence is structural (preemption), not a missed PDF.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 4183, "our_range_per_day": [1046, 16732]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Sarasota, 27 are published figures, 30 are worked out from published figures, and 23 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [27.338257, -82.543721], "geoid": "1264175", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Sarasota city", "population": 58458, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Sarasota County", "population": 479958, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 20, "dcfc_ports": 86, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "Selby Gardens", "network": "FPLEV", "ports": 4, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.7, "open_date": "2025-08-22"}, {"name": "Sarasota Ford", "network": "Non-Networked", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.0, "open_date": "2013-04-01"}, {"name": "Sarasota Ford", "network": "FORD_CHARGE", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.0, "open_date": "2025-06-09"}, {"name": "Florida Power & Light - EVolution - The Landings Plaza", "network": "FPLEV", "ports": 6, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 3.9, "open_date": "2021-04-02"}, {"name": "Sarasota, FL - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 20, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 5.9, "open_date": "2017-08-18"}, {"name": "Sarasota, FL Rechargery Relay @ Wawa - University Pkwy", "network": "IONNA", "ports": 8, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 5.9, "open_date": "2026-07-25"}, {"name": "Taubman University Town Center (Sarasota, FL)", "network": "Electrify America", "ports": 6, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 6.5, "open_date": "2023-06-22"}, {"name": "BMW SARASOTA FAST CHARGE 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 6.6, "open_date": "2024-04-20"}, {"name": "BMW SARASOTA FAST CHARGE 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 6.6, "open_date": "2024-04-20"}, {"name": "Sarasota, FL - Clark Road - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 6.8, "open_date": "2022-05-27"}, {"name": "7Charge - Sarasota 21045", "network": "7CHARGE", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.2, "open_date": "2022-07-08"}, {"name": "FPL EVOLUTION LOCKWOOD 05", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 7.6, "open_date": "2026-08-01"}, {"name": "FPL EVOLUTION LOCKWOOD 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.7, "open_date": "2022-11-18"}, {"name": "FPL EVOLUTION LOCKWOOD 06", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 7.7, "open_date": "2022-11-18"}, {"name": "FPL EVOLUTION LOCKWOOD 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.7, "open_date": "2022-11-18"}, {"name": "FPL EVOLUTION LOCKWOOD 4", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.7, "open_date": "2022-11-18"}, {"name": "FPL EVOLUTION LOCKWOOD 5", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 7.7, "open_date": "2024-10-02"}, {"name": "Wawa Bradenton #5203", "network": "eVgo Network", "ports": 4, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 7.8, "open_date": "2024-12-14"}, {"name": "Bradenton, FL Rechargery @ Wawa - 14th St W", "network": "IONNA", "ports": 10, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.8, "open_date": "2025-11-08"}, {"name": "Center Point Medical Center", "network": "FPLEV", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.9, "open_date": "2025-08-22"}], "l2_sites": 102, "l2_ports": 236, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "Selby Gardens", "network": "FPLEV", "ports": 4, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.7, "city": "Sarasota", "state": "FL"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 7, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 5, "claims": 12, "records_touched": 8, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "IONNA fast charging here", "claim_text": "Live posted price at the IONNA Rechargery @ Wawa, 5208 University Pkwy, Sarasota, FL 34243 (400 kW DC fast, CCS and NACS).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Sarasota, FL Rechargery Relay @ Wawa - University Pkwy (IONNA, 8 fast ports, 5.9 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "FPL EVolution fast charging here", "claim_text": "FPL EVolution public DCFC in the same city is a higher PSC-approved $0.45/kWh.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Selby Gardens (FPLEV, 4 fast ports, 0.7 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Sarasota Memorial Hospital-Sarasota (897 licensed beds;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Sarasota Memorial’s own site calls the Sarasota campus the flagship 897-bed hospital;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "the FY2024 audited statements break that into 897 licensed beds (722 acute + 60 rehab + 33 NICU + 82 psych) on that campus.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "That is licensed, not a CMS staffed-bed extract — the hospital’s own published figure for the largest hospital.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "2,112,417 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "2,112,417 boardings at SRQ in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 2,710,700 visitors a year = 0.779.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 2,112,417; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SRQ = 2,112,417 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "58,458 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 58,458 people x 0.844 adults = 49,339 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 58,458; the Census file says Sarasota city 58,458 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "FPL EVolution fast charging here", "claim_text": "FPL EVolution public DCFC is $0.45/kWh plus tax in 2026 (PSC-approved;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Selby Gardens (FPLEV, 4 fast ports, 0.7 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "A third-party tracker showed Tesla Supercharger Clark Road, 5321 Clark Road, Sarasota at $0.59/kWh public / $0.39 member on 2026-09-12.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Sarasota, FL - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 20 fast ports, 5.9 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "58,458 people", "claim_text": "Established Census facts used as ground: 58,458 residents, 14.703 sq mi, 6.72% no-vehicle households, 20.7 min commute, 0.17% taxi/ride-hail commute, 0.96% transit commute, 13.35% WFH.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 58,458; the Census file says Sarasota city 58,458 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "hospital_beds 897 is licensed beds on SMH-Sarasota (hospital’s own number);", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 4, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 4, "passes_the_same_test_now": 1, "still_fails_the_same_test": 3, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "ridehail_present", "url": "https://travel.usnews.com/Sarasota_FL/Getting_Around/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (ReadTimeout: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='travel.usnews.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=45) -- and gave up after 120s of trying)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 12 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "visitor_nights_avg", "url": "https://www.visitsarasota.com/sites/default/files/2026-02/_VSCFY2025EconomicImpactofTourismReport.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 7.5 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}, {"record": "visitor_party_size", "url": "https://www.visitsarasota.com/sites/default/files/2026-02/_VSCFY2025EconomicImpactofTourismReport.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 2.9 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}, {"record": "visitors_year", "url": "https://www.visitsarasota.com/article/sarasota-county-loves-tourists", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 2,710,700 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}]}}, "ok": true}