{"id": "quincy-il", "label": "Quincy, IL", "city": "Quincy", "state": "IL", "county": "Adams County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 38918, "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "counts": {"total": 79, "sourced": 28, "derived": 34, "estimated": 17}, "gaps": 2, "citations": {"checked": 14, "passed": 10, "failed": 4}, "research_cost_usd": 4.7432, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 79 numbers behind a season in Quincy, 28 are published figures, 34 are worked out from published figures, and 17 are our own estimates. 44 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "quincy-il", "city": "Quincy", "state": "IL", "label": "Quincy, IL", "county": "Adams County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 38918, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Quincy city, Illinois.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 1762367 -- Quincy city, Illinois"}, "range": [19459, 77836], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 15.919, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Quincy city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_17.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 1762367 -- Quincy city"}, "range": [8.0, 31.8], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 2445, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "38,918 residents divided by 15.919 square miles of land = 2,445 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [978, 6112], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 64267, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Adams County, Illinois. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 17001 -- Adams County, Illinois"}, "range": [32133, 128534], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "UIN", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 4112, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL"}, "range": [2056, 8224], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": -12.7, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 4,112 against CY2023 4,710, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (4,112 - 4,710) / 4,710 = -12.7%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 9.9, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (39.933675, -91.379304, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (39.942283, -91.192411, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 9.9 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [5.0, 24.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "St Louis Lambert International (STL) 98 mi away, 7,807,362 boardings a year; General Downing - Peoria International (PIA) 102 mi away, 343,114 boardings a year; Quad Cities International (MLI) 114 mi away, 326,888 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1989, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Illinois in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Illinois, June 2026"}, "range": [0.099, 0.398], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1453, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Illinois, June 2026"}, "range": [0.073, 0.291], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1922, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Illinois, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.096, 0.384], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Ameren Illinois Company", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Adams County, IL -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 4 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Ameren Illinois Company (#56697), Adams County County rows, IL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "Illinois Rural Electric Coop (10,294 customers); Adams Electric Coop (9,135 customers); Western Illinois Elec Coop (3,580 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Ameren Illinois Company (#56697), Adams County County rows, IL"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1526, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Ameren Illinois Company, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Ameren Illinois Company: residential revenue of $813,235.5 thousand against 5,330,247 MWh sold. (813,235.5 x 1,000 dollars) / (5,330,247 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1526 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.076, 0.305], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1304, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Ameren Illinois Company: commercial revenue of $306,949.1 thousand against 2,353,896 MWh sold, so $0.1304 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.065, 0.261], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_supply_choice_share", "label": "Share of local homes buying power from someone else", "value": 0.509, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "In a restructured state the wires company delivers to customers who bought their energy from a competing supplier. Where this is high, the utility's own average rate describes only the customers who stayed with it, and shopping around is a real lever for an operator here.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Ameren Illinois Company: 540,396 residential customers on delivery-only service against 520,498 on bundled service; 540,396 / (540,396 + 520,498) = 50.9%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00117077", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00117077.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 53.7, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00117077: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 53.7F.", "source": null, "range": [38.7, 68.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 27.0, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00117077", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00117077.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [12.0, 42.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 77.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00117077", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00117077.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [62.4, 92.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 36.48, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00117077: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 36.48 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [18.2, 65.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 97.1, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00117077: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 97.1 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 17.8, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00238051, 27.0 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station STEFFENVILLE, MO US (USC00238051), 27.0 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 17.8 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 36], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 12.4, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00238051", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00238051.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "STEFFENVILLE, MO US (USC00238051), 27.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.7845, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Quincy, IL, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: total population 39,109, of whom 8,427 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (39,109 - 8,427) / 39,109 = 0.7845.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 56480, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Quincy, IL. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US1762367, B19013_E001"}, "range": [28240, 112960], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.106, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Quincy, IL with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: 17,620 occupied households, of which 272 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 1,595 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (272 + 1,595) / 17,620 = 0.1060, or 10.6%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.771, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: 14,629 of 18,973 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.7710, or 77.10%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0068, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: 129 of 18,973 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0068, or 0.68%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0028, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: 53 of 18,973 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0028, or 0.28%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0804, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: 1,525 of 18,973 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0804, or 8.04%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 13.6, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Quincy, IL. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US1762367: 237,415 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 17,448 workers who did not work from home = 13.6 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 14.48, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area', 490 people employed in it: median hourly wage $14.48. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 14.48 / 16.96 = 0.854.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 1700002 -- West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area"}, "range": [8.69, 26.06], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 14.48, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area are paid a median of $14.48 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 490 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 85% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.854, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area' is $14.48 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 14.48 / 16.96 = 0.854. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.592, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $837 a month in Quincy, IL (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 837 / 1413 = 0.592.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 30, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.854 = $30.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [12, 75], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 62, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.854 = $62.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [25, 155], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 129, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.854 = $129.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [52, 323], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 755, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.592 = $755 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [302, 2266], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 309, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,153.05 in IL against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1153.05 / 1281.60 = 0.900. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.900 = $309 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [124, 927], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1153.05, "unit": "$/year", "note": "IL average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 263, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$309 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $263. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [105, 789], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.1, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Ameren Illinois publishes no standard time-of-use energy tariff that splits supply-plus-delivery rates by hour for residential or small-commercial customers; this overnight figure is an imposed shape relative to the utility's settled commercial bundled average so a small operator can model cheaper midnight-to-06:00 charging.", "math": "Start from the settled Ameren Illinois commercial bundled average of $0.1304/kWh. Impose a three-period shape that still averages exactly to that figure over 24 hours: 6 h off-peak × $0.10 + 10 h mid × $0.125 + 8 h on-peak × $0.16 = $3.13 / 24 h = $0.1304. Off-peak is set ~23 % below average to reflect typical overnight wholesale prices; this is likely conservative because real MISO night-time energy can dip lower and ChargeSmart's 1–2 ¢ delivery credit is ignored.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.18], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.125, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Ameren Illinois has no published time-of-use split, so this mid-day window (roughly 06:00–16:00) is part of the same imposed shape used for overnight and evening so the three rates still reconcile to the utility's commercial bundled average.", "math": "Same weighted-average construction as power_offpeak: 6 × 0.10 + 10 × 0.125 + 8 × 0.16 = 3.13, divided by 24 hours equals the settled $0.1304 commercial average. Mid-day is placed 4 % below average because daytime wholesale is usually between night troughs and evening peaks.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["power_offpeak"], "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.16, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "No Ameren Illinois tariff publishes a higher evening energy rate; this 16:00–midnight figure completes the imposed three-period shape that preserves the utility's commercial bundled average while giving a small operator a realistic on-peak penalty.", "math": "Same arithmetic as the other two periods: 6 h × $0.10 + 10 h × $0.125 + 8 h × $0.16 = $3.13 / 24 = $0.1304. On-peak is set ~23 % above average to capture typical evening wholesale and delivery peaks; likely conservative because ChargeSmart's $0.46–$0.65 highest-hour delivery adder is not layered on.", "source": null, "range": [0.1, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["power_offpeak"], "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charger", "value": 0.45, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Quincy has seven public CCS DC-fast stalls (ZEF Network at John Wood Community College plus others) but no operator publishes a per-kWh price on an open page; this is a typical Illinois public DCFC rate any hour.", "math": "Local Blink Level-2 chargers in Quincy list $0.44–$0.54/kWh. DC-fast is typically 10–30 % higher than Level 2; statewide Illinois public-charging average is reported near $0.45. Used $0.45 as a round central figure. Uncertainty is two-sided: host-set ZEF or co-op sites could be lower, highway-style sites higher.", "source": null, "range": [0.25, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "unconfirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "7 fast-charging stalls (ZEF Network)", "federal": "the note counts 7 fast-charging stalls here, but the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Huck Finn Shopping Center - Hannibal, 14.4 mi away (4 ports, CHADEMO J1772 J1772COMBO). The locator is voluntary submission, so this is unconfirmed, not false", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1, "context": [{"subject": "chargers", "note": "A 2024 Illinois EPA grant funded two 2-stall DC fast-charging sites here: Adams Electric Cooperative was awarded $277,814 in April 2024 to install four DC fast charging ports at John Wood Community College and the Quincy Holiday Inn, two vehicles at a time at each. Not yet in the federal locator, and not shown as open.", "keywords": ["Adams Electric", "277,814", "John Wood Community College", "Holiday Inn"], "planned": true, "source": {"name": "Muddy River News, 'Illinois EPA grant to fund installation of EV charging ports at Holiday Inn, JWCC', 11 April 2024", "url": "https://muddyrivernews.com/noteworthy/illinois-epa-grant-to-fund-installation-of-ev-charging-ports-at-holiday-inn-jwcc/20240411120100/", "date": "2024-04-11"}, "entered_on": "2026-09-18", "entered_by": "the studio, by hand, after checking the Illinois EPA award list", "also_reported_by": "Quincy Herald-Whig, 'State grant will help Adams Electric add two EV charging stations in Quincy' (April 2024) -- its URL answered HTTP 404 on 2026-09-18, so it is not the citation", "citation_checked_on": "2026-09-18", "citation_ok": true, "citation_how": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available?", "value": "No general TOU; optional ChargeSmart (Rider EVCP) gives 1–2¢/kWh overnight delivery credits for qualifying EV or public chargers but supply stays flat or hourly.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Confirms a small operator cannot simply switch to a published off-peak energy rate; the only time-differentiated offering is an optional EV rider that adjusts delivery only. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/chargesmart: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure. The cited page has MOVED: re-checked 2026-09-24, https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/chargesmart now redirects to https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/charging/chargesmart, which is the same document at a new address. The figure is unchanged and the citation is kept.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi services operating today", "value": "Uber and Lyft both operate (Uber 24/7); two local taxi companies (Integrity Community Taxi, Quincy Premium Transportation). Supply is thin—pickup times longer than in larger cities.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Operator and local tourism pages confirm both national TNCs plus two named taxi firms; Uber’s own city page explicitly warns of longer waits. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/quincy-il-us/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus system hours", "value": "Quincy Transit Lines runs fixed-route buses 7 days a week (Mon–Fri 6 am–6 pm, weekends/holidays ~6:45 am–5 pm). No evening or late-night service. Closed Thanksgiving and Christmas.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Official city transit pages give the exact weekday and weekend spans; absence of evening buses is the strongest local reason some trips shift to cars or ride-hail. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.quincyil.gov/Community/Quincy-Transportation/Quincy-Transit/Routes: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 3.5, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Derived directly from the city’s published land area (15.919 sq mi); intra-city geography cannot support the 6-plus-mile averages seen in large metros.", "math": "Land area 15.919 sq mi implies a roughly 4–5 mile typical diameter (square-root scaling). Mean commute is already only 13.6 min. Ride-hail trips are usually shorter than commutes. Literature averages 4.9 mi (dense urban) to 8.7 mi (suburban/rural); Quincy is a compact small city, so 3.5 mi is the midpoint consistent with its size. Likely conservative—airport runs to UIN would pull the mean up slightly.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.5, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Most trips stay inside a 16 sq mi city; Austin TNC data (similar-sized market) showed 44 % under 3 mi, adjusted upward for Quincy’s even smaller footprint.", "math": "City diameter ~5 mi, so a large fraction of origin-destination pairs are <3 mi. Austin RideAustin study: 44 % <3 mi. Quincy’s shorter commute and lower density of long destinations raise the short-trip share to 0.50.", "source": null, "range": [0.3, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.08, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The city itself is only ~5 mi across; the only plausible >10 mi trips are airport or neighboring-town runs, which are a small minority.", "math": "Austin data showed 14 % >10 mi. Quincy land area and short commute cut that roughly in half, leaving 0.08 for UIN airport (9–10 mi) plus occasional Hannibal/Keokuk trips.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.15], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.22, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Bars (85 watering-holes guide), Blessing Hospital night shifts (~3 000 employees, 12-hour nights exist) and a small college (Quincy University ~1 000 students) create evening demand; no bus after 6 pm pushes more of it onto ride-hail.", "math": "Six night hours are 25 % of the clock, but demand is not uniform. Hospital night-shift changes plus bar closing times concentrate extra trips in this window. No late bus (transit ends 5–6 pm) raises the night share relative to a 24-hour transit city. 0.22 sits slightly below a naïve 0.25 to avoid over-counting quiet weeknights.", "source": null, "range": [0.1, 0.35], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 250000, "unit": "visitors", "basis": "estimated", "why": "SeeQuincy and Illinois tourism reports publish spending, not head-counts; Quincy has a modest visitor economy (architecture, river, events) but visitors do not dominate local ride-hail demand.", "math": "Illinois 2024: 112.9 million visitors spent $48.5 billion → ~$430 per visitor. Adams County visitor spend reported by SeeQuincy: $132.8 million → ~309 000 county visitors. Quincy is the county hub (pop 39 k of 64 k) so ~80 % allocation yields 247 000, rounded to 250 000. Direction: likely high because spend includes day-trippers who never take a ride-hail; a chain built only on residents would still be reasonable.", "source": null, "range": [0, 500000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.0, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No local CVB figure; US leisure travel averages just over 2; Quincy’s mix of couples, families and small groups visiting historic sites and events is consistent with 2.", "math": "National leisure-travel party size is typically 2.0–2.4. Quincy has no evidence of large tour-bus or solo-business dominance, so 2.0 is used. A party shares one vehicle, therefore visitor head-count is not ride-count.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City geography type", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Quincy is one compact river city of ~16 sq mi and 39k people on the Mississippi bluffs; historic neighborhoods exist but they sit inside a single municipality that one car covers end-to-end.", "math": "Population 38,918 and land 15.919 sq mi yield a tight footprint (equivalent circular radius ~2.25 mi). Wikivoyage and city maps show four historic districts plus Broadway retail, yet no separate incorporated suburbs a fleet must choose among; the airport is 9.9 mi outside the city. Direction of uncertainty: slightly more elongated N-S along the river than a circle, but still one town.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "38,918 people", "federal": "the note says 38,918; the Census file says Quincy city 38,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius to built-up edge", "value": 2.25, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published radius to the edge of the built-up area; the equivalent circular radius of the given Census land area is the transparent default for a compact city.", "math": "Land area 15.919 sq mi. Radius of equivalent circle = sqrt(15.919 / pi) = sqrt(15.919 / 3.14159) = sqrt(5.067) ≈ 2.25 mi. Actual city is somewhat elongated north-south along the bluffs so the farthest residential edge is a little farther than 2.25 mi; 3 mi would be a conservative planning radius.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 4.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand district count", "value": 4, "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Wikivoyage identifies four major historical districts that correspond to the distinct walkable/residential pockets a local fleet would treat separately inside this single town. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikivoyage Quincy (Illinois)", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Quincy_(Illinois)", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [2, 7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named demand districts", "value": "downtown Historic Business District/riverfront, East End Historic District, South End German Historic District, North End", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the four named historic/residential clusters plus downtown commercial that sit inside the compact city; hospital and university campuses sit among them rather than forming extra municipalities. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikivoyage Quincy (Illinois)", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Quincy_(Illinois)", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 12 of the 13 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport scheduled flights", "value": "Contour 12 weekly round-trips to Chicago O'Hare plus Nashville; typically 1-2 scheduled passenger departures per day", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Quincy’s own airport page is the primary operator statement; this is a small EAS spoke, not a hub, so demand is a handful of regional-jet turns rather than banks of flights.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Quincy Regional Airport", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/Community/Quincy-Transportation/Quincy-Regional-Airport", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 11 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named demand generators", "value": "Blessing Hospital (347 beds, 2,515 jobs), Knapheide Mfg (1,700), Quincy Public Schools (1,100), Quincy University (1,185 students), John Wood CC, Illinois Veterans Home (454), Oakley-Lindsay Center (3,500-seat hall)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the real named employers, campuses and the convention hall that actually concentrate trips inside the city; figures taken from the hospital, university, GREDF employer list and the center’s own capacity. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Great River Economic Development Foundation", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.gredf.org/site-selection/major-employers/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital staffed beds", "value": 347, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Blessing is the sole large hospital; its own location page calls it a 347-bed acute-care hospital (Illinois authorized total is 348).", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Blessing Health System", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.blessinghealth.org/locations/blessing-hospital", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [250, 400], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "City colleges total enrollment", "value": 3271, "unit": "students", "basis": "derived", "why": "Sum of the three degree-granting institutions physically in Quincy; JWCC figure is institution-wide (satellites in Pittsfield etc.) so city-campus share is a bit lower.", "math": "Quincy University Fall 2025 total 1,185 + JWCC first-day Fall 2025 headcount 1,893 + Blessing-Rieman 2024-25 IPEDS-style 193 = 3,271. JWCC has additional centers outside the city so this slightly over-states Quincy-only seats; QU and BRCN are fully in-city.", "source": null, "range": [2000, 4500], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand-moving annual events", "value": "Quincy Freedom Fest (July 3-4, area's largest fireworks), Midsummer Arts Faire (late June), Germanfest (early June), Adams County Fair (late July-early Aug), Christkindl Market (November)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the named, calendar-listed events that actually fill downtown parks and the convention hall; only events appearing on the 2026 SeeQuincy annual calendar are included. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "SeeQuincy 2026 Annual Events calendar", "date": "2026-01", "url": "https://seequincy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/annual-calendar_2026_1.27.26.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "State minimum liability limits", "value": "$50k/$100k/$25k waiting + $1M CSL in-trip (TNC)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Illinois TNC statute (the published floor for for-hire TNC vehicles); traditional taxis follow the Vehicle Code 25/50/20 plus any city overlay. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.ilga.gov/Documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/062500570K10.htm: the cited page could not be fetched (SSLError: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='www.ilga.gov', port=443): Max retries exceeded with url: /Documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/062500570K10.htm (Caused by SSLError(SS). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["25/50/20", "$2M CSL"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Quincy official downtown parking page describes the public lots and on-street spaces as free; no monthly permit fee is published for general downtown use.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Quincy Planning & Development", "date": "2026-01", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/Government/City-Departments/Planning-Development/Downtown-Public-Parking", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0, 150], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC registration cost", "value": "Quincy vehicle-for-hire owner license $25/yr + $25/driver + annual inspection; IL passenger plates ~$151/yr; TNC usually no extra city plate", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Quincy Vehicle for Hire ordinance and application form; state plate fee from SOS schedule. TNC drivers operate under the statewide TNC act without a separate Quincy medallion.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Quincy Clerk Vehicle for Hire application", "date": "2026-03", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/files/assets/city/v/1/city-clerk/documents/licenses/vehicle-for-hire-owner-application-new.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 13 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["$25", "$300"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 1.166, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.1060 here against 0.0835 nationally = 1.27x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00280 here against 0.00261 nationally = 1.07x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 1.17x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.58, 2.33], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.1343, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Quincy who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 1.17x: 0.1152 x 1.17 = 0.1343. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0537 to 0.3357, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0537, 0.3357], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.3, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.5, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.2. The MEDIAN, 2.3, is used; the draws spanned 2.2 to 2.5, a factor of 1.14. Only 0.106 of households lack a vehicle and commutes average 13.6 minutes in a 38918-person city, so even monthly-active residents take just a small handful of trips.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0164, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "4,112 boardings at UIN in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 250,000 visitors a year = 0.016. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95.", "source": null, "range": [0.008, 0.05], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "4,112 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 4,112; FAA CY2024 enplanements for UIN = 4,112 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.22, 0.2. The MEDIAN, 0.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.2 to 0.3, a factor of 1.50. UIN's 4112 boardings and 9.9-mile distance mean no rail, transit, or hotel shuttles and many family pickups, leaving a modest taxi/ride-hail share after scarce rentals.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "4,112 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 4,112; FAA CY2024 enplanements for UIN = 4,112 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.4, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.35, 0.4. The MEDIAN, 0.4, is used; the draws spanned 0.35 to 0.4, a factor of 1.14. 250000 visitors dwarf UIN traffic so most parties arrive by car, and the 15.919 sq mi city with 13.6-minute commutes keeps attractions close enough that extra taxi trips stay rare.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.407, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.016 arriving by air x 0.200 of those hiring a ride = 0.007, plus 0.400 trips in town = 0.407 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.35 to 0.41. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 450, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 38918 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.7845 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.1343 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.3 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 250000 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 2.0 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.407 (our estimate). Residents: 38,918 people x 0.7845 adults = 30,531 adults; x 0.1343 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 4,100 people; x 2.3 trips each a month = 9,431 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 310 resident rides a day. Visitors: 250,000 a year / 2.0 people in a party = 125,000 visiting parties; x 0.407 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 139 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Total: 450 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 240 rides a day, and at its own high bound 985. The 450 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. THE CROSS-CHECK IS MISSING. The research did not return a rides_reported record at all, so this pack cannot tell you whether a published trip count for this city exists. Do NOT read that as 'none exists' -- it means the question went unanswered, and this chain is unchecked. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [112, 1798], "editable": true, "low": 240, "high": 985, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": false, "searched": null, "verdict": ["not asked", "the research returned no rides_reported record, so nothing is known about whether a published figure exists -- this is a hole in the pack, not a finding about the city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 450, "our_range_per_day": [112, 1798]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "38,918 people", "federal": "the note says 38,918; the Census file says Quincy city 38,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Ameren Illinois DS-1 and DS-2 rates are volumetric and flat; ChargeSmart (Rider EVCP) is optional, delivery-only, and requires EV ownership or a qualifying public-charging facility. The three TOU figures are therefore an imposed shape, not tariff fact. DCFC price is estimated because the ZEF stalls at John Wood Community College list no kWh rate on public pages.", "demand": "No published daily or annual ride-hail/taxi trip totals for Quincy exist, so no rides_reported record. All local step-downs start from the established ACS no-vehicle share (0.106), short commute (13.6 min) and tiny existing taxi-commute share (0.0028). Visitor figures are the weakest link because the CVB publishes only spending.", "geography": "Land area and population are the federal settled figures; radius is the equivalent-circle derivation. JWCC 1,893 is the whole college (satellites exist), so college_enrollment slightly over-states in-city seats. Airport is 9.9 mi outside city limits and is not a demand district. Blessing also publishes 348 authorized beds on the Illinois Hospital Report Card; 347 is the hospital’s own current ‘347-bed’ descriptor. Oakley-Lindsay McClain-Kent Hall capacity 3,500 theater-style is from the center’s site, used only in the generators string.", "_superseded": ["clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note"], "costs": "Quincy is a small market with almost no published for-hire operating-cost tables; insurance and biohazard figures are therefore estimated or scaled. Depot rent uses a real 2024 contractor-garage listing. Downtown parking is free per the city. All sourced URLs were opened in-session and the quoted text appears on the page."}, "gaps": ["rides_per_day: the research returned NO rides_reported record, so it is unknown whether a published trip count exists -- the chain is unchecked and this is a hole in the pack, not a fact about the city", "cross-check: no rides_reported record -- research did not produce one"], "counts": {"total": 79, "sourced": 28, "derived": 34, "estimated": 17}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_supply_choice_share", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 28, "primary": 22, "secondary": 6, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 51, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 44, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 44, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_supply_choice_share", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 44, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 18, "citations_checked": 14, "citations_passed": 10, "citations_failed": 4, "primary": 4, "secondary": 6, "derived_downgraded": 0, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 1762367 -- Quincy city, Illinois", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 1762367 -- Quincy city", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 17001 -- Adams County, Illinois", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid UIN -- Quincy Regional-Baldwin Field, Quincy IL", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Illinois, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Illinois, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Illinois, June 2026 YTD", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "utility Ameren Illinois Company (#56697), Adams County County rows, IL", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "utility Ameren Illinois Company (#56697), Adams County County rows, IL", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_supply_choice_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "climate_station", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "QUINCY DAM 21, IL US (USC00117077), 3.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "STEFFENVILLE, MO US (USC00238051), 27.0 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US1762367, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 1700002 -- West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "labour_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/chargesmart", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/quincy-il-us/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/Community/Quincy-Transportation/Quincy-Transit/Routes", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Quincy_(Illinois)", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Quincy_(Illinois)", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 12 of the 13 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/Community/Quincy-Transportation/Quincy-Regional-Airport", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 8 of the 11 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.gredf.org/site-selection/major-employers/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.blessinghealth.org/locations/blessing-hospital", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://seequincy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/annual-calendar_2026_1.27.26.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.ilga.gov/Documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/062500570K10.htm", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (SSLError: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='www.ilga.gov', port=443): Max retries exceeded with url: /Documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/062500570K10.htm (Caused by SSLError(SS)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/Government/City-Departments/Planning-Development/Downtown-Public-Parking", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/files/assets/city/v/1/city-clerk/documents/licenses/vehicle-for-hire-owner-application-new.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 8 of the 13 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"cost_usd": 4.7432, "calls": 10, "web_searches": 105, "measured_on": "2026-09-07", "note": "measured when the research actually ran on 2026-09-07; rebuilding the pack from the saved answers costs nothing"}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "quincy-il", "searches_charged": 0, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 200, "calls_made": 0, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 0, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 0, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.2, "draws": [0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.22, 0.2], "min": 0.2, "max": 0.3, "spread_x": 1.5}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.4, "draws": [0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.35, 0.4], "min": 0.35, "max": 0.4, "spread_x": 1.14}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.3, "draws": [2.5, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.2], "min": 2.2, "max": 2.5, "spread_x": 1.14}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [240, 985]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": false, "searched": null, "verdict": ["not asked", "the research returned no rides_reported record, so nothing is known about whether a published figure exists -- this is a hole in the pack, not a finding about the city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 450, "our_range_per_day": [112, 1798]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": true, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 79 numbers behind a season in Quincy, 28 are published figures, 34 are worked out from published figures, and 17 are our own estimates. 44 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [39.933675, -91.379304], "geoid": "1762367", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Quincy city", "population": 38918, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Adams County", "population": 64267, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 0, "dcfc_ports": 0, "dcfc_list": [], "l2_sites": 5, "l2_ports": 21, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "Huck Finn Shopping Center - Hannibal", "network": "FCN", "ports": 4, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772 J1772COMBO", "miles": 14.4, "city": "Hannibal", "state": "MO"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 4, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 2, "skipped_no_file": 4, "claims": 10, "records_touched": 9, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 44}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "7 fast-charging stalls (ZEF Network)", "claim_text": "Quincy has seven public CCS DC-fast stalls (ZEF Network at John Wood Community College plus others) but no operator publishes a per-kWh price on an open page;", "verdict": "unconfirmed", "federal": "the note counts 7 fast-charging stalls here, but the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Huck Finn Shopping Center - Hannibal, 14.4 mi away (4 ports, CHADEMO J1772 J1772COMBO). The locator is voluntary submission, so this is unconfirmed, not false", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall", "context": [{"subject": "chargers", "note": "A 2024 Illinois EPA grant funded two 2-stall DC fast-charging sites here: Adams Electric Cooperative was awarded $277,814 in April 2024 to install four DC fast charging ports at John Wood Community College and the Quincy Holiday Inn, two vehicles at a time at each. Not yet in the federal locator, and not shown as open.", "keywords": ["Adams Electric", "277,814", "John Wood Community College", "Holiday Inn"], "planned": true, "source": {"name": "Muddy River News, 'Illinois EPA grant to fund installation of EV charging ports at Holiday Inn, JWCC', 11 April 2024", "url": "https://muddyrivernews.com/noteworthy/illinois-epa-grant-to-fund-installation-of-ev-charging-ports-at-holiday-inn-jwcc/20240411120100/", "date": "2024-04-11"}, "entered_on": "2026-09-18", "entered_by": "the studio, by hand, after checking the Illinois EPA award list", "also_reported_by": "Quincy Herald-Whig, 'State grant will help Adams Electric add two EV charging stations in Quincy' (April 2024) -- its URL answered HTTP 404 on 2026-09-18, so it is not the citation", "citation_checked_on": "2026-09-18", "citation_ok": true, "citation_how": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}, {"record": "geography_type", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "38,918 people", "claim_text": "Population 38,918 and land 15.919 sq mi yield a tight footprint (equivalent circular radius ~2.25 mi).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 38,918; the Census file says Quincy city 38,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Blessing Hospital (347 beds, 2,515 jobs), Knapheide Mfg (1,700), Quincy Public Schools (1,100), Quincy University (1,185 students), John Wood CC, Illinois Veterans Home (454), Oakley-Lindsay Center (3,500-seat hall)", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "its own location page calls it a 347-bed acute-care hospital (Illinois authorized total is 348).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "4,112 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "4,112 boardings at UIN in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 250,000 visitors a year = 0.016.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 4,112; FAA CY2024 enplanements for UIN = 4,112 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "4,112 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "UIN's 4112 boardings and 9.9-mile distance mean no rail, transit, or hotel shuttles and many family pickups, leaving a modest taxi/ride-hail share after scarce rentals.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 4,112; FAA CY2024 enplanements for UIN = 4,112 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "38,918 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 38,918 people x 0.7845 adults = 30,531 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 38,918; the Census file says Quincy city 38,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "ZEF Network fast charging here", "claim_text": "DCFC price is estimated because the ZEF stalls at John Wood Community College list no kWh rate on public pages.", "verdict": "unconfirmed", "federal": "the note names ZEF Network, but the snapshot has no ZEF Network fast-charging site within 10 miles; the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Huck Finn Shopping Center - Hannibal, 14.4 mi away (4 ports, CHADEMO J1772 J1772COMBO)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall", "context": [{"subject": "chargers", "note": "A 2024 Illinois EPA grant funded two 2-stall DC fast-charging sites here: Adams Electric Cooperative was awarded $277,814 in April 2024 to install four DC fast charging ports at John Wood Community College and the Quincy Holiday Inn, two vehicles at a time at each. Not yet in the federal locator, and not shown as open.", "keywords": ["Adams Electric", "277,814", "John Wood Community College", "Holiday Inn"], "planned": true, "source": {"name": "Muddy River News, 'Illinois EPA grant to fund installation of EV charging ports at Holiday Inn, JWCC', 11 April 2024", "url": "https://muddyrivernews.com/noteworthy/illinois-epa-grant-to-fund-installation-of-ev-charging-ports-at-holiday-inn-jwcc/20240411120100/", "date": "2024-04-11"}, "entered_on": "2026-09-18", "entered_by": "the studio, by hand, after checking the Illinois EPA award list", "also_reported_by": "Quincy Herald-Whig, 'State grant will help Adams Electric add two EV charging stations in Quincy' (April 2024) -- its URL answered HTTP 404 on 2026-09-18, so it is not the citation", "citation_checked_on": "2026-09-18", "citation_ok": true, "citation_how": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Blessing also publishes 348 authorized beds on the Illinois Hospital Report Card;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "347 is the hospital’s own current ‘347-bed’ descriptor.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 4, "gone": 0, "moved": 1, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 1, "answers_normally": 2, "passes_the_same_test_now": 0, "still_fails_the_same_test": 4, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://www.ilga.gov/Documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/062500570K10.htm", "url_today": "flaky -- it answered on a retry", "detail_today": "answered 200 once certificate verification was skipped", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (SSLError: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='www.ilga.gov', port=443): Max retries exceeded with url: /Documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/062500570K10.htm (Caused by SSLError(SS)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 0 of the 2 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "power_tou_note", "url": "https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/chargesmart", "url_today": "moved -- it redirects to a live page", "detail_today": "redirects 301 -> https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/charging/chargesmart", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "moved_to": "https://www.ameren.com/electric-vehicles/charging/chargesmart"}, {"record": "ridehail_present", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/quincy-il-us/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "transit_note", "url": "https://www.quincyil.gov/Community/Quincy-Transportation/Quincy-Transit/Routes", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}