{"id": "presidio-tx", "label": "Presidio, TX", "city": "Presidio", "state": "TX", "county": "Presidio County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 2909, "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "counts": {"total": 74, "sourced": 26, "derived": 27, "estimated": 21}, "gaps": 5, "citations": {"checked": 13, "passed": 12, "failed": 1}, "research_cost_usd": 5.2992, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 74 numbers behind a season in Presidio, 26 are published figures, 27 are worked out from published figures, and 21 are our own estimates. 37 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "presidio-tx", "city": "Presidio", "state": "TX", "label": "Presidio, TX", "county": "Presidio County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 2909, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Presidio city, Texas.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 4859396 -- Presidio city, Texas"}, "range": [1454, 5818], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 2.575, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Presidio city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_48.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-08", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 4859396 -- Presidio city"}, "range": [1.3, 5.2], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 1130, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "2,909 residents divided by 2.575 square miles of land = 1,130 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [452, 2825], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 5433, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Presidio County, Texas. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 48377 -- Presidio County, Texas"}, "range": [2716, 10866], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1594, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Texas in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Texas, June 2026"}, "range": [0.08, 0.319], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.0866, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Texas, June 2026"}, "range": [0.043, 0.173], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1611, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Texas, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.081, 0.322], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Rio Grande Electric Coop, Inc", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Presidio County, TX -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 2 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Rio Grande Electric Coop, Inc (#16057), Presidio County County rows, TX"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "AEP Texas North Company (0 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Rio Grande Electric Coop, Inc (#16057), Presidio County County rows, TX"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1851, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Rio Grande Electric Coop, Inc, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Rio Grande Electric Coop, Inc: residential revenue of $19,215.6 thousand against 103,812 MWh sold. (19,215.6 x 1,000 dollars) / (103,812 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1851 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.093, 0.37], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.142, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Rio Grande Electric Coop, Inc: commercial revenue of $18,733.0 thousand against 131,929 MWh sold, so $0.1420 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.071, 0.284], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00417262", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00417262.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 71.5, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00417262: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 71.5F.", "source": null, "range": [56.5, 86.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 50.9, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00417262", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00417262.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [35.9, 65.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 88.5, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "June is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00417262", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00417262.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [73.5, 103.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 8.92, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00417262: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 8.92 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [4.5, 16.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 30.9, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00417262: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 30.9 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 0.0, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00417262, 0.8 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 0.0 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 0.0, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00417262", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00417262.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.6491, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Presidio, TX, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: total population 3,163, of whom 1,110 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (3,163 - 1,110) / 3,163 = 0.6491.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 40800, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Presidio, TX. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US4859396, B19013_E001"}, "range": [20400, 81600], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0394, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Presidio, TX with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: 1,066 occupied households, of which 42 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 0 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (42 + 0) / 1,066 = 0.0394, or 3.9%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.8508, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: 810 of 952 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.8508, or 85.08%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: 0 of 952 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: 0 of 952 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: 0 of 952 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 11.5, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Presidio, TX. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US4859396: 10,915 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 952 workers who did not work from home = 11.5 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 12.56, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area', 660 people employed in it: median hourly wage $12.56. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 12.56 / 16.96 = 0.741.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 4800001 -- Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area"}, "range": [7.54, 22.61], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 12.56, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area are paid a median of $12.56 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 660 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 74% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.741, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area' is $12.56 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 12.56 / 16.96 = 0.741. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.306, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $433 a month in Presidio, TX (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 433 / 1413 = 0.306.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 26, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.741 = $26.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [10, 65], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 54, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.741 = $54.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [21, 134], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 112, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.741 = $112.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [45, 280], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 391, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.306 = $391 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [156, 1172], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 382, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,428.94 in TX against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1428.94 / 1281.60 = 1.115. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 1.115 = $382 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [153, 1146], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1428.94, "unit": "$/year", "note": "TX average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 325, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$382 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $325. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [130, 975], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.1017, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Off-peak energy charge from Rio Grande Electric Cooperative General Service Single Phase Commercial tariff #202.3, which covers midnight-06:00 entirely (peak is only 3-7pm weekdays May-Sep); energy component of bundled rate, PCA rider additional (currently a decrease). This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rio Grande Electric Cooperative", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 0.1017 on the same line as 'off peak'"}, "range": [0.05, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.1017, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Midday roughly 06:00-16:00 is almost entirely off-peak under the same small-commercial TOU tariff (only 15:00-16:00 overlaps the 3-7pm peak in summer); uses the published off-peak energy charge. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rio Grande Electric Cooperative", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 0.1017 on the same line as 'off peak'"}, "range": [0.05, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.1688, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Evening roughly 16:00-midnight includes the utility's defined on-peak window of 3-7pm weekdays May-Sep; uses the published on-peak energy charge from General Service Single Phase Commercial tariff #202.3 (PCA rider additional). This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rio Grande Electric Cooperative", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 0.1688 on the same line as 'on peak'"}, "range": [0.08, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charger", "value": 0.43, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No public DC fast charger exists in Presidio (zero stations within 10 miles per NREL data); this uses the Texas statewide DC-fast average as a proxy for what a network station would charge here.", "math": "Texas market average for DC fast is reported at $0.43/kWh. Presidio is remote with no existing public DCFC, so actual price if one opened would likely be at or above this (low utilization). Statewide figure from NREL-compiled data, not a local network rate.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes, seasonal TOU under General Service Single Phase Commercial Tariff #202.3 (also residential #202.1); peak 3-7pm weekdays May-Sep", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The cooperative publishes defined on/off-peak energy charges with a 4-hour weekday afternoon peak window May-September, available to small commercial members a charger operator could take. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rio Grande Electric Cooperative", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 13 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["no", "yes various names"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi supply", "value": "Uber lists UberX and warns pickups take longer than in bigger cities; no local taxi company identified; Lyft is Texas-licensed with no local-supply evidence. Supply is extremely thin.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Uber’s own Presidio city page is the operator statement that service is offered but wait times are longer than in larger cities; Census commute by taxi/ride-hail here is 0.0, which matches thin supply. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Uber", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/presidio-tx-us/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public transit evenings and weekends", "value": "No local circulating bus and no evening or weekend service. FCCBB TRAX is reservation-only (24–48 hours), Monday–Friday 8am–5pm, no holidays; All Aboard America runs twice-daily intercity coaches.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rural provider that actually has a Presidio office publishes weekday-only hours; that absence of evening/weekend buses is why carless households cannot shift night trips onto transit. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://fccbb.org/transportation/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 3.0, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No local TNC trip-length survey exists; the city’s own 2.575 sq mi land area plus the 11.5-minute mean commute are the strongest published local facts, so average paid length is reasoned from that geography.", "math": "Land area 2.575 sq mi implies a square about 1.60 miles on a side; a typical in-town trip is ~1.2 miles. Fort Leaton, the main out-of-town paid destination, is 5 miles SE of town. Mean commute 11.5 minutes is ~5 miles at 25–30 mph, so some trips leave the city. Weighted mix: 70% in-town 1.2 mi + 20% Fort Leaton/outskirts 5 mi + 10% longer county trips 12 mi = 0.84 + 1.0 + 1.2 = 3.04, rounded to 3.0. Stepped down from national TNC averages (~6–8 mi) ON this tiny land area and short commute. Direction: conservative if any Marfa (60 mi) trips occur; those would raise the mean.", "source": null, "range": [0.8, 12], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.7, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A town only ~1.6 miles across puts almost every intra-city errand under 3 miles; the 3.94% of households with no vehicle available mostly need those short local trips.", "math": "In-town geometry (side ~1.60 miles) puts grocery, clinic, and motel-to-restaurant trips under 3 miles. Fort Leaton at 5 miles is not short. Assign 70% under 3 miles to match the in-town weight used in trip_mi_avg. Stepped down from national short-trip shares ON land area and the 11.5-minute commute.", "source": null, "range": [0.4, 0.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.08, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips over 10 miles exist (Redford, Shafter, Marfa) but are a thin tail for paid rides given long distances, high fares, and a 0.0 taxi/ride-hail commute share.", "math": "Redford is ~16 miles, Shafter ~20, Marfa ~60. Those are real TRAX/All Aboard destinations, but a paid TNC ride to Marfa is $100-plus, so they cannot dominate. 8% leaves a long-distance tail without treating this like a city with airport or suburban haul. If this is high, it is because a few medical/shopping hauls to Alpine/Marfa sneak in.", "source": null, "range": [0.02, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.1, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Night demand is the gap left by no evening bus, but Presidio has no hospital night shifts and no college, so the bar/shift/college drivers the prompt names are weak here.", "math": "Clinics run roughly 8am–5pm (one satellite Thu–Sat to 7pm); TRAX ends at 5pm; no acute-care hospital and no college. Some restaurant, bar, and late border-return trips remain. National TNC 21:00–03:00 shares are often 0.15–0.20; stepped down to 0.10 ON the missing hospital/college nightlife. Direction: low if Ojinaga nightlife spills north after 21:00; high if the town is fully shut by 9pm.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.22], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 17000, "unit": "people/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No convention-and-visitor authority publishes a city headcount; this estimate is anchored to the City of Presidio’s FY2023 hotel occupancy tax (the latest complete year the city published) and cross-checked against calendar-2025 Fort Leaton visitation.", "math": "City FY2023 (year ended 2023-09-30) hotel/motel tax was $79,814. Local HOT rate is 7%, so taxable lodging receipts ≈ 79814/0.07 = $1,140,200. At about $90 ADR that is ~12,700 room-nights. At 2.0 people per room and 1.5 nights, unique overnight visitors ≈ 12700×2.0/1.5 ≈ 16,900, rounded to 17,000. Calendar-2025 Fort Leaton visits were 8,277 — same order of magnitude and partly the same people. Do not use ~1.49 million 2024 inbound personal-vehicle passengers at the Presidio port (BTS); those are overwhelmingly local/binational crossings, not tourists. Direction: conservative on day-trippers who never take a room; high if occupancy or ADR is overstated.", "source": null, "range": [5000, 50000], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitor_party_size", "visitor_nights_avg"]}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.0, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No visitor authority publishes a Presidio party size; motels sell two-queen family rooms and serve a mix of workers, couples, hunters, and motorcyclists, so parties are not mostly solo.", "math": "Three Palms Inn (largest motel, 50 rooms) advertises economy doubles, two-bed business rooms, and family suites; Riata sells one-king and two-queen rooms. Mix of solo workers (~1), couples (~2), and small families (~3) averages near 2.0. Give 1 only if visitors here traveled alone; they do not.", "source": null, "range": [1.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 1.5, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No visitor authority publishes length of stay; Presidio is a one-night pass-through to Ojinaga and the parks for many guests, with a smaller share of 2-night park/hunter stays.", "math": "Motel reviews and the town’s role as a border/park gateway point to many 1-night stays; Three Palms also describes week-long desert visits and hunters. Blend 70% one-night pass-through and 30% two-to-three-night leisure ≈ 0.7×1 + 0.3×2.5 = 1.45, rounded to 1.5.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 3.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Reported paid rides", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No independent published count of taxi or TNC trips in Presidio exists; value 0 is an audited absence, not a claim that zero rides occur.", "math": "Checked in order: (1) Texas TDLR TNC licensee list (https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/tnc/search) — statewide Uber/Lyft licenses only, no city trip counts; Texas has no Nevada-style taxicab authority publishing volumes. (2) City of Presidio and Presidio County sites — no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files (Occupations Code ch. 2402 preempts local TNC regulation). (3) Presidio Lely International Airport — no published TNC pickup statistics (general-aviation field). (4) No MPO household travel survey covering Presidio TNC trips (rural, not in an urbanized MPO). (5) Local reporting (Big Bend Sentinel and related searches) — no quoted taxi or TNC trip counts.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City geography type", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Presidio is one compact 2.58-square-mile incorporated city on the Rio Grande opposite Ojinaga; downtown, the port of entry, and the three school campuses sit in a single grid, so one car covers the whole town.", "math": "Wikipedia and the city site describe a single incorporated place of 2.58 sq mi with one downtown spine (O'Reilly Street) and the international bridge; there are no separate suburbs, satellite towns, or named commercial districts a fleet would have to choose between.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 0.91, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge distance; equivalent circular radius from the settled land area of 2.575 square miles.", "math": "r = sqrt(2.575 / pi) = sqrt(2.575 / 3.14159) = sqrt(0.8196) = 0.905, rounded to 0.91 mi. If the town is elongated along the river the true max radius is a bit larger, so 0.91 is a lower-bound circular equivalent.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 1, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "One continuous small-town grid; downtown, the bridge, clinics, and schools are minutes apart, so they are not separate demand districts a fleet must choose between.", "math": "Land area 2.575 sq mi and a single downtown (O'Reilly Street) plus the port of entry and three ISD campuses all inside that footprint. Counted as 1 district; an editor could split downtown/bridge from the school campuses (2) but they are not operationally separate.", "source": null, "range": [1, 4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Districts", "value": "one compact grid: downtown O'Reilly Street, the Presidio–Ojinaga port of entry, and the three Presidio ISD campuses", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the only real nodes inside the 2.58 sq mi city so a planner can see there is no second district.", "math": "O'Reilly Street is the commercial spine (city hall, church, market); the international bridge sits at the south end of US 67; Presidio Elementary, Lucy Rede Franco Middle, and the high school are the east-side campuses. All lie inside the same small grid.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport scheduled flights", "value": "zero scheduled commercial departures; general-aviation field with customs landing rights for private arrivals from Mexico", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA-derived airport record shows 0 commercial operations; the field is a customs-landing-rights GA airport 5 miles north of town, not a scheduled hub. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FltPlan / FAA airport record KPRS", "date": "2026-10", "url": "https://www.fltplan.com/Airport.cgi?PRS", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named demand generators", "value": "Presidio ISD (3 campuses, ~1,038 students); U.S. Customs and Border Protection / Presidio port of entry; Presidio County Medical Clinic (outpatient only); Mexican Consulate; local retail. No hospital or college campus in town.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Wikipedia names ISD, CBP and retail as the local economy; US News gives ISD enrollment; clinics exist but have no inpatient beds. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikipedia, Presidio, Texas", "date": "2020-08", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidio,_Texas", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Hospital staffed beds", "value": 0, "unit": "beds", "basis": "estimated", "why": "There is no hospital in Presidio or Presidio County; the nearest staffed hospital is Big Bend Regional Medical Center in Alpine, about 90 miles away.", "math": "RHT Compass lists Presidio County among Texas hospital deserts (nearest hospital 43.8 mi in that compilation; local reporting says ~90 miles to Alpine). A 2021 Big Bend Regional Hospital District study found a hospital in the county is not feasible (projected 1.5 inpatients/day). DSHS hospital lists have no Presidio facility. Staffed beds in the city = 0. Conservative: ignores any future micro-hospital.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 0, "unit": "students", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No college campus in the city; Presidio ISD only offers distance-learning college courses through Odessa College and UT Permian Basin.", "math": "Presidio ISD 2025-26 handbook: the district serves ~1,020 K-12 students and 'provides Distance Learning college courses through The University of Texas Permian Basin and Odessa College' — those enrollments sit at Odessa, not Presidio. No other college is listed in town. City college enrollment = 0.", "source": null, "range": [0, 500], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Annual events", "value": "July 4 fireworks and community celebration; October two-day St. Teresa de Jesus de Avila fiesta; first weekend of December Presidio Posada Christmas festival; Saturday downtown farmers market", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Tour Texas, fed by the city's tourism office, lists the recurring events that actually draw people into downtown Presidio. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Tour Texas / Presidio events", "date": "2025-01", "url": "https://www.tourtexas.com/destinations/presidio-events", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 14 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "State minimum liability limits for TNC/for-hire", "value": "$50k/$100k/$25k (logged on, no ride) and $1 million (during ride)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Texas Insurance Code Chapter 1954 sets TNC (the state's primary for-hire passenger statute) minimums; traditional for-hire still uses the 30/60/25 financial-responsibility floor unless a city requires more. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Texas Insurance Code § 1954.052", "date": "2025", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/texas/insurance-code/title-10/subtitle-c/chapter-1954/subchapter-b/section-1954-052/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 3 of the 5 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Monthly downtown parking space", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Presidio (pop. 2,909) has no published meters, garages or paid downtown parking; street parking is free as in nearly all rural Texas towns of this size.", "math": "Exhaustive search of city news, ordinances and listings returned only an OHV ordinance and a federal warehouse RFP; zero mention of parking fees or permits. Value set to 0. If a private lot were used the cost would still be negligible.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration and permits", "value": "Standard TX passenger registration ~$75–$86/yr; no city for-hire permit found; TNC company permit $10,500 if operating as a TNC", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Presidio has no located taxi/for-hire ordinance; vehicles use ordinary TxDMV registration. A digital-network (TNC) operation would also need the statewide TDLR company permit.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "TDLR TNC at a Glance", "date": "2025-12", "url": "https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/media/pdf/TNC%20at%20a%20Glance.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 6 of the 10 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.343, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0394 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.47x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.34x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.17, 0.69], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0396, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Presidio who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.34x: 0.1152 x 0.34 = 0.0396. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0158 to 0.0990, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0158, 0.099], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.0, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.1, 2, 2.2, 2, 2. The MEDIAN, 2, is used; the draws spanned 2 to 2.2, a factor of 1.10. Only 0.0394 of households have no vehicle and the mean commute is 11.5 minutes, so even monthly-active riders take just a couple of trips.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "No air-arrival share could be built: no visitor count and airport boardings pair was available. It is set to zero, which means the airport transfer contributes nothing to the visitor trip count and this chain is a FLOOR for any town whose visitors do fly in.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 0.05], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.18, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.18, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15, 0.2. The MEDIAN, 0.18, is used; the draws spanned 0.15 to 0.2, a factor of 1.33. Resident population of only 2909 implies a tiny airport lacking rental counters, hotel shuttles, rail or transit, so after known-person lifts a modest share still uses taxi or ride-hail.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.3, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.25, 0.25. The MEDIAN, 0.3, is used; the draws spanned 0.25 to 0.4, a factor of 1.60. Land area of 2.575 square miles and 1.5-night average stay make the town compact enough that a visiting party needs almost no extra paid local rides.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.3, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.000 arriving by air x 0.180 of those hiring a ride = 0.000, plus 0.300 trips in town = 0.300 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.25 to 0.40. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 12, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 2909 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.6491 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0396 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.0 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 17000 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 2.0 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.3 (our estimate). Residents: 2,909 people x 0.6491 adults = 1,888 adults; x 0.0396 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 75 people; x 2.0 trips each a month = 150 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 5 resident rides a day. Visitors: 17,000 a year / 2.0 people in a party = 8,500 visiting parties; x 0.3 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 7 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 59% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 12 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 8 rides a day, and at its own high bound 23. The 12 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in order: (1) Texas TDLR TNC licensee list (https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/tnc/search) — statewide Uber/Lyft licenses only, no city trip counts; Texas has no Nevada-style taxicab authority publishing volumes. (2) City of Presidio and Presidio County sites — no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files (Occupations Code ch. 2402 preempts local TNC regulation). (3) Presidio Lely International Airport — no published TNC pickup statistics (general-aviation field). (4) No MPO household travel survey covering Presidio TNC trips (rural, not in an urbanized MPO). (5) Local reporting (Big Bend Sentinel and related searches) — no quoted taxi or TNC trip counts. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [3, 48], "editable": true, "low": 8, "high": 23, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in order: (1) Texas TDLR TNC licensee list (https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/tnc/search) — statewide Uber/Lyft licenses only, no city trip counts; Texas has no Nevada-style taxicab authority publishing volumes. (2) City of Presidio and Presidio County sites — no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files (Occupations Code ch. 2402 preempts local TNC regulation). (3) Presidio Lely International Airport — no published TNC pickup statistics (general-aviation field). (4) No MPO household travel survey covering Presidio TNC trips (rural, not in an urbanized MPO). (5) Local reporting (Big Bend Sentinel and related searches) — no quoted taxi or TNC trip counts.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 12, "our_range_per_day": [3, 48]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "2,909 people", "federal": "the note says 2,909; the Census file says Presidio city 2,909 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Energy charges listed on the live tariff page date to 2018 effective but remain posted with monthly PCA rider (August example -$0.02007). All-in per-kWh for high-usage charging would be energy + PCA (fixed availability charge becomes small). No DCFC in Presidio itself; nearest are tens of miles away in Marfa/Fort Davis (Level 2 only). TOU is seasonal only, not year-round 3-period.", "demand": "Presidio is a working border town, not a tourist city like Marfa. FY2023 city hotel/motel tax ($79,814 at 7%) and calendar-2025 Fort Leaton (8,277) and Big Bend Ranch State Park (12,451) visits are the visitor evidence; ~1.49 million 2024 inbound personal-vehicle passengers at the port were not used as visitors. Census no-vehicle share 0.0394, mean commute 11.5 minutes, and 0.0 taxi and 0.0 transit commute shares are the local demand anchors. FCCBB TRAX (Presidio office at 102 W Center St) is the rural provider with published hours; TxDOT also lists West Texas Opportunities TRAX for the county.", "geography": "Settled federal land area 2.575 sq mi used for radius; Wikipedia rounds the same footprint to 2.58 sq mi. Wikipedia 2020 census population is 3,264 — do not overwrite the pack's settled 2,909. Airport is 5 miles north of town (AirNav/FAA), outside the city radius; FltPlan reports 0 commercial ops (table also shows 0 GA, which looks like a missing 5010 filing, not proof of zero traffic). Chili dehydrator is ~12 miles west on FM 170, outside city generators. Hospital_beds and college_enrollment are estimated zeros with explicit math because no in-city hospital or campus exists. District_count=1 is a planning judgment; an editor could split downtown/bridge from the school campuses.", "_superseded": ["clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note"], "costs": "Presidio, TX (pop. 2,909, median HH income $40,800) publishes almost no local commercial rents, parking fees, detailing prices or taxi ordinances. Insurance uses a Texas work-truck liability analog (passenger for-hire is typically higher). Depot rent derived from statewide industrial NNN low end. Parking is free. Cleaning and labour use Border nonmetro BLS wages plus Texas metro service prices scaled down. TNC company permit is statewide and would dominate costs if the operator is a licensed TNC rather than a traditional local for-hire. Minimum-wage confirmation from FRED/ALFRED 2026: $7.25."}, "gaps": ["airport: no commercial service airport within 120 miles of this city appears in the FAA's CY2024 enplanement file", "visitor_air_arrival_share: could not be built, so visitors are counted as arriving by road and the visitor stream is a floor", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic", "airport: no airport_distance_mi record -- research did not produce one", "airport: no airport_passengers_year record -- research did not produce one"], "counts": {"total": 74, "sourced": 26, "derived": 27, "estimated": 21}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_flights_note", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 26, "primary": 15, "secondary": 11, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 48, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 37, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 37, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 14, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. 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"not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "PRESIDIO, TX US (USC00417262), 0.8 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US4859396, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 4800001 -- Northwestern Region of Texas nonmetropolitan area", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "labour_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 0.1017 on the same line as 'off peak'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 0.1017 on the same line as 'off peak'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 0.1688 on the same line as 'on peak'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.riogrande.coop/my-account/rates/texas-rates/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 13 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/presidio-tx-us/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://fccbb.org/transportation/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.fltplan.com/Airport.cgi?PRS", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidio,_Texas", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.tourtexas.com/destinations/presidio-events", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 14 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/texas/insurance-code/title-10/subtitle-c/chapter-1954/subchapter-b/section-1954-052/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 3 of the 5 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/media/pdf/TNC%20at%20a%20Glance.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 6 of the 10 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 2481042, "output_tokens": 59112, "web_searches": 107, "cost_usd": 5.2992, "seconds": 1226.8, "measured_on": "2026-09-08", "note": "measured when the research actually ran on 2026-09-08; rebuilding the pack from the saved answers costs nothing"}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "presidio-tx", "searches_charged": 0, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 200, "calls_made": 0, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 0, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 0, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.18, "draws": [0.18, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15, 0.2], "min": 0.15, "max": 0.2, "spread_x": 1.33}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.3, "draws": [0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.25, 0.25], "min": 0.25, "max": 0.4, "spread_x": 1.6}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.0, "draws": [2.1, 2.0, 2.2, 2.0, 2.0], "min": 2.0, "max": 2.2, "spread_x": 1.1}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [8, 23]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in order: (1) Texas TDLR TNC licensee list (https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/tnc/search) — statewide Uber/Lyft licenses only, no city trip counts; Texas has no Nevada-style taxicab authority publishing volumes. (2) City of Presidio and Presidio County sites — no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files (Occupations Code ch. 2402 preempts local TNC regulation). (3) Presidio Lely International Airport — no published TNC pickup statistics (general-aviation field). (4) No MPO household travel survey covering Presidio TNC trips (rural, not in an urbanized MPO). (5) Local reporting (Big Bend Sentinel and related searches) — no quoted taxi or TNC trip counts.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 12, "our_range_per_day": [3, 48]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": true, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 74 numbers behind a season in Presidio, 26 are published figures, 27 are worked out from published figures, and 21 are our own estimates. 37 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [29.560348, -104.365302], "geoid": "4859396", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Presidio city", "population": 2909, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Presidio County", "population": 5433, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 0, "dcfc_ports": 0, "dcfc_list": [], "l2_sites": 0, "l2_ports": 0, "nearest_dcfc": null}, "counts": {"confirmed": 4, "disputed": 1, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 0, "claims": 5, "records_touched": 4, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 37}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "claim_text": "No public DC fast charger exists in Presidio (zero stations within 10 miles per NREL data);", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "math", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "claim_text": "Presidio is remote with no existing public DCFC, so actual price if one opened would likely be at or above this (low utilization).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "2,909 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 2,909 people x 0.6491 adults = 1,888 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 2,909; the Census file says Presidio city 2,909 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "claim_text": "No DCFC in Presidio itself;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,264 people", "claim_text": "Wikipedia 2020 census population is 3,264 — do not overwrite the pack's settled 2,909.", "verdict": "disputed", "federal": "the note says 3,264; the Census file says Presidio city 2,909 (Census vintage 2025) / Presidio County 5,433 (Census vintage 2025)", "tolerance": "within 5%"}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 1, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 1, "passes_the_same_test_now": 0, "still_fails_the_same_test": 1, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "transit_note", "url": "https://fccbb.org/transportation/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}