{"id": "fargo-nd", "label": "Fargo, ND", "city": "Fargo", "state": "ND", "county": "Cass County", "geography": "multi-district metro", "population": 136275, "researched_on": "2026-09-14", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 76, "sourced": 28, "derived": 31, "estimated": 17}, "gaps": 2, "citations": {"checked": 12, "passed": 12, "failed": 0}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 76 numbers behind a season in Fargo, 28 are published figures, 31 are worked out from published figures, and 17 are our own estimates. 38 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "fargo-nd", "city": "Fargo", "state": "ND", "label": "Fargo, ND", "county": "Cass County", "geography_type": "multi-district metro", "researched_on": "2026-09-14", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 136275, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Fargo city, North Dakota.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 3825700 -- Fargo city, North Dakota"}, "range": [68137, 272550], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 51.888, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Fargo city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_38.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-08", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 3825700 -- Fargo city"}, "range": [25.9, 103.8], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 2626, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "136,275 residents divided by 51.888 square miles of land = 2,626 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [1050, 6565], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 201794, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Cass County, North Dakota. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 38017 -- Cass County, North Dakota"}, "range": [100897, 403588], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Hector International", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid FAR -- Hector International, Fargo ND"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "FAR", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid FAR -- Hector International, Fargo ND"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 552860, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid FAR -- Hector International, Fargo ND"}, "range": [276430, 1105720], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 5.7, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 552,860 against CY2023 522,976, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (552,860 - 522,976) / 522,976 = 5.7%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 3.9, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (46.864700, -96.829080, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (46.920647, -96.815759, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 3.9 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 9.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1412, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across North Dakota in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "North Dakota, June 2026"}, "range": [0.071, 0.282], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.0802, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "North Dakota, June 2026"}, "range": [0.04, 0.16], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1219, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "North Dakota, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.061, 0.244], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_candidates", "label": "Utilities that serve this county", "value": "Northern States Power Co - Minnesota (82,987 customers in ND); Cass County Elec Coop Inc (51,968 customers in ND); Otter Tail Power Co (45,467 customers in ND); Nodak Electric Coop Inc (20,803 customers in ND); WAPA-- Western Area Power Administration (0 customers in ND)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every utility filing an EIA-861 service territory for Cass County. More than one is large enough here that the county file cannot say which one this town is on, so it does not say.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024 service territory", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Cass County, ND"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 2 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00322860", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00322860.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 41.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00322860: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 41.4F.", "source": null, "range": [26.4, 56.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 7.6, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00322860", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00322860.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [-7.4, 22.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 70.6, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00322860", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00322860.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [55.6, 85.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 24.4, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00322860: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 24.40 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [12.2, 43.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 52.7, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00215586, 4.1 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station MOORHEAD, MN US (USC00215586), 4.1 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 52.7 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 105], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 40.1, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00215586", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00215586.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "MOORHEAD, MN US (USC00215586), 4.1 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8002, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Fargo, ND, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: total population 131,627, of whom 26,301 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (131,627 - 26,301) / 131,627 = 0.8002.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 66998, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Fargo, ND. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US3825700, B19013_E001"}, "range": [33499, 133996], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0828, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Fargo, ND with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: 59,970 occupied households, of which 483 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 4,482 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (483 + 4,482) / 59,970 = 0.0828, or 8.3%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.7668, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: 58,208 of 75,907 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.7668, or 76.68%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0058, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: 442 of 75,907 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0058, or 0.58%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0015, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: 111 of 75,907 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0015, or 0.15%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0983, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: 7,462 of 75,907 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0983, or 9.83%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 15.5, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Fargo, ND. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US3825700: 1,058,995 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 68,445 workers who did not work from home = 15.5 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 17.7, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Fargo, ND-MN, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Fargo, ND-MN', 460 people employed in it: median hourly wage $17.70. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 17.70 / 16.96 = 1.044.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 22020 -- Fargo, ND-MN"}, "range": [10.62, 31.86], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 17.7, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Fargo, ND-MN"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Fargo, ND-MN are paid a median of $17.70 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 460 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 104% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 1.044, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Fargo, ND-MN' is $17.70 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 17.70 / 16.96 = 1.044. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.669, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $946 a month in Fargo, ND (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 946 / 1413 = 0.669.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 37, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 1.044 = $37.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [15, 91], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 76, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 1.044 = $76.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [30, 189], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 158, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 1.044 = $158.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [63, 395], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 854, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.669 = $854 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [341, 2561], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 216, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $807.77 in ND against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 807.77 / 1281.60 = 0.630. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.630 = $216 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [86, 648], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 807.77, "unit": "$/year", "note": "ND average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 184, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$216 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $184. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [74, 552], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_utility", "theme": "power", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Xcel Energy (Northern States Power Company)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Fargo franchise minutes name Northern States Power Company (Xcel) as the electric franchisee and state Xcel accounts for about two-thirds of electric franchise-fee revenue; Cass County Electric Cooperative holds the remaining third on co-op lines in growing parts of the city. Xcel’s own ND electric rate book and 2024 service guide list Fargo in its electric service area (Fargo EG).", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Fargo Board of City Commissioners", "date": "2023-07", "url": "https://fargond.gov/city-government/departments/city-commission/agendas-minutes/2023-minutes-video-archive/july-31-2023-minutes", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 6 of the 6 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.079, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Xcel ND Small General Time of Day (D14) and Residential Time of Day (D02/D04) both bill midnight–06:00 at the off-peak energy charge year-round; this is that tariff energy plus the current Fuel Cost, Renewable Energy, and Transmission Cost riders and Fargo’s 4% city franchise fee. It is volumetric all-in, not including the $22/month customer charge. Cass County Electric members in south Fargo instead see a published $0.052/kWh non-peak rate.", "math": "Tariff off-peak energy is 4.365¢/kWh (PSC PU-24-376 final tariffs, effective 2026-05-01). Add NDPSC Fuel Cost Rider YTD 2026 average (Jan–Sep): (0.02881+0.02022+0.02861+0.02394+0.02880+0.02223+0.02634+0.01829+0.03503)/9 = 0.02581. Add RER $0.002437 and TCR $0.003913. Subtotal 0.04365+0.02581+0.002437+0.003913 = 0.07581. Times Fargo 4% city fee: 0.07581×1.04 = 0.07884, rounded to 0.079. Likely a bit low versus September 2026 fuel ($0.03503); ignores the monthly customer charge, which is small at charging-operator volumes.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.16], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.175, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Xcel’s ND TOD tariff has only two periods—on-peak 9 a.m.–9 p.m. weekdays and off-peak all other hours—so there is no mid-peak price. Weekdays 09:00–16:00 are billed at the Small General Time of Day on-peak energy charge; this uses that year-weighted on-peak rate all-in (energy + fuel + RER + TCR + Fargo 4% city fee). 06:00–09:00 is actually off-peak, so this is conservative for the whole 06:00–16:00 window.", "math": "Small General TOD on-peak energy: Jun–Sep 15.933¢, Oct–May 12.383¢. Year-weighted (4 summer + 8 winter months): (4×0.15933 + 8×0.12383)/12 = 0.13566. Plus fuel 0.02581 + RER 0.002437 + TCR 0.003913 = 0.16782. Times 1.04 city fee = 0.17453, rounded to 0.175. Same riders as overnight. Residential TOD on-peak would be higher (year-weighted energy 15.332¢ → about $0.193 all-in).", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.175, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Same Xcel Small General Time of Day on-peak all-in rate as daytime: weekdays 16:00–21:00 are on-peak. 21:00–midnight is off-peak, so using the on-peak all-in rate for the whole 16:00–24:00 window is conservative (high). Xcel has no separate evening-only period.", "math": "Same arithmetic as power_mid: year-weighted Small General TOD on-peak energy 13.566¢ + fuel 2.581¢ + RER 0.2437¢ + TCR 0.3913¢ = 16.782¢, ×1.04 Fargo city fee = 17.45¢ ≈ $0.175/kWh. Direction of uncertainty: high for this window because three of the eight hours (9 p.m.–midnight) and all weekends are actually off-peak at $0.079.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.51, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Posted public (non-member) price at the Tesla Supercharger at 5680 23rd Avenue South, Fargo (8 stalls, up to 250 kW), as republished from Tesla’s public pricing on 2026-09-13. A third-party aggregator, not Tesla’s own site. The larger Scheels Supercharger at 1551 45th St S was $0.60/kWh public peak / $0.48 off-peak the same week. City of Fargo’s own ChargePoint DCFC (62.5 kW at 225 4th St N) was $0.40/kWh plus a $4.95 minimum. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "DCFC Tracker (Tesla Supercharger, 23rd Avenue South, Fargo)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://dcfctracker.com/stations/158383", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.3, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "8 fast-charging stalls (Tesla Supercharger)", "federal": "the note counts 8 stalls; the snapshot lists Fargo, ND - Tesla Supercharger with 8 fast ports 2.9 mi from the town center (TESLA)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 3}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: Xcel Small General Time of Day (D14) and Residential Time of Day (D02/D04); on-peak 9 a.m.–9 p.m. weekdays", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The NDPSC-approved Xcel North Dakota Electric Rate Book still offers Residential Time of Day Service (D02/D04) and Small General Time of Day Service (D14) after final rates effective 1 May 2026. Xcel’s ND residential rate card defines on-peak as 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. weekdays (weekends and listed holidays off-peak); 12-month minimum, with a three-month trial. A small charging operator would take D14, not residential. Cass County Electric Cooperative separately offers a Time of Day Program on co-op territory (on-peak Mon–Fri 6–9 a.m. and 4–8 p.m. at $0.222/kWh; non-peak $0.052/kWh).", "math": null, "source": {"name": "North Dakota PSC — NSP/Xcel PU-24-376 final tariffs", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://www.psc.nd.gov/webdocs/case/24-0376/112-010.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 7 of the 10 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi services on the ground", "value": "Uber and Lyft run 24/7 (UberX/XL and Lyft Standard/XL only); Doyle's Yellow Checker and Lucky 7 taxis also 24/7. Supply is thin: no premium TNC products, and the city uses Lyft promo codes for holiday sober rides.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The city's own 2026 ride directory and both operators' Fargo pages show Uber, Lyft, and two taxis operating around the clock; the product mix is only the cheapest tiers, which is the local sign of a thin market, not a dense one. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "MATBUS FM Ride Source", "date": "2026", "url": "https://matbus.com/services-partners/fm-ridesource", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "MATBUS runs 19 fixed routes Mon–Sat (weekdays 6:15 a.m.–10:15 p.m., Saturday 7:15 a.m.–10:15 p.m.) across Fargo, West Fargo, Moorhead and Dilworth; there is no Sunday fixed-route service, so late-night and Sunday trips shift to cars.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The operator's own FAQ is the hours of record: buses stop at 10:15 p.m. and do not run Sundays, which is the local fact that pushes bar, shift-change, and Sunday trips onto private cars and ride-hail. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "MATBUS", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://matbus.com/riding-matbus/frequently-asked-questions", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 4.5, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes TNC trip length for Fargo; 4.5 miles is reasoned from the city's own 51.888 sq mi land area, the 15.5-minute mean commute, and Uber's published Fargo distances (airport 4 mi, Moorhead 6 mi).", "math": "Land area 51.888 sq mi gives an equivalent radius of sqrt(51.888/pi) = 4.06 miles and a characteristic diameter of about 8.1 miles. The ACS mean one-way commute is 15.5 minutes; at 22–25 mph in town that is roughly 5.7–6.5 miles, but paid TNC trips are shorter than work commutes (bars, campus, downtown, airport). Uber's Fargo page lists Hector Airport at 4 mi and Fargo–Moorhead at 6 mi. National TNC means in large cities run about 5–6 miles (Chicago TNC ~5.2 mi in 2022); Fargo is much smaller, so this steps down from that national mean ON the 15.5-minute commute and the 8-mile city diameter. 4.5 miles sits between a neighborhood hop and a cross-town trip. Likely conservative if West Fargo/Moorhead rides are a large share; likely high if most demand is NDSU-to-downtown.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 10.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.42, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Paid trips in a compact college city bunch short; this is the under-3-mile share implied by a 4.5-mile mean with the usual right-skew of TNC lengths, raised a bit by NDSU and downtown.", "math": "TNC trip lengths are right-skewed. Chicago's open TNC file showed 26% of trips at 2 miles or less and 50% under 4 miles, at a ~5.2-mile mean in a much larger city. With Fargo's estimated 4.5-mile mean and a lognormal shape (median near 3.3 miles), P(distance < 3) is about 0.42. Stepped toward more short trips ON the 51.888 sq mi footprint, the 15.5-minute commute, 8.28% of households with no vehicle, and an 11,952-student NDSU campus. Direction: likely high if airport and West Fargo runs dominate; likely low if bar/campus hops dominate.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 0.65], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.08, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Fargo's built-up diameter is about 8 miles, so trips over 10 miles are the tail (West Fargo–Moorhead is 9 miles on Uber's own table); this is that tail, not a tourist-city airport haul.", "math": "City diameter ~8.1 miles from the 51.888 sq mi land area. Uber's Fargo page prices West Fargo–Moorhead at 9 miles and the airport at 4 miles, so the >10-mile bin is the far tail (Horace, Casselton, or a long airport-plus trip). With a 4.5-mile mean and right skew, P(>10) is about 0.08. Stepped down from large-city TNC tails ON Fargo's short commute (15.5 minutes) and small land area. Direction: likely high if most trips stay inside Fargo; likely low if a lot of demand is Fargo–West Fargo–Moorhead.", "source": null, "range": [0.02, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand between 21:00 and 03:00", "value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Six clock hours are 25% of the day, but Uber's own Fargo driver page says the busiest window is 5–8 p.m.; the late share is still material because MATBUS dies at 10:15 p.m., NDSU is in session, and Sanford runs 24/7.", "math": "21:00–03:00 is 6 of 24 hours (0.25 of the clock). Uber's Fargo driver page states the highest-demand time is 5pm-8pm, so the 9 p.m.–3 a.m. bin is not the daily mode. Offset that with: MATBUS last bus 10:15 p.m. and no Sunday fixed route; NDSU enrollment 11,952 with 95% on-campus programs; Sanford Medical Center Fargo 543 staffed beds on night shifts; city-designated downtown ride-share stands Thursday–Saturday 10 p.m.–3 a.m. Streetlight OD used in the 2021 Metro COG model put 182,160 of 671,994 internal trips (27%) in a longer 'Night' bin (roughly 6 p.m.–7 a.m.). TNC is more night-skewed than all traffic but Uber's own peak is early evening, so 0.20 is a blend — below a bar-town 0.30 and above a pure commute city. Direction: likely conservative on NDSU weekend nights; likely high on winter weeknights when students stay in. The 8.28% no-vehicle household share and 0.0015 taxi/ride-hail commute share argue that most Fargo workers still drive themselves, so night TNC is drinking/shift more than commuting.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.35], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors (2025)", "value": 8185600, "unit": "person-trips/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Calendar year 2025, Cass County (Fargo's county): Tourism Economics visitor spending of $1,080.5 million divided by the state's $132 spending per visitor. This is county person-trips, not a Fargo-city unique-headcount — Fargo is the spending core, but the figure is larger than the city alone.", "math": "North Dakota Tourism Economics (published July 2026) reports Cass County visitor spending of $1,080.5 million in 2025 (lodging $170.8 + food & beverage $296.1 + retail $219.9 + recreation $204.4 + transportation $189.3 million; −3.7% year-over-year) and statewide spending of $132 per visitor. 1,080.5 million / 132 = 8,185,606 person-trips. Cass County remains the state's leader in visitor spending. This is NOT Fargo city alone: it includes West Fargo and rural Cass, and Tourism Economics counts person-trips (including in-state day trips), not unique people. Statewide per-visitor spend is likely below Cass's urban shopping/medical mix, so dividing by $132 OVERSTATES Cass headcount. Visit Fargo-Moorhead separately tracked 5.7 million visitor-days from 90+ miles in 2025 and 1,207,819 hotel room nights — a lower, 90-mile-filtered metro measure. Direction: 8.19 million is a high-side county person-trip count for 2025; a Fargo-city unique-visitor number would be lower. Do not mix with 2024.", "source": null, "range": [1500000, 15000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.1, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Visit Fargo-Moorhead does not publish party size; 2.1 is a local step-down from the national overnight-party average of about 3, because Fargo mixes sports families with solo medical and business travelers who share one hotel room and one car.", "math": "A Longwoods/TravelAbility 2025 national study puts average U.S. overnight party size at 3.0 people. Fargo is not that market: it is a drive-in sports, shopping, and regional-medical city. Occupied hotel rooms typically hold about 1.7 guests (one room = one car). USA Wrestling Junior Nationals alone draws more than 8,500 athlete entries and more than 25,000 total visitors (~2.9 people per athlete party), which pulls the leisure tail up. Blend of ~1.4 for business/medical and ~2.5 for leisure/sports ≈ 2.1. Not 1: visitors here do not mostly travel alone. Direction: low if tournament weeks dominate; high if Sanford/clinic traffic dominates.", "source": null, "range": [1.2, 3.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 1.8, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The CVB publishes 1,207,819 hotel room nights for 2025 but not length of stay; 1.8 nights is a drive-market stay, shorter than the national overnight-trip average and in line with sports weekends and one-night shopping trips.", "math": "Visit Fargo-Moorhead (2025 annual report) recorded 1,207,819 hotel room nights and occupancy of 57.38% in the Fargo-Moorhead-West Fargo market; it does not publish average length of stay. U.S. hotel ALOS is typically about 2 nights; Longwoods U.S. overnight trips run longer (~3.7 nights) because they include VFR and multi-destination touring. Fargo is a regional drive market: sports weekends (Fri–Sun ≈ 2 nights), medical visits 1–2 nights, Canadian/regional shopping often 1 night. 1.8 nights. Statewide 2025 mix was 18.0 million day trips vs 7.6 million overnight trips, so many 'visitors' never stay the night at all — this 1.8 applies only to overnight parties. Direction: low if USA Wrestling / Fargodome events dominate; high if the overnight mix is mostly one-night shoppers.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 3.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count", "value": 0, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No public Fargo or North Dakota series counts TNC or taxi trips; the five places that sometimes publish one were checked and none produced a usable city total.", "math": "Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: ND Century Code 39-34-05 makes Uber and Lyft file with NDDOT twice a year, but the published memos (e.g. Dec 2019 and Dec 2020 at ndlegis.gov) list political subdivisions, accidents, and violations — not trip counts. NDDOT's ND Sober Ride program reported 784 rides statewide over St. Patrick's 2026 (265 Lyft + 519 Uber), a holiday promo, not a Fargo market total (https://www.dot.nd.gov/news/nd-sober-ride-marks-five-years-record-st-patricks-day-usage). (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: Fargo licenses taxis (Ordinance 5381) and requires daily manifests, but the city does not publish trip totals; state law preempts local TNC rules. No Cass County or Fargo open-data TNC trip file was found. (3) Airport: Hector International Airport published 1,179,442 total passengers for calendar 2025 (https://www.fargoairport.com/december-2025-year-end-statistics/) and states Uber/Lyft operate, but it does not publish TNC or taxi pickup counts. (4) MPO: FM Metro COG's 2021 travel-demand model (Streetlight OD, 671,994 internal vehicle trips) and 2024/2025 Metro Profile report all-vehicle and MATBUS volumes, not TNC/taxi counts; the older Metro Grow survey (n=287) listed TNC as a secondary mode with no volumes. (5) Local reporting: InForum and Valley News Live cover Uber/Lyft availability and sober-ride codes; none quote an annual or monthly paid-ride total for Fargo. Uber's Fargo driver page says 'Thousands of riders request rides with Uber every day' — recruiting copy, not a measured series, so it is not used as a count.", "source": null, "range": [0, 15000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "multi-district metro", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Fargo is the ND core of a three-city Fargo–West Fargo–Moorhead metro spanning two states, with demand split among downtown Broadway, NDSU/Fargodome on the north, the 2017 Sanford tower and Microsoft on the south, West Acres at I-29/I-94, and Hector Airport on the north — a fleet has to choose among those nodes, not treat the city as one radius.", "math": "Visit Fargo-Moorhead calls Fargo, West Fargo, and Moorhead sister cities of the Red River Valley and says Fargo consists of three cities in two states. Wikipedia: I-29/I-94 pushed growth south and west; West Acres (largest mall in ND) sits at the interstate junction; NDSU students cluster in Roosevelt/north Fargo; Sanford’s Level I hospital is at 5225 23rd Ave S (south). Equivalent-circle radius is only ~4 miles, so one car can physically cross the city, but the generators sit on opposite ends and two other legal cities share the urban fabric.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 4.06, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge mileage; this is the equivalent-circle radius from the settled Census land area, which is the right default for a compact-city check.", "math": "sqrt(51.888 / pi) = sqrt(16.517) = 4.06 miles. Likely conservative as a one-car-covers-it figure: the city is elongated north–south (post-interstate growth south and west), so the farthest built-up edge (south Fargo around Sanford at 5225 23rd Ave S versus NDSU/Fargodome on the north) is farther than 4 miles along the long axis.", "source": null, "range": [3, 12], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 5, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Five spatially separate demand nodes inside Fargo city limits that a fleet would actually choose among; West Fargo and Moorhead are additional adjacent cities, not counted here.", "math": "Count of meaningfully different generators, not neighbourhoods: (1) downtown Broadway/riverfront, (2) NDSU + Fargodome/north Fargo, (3) south Fargo Sanford Medical Center + Microsoft, (4) West Acres mall at I-29/I-94, (5) airport/north industrial. Adjacent West Fargo and Moorhead would make a metro-fleet count of 7; this record is Fargo city.", "source": null, "range": [3, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Districts", "value": "downtown Broadway/riverfront; NDSU/Fargodome north; south Fargo Sanford/Microsoft; West Acres at I-29/I-94; airport/north industrial", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the five Fargo-city demand nodes a dispatcher would actually choose among, from the city’s published layout rather than realtor neighbourhood lists.", "math": "Downtown is the walkable Broadway core (Street Fair, theatre). NDSU sits north with the Fargodome (19,000 football). Sanford’s 284-bed 2017 hospital is at 5225 23rd Ave S on the south side, with Microsoft’s regional campus also south. West Acres is the interstate-junction mall. Hector Airport is 3.9 miles northwest of centre. West Fargo (west) and Moorhead (east across the Red River) are separate cities.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport flights", "value": "about 21 scheduled passenger departures per day to Minneapolis, Chicago, Denver, Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta, plus Allegiant leisure cities (Las Vegas, Nashville, Phoenix; seasonal Orlando and Tampa)", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "Hector is a spoke, not a hub: several daily flights to the big U.S. connecting airports plus leisure cities — a different demand pattern from a two-flights-to-one-hub town.", "math": "Airport authority: 7,573 air-carrier landings in 2025. 7573/365 = 20.7, rounded to about 21 daily departures (spoke airport, landings ≈ departures). December 2025 had 626 air-carrier departures in 31 days = 20.2/day, same order. Year-end carrier table: Delta to Minneapolis and Atlanta; United to Chicago and Denver; American to Chicago, Dallas and Phoenix; Frontier to Denver; Allegiant to Las Vegas, Nashville, Orlando, Phoenix and Tampa (stars mark seasonal).", "source": null, "range": [10, 40], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "Sanford Health (6,278 FTE; 284-bed Level I, 60% of patients from outside the metro); Essentia Health-Fargo (2,848 FTE; 133-bed Level II); NDSU (11,952 students; Bison football ~19,000 at the Fargodome); VA Health Care System (1,380); Microsoft regional campus; West Acres mall", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the named places that actually move people: two hospital systems, the land-grant university and its football dome, the VA, Microsoft, and the interstate mall.", "math": "Employee FTEs from Wikipedia’s table of the city’s 2025 ACFR (secondary compilation of a primary report not opened this session): Sanford 6,278, Essentia 2,848, NDSU 2,167, VA 1,380. Beds from each hospital’s own site (Sanford 284, Essentia 133). NDSU headcount 11,952 from the university’s fall 2025 census via InForum. Fargodome ~19,000 football from NDSU athletics. Microsoft named as a regional campus on Wikipedia; no current headcount sourced this session. West Acres is ND’s largest mall (Wikipedia).", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital beds", "value": 284, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Sanford Medical Center Fargo is the largest hospital in North Dakota; 284 is the bed count the hospital itself publishes for the 2017 Level I tower. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Sanford Health", "date": "2017", "url": "https://www.sanfordhealth.org/locations/sanford-medical-center-fargo", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "redirected_from": "https://www.sanfordhealth.org/locations/sanford-medical-center-fargo/"}, "range": [200, 600], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 12235, "unit": "students", "basis": "sourced", "why": "IPEDS-compiled total for colleges physically in Fargo; NDSU is almost all of it. Moorhead’s two universities sit across the river and are excluded. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "College Evaluator (IPEDS)", "date": "2024-2025", "url": "https://www.collegeevaluator.com/state/north-dakota/fargo/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [10000, 25000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Annual events", "value": "Downtown Street Fair (July, 100,000+ visitors); Fargo Marathon (May, ~10,000–11,000 runners); Red River Valley Fair (July); F-M Pride Week (August); NDSU Bison football Saturdays at the Fargodome (fall, ~19,000)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the sourced annual events that actually fill downtown, close streets, or pack the dome — named only where a page states the event and month.", "math": "Street Fair: Downtown Community Partnership, 50th annual July 16–18 2026, more than 100,000 visitors. Marathon: InForum, 22nd Fargo Marathon in May; 2025 had more than 11,000 participants, 2026 expo said 10,000 signed up. Red River Valley Fair: Visit Fargo-Moorhead, July 3–12. F-M Pride Week: Visit Fargo-Moorhead, August 3–10. Bison football: NDSU athletics, Fargodome packs in 19,000 and draws 100,000+ fans a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Minimum TNC liability limits", "value": "$1,000,000 CSL (passenger on board); 50/100/25 logged-in, no passenger", "unit": "limits", "basis": "sourced", "why": "North Dakota’s Insurance Department restates NDCC 26.1-40.1-03 and 26.1-40.1-04: TNC coverage must be $1 million primary for death, bodily injury and property damage while a passenger is on board, and 50/100/25 plus UM/UIM/PIP while logged in with no passenger. This is the state TNC floor, not ordinary personal-auto 25/50/25.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "North Dakota Insurance Department", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.insurance.nd.gov/consumers/insurance/auto", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 2 of the 4 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [25000, 2000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration", "value": "TNC: ordinary ND passenger plates only, $73–$274/yr by weight and year first registered ($93 for a typical 3,200–4,499 lb car first registered 2021+). No extra TNC plate.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "TNC vehicles stay on ordinary passenger plates (NDCC 39-34-03 requires proof of registration; 39-34-06 bars cities from licensing TNC drivers). The 2026 NDDOT MVD-2 passenger fee schedule is the payment. Fargo’s $100/yr taxi/vehicle-for-hire license covering 3 vehicles (Auditor’s Office) does not apply to TNC drivers.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "North Dakota DOT Motor Vehicle Division, MVD-2 Passenger Fee Schedule", "date": "2026-01", "url": "https://www.dot.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/Motor%20Vehicle%20Services/mvd-2-passenger-fee-2026.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 7 of the 13 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [49, 400], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 140, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Fargo’s 20 Feb 2026 release on the Roberts Commons Garage, a downtown public garage, states monthly parking starts at $140. That is the city’s published monthly rate, not street parking (time-limited, unpaid) and not a private lot.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Fargo", "date": "2026-02", "url": "https://fargond.gov/news-events/city-news-releases/post-detail?id=6998778000a0153fb2516878", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.754, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0828 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.99x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00150 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.57x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.75x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.38, 1.51], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0869, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Fargo who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.75x: 0.1152 x 0.75 = 0.0869. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0348 to 0.2172, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0348, 0.2172], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.4, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.4. The MEDIAN, 2.4, is used; the draws spanned 2.3 to 2.4, a factor of 1.04. With only 0.0828 of households carless and a 15.5-minute mean commute, even residents who take a ride-hail in a given month use it for a couple of occasions, not daily travel.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0675, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "552,860 boardings at FAR in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 8,185,600 visitors a year = 0.068. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95.", "source": null, "range": [0.034, 0.101], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "552,860 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 552,860; FAA CY2024 enplanements for FAR = 552,860 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.24, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.28, 0.28, 0.24, 0.24, 0.24. The MEDIAN, 0.24, is used; the draws spanned 0.24 to 0.28, a factor of 1.17. FAR is only 3.9 miles from the centre with no rail, so a minority of air parties take a short taxi or ride-hail, but a 552,860-enplanement Midwest airport still routes most visiting parties to a rental car or a pickup.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.55, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.55, 0.5, 0.45, 0.7, 0.8. The MEDIAN, 0.55, is used; the draws spanned 0.45 to 0.8, a factor of 1.78. A 1.8-night stay in a 15.5-minute-commute, 51.9-square-mile city leaves room for at most one paid local ride, and most of 8,185,600 visitors did not fly so they already have a car.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.582, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.068 arriving by air x 0.240 of those hiring a ride = 0.032, plus 0.550 trips in town = 0.582 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.47 to 0.86. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 6963, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 136275 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8002 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0869 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.4 (our estimate); Annual visitors (2025) = 8185600 (worked out from published figures); Average visiting party size = 2.1 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.582 (our estimate). Residents: 136,275 people x 0.8002 adults = 109,047 adults; x 0.0869 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 9,476 people; x 2.4 trips each a month = 22,743 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 748 resident rides a day. Visitors: 8,185,600 a year / 2.1 people in a party = 3,897,905 visiting parties; x 0.582 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 6,215 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 89% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 6,963 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 5,264 rides a day, and at its own high bound 11,022. The 6,963 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: ND Century Code 39-34-05 makes Uber and Lyft file with NDDOT twice a year, but the published memos (e.g. Dec 2019 and Dec 2020 at ndlegis.gov) list political subdivisions, accidents, and violations — not trip counts. NDDOT's ND Sober Ride program reported 784 rides statewide over St. Patrick's 2026 (265 Lyft + 519 Uber), a holiday promo, not a Fargo market total (https://www.dot.nd.gov/news/nd-sober-ride-marks-five-years-record-st-patricks-day-usage). (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: Fargo licenses taxis (Ordinance 5381) and requires daily manifests, but the city does not publish trip totals; state law preempts local TNC rules. No Cass County or Fargo open-data TNC trip file was found. (3) Airport: Hector International Airport published 1,179,442 total passengers for calendar 2025 (https://www.fargoairport.com/december-2025-year-end-statistics/) and states Uber/Lyft operate, but it does not publish TNC or taxi pickup counts. (4) MPO: FM Metro COG's 2021 travel-demand model (Streetlight OD, 671,994 internal vehicle trips) and 2024/2025 Metro Profile report all-vehicle and MATBUS volumes, not TNC/taxi counts; the older Metro Grow survey (n=287) listed TNC as a secondary mode with no volumes. (5) Local reporting: InForum and Valley News Live cover Uber/Lyft availability and sober-ride codes; none quote an annual or monthly paid-ride total for Fargo. Uber's Fargo driver page says 'Thousands of riders request rides with Uber every day' — recruiting copy, not a measured series, so it is not used as a count. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [1741, 27854], "editable": true, "low": 5264, "high": 11022, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: ND Century Code 39-34-05 makes Uber and Lyft file with NDDOT twice a year, but the published memos (e.g. Dec 2019 and Dec 2020 at ndlegis.gov) list political subdivisions, accidents, and violations — not trip counts. NDDOT's ND Sober Ride program reported 784 rides statewide over St. Patrick's 2026 (265 Lyft + 519 Uber), a holiday promo, not a Fargo market total (https://www.dot.nd.gov/news/nd-sober-ride-marks-five-years-record-st-patricks-day-usage). (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: Fargo licenses taxis (Ordinance 5381) and requires daily manifests, but the city does not publish trip totals; state law preempts local TNC rules. No Cass County or Fargo open-data TNC trip file was found. (3) Airport: Hector International Airport published 1,179,442 total passengers for calendar 2025 (https://www.fargoairport.com/december-2025-year-end-statistics/) and states Uber/Lyft operate, but it does not publish TNC or taxi pickup counts. (4) MPO: FM Metro COG's 2021 travel-demand model (Streetlight OD, 671,994 internal vehicle trips) and 2024/2025 Metro Profile report all-vehicle and MATBUS volumes, not TNC/taxi counts; the older Metro Grow survey (n=287) listed TNC as a secondary mode with no volumes. (5) Local reporting: InForum and Valley News Live cover Uber/Lyft availability and sober-ride codes; none quote an annual or monthly paid-ride total for Fargo. Uber's Fargo driver page says 'Thousands of riders request rides with Uber every day' — recruiting copy, not a measured series, so it is not used as a count.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 6963, "our_range_per_day": [1741, 27854]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "136,275 people", "federal": "the note says 136,275; the Census file says Fargo city 136,275 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Fargo is split: Xcel/NSP is the majority wires utility (~two-thirds of city franchise-fee revenue); Cass County Electric Cooperative serves the rest, especially south/growing areas, with a different TOD shape (cheap midday and overnight, expensive 6–9 a.m. and 4–8 p.m.). Overnight all-in $0.079 is Xcel volumetric (energy 4.365¢ + YTD 2026 fuel 2.581¢ + RER 0.2437¢ + TCR 0.3913¢ + 4% Fargo city fee); it excludes the $22/month Small General customer charge. Fuel moves monthly (Sep 2026 was $0.03503, above the YTD average used here). Xcel also offers Limited Off-Peak Service for separately metered loads energized only 10:00 p.m.–6:30 a.m. at the same 4.365¢ energy charge. Tesla Supercharger public prices in town were $0.51 (23rd Ave) and $0.60 peak (45th St) in mid-September 2026; confirm in the Tesla app.", "demand": "All visitor figures are for calendar year 2025 (Tourism Economics published July 2026; Visit Fargo-Moorhead 2025 annual report). visitors_year is Cass County person-trips ($1,080.5 million / $132), not a Fargo-city unique headcount and not Visit Fargo-Moorhead's 5.7 million 90+ mile visitor-days — mixing those would jump the pack by year and by geography. Established Census facts used in the chain: population 136275, land area 51.888 sq mi, county population 201794, 18+ share 0.8002, no-vehicle households 0.0828, mean commute 15.5 minutes, taxi/ride-hail commute 0.0015, transit commute 0.0058, WFH 0.0983, median household income $66998. North Dakota does not publish TNC trip totals the way Nevada's Taxicab Authority does. MATBUS 946,096 unlinked trips (FTA NTD 2024, City of Fargo) are transit, not paid ride-hail, and were not used as rides_reported.", "geography": "City vs metro: this pack is Fargo city (136,275; 51.888 sq mi). The urban fabric is Fargo + West Fargo + Moorhead (Visit FM metro pop 262,620 on the history page — a CVB figure, not Census). College 12,235 is Fargo-located schools (IPEDS via College Evaluator); NDSU official fall 2025 census is 11,952 (InForum, 2025-09-24), identical to 2024 and 2023. Concordia (~1,935) and MSUM (~4,386) are in Moorhead, MN, about 3 miles away — exclude them for city enrollment, include them if the fleet covers the metro. Hospital 284 is Sanford’s own published count for the 2017 south-side Level I tower (5225 23rd Ave S); the page does not say staffed vs licensed. Essentia Health-Fargo is a separate 133-bed Level II hospital at 3000 32nd Ave S. CMS cost-report “staffed beds” for Sanford’s combined Fargo entity can run higher because Children’s and South University are sometimes rolled into one number — do not silently swap 284 for that. Employer FTEs (Sanford 6,278 etc.) are from Wikipedia’s table of the city’s 2025 ACFR, not the ACFR PDF itself. Airport daily departures derived from Hector’s 7,573 air-carrier landings in 2025 (airport site, posted 2026-01-21); do not confuse with the settled FAA 2024 enplanements figure. Equivalent radius 4.06 mi understates the N–S reach of south Fargo.", "costs": "Insurance figures are the state TNC statutory floors (NDCC ch. 26.1-40.1), restated by the Insurance Department; Fargo’s taxi application separately asks for $1,000,000 commercial liability, which is a city taxi rule, not the TNC statute. Registration: TNC drivers need ordinary passenger plates only — NDCC 39-34-06 (opened at https://ndlegis.gov/cencode/t39c34.pdf) forbids a political subdivision from requiring a TNC license. Fargo still publishes a $100/year Transportation Vehicles / vehicle-for-hire license including 3 vehicles (https://fargond.gov/city-government/departments/auditors/licensing-department/business-occupational-licensing and the city application at https://download.fargond.gov/0/vehicle_for_hire-application_new.pdf, fee printed as License Fee $100); that is for taxis, not TNCs. Parking $140 is the city-published starting monthly rate at Roberts Commons (Feb 2026). Local news in Nov 2025 reported $115 reserved at the new NP Garage; that figure is not on the city page cited here. Street parking downtown is time-limited rather than metered; the $140 is a garage monthly space."}, "gaps": ["power_utility: 5 utilities file a service territory for Cass County, and the two largest -- Northern States Power Co - Minnesota with 82,987 customers and Cass County Elec Coop Inc with 51,968 -- are close enough in size that the county file cannot say which one this city is on. No utility and no utility rate were taken from it; the question goes to the research pass instead.", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 76, "sourced": 28, "derived": 31, "estimated": 17}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_candidates", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 28, "primary": 21, "secondary": 7, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 48, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 38, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 38, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 16, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility_candidates", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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"noaa\\US1NDCS0001.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1594, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1NDCS0001.csv"}, "noaa\\USC00322860.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 23054, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00322860.csv"}, "noaa\\US1NDCS0004.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1522, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1NDCS0004.csv"}, "noaa\\USC00215586.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 41546, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00215586.csv"}}, "downloads_this_run": 0, "cache_reuses_this_run": 32, "not_bulk_sourced_and_why": "What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 38, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 16, "citations_checked": 12, "citations_passed": 12, "citations_failed": 0, "primary": 5, "secondary": 7, "derived_downgraded": 0, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 3825700 -- Fargo city, North Dakota", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 3825700 -- Fargo city", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 38017 -- Cass County, North Dakota", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid FAR -- Hector International, Fargo ND", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid FAR -- Hector International, Fargo ND", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid FAR -- Hector International, Fargo ND", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "North Dakota, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "North Dakota, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "North Dakota, June 2026 YTD", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_candidates", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Cass County, ND", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "climate_station", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "FARGO 3S, ND US (USC00322860), 2.9 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "MOORHEAD, MN US (USC00215586), 4.1 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US3825700, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 22020 -- Fargo, ND-MN", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "labour_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://fargond.gov/city-government/departments/city-commission/agendas-minutes/2023-minutes-video-archive/july-31-2023-minutes", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 6 of the 6 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://dcfctracker.com/stations/158383", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.psc.nd.gov/webdocs/case/24-0376/112-010.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 7 of the 10 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://matbus.com/services-partners/fm-ridesource", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://matbus.com/riding-matbus/frequently-asked-questions", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.sanfordhealth.org/locations/sanford-medical-center-fargo/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.collegeevaluator.com/state/north-dakota/fargo/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.insurance.nd.gov/consumers/insurance/auto", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 2 of the 4 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.dot.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/Motor%20Vehicle%20Services/mvd-2-passenger-fee-2026.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 7 of the 13 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://fargond.gov/news-events/city-news-releases/post-detail?id=6998778000a0153fb2516878", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1838.3}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "fargo-nd", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.24, "draws": [0.28, 0.28, 0.24, 0.24, 0.24], "min": 0.24, "max": 0.28, "spread_x": 1.17}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.55, "draws": [0.55, 0.5, 0.45, 0.7, 0.8], "min": 0.45, "max": 0.8, "spread_x": 1.78}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.4, "draws": [2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.4], "min": 2.3, "max": 2.4, "spread_x": 1.04}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [5264, 11022]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: ND Century Code 39-34-05 makes Uber and Lyft file with NDDOT twice a year, but the published memos (e.g. Dec 2019 and Dec 2020 at ndlegis.gov) list political subdivisions, accidents, and violations — not trip counts. NDDOT's ND Sober Ride program reported 784 rides statewide over St. Patrick's 2026 (265 Lyft + 519 Uber), a holiday promo, not a Fargo market total (https://www.dot.nd.gov/news/nd-sober-ride-marks-five-years-record-st-patricks-day-usage). (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports: Fargo licenses taxis (Ordinance 5381) and requires daily manifests, but the city does not publish trip totals; state law preempts local TNC rules. No Cass County or Fargo open-data TNC trip file was found. (3) Airport: Hector International Airport published 1,179,442 total passengers for calendar 2025 (https://www.fargoairport.com/december-2025-year-end-statistics/) and states Uber/Lyft operate, but it does not publish TNC or taxi pickup counts. (4) MPO: FM Metro COG's 2021 travel-demand model (Streetlight OD, 671,994 internal vehicle trips) and 2024/2025 Metro Profile report all-vehicle and MATBUS volumes, not TNC/taxi counts; the older Metro Grow survey (n=287) listed TNC as a secondary mode with no volumes. (5) Local reporting: InForum and Valley News Live cover Uber/Lyft availability and sober-ride codes; none quote an annual or monthly paid-ride total for Fargo. Uber's Fargo driver page says 'Thousands of riders request rides with Uber every day' — recruiting copy, not a measured series, so it is not used as a count.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 6963, "our_range_per_day": [1741, 27854]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 76 numbers behind a season in Fargo, 28 are published figures, 31 are worked out from published figures, and 17 are our own estimates. 38 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [46.8647, -96.82908], "geoid": "3825700", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Fargo city", "population": 136275, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Cass County", "population": 201794, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 11, "dcfc_ports": 40, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "CCEC CHARGERS WEST ACRES", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 0.9, "open_date": "2020-09-12"}, {"name": "Fargo, ND - 45th Street South - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 12, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 1.7, "open_date": "2024-07-30"}, {"name": "CCEC CHARGERS FM CVB LEVEL 3", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 1.8, "open_date": "2021-01-27"}, {"name": "LUTHER FAMILY BUICK GMC", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.3, "open_date": "2022-11-24"}, {"name": "Flying J 685", "network": "eVgo Network", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.3, "open_date": "2025-08-09"}, {"name": "CITY OF FARGO DCFC1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2021-12-03"}, {"name": "Menards West Fargo 3036 (West Fargo, ND)", "network": "Electrify America", "ports": 6, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2024-12-22"}, {"name": "Luther Family Ford (DCFC)", "network": "Blink Network", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.5, "open_date": "2024-05-13"}, {"name": "Fargo, ND - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 2.9, "open_date": "2020-05-30"}, {"name": "CCEC CHARGERS HORNBACHERS", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 3.8, "open_date": "2020-09-01"}, {"name": "MSTATE PUBLIC CPE250-1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 3.9, "open_date": "2025-10-16"}], "l2_sites": 23, "l2_ports": 60, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "CCEC CHARGERS WEST ACRES", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 0.9, "city": "Fargo", "state": "ND"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 8, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 5, "claims": 13, "records_touched": 10, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 38}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "8 fast-charging stalls (Tesla Supercharger)", "claim_text": "Posted public (non-member) price at the Tesla Supercharger at 5680 23rd Avenue South, Fargo (8 stalls, up to 250 kW), as republished from Tesla’s public pricing on 2026-09-13.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note counts 8 stalls; the snapshot lists Fargo, ND - Tesla Supercharger with 8 fast ports 2.9 mi from the town center (TESLA)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "The larger Scheels Supercharger at 1551 45th St S was $0.60/kWh public peak / $0.48 off-peak the same week.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Fargo, ND - 45th Street South - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 12 fast ports, 1.7 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "ChargePoint fast charging here", "claim_text": "City of Fargo’s own ChargePoint DCFC (62.5 kW at 225 4th St N) was $0.40/kWh plus a $4.95 minimum.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists CCEC CHARGERS WEST ACRES (ChargePoint Network, 1 fast ports, 0.9 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "night_share", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Sanford Medical Center Fargo 543 staffed beds on night shifts;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "districts_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Sanford’s 284-bed 2017 hospital is at 5225 23rd Ave S on the south side, with Microsoft’s regional campus also south.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Beds from each hospital’s own site (Sanford 284, Essentia 133).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "284 is the bed count the hospital itself publishes for the 2017 Level I tower.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "552,860 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "552,860 boardings at FAR in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 8,185,600 visitors a year = 0.068.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 552,860; FAA CY2024 enplanements for FAR = 552,860 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "136,275 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 136,275 people x 0.8002 adults = 109,047 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 136,275; the Census file says Fargo city 136,275 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Tesla Supercharger public prices in town were $0.51 (23rd Ave) and $0.60 peak (45th St) in mid-September 2026;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Fargo, ND - 45th Street South - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 12 fast ports, 1.7 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "136,275 people", "claim_text": "Established Census facts used in the chain: population 136275, land area 51.888 sq mi, county population 201794, 18+ share 0.8002, no-vehicle households 0.0828, mean commute 15.5 minutes, taxi/ride-hail commute 0.0015, transit commute 0.0058, WFH 0.0983, median household income $66998.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 136,275; the Census file says Fargo city 136,275 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "201,794 people", "claim_text": "Established Census facts used in the chain: population 136275, land area 51.888 sq mi, county population 201794, 18+ share 0.8002, no-vehicle households 0.0828, mean commute 15.5 minutes, taxi/ride-hail commute 0.0015, transit commute 0.0058, WFH 0.0983, median household income $66998.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 201,794; the Census file says Cass County 201,794 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Essentia Health-Fargo is a separate 133-bed Level II hospital at 3000 32nd Ave S.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "This pack's build-time citation check reported no failures, so there was nothing to re-fetch on 2026-09-24.", "counts": {"rechecked": 0, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 0, "passes_the_same_test_now": 0, "still_fails_the_same_test": 0, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "Every citation in this pack passed when it was built.", "citations": []}}, "ok": true}