{"id": "dover-tn", "label": "Dover, TN", "city": "Dover", "state": "TN", "county": "Stewart County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 1918, "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "counts": {"total": 79, "sourced": 23, "derived": 33, "estimated": 23}, "gaps": 4, "citations": {"checked": 10, "passed": 6, "failed": 4}, "research_cost_usd": 4.1456, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 79 numbers behind a season in Dover, 23 are published figures, 33 are worked out from published figures, and 23 are our own estimates. 42 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "dover-tn", "city": "Dover", "state": "TN", "label": "Dover, TN", "county": "Stewart County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 1918, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Dover city, Tennessee.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 4721400 -- Dover city, Tennessee"}, "range": [959, 3836], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 3.867, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Dover city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_47.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 4721400 -- Dover city"}, "range": [1.9, 7.7], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 496, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "1,918 residents divided by 3.867 square miles of land = 496 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [198, 1240], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 14439, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Stewart County, Tennessee. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 47161 -- Stewart County, Tennessee"}, "range": [7219, 28878], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Barkley Regional", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "PAH", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 13456, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY"}, "range": [6728, 26912], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 3.1, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 13,456 against CY2023 13,057, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (13,456 - 13,057) / 13,057 = 3.1%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 65.1, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (36.482137, -87.844365, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (37.060295, -88.772965, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 65.1 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [32.5, 162.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "Nashville International (BNA) 69 mi away, 12,058,688 boardings a year; Evansville Regional (EVV) 109 mi away, 189,706 boardings a year; Veterans Airport of Southern Illinois (MWA) 109 mi away, 13,816 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1407, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Tennessee in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Tennessee, June 2026"}, "range": [0.07, 0.281], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1394, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Tennessee, June 2026"}, "range": [0.07, 0.279], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.139, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Tennessee, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.07, 0.278], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Cumberland Elec Member Corp", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Stewart County, TN -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Cumberland Elec Member Corp (#4624), Stewart County County rows, TN"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1299, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Cumberland Elec Member Corp, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Cumberland Elec Member Corp: residential revenue of $213,610.0 thousand against 1,643,858 MWh sold. (213,610.0 x 1,000 dollars) / (1,643,858 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1299 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.065, 0.26], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1294, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Cumberland Elec Member Corp: commercial revenue of $73,133.0 thousand against 565,206 MWh sold, so $0.1294 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.065, 0.259], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00402589", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00402589.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 58.6, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00402589: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 58.6F.", "source": null, "range": [43.6, 73.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 36.7, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00402589", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00402589.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [21.7, 51.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 78.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00402589", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00402589.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [63.4, 93.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 54.8, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00402589: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 54.80 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [27.4, 98.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 100.2, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00402589: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 100.2 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 3.8, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00402589, 1.0 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 3.8 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 2.3, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00402589", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00402589.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8139, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Dover, TN, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: total population 1,956, of whom 364 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (1,956 - 364) / 1,956 = 0.8139.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 75190, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Dover, TN. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US4721400, B19013_E001"}, "range": [37595, 150380], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0493, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Dover, TN with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: 689 occupied households, of which 8 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 26 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (8 + 26) / 689 = 0.0493, or 4.9%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.7182, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: 655 of 912 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.7182, or 71.82%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: 0 of 912 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: 0 of 912 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0526, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: 48 of 912 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0526, or 5.26%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 28.4, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Dover, TN. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US4721400: 24,530 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 864 workers who did not work from home = 28.4 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 14.06, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Clarksville, TN-KY, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Clarksville, TN-KY', 240 people employed in it: median hourly wage $14.06. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 14.06 / 16.96 = 0.829.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 17300 -- Clarksville, TN-KY"}, "range": [8.44, 25.31], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 14.06, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Clarksville, TN-KY"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Clarksville, TN-KY are paid a median of $14.06 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 240 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 83% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.829, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Clarksville, TN-KY' is $14.06 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 14.06 / 16.96 = 0.829. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.526, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $743 a month in Dover, TN (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 743 / 1413 = 0.526.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 29, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.829 = $29.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [12, 73], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 60, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.829 = $60.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [24, 150], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 125, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.829 = $125.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [50, 313], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 670, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.526 = $670 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [268, 2011], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 281, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,049.83 in TN against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1049.83 / 1281.60 = 0.819. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.819 = $281 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [112, 843], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1049.83, "unit": "$/year", "note": "TN average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 239, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$281 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $239. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [96, 717], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.098, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Imposed midnight-to-06:00 rate for a small operator; CEMC publishes no time-of-day tariff for residential or small-commercial customers (only seasonal energy charges), so this is a typical overnight shape that still averages to the utility's EIA-861 2024 bundled residential price.", "math": "CEMC Schedule RS and GSA have no intra-day split (confirmed in the July 2026 tariff PDF). Hours: 6 off-peak + 10 mid + 8 on-peak. 6 × 0.098 + 10 × 0.125 + 8 × 0.160 = 3.118; 3.118 / 24 = 0.12992, matching the published $0.1299/kWh average. The ~76% of average off-peak factor is an imposed typical co-op shape, not a published CEMC fact; likely conservative because the co-op has only seasonal (not time-of-day) variation.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.125, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Imposed 06:00-to-16:00 rate; CEMC has no published time-of-use tariff a small operator could take, so the three-period split is a shape we imposed on the utility's flat bundled residential average.", "math": "Same imposed shape as power_offpeak: 6 × 0.098 + 10 × 0.125 + 8 × 0.160 = 3.118 / 24 hours = 0.12992 matching the EIA-861 $0.1299/kWh residential average. Mid-day set near the average because CEMC rates are seasonal-flat, not intra-day.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.22], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.16, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Imposed 16:00-to-midnight rate; no CEMC time-of-use window exists for small customers, so this evening peak is part of an imposed shape averaging to the published bundled residential price.", "math": "Same arithmetic: 6 × 0.098 + 10 × 0.125 + 8 × 0.160 = 3.118; divided by 24 hours equals 0.12992, the EIA-861 2024 CEMC residential average of $0.1299/kWh. On-peak ~123% of average is a conventional imposed TOU shape, not from any CEMC tariff.", "source": null, "range": [0.1, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charger", "value": 0.46, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Typical public DC fast-charging price in Tennessee (Tesla Supercharger, Electrify America and similar networks); Dover itself has zero public EV charging stations of any kind.", "math": "No public DCFC exists inside Dover city limits (NREL/AFDC-derived directories list 0 stations within 10 miles). Statewide estimated public DCFC rate of $0.46/kWh (range $0.41–$0.55) is therefore used; Tesla standard rate in TN is around $0.50/kWh. This is higher than home rates because public networks add markup, idle fees and demand charges.", "source": null, "range": [0.25, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public charger of any kind here", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Parker Ford, 27.1 mi away (2 ports, J1772COMBO); 0 Level 2 sites (0 ports) -- agrees with the note", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "no; CEMC offers only seasonal (not time-of-day) rates on Schedule RS residential and GSA small-commercial; TOU GSB/GSC/GSD exist solely for contract demand greater than 5,000 kW", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Direct from CEMC's own July 2026 rate schedule PDF; a small overnight-charging operator cannot take a time-of-use tariff. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://cemc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/RATES-2026-FCA210202607.pdf: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi services on the ground", "value": "Uber lists Dover as served 24/7 but with longer waits than in bigger cities; aggregators also list Lyft; no dedicated local taxi company. Supply is very thin.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Operator page is the primary confirmation that the app will accept a request here, while the wait-time warning and absence of any local cab firm show how thin the actual fleet is. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Uber", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/dover-tn-us/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["none", "Uber+Lyft+local taxi"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus and evening/weekend service", "value": "No fixed-route bus. Mid-Cumberland HRA curb-to-curb demand-response only, weekdays 6 a.m.–6 p.m. with advance booking; none evenings or weekends.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "This is the only public transit covering Stewart County/Dover; no evening or weekend service means those trips fall to cars or a paid ride. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.mchratransit.org/about: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["none", "fixed-route evenings"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 4.0, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Town land area is the strongest local geography; the 28.4-minute mean commute shows many paid trips also leave town, so the average sits above a pure in-town hop.", "math": "Land area 3.867 sq mi implies a characteristic dimension of about 2 miles (circle diameter ~2.2 mi). In-town hops average ~1.5 mi. Mean one-way commute 28.4 min implies many workers travel ~12–15 mi out of town (Clarksville/Fort Campbell). Blend 65% local 1.5 mi + 35% out-of-town ~9 mi = 4.1 mi, rounded to 4. Stepped down from national ride-hail averages (~6–8 mi) onto this town’s size and commute. Likely conservative if more Clarksville trips materialize.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 12], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.62, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Most in-town errands and Fort Donelson hops fit under 3 miles given the 3.867 sq mi footprint.", "math": "Town diameter ~2.2 mi so a large majority of intra-Dover trips are under 3 mi. Allow ~38% longer (commute/shopping to Clarksville or county). 0.62 is a step-down from denser-city short-trip shares onto this compact but commute-heavy geography.", "source": null, "range": [0.35, 0.85], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.14, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Clarksville and Fort Campbell sit well over 10 miles; those are the only regular long paid-ride destinations.", "math": "Complement of the short-share estimate: remaining trips split between 3–10 mi county hops and >10 mi Clarksville/airport runs. 0.14 of all paid trips over 10 mi. Uses the 28.4-min commute as evidence that some (not most) demand is long.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.35], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.09, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No college, no 24-hour hospital, county nightlife graded C, and no evening bus; night demand is only residual bar/close-of-shift traffic.", "math": "National ride-hail night shares often 0.15–0.20 in cities with bars and hospitals. Dover has a weekday-only clinic (not a hospital with night shifts), no college, and thin bars. Step down to 0.09. Likely conservative — even this may overstate 21:00–03:00 volume given how quiet the town is after dark.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 151151, "unit": "visits/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Calendar year 2025 National Park Service recreation visits to Fort Donelson National Battlefield (nearest city Dover), the dominant visitor flow; Wikipedia compiles the NPS annual report. This is park entries, not lodging nights in town, and most arrive by private car. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "National Park Service (via Wikipedia)", "date": "2026-03", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Donelson_National_Battlefield", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 151,151 on the same line as 'visitors'"}, "range": [50000, 250000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 3.1, "unit": "people", "basis": "derived", "why": "Only published on-site visitor survey for this park; parties share one vehicle so headcount is not ride count.", "math": "2007 NPS Visitor Services Project: 10% groups of 1, 35% of 2, 16% of 3, 18% of 4, 21% of 5+ (treat 5+ as 5.5) → 0.10+0.70+0.48+0.72+1.155 = 3.155, rounded to 3.1. Survey is old but the only local party-size measurement; family-heavy battlefield mix is still plausible.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 4.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights a visiting party stays", "value": 0.5, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Park visitors are overwhelmingly day-trippers; Dover has little lodging so overnight stays are short and uncommon.", "math": "2007 VSP: 94% of groups visited in a single day (average 3 hours on site), 6% multi-day. If the 6% average 2 nights, overall mean nights ≈ 0.12. Add some Land Between the Lakes / cabin stays and round to 0.5. Statewide TN overnight visitors average 3.2 nights, but that figure is for people who already chose to stay overnight somewhere in the state — not this day-trip battlefield. Direction: likely high if anything; true mean nights in Dover itself is probably lower.", "source": null, "range": [0.1, 2.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitors_year"]}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Independently reported paid rides", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No published taxi or TNC trip count exists for Dover or Stewart County; zero is the auditable finding, not a claim that zero rides occur.", "math": "Checked in the required order: (1) Tennessee has no state taxicab/TNC authority publishing trip totals (Dept. of Safety issues for-hire endorsements only; Nashville TLC covers Metro Nashville, not Stewart). (2) City of Dover and Stewart County publish no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files. (3) Clarksville Outlaw Field (CKV) lists Uber/Lyft availability but no ground-transport pickup counts; BNA is ~70 miles away. (4) Clarksville Urbanized Area MPO notes Uber/Lyft operate in the Clarksville MPA but gives no trip volumes; Dover is outside that urbanized area; GNRC (Nashville) likewise has none for Stewart. (5) No local news story quoting any of the above. Absence is therefore documented rather than assumed.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CKV", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CKV (Outlaw Fld) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City geography type", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Dover is a compact county-seat town of 3.867 sq mi and about 1,900 people on the Cumberland River; downtown, the US-79 strip, and Fort Donelson sit within a couple of minutes of each other, so one car covers everything.", "math": "Population 1918 and land area 3.867 sq mi from the settled federal files; Wikipedia and the city site describe a single downtown west of which Fort Donelson sits, with no separate commercial nodes or satellite districts a fleet would treat independently.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "1,918 people", "federal": "the note says 1,918; the Census file says Dover city 1,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 1.11, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published edge-to-centre distance; the equivalent circular radius of the Census land area is the right compact-town figure for a fleet covering the built-up area.", "math": "Land area 3.867 sq mi. r = sqrt(3.867 / π) = sqrt(3.867 / 3.1416) = sqrt(1.231) ≈ 1.11 miles. The town is not a long ribbon; actual built-up extent is similar. Likely slightly conservative if measuring to the farthest residential cul-de-sac.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 1, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A single compact county seat: downtown, highway strip, riverfront and Fort Donelson are adjacent, not separate demand pools a fleet must choose between.", "math": "At 1.11 mi equivalent radius and ~1,900 residents there is one continuous built-up area. Fort Donelson is immediately west of downtown, not a second town. Count = 1.", "source": null, "range": [1, 4], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["geography_type"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "1,900 people", "federal": "the note says 1,900; the Census file says Dover city 1,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Districts", "value": "compact downtown around the courthouse and US-79 / Donelson Parkway, Fort Donelson National Battlefield immediately west, Cumberland riverfront", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the only locally distinct places inside the one-radius town so a planner can label stops, not because they are separate fleet districts.", "math": "Wikipedia: Fort Donelson is west of downtown Dover. US-79 (Donelson Parkway) is the spine. All of it is inside ~1 mile of the courthouse.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport scheduled flights", "value": "2 daily scheduled departures: 5:00 a.m. to Chicago ORD and 2:20 p.m. to Houston IAH (United Express / SkyWest)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Barkley Regional (PAH) is a two-flight-a-day spoke, not a hub; that is the demand pattern the planning tool needs. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Barkley Regional Airport", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://flybarkley.com/flights/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 10 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code PAH", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists PAH: Barkley Regional, Paducah KY, 13,456 CY2024 enplanements", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "Stewart County Schools (~300 jobs) and county government (~158) plus Nashville Wire Products (~125) in Dover; Fort Donelson NB (166,026 recreation visits in 2024); clinic only — no hospital, no college campus", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the named local employers and the one venue that actually fills the town; hospitals and colleges are zero in-city.", "math": "TNECD top employers in Dover: Board of Education 300, county government 158, Nashville Wire Products 125. NPS 2024 recreation visits at Fort Donelson NB = 166,026. Hospital beds and college enrollment in this pack are 0. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Hospital staffed beds', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Hospital staffed beds", "value": 0, "unit": "beds", "basis": "estimated", "why": "There is no hospital in Dover or Stewart County; bed availability is published as 0.0 per 1,000. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/tennessee/stewart-county: the cited page could not be fetched (ReadTimeout: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='www.usnews.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=45) -- and gave up after 120s of trying). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 0, "unit": "students", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Dover has no college or university campus; Stewart County’s ECD profile lists no regional higher-education institution with enrollment.", "math": "Tennessee ECD Stewart County page shows Stewart County Schools K-12 only (elem 861, middle 439, high 583) and an empty Regional Higher Education Institutions table. Nashville State Community College serves the county from other campuses. In-city college enrollment = 0.", "source": null, "range": [0, 500], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Annual events", "value": "Eagle Fest 3rd weekend of May; Halloween Festival last Saturday in October (~1,000 trick-or-treaters); Christmas Parade first Saturday in December", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the town-sponsored events that actually draw crowds, named on the city’s own site with months. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Town of Dover, TN", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.dovertn.com/area_attractions.html", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "State minimum liability limits", "value": "TNC: 50/100/25 waiting, $1M CSL during ride (TCA §55-12-141)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Tennessee statute sets explicit TNC phase-based limits; traditional taxi/for-hire often follows municipal rules or lower state financial-responsibility minimums of 25/50/15. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://law.justia.com/codes/tennessee/title-55/chapter-12/part-1/section-55-12-141/: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Dover (pop. 1,918) has no published paid downtown meters or permits; street parking is free. Nearby Clarksville charges $40-55/mo for garage permits.", "math": "No city parking ordinance or rates found for Dover TN itself. Neighbor.com private lots start at $38/mo 11 miles away. Zero is the correct operating assumption for this town.", "source": null, "range": [0, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire vehicle registration and fees", "value": "Intrastate motor-carrier authority (~$50 app + $8/vehicle) plus standard passenger plate ~$24 and $2.50 for-hire DL endorsement; no extra city permit found in Dover", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "TN DOR Motor Carrier unit handles for-hire passenger vehicles; exact current form fees not retrieved as a live HTML page this session, so assembled from published snippets and DL fee schedule.", "math": "Typical TN DOR Form RV-F1315501 new-authority $50 + $8 per vehicle; TCA 55-4-111 passenger registration $23.75; TN DL for-hire endorsement $2.50. Dover itself publishes no local taxi/TNC ordinance.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.384, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0493 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.59x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.38x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.19, 0.77], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0443, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Dover who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.38x: 0.1152 x 0.38 = 0.0443. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0177 to 0.1108, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0177, 0.1108], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.2, 2.4, 2, 2.5, 2. The MEDIAN, 2.2, is used; the draws spanned 2 to 2.5, a factor of 1.25. Only 0.0493 of households have no vehicle in a 1918-person town, so even residents who use ride-hail in a month take just a couple of trips.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "No air-arrival share could be built: the nearest commercial airport is too far away to be this town's. It is set to zero, which means the airport transfer contributes nothing to the visitor trip count and this chain is a FLOOR for any town whose visitors do fly in.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 0.05], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.08, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.08, 0.12, 0.07, 0.1, 0.08. The MEDIAN, 0.08, is used; the draws spanned 0.07 to 0.12, a factor of 1.71. PAH is 65.1 miles from the centre and boarded only 13,456 passengers, so arriving parties almost always rent a car instead of paying for a long taxi or ride-hail.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "13,456 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 13,456; FAA CY2024 enplanements for PAH = 13,456 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.15, 0.25, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2. The MEDIAN, 0.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.15 to 0.25, a factor of 1.67. Average stay is only 0.5 nights in a 3.867-square-mile town, so a visiting party takes essentially no intra-stay ride-hail or taxi trips.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.000 arriving by air x 0.080 of those hiring a ride = 0.000, plus 0.200 trips in town = 0.200 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.15 to 0.25. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 32, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 1918 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8139 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0443 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.2 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 151151 (a published figure); Average visiting party size = 3.1 (worked out from published figures); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.2 (our estimate). Residents: 1,918 people x 0.8139 adults = 1,561 adults; x 0.0443 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 69 people; x 2.2 trips each a month = 152 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 5 resident rides a day. Visitors: 151,151 a year / 3.1 people in a party = 48,758 visiting parties; x 0.2 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 27 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 84% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 32 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 22 rides a day, and at its own high bound 48. The 32 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in the required order: (1) Tennessee has no state taxicab/TNC authority publishing trip totals (Dept. of Safety issues for-hire endorsements only; Nashville TLC covers Metro Nashville, not Stewart). (2) City of Dover and Stewart County publish no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files. (3) Clarksville Outlaw Field (CKV) lists Uber/Lyft availability but no ground-transport pickup counts; BNA is ~70 miles away. (4) Clarksville Urbanized Area MPO notes Uber/Lyft operate in the Clarksville MPA but gives no trip volumes; Dover is outside that urbanized area; GNRC (Nashville) likewise has none for Stewart. (5) No local news story quoting any of the above. Absence is therefore documented rather than assumed. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [8, 127], "editable": true, "low": 22, "high": 48, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order: (1) Tennessee has no state taxicab/TNC authority publishing trip totals (Dept. of Safety issues for-hire endorsements only; Nashville TLC covers Metro Nashville, not Stewart). (2) City of Dover and Stewart County publish no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files. (3) Clarksville Outlaw Field (CKV) lists Uber/Lyft availability but no ground-transport pickup counts; BNA is ~70 miles away. (4) Clarksville Urbanized Area MPO notes Uber/Lyft operate in the Clarksville MPA but gives no trip volumes; Dover is outside that urbanized area; GNRC (Nashville) likewise has none for Stewart. (5) No local news story quoting any of the above. Absence is therefore documented rather than assumed.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 32, "our_range_per_day": [8, 127]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "1,918 people", "federal": "the note says 1,918; the Census file says Dover city 1,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}], "notes": {"power": "CEMC (cemc.org) serving Dover/Stewart County publishes monthly FCA-adjusted PDFs; residential and GSA ≤50 kW are seasonal energy + fuel only, never time-of-day. No public chargers in town itself. Derived TOU shape is an editorial overlay so the planning tool can still model overnight charging; it is not a CEMC tariff fact.", "demand": "Dover is a 1,918-person county seat whose ride demand is dominated by no-vehicle households (4.93%), a 28.4-minute out-of-town commute, and day-trip Fort Donelson visitors who mostly self-drive. Public transit is weekday demand-response only. All trip-length, night, and overnight-stay figures are estimates chained from those Census and NPS facts because nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size.", "geography": "Stewart County is a hospital desert (100% inpatient outmigration). Fort Donelson (~166k NPS recreation visits in 2024) is the main visitor draw; Land Between the Lakes is nearby but outside the city. Christmas Parade date is on the city FAQ page (first Saturday in December), not the attractions page. Equivalent radius 1.11 mi is from the settled 3.867 sq mi land area; do not treat Fort Donelson acreage as extra city land. PAH service is two United Express jets a day, not a hub.", "_superseded": ["clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note"], "costs": "Dover TN (Stewart County) is a very small market; almost no primary local price lists exist for insurance, garage rents or biohazard cleaning. Figures therefore mix the few in-town listings with Clarksville (nearest city) and statewide TN averages, scaled or flagged as estimated. Median household income given in the brief ($75,190) is close to national, so little COL adjustment was applied."}, "gaps": ["visitor_air_arrival_share: the nearest commercial airport is 65 miles away, past the 35-mile line at which it stops being this town's airport, so its boardings were NOT divided by this town's visitors -- doing so would have handed a small town a large airport's traffic", "visitor_air_arrival_share: could not be built, so visitors are counted as arriving by road and the visitor stream is a floor", "generators_note: downgraded to an estimate because 'hospital_beds', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 79, "sourced": 23, "derived": 33, "estimated": 23}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 23, "primary": 17, "secondary": 6, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 56, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 42, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 42, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 17, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. What guards them instead is a plausibility band applied when the record is built, and anything outside it is flagged into `gaps` rather than accepted.", "files": {"sub-est2025.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 7464556, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 3, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv"}, "gaz_place_17.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 148881, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_17.txt"}, "co-est2025-alldata.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 2071735, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 3, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv"}, "faa-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 58201, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx"}, "faa-us-airports.json": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 3686620, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0"}, "eia-epm-table-5-06-a.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 19709, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx"}, "eia-epm-table-5-06-b.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 19788, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx"}, "eia-861-2024.zip": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 4568208, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 3, "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip"}, "noaa-normals-inventory-30yr.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1342890, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/doc/inventory_30yr.txt"}, "noaa\\USC00111550.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 24356, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00111550.csv"}, "noaa\\USW00014819.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 31524, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014819.csv"}, "noaa\\US1ILCK0014.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1558, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1ILCK0014.csv"}, "noaa\\US1ILCK0145.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1546, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1ILCK0145.csv"}, "noaa\\US1ILCK0282.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1534, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1ILCK0282.csv"}, "noaa\\US1ILCK0074.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1570, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1ILCK0074.csv"}, "noaa\\USC00111577.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 41702, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00111577.csv"}, "acs2024-b01001-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 11267969, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b01001.dat"}, "acs2024-b08301-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 4910243, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b08301.dat"}, "acs2024-b08303-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 3510917, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b08303.dat"}, "acs2024-b08013-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1608092, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b08013.dat"}, "acs2024-b25044-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 3952608, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25044.dat"}, "acs2024-b19013-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1058767, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat"}, "acs2024-b25064-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1025542, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25064.dat"}, "bls-oes2024-53-7061-national.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 120, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip"}, "bls-oes2024-area-definitions.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 147222, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 3, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/2024/may/area_definitions_m2024.xlsx"}, "bls-oes2024-53-7061-areas.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 33711, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip"}, "acs2024-b25064-us-states.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1043, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25064.dat"}, "gaz_place_04.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 47884, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_04.txt"}, "noaa\\USC00021849.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 41534, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00021849.csv"}, "gaz_place_47.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 50632, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_47.txt"}, "noaa\\USC00402589.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 38632, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00402589.csv"}}, "downloads_this_run": 0, "cache_reuses_this_run": 39, "not_bulk_sourced_and_why": "What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 42, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 17, "citations_checked": 10, "citations_passed": 6, "citations_failed": 4, "primary": 0, "secondary": 6, "derived_downgraded": 1, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 4721400 -- Dover city, Tennessee", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 4721400 -- Dover city", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 47161 -- Stewart County, Tennessee", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid PAH -- Barkley Regional, Paducah KY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Tennessee, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Tennessee, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Tennessee, June 2026 YTD", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "utility Cumberland Elec Member Corp (#4624), Stewart County County rows, TN", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "climate_station", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "DOVER 1 W, TN US (USC00402589), 1.0 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US4721400, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 17300 -- Clarksville, TN-KY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "labour_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://cemc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/RATES-2026-FCA210202607.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/dover-tn-us/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.mchratransit.org/about", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Donelson_National_Battlefield", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 151,151 on the same line as 'visitors'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://flybarkley.com/flights/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 9 of the 10 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/tennessee/stewart-county", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (ReadTimeout: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='www.usnews.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=45) -- and gave up after 120s of trying)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.dovertn.com/area_attractions.html", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/tennessee/title-55/chapter-12/part-1/section-55-12-141/", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 1670883, "output_tokens": 46373, "web_searches": 87, "cost_usd": 4.1456, "seconds": 987.8, "measured_on": "2026-09-07", "note": "measured when the research actually ran on 2026-09-07; rebuilding the pack from the saved answers costs nothing"}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "dover-tn", "searches_charged": 0, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 200, "calls_made": 0, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 0, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 0, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.08, "draws": [0.08, 0.12, 0.07, 0.1, 0.08], "min": 0.07, "max": 0.12, "spread_x": 1.71}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.2, "draws": [0.15, 0.25, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "min": 0.15, "max": 0.25, "spread_x": 1.67}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.2, "draws": [2.2, 2.4, 2.0, 2.5, 2.0], "min": 2.0, "max": 2.5, "spread_x": 1.25}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [22, 48]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order: (1) Tennessee has no state taxicab/TNC authority publishing trip totals (Dept. of Safety issues for-hire endorsements only; Nashville TLC covers Metro Nashville, not Stewart). (2) City of Dover and Stewart County publish no TNC/for-hire permit reports or open-data trip files. (3) Clarksville Outlaw Field (CKV) lists Uber/Lyft availability but no ground-transport pickup counts; BNA is ~70 miles away. (4) Clarksville Urbanized Area MPO notes Uber/Lyft operate in the Clarksville MPA but gives no trip volumes; Dover is outside that urbanized area; GNRC (Nashville) likewise has none for Stewart. (5) No local news story quoting any of the above. Absence is therefore documented rather than assumed.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 32, "our_range_per_day": [8, 127]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": true, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 79 numbers behind a season in Dover, 23 are published figures, 33 are worked out from published figures, and 23 are our own estimates. 42 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [36.482137, -87.844365], "geoid": "4721400", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Dover city", "population": 1918, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Stewart County", "population": 14439, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 0, "dcfc_ports": 0, "dcfc_list": [], "l2_sites": 0, "l2_ports": 0, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "Parker Ford", "network": "FORD_CHARGE", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 27.1, "city": "Murray", "state": "KY"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 10, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 2, "claims": 12, "records_touched": 9, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 42}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public charger of any kind here", "claim_text": "Dover itself has zero public EV charging stations of any kind.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Parker Ford, 27.1 mi away (2 ports, J1772COMBO); 0 Level 2 sites (0 ports) -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "math", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "claim_text": "No public DCFC exists inside Dover city limits (NREL/AFDC-derived directories list 0 stations within 10 miles).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Parker Ford, 27.1 mi away (2 ports, J1772COMBO) -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "rides_reported", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CKV", "claim_text": "(3) Clarksville Outlaw Field (CKV) lists Uber/Lyft availability but no ground-transport pickup counts;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CKV (Outlaw Fld) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "geography_type", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "1,918 people", "claim_text": "Population 1918 and land area 3.867 sq mi from the settled federal files;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 1,918; the Census file says Dover city 1,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "district_count", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "1,900 people", "claim_text": "At 1.11 mi equivalent radius and ~1,900 residents there is one continuous built-up area.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 1,900; the Census file says Dover city 1,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "airport_flights_note", "field": "why", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code PAH", "claim_text": "Barkley Regional (PAH) is a two-flight-a-day spoke, not a hub;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists PAH: Barkley Regional, Paducah KY, 13,456 CY2024 enplanements", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Hospital beds and college enrollment in this pack are 0.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "NOTE: this was worked out from 'Hospital staffed beds', whose citation did not survive verification.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "13,456 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "PAH is 65.1 miles from the centre and boarded only 13,456 passengers, so arriving parties almost always rent a car instead of paying for a long taxi or ride-hail.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 13,456; FAA CY2024 enplanements for PAH = 13,456 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "1,918 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 1,918 people x 0.8139 adults = 1,561 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 1,918; the Census file says Dover city 1,918 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CKV", "claim_text": "(3) Clarksville Outlaw Field (CKV) lists Uber/Lyft availability but no ground-transport pickup counts;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CKV (Outlaw Fld) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public charger of any kind here", "claim_text": "No public chargers in town itself.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles; the nearest is Parker Ford, 27.1 mi away (2 ports, J1772COMBO); 0 Level 2 sites (0 ports) -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 4, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 4, "passes_the_same_test_now": 1, "still_fails_the_same_test": 3, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "hospital_beds", "url": "https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/tennessee/stewart-county", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (ReadTimeout: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='www.usnews.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=45) -- and gave up after 120s of trying)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the figure is not on the page"}, {"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/tennessee/title-55/chapter-12/part-1/section-55-12-141/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 2 of the 3 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "power_tou_note", "url": "https://cemc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/RATES-2026-FCA210202607.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "transit_note", "url": "https://www.mchratransit.org/about", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}