{"id": "columbia-mo", "label": "Columbia, MO", "city": "Columbia", "state": "MO", "county": "Boone County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 130851, "researched_on": "2026-09-12", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 29, "derived": 34, "estimated": 17}, "gaps": 1, "citations": {"checked": 13, "passed": 11, "failed": 2}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Columbia, 29 are published figures, 34 are worked out from published figures, and 17 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "columbia-mo", "city": "Columbia", "state": "MO", "label": "Columbia, MO", "county": "Boone County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-12", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 130851, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Columbia city, Missouri.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 2915670 -- Columbia city, Missouri"}, "range": [65425, 261702], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 67.837, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Columbia city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_29.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 2915670 -- Columbia city"}, "range": [33.9, 135.7], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 1929, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "130,851 residents divided by 67.837 square miles of land = 1,929 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [771, 4822], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 191746, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Boone County, Missouri. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 29019 -- Boone County, Missouri"}, "range": [95873, 383492], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Columbia Regional", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COU -- Columbia Regional, Columbia MO"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "COU", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COU -- Columbia Regional, Columbia MO"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 103081, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COU -- Columbia Regional, Columbia MO"}, "range": [51540, 206162], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 5.4, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 103,081 against CY2023 97,779, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (103,081 - 97,779) / 97,779 = 5.4%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 10.7, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (38.947290, -92.326387, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (38.817743, -92.217799, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 10.7 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [5.3, 26.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "St Louis Lambert International (STL) 106 mi away, 7,807,362 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COU -- Columbia Regional, Columbia MO"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1622, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Missouri in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Missouri, June 2026"}, "range": [0.081, 0.324], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1271, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Missouri, June 2026"}, "range": [0.064, 0.254], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1345, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Missouri, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.067, 0.269], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Union Electric Co - (MO)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Boone County, MO -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 7 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Union Electric Co - (MO) (#19436), Boone County County rows, MO"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "City of Columbia - (MO) (45,651 customers); Boone Electric Coop (33,806 customers); Callaway Electric Cooperative (12,647 customers); Consolidated Electric Coop (7,649 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Union Electric Co - (MO) (#19436), Boone County County rows, MO"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1256, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Union Electric Co - (MO), out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Union Electric Co - (MO): residential revenue of $1,633,293.9 thousand against 13,001,145 MWh sold. (1,633,293.9 x 1,000 dollars) / (13,001,145 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1256 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.063, 0.251], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.0973, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Union Electric Co - (MO): commercial revenue of $1,327,351.0 thousand against 13,645,800 MWh sold, so $0.0973 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.049, 0.195], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "COLUMBIA U OF M, MO US (USC00231801), 0.5 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00231801", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00231801.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "COLUMBIA U OF M, MO US (USC00231801), 0.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 56.2, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00231801: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 56.2F.", "source": null, "range": [41.2, 71.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 30.9, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00231801", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00231801.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "COLUMBIA U OF M, MO US (USC00231801), 0.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [15.9, 45.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 78.8, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00231801", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00231801.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "COLUMBIA U OF M, MO US (USC00231801), 0.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [63.8, 93.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 44.82, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00231801: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 44.82 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [22.4, 80.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 111.5, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00231801: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 111.5 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 17.4, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00231801, 0.5 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station COLUMBIA U OF M, MO US (USC00231801), 0.5 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 17.4 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 35], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 10.8, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00231801", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00231801.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "COLUMBIA U OF M, MO US (USC00231801), 0.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8126, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Columbia, MO, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: total population 128,548, of whom 24,091 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (128,548 - 24,091) / 128,548 = 0.8126.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 66498, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Columbia, MO. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US2915670, B19013_E001"}, "range": [33249, 132996], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.071, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Columbia, MO with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: 52,564 occupied households, of which 334 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 3,398 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (334 + 3,398) / 52,564 = 0.0710, or 7.1%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.737, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: 49,289 of 66,882 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.7370, or 73.70%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0122, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: 817 of 66,882 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0122, or 1.22%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.002, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: 133 of 66,882 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0020, or 0.20%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.1004, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: 6,715 of 66,882 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.1004, or 10.04%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 16.4, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Columbia, MO. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US2915670: 985,060 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 60,167 workers who did not work from home = 16.4 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 14.07, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Columbia, MO, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Columbia, MO', 320 people employed in it: median hourly wage $14.07. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 14.07 / 16.96 = 0.830.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 17860 -- Columbia, MO"}, "range": [8.44, 25.33], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 14.07, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Columbia, MO"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Columbia, MO are paid a median of $14.07 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 320 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 83% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.83, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Columbia, MO' is $14.07 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 14.07 / 16.96 = 0.830. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.776, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $1,097 a month in Columbia, MO (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 1097 / 1413 = 0.776.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 29, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.830 = $29.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [12, 73], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 60, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.830 = $60.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [24, 150], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 125, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.830 = $125.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [50, 314], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 990, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.776 = $990 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [396, 2970], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 309, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,154.92 in MO against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1154.92 / 1281.60 = 0.901. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.901 = $309 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [124, 927], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1154.92, "unit": "$/year", "note": "MO average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 263, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$309 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $263. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [105, 789], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.0851, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "All-in volumetric price (tariff energy + FAC + EEIC + RESRAM, no monthly customer charge or local tax) on Union Electric/Ameren Missouri Small General Service 2(M) Optional Overnight Saver off-peak, 10 p.m.–6 a.m. every day, which covers midnight–6 a.m.; a small AMI-metered operator can elect this schedule. This is Ameren’s tariff, not Columbia Water & Light’s.", "math": "2(M) Optional Overnight Saver energy: summer off-peak 8.90¢/kWh, winter off-peak 6.33¢/kWh (tariff seasons Jun–Sep / Oct–May). Season-weighted energy = (4×0.0890 + 8×0.0633)/12 = 0.07187. Add current riders on all secondary kWh: FAC $0.00894 (Jun 1–Sep 30, 2026) + EEIC 2(M) $0.002272 (Feb 1, 2026–Jan 31, 2027) + RESRAM $0.00207 (same window) = $0.01328. All-in = 0.07187 + 0.01328 = 0.0851. Summer all-in is $0.1023; winter $0.0766. Likely a slight understatement — local franchise/gross-receipts tax and Rider SUR are omitted. FAC will reset after Sep 30, 2026.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.16], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.1291, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Same 2(M) Optional Overnight Saver all-in as power_offpeak, but the on-peak energy charge. On this tariff 6 a.m.–10 p.m. is a single on-peak block, so 6 a.m.–4 p.m. is billed at the on-peak rate with no mid-peak.", "math": "On-peak energy: summer 14.89¢/kWh, winter 9.93¢/kWh. Season-weighted energy = (4×0.1489 + 8×0.0993)/12 = 0.11583. Plus the same $0.01328 riders = 0.1291. Summer all-in $0.1622; winter $0.1126. Same omissions as off-peak (local tax, SUR).", "source": null, "range": [0.07, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.1181, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Ameren 2(M) Optional Overnight Saver has no 4 p.m.–midnight period: 4 p.m.–10 p.m. is on-peak and 10 p.m.–midnight is already off-peak. This blends those two tariff hours so the 16:00–24:00 window is not silently billed at the full on-peak rate.", "math": "Six hours at power_mid $0.1291 (16:00–22:00) plus two hours at power_offpeak $0.0851 (22:00–24:00): (6×0.1291 + 2×0.0851)/8 = 0.1181. Weekends are still 6 a.m.–10 p.m. on-peak on this schedule, so this is not a weekend discount. Residential Smart Saver has a much higher 3–7 p.m. weekday peak (40.51¢ energy in summer) if someone elects that plan instead.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.45], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["power_offpeak", "power_mid"], "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.42, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Public (non-member) Tesla Supercharger price at Hy-Vee, 3100 West Broadway, Columbia, MO — 12 stalls, open to all EVs, 24/7. Third-party DCFC Tracker reprint of Tesla’s posted site price, not Tesla.com HTML (the official pin page does not expose the number in static text). Rivian Adventure Network at 2300 Bernadette Drive lists other-vehicle DCFC at $0.32–$0.46/kWh. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "DCFC Tracker (Tesla Supercharger, Columbia MO - West Broadway)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://dcfctracker.com/stations/205152", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "found 0.42 on the same line as 'tesla'"}, "range": [0.2, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "unconfirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Rivian Adventure Network fast charging here", "federal": "the note names Rivian Adventure Network, but the snapshot has no Rivian Adventure Network fast-charging site within 10 miles; the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 8 open public DC fast-charging sites (44 fast ports) within 10 miles", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 3}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes — Ameren Missouri Optional Overnight Saver on Small General Service 2(M) (and residential Overnight Savers); off-peak 10 p.m.–6 a.m. every day. AMI required.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Union Electric d/b/a Ameren Missouri publishes an optional small-general Overnight Saver and several residential TOU plans a customer can elect. A small operator with an AMI meter can take 2(M) Optional Overnight Saver; there is also a legacy Optional Time-of-Day rate. This is Ameren’s offer, not the city municipal utility’s.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Union Electric Company, P.S.C. Mo. Schedule No. 6, Sheet 55, Small General Service 2(M)", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://www.ameren.com/-/media/rates/files/missouri/uecdsheet55rate2msgs.ashx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi supply", "value": "Uber and Lyft operate citywide with thin supply (longer waits than large cities); licensed taxis still run; downtown TNC/taxi stands expanded to 66 spaces, 9 p.m.–2 a.m.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "September 2026 local news and the city’s own Uber/Lyft downtown-stand pilots confirm both apps operate here; Uber’s Columbia page says pickups run 24/7 but ‘may be longer than in bigger cities,’ which is the right thin-supply flag for a 131k college town. CATSO’s 2055 MTP (2024 inventory) separately says Uber and Lyft are well-established and six taxi companies still operate. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://abc17news.com/news/columbia/2026/09/08/columbia-city-council-expands-downtown-rideshare-pickup-times-spaces/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "Go COMO runs six fare-free city routes weekdays 6:25 a.m.–6:40 p.m. and Saturday 10 a.m.–6:40 p.m.; no Sunday and no evening service. MU Tiger Line campus shuttles run 6 a.m.–8 p.m. seven days in fall/spring semesters only.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The operator handbook is the current official schedule: city buses die at 6:40 p.m. and do not run Sunday, so night, late-evening, and Sunday trips cannot go by bus and are pushed onto cars, taxis, or ride-hail. Tiger Line covers campus only and still ends at 8 p.m., so it does not fill the 21:00–03:00 window. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Go COMO Transit (City of Columbia)", "date": "2026-02", "url": "https://www.gocomotransit.com/riderguide/go-como-rider-handbook/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 4.5, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes Columbia TNC trip lengths. The city’s own land area and 16.4-minute mean commute are the strongest local geometry; a national TNC mile-length is then stepped down because this town is compact and TNC here is not a commute mode (ACS taxi/ride-hail commute share is only 0.002).", "math": "Land area 67.837 sq mi implies equivalent radius sqrt(67.837/π) ≈ 4.65 mi; mean distance between two random points in a disk is about 0.90×r ≈ 4.2 mi. Mean commute 16.4 min at the Massachusetts 2024 TNC average speed of 21.53 mph is 16.4/60×21.53 ≈ 5.9 mi, an upper bound because ACS shows almost none of those commutes are paid rides. Statewide MA TNC trips averaged 6.14 mi in 2024, with compact places shorter (Cambridge 4.2, Boston 5.3, Nantucket 2.9). Columbia’s core (downtown to MU) is about a mile, 7.1% of households have no vehicle so many paid trips are short hops after the 6:40 p.m. bus cutoff, and the long tail is the ~11-mile airport run. Blend: ~90% intra-city near 3.8 mi and ~10% airport/out-of-town near 11 mi → 0.90×3.8 + 0.10×11 = 4.5. Stepped down ON the 16.4-min commute and 67.837 sq mi, from MA 6.14. Likely a touch high if campus-bar hops dominate; a touch low if Jefferson City (~30 mi) runs are common.", "source": null, "range": [2.0, 10.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.45, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "College-town paid demand concentrates on downtown–campus–apartment hops well under 3 miles; the 16.4-minute commute and 7.1% no-vehicle share say the typical intra-city errand is short, while the 4.5-mile mean is pulled up by a thin airport tail.", "math": "With trip_mi_avg = 4.5 and a right skew (airport ~11 mi), the median sits below the mean. Set 45% of trips under 3 miles at ~1.7 mi, 45% in the 3–10 band at ~5.2 mi, 10% over 10 mi at ~13 mi: 0.45×1.7 + 0.45×5.2 + 0.10×13 = 0.765 + 2.34 + 1.30 = 4.41, matching 4.5 within rounding. Direction: likely conservative on the short share during semester nights (more sub-3-mile bar/campus trips) and high in summer when airport and family visits weigh more.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.1, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Ten miles is roughly the city’s diameter, so intra-Columbia trips rarely clear it; the paid trips that do are mainly Columbia Regional Airport (~11 miles from downtown) plus a thinner Jefferson City / Rocheport / county tail.", "math": "COU is the only commercial airport in mid-Missouri; flycou.com shows 247,068 combined enplanements+deplanements through August 2026 YTD, on a run-rate near 0.35 million passengers/year, but the airport does not publish TNC pickups. If a quarter of those air travelers take a paid car each way that is on the order of 0.15–0.20 million airport TNC legs/year. Intra-city TNC in a 131k college town is the rest of the market; 10% long is consistent with the 4.5-mile mean used above (see short-share identity). Direction: a floor if STL/MCI airport runs (107–131 mi per Uber’s Columbia page) are counted as Columbia-origin trips; those are rare relative to local hops.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The 21:00–03:00 window is where this city’s missing evening bus, ~31,650 Mizzou students, downtown bars, and 24-hour hospitals actually bite; the city itself moved TNC stands to start at 9 p.m. because overnight rideshare congestion downtown got worse. ACS says only 0.002 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail, so TNC here is not a 7–9 a.m. product.", "math": "Clock share of 21:00–03:00 is 6/24 = 0.25 if demand were flat. It is not. Daytime TNC is muted (0.002 taxi/ride-hail commute share; 0.1004 work from home; buses still running until 6:40 p.m.). Night is amplified: Go COMO has no evening or Sunday service; 0.071 of households have no vehicle and cannot bus home after 6:40; MU enrollment is projected above 31,650 for fall 2026; the city expanded downtown stands from 34 to 66 spaces, 9 p.m.–2 a.m., after police flagged overnight rideshare congestion in August 2025; Lyft’s national nightlife file (Aug 2023–Aug 2024) finds college-town Columbus, OH second only to Austin for bar-bound night rides, and ‘if you are taking a Lyft ride after midnight on Friday or Saturday, there’s a better-than-20-percent chance you’re headed out to a bar.’ Blend a nightlife-heavy downtown stream (~0.35 night) with airport/medical/errand (~0.10 night) toward 0.20. Direction: conservative as an annual average — football weekends and semester Fridays run higher; summer break and Sundays pull it down. Last call in Missouri is well before 03:00, so the last hour of the window is thinner than 21:00–01:00.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["transit_note", "ridehail_present"]}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 1700000, "unit": "visitors/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The Columbia CVB’s own March 2025 convention-center feasibility study (CSL International, commissioned by the CVB) reports 1.7 million annual visitors from Placer.ai cell-phone traces for the 12 months June 2023–May 2024 — the most recent complete year that study published. This is a visitor-economy city (Mizzou, sports, nearby St. Louis/KC), not a zero. Placer counts unique non-resident presence, which is broader than hotel guests.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Columbia Convention & Visitors Bureau / CSL International feasibility study", "date": "2025-03", "url": "https://www.como.gov/archive/2025/03/feasibility-study-convention-center-03-07-2025.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [400000, 3500000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 3.0, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Missouri Division of Tourism’s 2024 statewide overnight-visitor profile puts average leisure party size at 3.0 (24% traveled alone). That is Missouri, not Columbia — say so — but Columbia’s visitor mix in the CVB study is the same leisure/university/sports pool (St. Louis, Kansas City, Chicago origins), not a solo-business market, so the statewide party size is the right published figure to start from. A party shares one car. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Missouri Division of Tourism — 2024 Profile of Overnight Visitors from Nationwide Markets", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://mdt-visitmo-cdn.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/05/2024-Profile-of-Overnight-Visitors-from-Nationwide-Markets.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [1.5, 4.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 2.2, "unit": "nights", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same CVB/CSL study that gives 1.7 million visitors also gives 3.8 million visit nights for June 2023–May 2024, so nights per visitor is local arithmetic rather than a statewide overnight-only survey. Statewide MDT overnight trips last 2.95 nights; Columbia’s lower figure is expected because Placer includes day visitors from St. Louis and Kansas City.", "math": "3.8 million visit nights / 1.7 million visitors = 2.235 nights per visitor, rounded to 2.2. This is person-nights over persons, which equals party-nights over parties if the party stays together. Direction: pulled down by day-trippers (the CVB study names St. Louis and Kansas City as top origin CBSAs); overnight hotel parties likely sit closer to MDT’s 2.95. Using 2.2 is conservative for a pipeline that treats all visitors as stay-over parties.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 4.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitors_year"]}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No public body publishes Columbia taxi or TNC trip totals. Missouri does not run a Nevada-style taxicab authority report; Columbia licenses taxis but does not release manifests; the airport publishes passengers, not TNC pickups; CATSO describes Uber/Lyft qualitatively; local news covers downtown stands without a trip number. Zero here means ‘nothing published,’ not ‘no rides.’", "math": "Checked, in order: (1) STATE — Missouri DOR licenses TNCs under RSMo 387.400–387.440; RSMo 387.440 lets only Kansas City and the St. Louis regional taxicab commission inspect a sample of TNC records, and those records are confidential. No statewide TNC/taxi trip PDF exists for Columbia or Boone County. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Columbia Finance licenses taxicabs at $25/vehicle and requires driver manifests (Chapter 28) but publishes no trip totals; the open-data portal is building permits, not for-hire trips; CATSO 2055 MTP says Uber and Lyft are well-established and six taxi companies operated as of 2024, with no counts. (3) AIRPORT — flycou.com publishes monthly enplanements/deplanements (247,068 combined YTD through August 2026) and lodging-tax receipts, not TNC or taxi pickups; Uber documents a FIFO queue at COU with no volume. (4) MPO — CATSO 2055 MTP and its 2024 household survey asked how often rideshare is a primary mode (327 responses) but did not publish a TNC trip total; commute tables mix taxi with motorcycle/other. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — ABC 17 (Sept 2026), KOMU (Oct 2025 downtown stands), and KBIA/Missourian (Mar 2026 Lyft St. Patrick’s promo) quote Uber and Lyft operations and stand hours, never a trip count. Absence is audited, not assumed.", "source": null, "range": [0, 3000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Columbia is one contiguous college town at the I-70/US-63 crossroads: downtown, MU campus, both hospital clusters, the mall and south retail all sit inside about five miles of the centre, so one car covers the city; the airport is the only outlying trip.", "math": "Settled land area is 67.837 sq mi — a single municipal blob, not a metro of separate cities. Wikipedia’s cityscape puts the dense commercial areas on adjacent corridors (I-70, US-63, Stadium Boulevard, Grindstone Parkway, and downtown), all inside the equivalent-circle radius of 4.65 mi. Distinct activity clusters exist (nightlife vs campus vs mall) but they are next-door, not districts a fleet must choose between. Airport at 10.7 mi south sits outside the built-up city.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["city_radius_mi"]}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 4.65, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge figure; the equivalent-circle radius of the settled Census land area is the honest built-up radius for a compact college town.", "math": "r = sqrt(land area / π) = sqrt(67.837 / 3.14159) = sqrt(21.593) = 4.65 miles. This is the radius of a circle with the same area. Columbia is elongated along I-70 (east–west) and US-63 (north–south), so some municipal edges are farther — roughly 6 miles — while Columbia Regional Airport at 10.7 miles south is outside the built-up city, not part of this radius. Likely a slight understatement of the farthest built-up edge, not of typical in-town trips.", "source": null, "range": [3.5, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 4, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Four activity clusters produce different trip patterns (nightlife, campus/hospitals/football, highway retail, south retail) even though they sit inside one radius.", "math": "Count of meaningfully different demand clusters a fleet would treat separately: (1) downtown The District — 50 square blocks bound by three colleges; (2) MU campus / Faurot Field / MU Health just south of downtown; (3) I-70–Stadium–Columbia Mall commercial; (4) south Grindstone–Nifong retail. ZIP 65202 north of I-70 is mostly residential and is not counted as a fifth generator district. These four sit inside ~5 miles of the centre, which is why geography_type is still single-radius town.", "source": null, "range": [2, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["geography_type"]}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Districts", "value": "downtown The District (nightlife, Columbia College, Stephens); MU campus / Faurot Field / MU Health; I-70–Stadium–Columbia Mall commercial; south Grindstone–Nifong retail", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the four demand clusters from the city’s own downtown CID, campus/hospital layout, and the published commercial corridors.", "math": "Downtown CID is 50 square blocks bound by MU, Stephens and Columbia College. MU campus, Faurot Field and University Hospital sit immediately south. Wikipedia lists the remaining dense commercial on I-70, US-63, Stadium Boulevard and Grindstone Parkway; Stadium/I-70 is the mall corridor, Grindstone is the south retail strip. Airport road is 10.7 miles south and is not a city district.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport flights", "value": "About 11 scheduled daily departures on American, United and Allegiant, mostly to Chicago O'Hare (7–11/day) and Dallas/Fort Worth (3–5/day), plus Charlotte and Denver; twice-weekly Florida leisure to Orlando-Sanford and Destin", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "COU is a spoke, not a hub: a small regional field with ~11 daily departures into a handful of large-airline hubs plus leisure Florida, which is a completely different demand pattern from a connecting airport. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.directflights.com/COU: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "MU (32,105 students; 9,732 jobs); University Hospital (390-bed Level I trauma) plus Boone Health and Truman VA; Veterans United Home Loans (2,906); Shelter Insurance; Columbia Public Schools (2,944); Faurot Field SEC football (sold-out 57,321)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The city’s demand is a college-town stack: a 32,000-student flagship campus, a 390-bed Level I hospital, a second community hospital and a VA, plus two large private employers and a stadium that sells out.", "math": "Headcounts from primary or near-primary pages compiled into one string: UM System/MDHEWD Fall 2025 enrollment 32,105; MU Health’s own University Hospital page 390 beds; REDI Q1 2024 Boone County employers — MU 9,732, MU Healthcare 5,833, Columbia Public Schools 2,944, Veterans United 2,906; Mizzou Athletics Homecoming crowd 57,321. City of Columbia lists the same employer set (MU, MU Health, Boone Health, Truman VA, Veterans United, Shelter). Roots N Blues is omitted — it was cancelled in 2023.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 3}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital beds", "value": 390, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Staffed-bed count at University Hospital, MU Health’s flagship and Columbia’s largest hospital (Level I trauma), from the hospital’s own location page. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "MU Health Care, University Hospital", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.muhealth.org/locations/university-hospital", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [250, 700], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 34201, "unit": "students", "basis": "derived", "why": "Sum of the three colleges physically in the city: MU headcount plus Columbia College’s Columbia campus plus Stephens, not Columbia College’s nationwide total.", "math": "MU Fall 2025 headcount 32,105 (Missouri DHEWD enrollment tables; UM System facts agree) + Columbia College Columbia campus Fall 2024: Day 887 + Evening 527 + Main Campus Graduate 111 = 1,525 (college IR; the same page says more than 1,500 in those three Columbia venues) + Stephens College Fall 2025 571 (same DHEWD tables) = 32,105 + 1,525 + 571 = 34,201. Columbia College’s statewide 5,167 is not used — most of those students are at other locations or online. MACC’s Columbia campus is omitted because only the 5,572 system-wide total is published, so this is likely a modest undercount of in-town students. CC piece is Fall 2024; MU and Stephens are Fall 2025.", "source": null, "range": [28000, 42000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Annual events", "value": "True/False Film Fest first weekend of March (~32,000 tickets); Mizzou Homecoming late September (sold-out 57,321); Art in the Park first weekend of June (20,000+ at Stephens Lake Park); SEC football Saturdays Aug–Nov fill hotels", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the sourced events that actually move rooms and downtown demand; Roots N Blues is dead and is not listed.", "math": "True/False: Kansas City Star, March 2025, festival director said nearly 32,000 tickets; 2026 edition was March 5–8 (Columbia Tribune). Mizzou Homecoming: MU Athletics, 27 Sep 2025, sold-out 57,321 at Memorial Stadium (114th Homecoming). Art in the Park: Columbia Art League, 67th year, June 6–7 2026, 20,000+ visitors over two days at Stephens Lake Park. SEC home football: same MU Athletics page, 17th consecutive sellout. Roots N Blues/Treeline was cancelled in 2023 and is omitted.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Missouri TNC liability minimums", "value": "$1,000,000 on a prearranged ride; $50,000/$100,000/$25,000 while logged on awaiting a ride", "unit": "USD limits", "basis": "sourced", "why": "RSMo 379.1702 is the state TNC insurance statute: $1 million primary liability while engaged in a prearranged ride, and 50/100/25 while the driver is logged on but has not accepted a ride. That is the Missouri floor for a TNC vehicle, not the ordinary personal-auto 25/50/25 minimum.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Missouri Revisor of Statutes, RSMo 379.1702", "date": "2016-08", "url": "https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=379.1702", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 5 of the 6 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [25000, 2000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "TNC vehicle registration and license fees", "value": "No per-vehicle TNC or commercial/for-hire registration fee; the TNC company pays a $5,000 annual Missouri DOR license covering all affiliated drivers.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "RSMo 387.404 sets a $5,000 annual TNC license that covers every affiliated driver and forbids a per-driver or per-vehicle fee. RSMo 387.402 separately says a TNC driver need not register the car as commercial or for-hire, and RSMo 387.430 bars Columbia from adding a local TNC vehicle license. Columbia's $25/year taxi/limo vehicle permit (city taxicab license page) applies to taxis, not TNC cars.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Missouri Revisor of Statutes, RSMo 387.404", "date": "2017-08", "url": "https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=387.404", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the page carries 7 of the 12 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 5000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 80, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Columbia's published garage-permit schedule prices a non-reserved monthly space at $80 in the typical downtown garages (Fifth and Walnut, Sixth and Cherry, Tenth and Cherry, Short Street). Surface lots are $75; Eighth and Walnut Plaza and Eighth and Cherry are $100. The $35 ParkLync downtown employee permit is a 10-hour meter hang-tag that must be moved every 24 hours, not a reserved space.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Columbia Parking Utility — Parking Permits", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.como.gov/public-works/parking/parking-permits/", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "found 80 on the same line as 'monthly'"}, "range": [35, 140], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-12", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.807, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0710 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.85x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00200 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.77x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.81x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.4, 1.61], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0929, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Columbia who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.81x: 0.1152 x 0.81 = 0.0929. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0372 to 0.2322, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0372, 0.2322], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.5, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.5, 2.4, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5. The MEDIAN, 2.5, is used; the draws spanned 2.4 to 2.6, a factor of 1.08. With only 0.071 of households carless and a 16.4-minute mean commute, local ride-hail is discretionary rather than a commute substitute, so active monthly users take a small handful of trips.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0606, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "103,081 boardings at COU in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 1,700,000 visitors a year = 0.061. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.091], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "103,081 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 103,081; FAA CY2024 enplanements for COU = 103,081 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.22, 0.18, 0.2, 0.22, 0.18. The MEDIAN, 0.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.18 to 0.22, a factor of 1.22. COU is a small regional airport (103,081 CY2024 enplanements) 10.7 miles from centre with no rail or real transit link, so rental cars and university-town pickups dominate and ride-hail/taxi is only the residual airport transfer.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.6, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.7, 0.45, 0.6, 1, 0.6. The MEDIAN, 0.6, is used; the draws spanned 0.45 to 1, a factor of 2.22. A 2.2-night stay in a moderately spread 67.8 sq mi college town with a walkable campus/downtown core means most parties take few or no in-stay ride-hail trips after the airport legs are excluded.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.624, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.061 arriving by air x 0.200 of those hiring a ride = 0.024, plus 0.600 trips in town = 0.624 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.46 to 1.04. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 1781, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 130851 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8126 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0929 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.5 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 1700000 (a published figure); Average visiting party size = 3.0 (a published figure); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.624 (our estimate). Residents: 130,851 people x 0.8126 adults = 106,330 adults; x 0.0929 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 9,878 people; x 2.5 trips each a month = 24,695 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 812 resident rides a day. Visitors: 1,700,000 a year / 3.0 people in a party = 566,667 visiting parties; x 0.624 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 969 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 54% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 1,781 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 1,028 rides a day, and at its own high bound 3,726. The 1,781 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked, in order: (1) STATE — Missouri DOR licenses TNCs under RSMo 387.400–387.440; RSMo 387.440 lets only Kansas City and the St. Louis regional taxicab commission inspect a sample of TNC records, and those records are confidential. No statewide TNC/taxi trip PDF exists for Columbia or Boone County. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Columbia Finance licenses taxicabs at $25/vehicle and requires driver manifests (Chapter 28) but publishes no trip totals; the open-data portal is building permits, not for-hire trips; CATSO 2055 MTP says Uber and Lyft are well-established and six taxi companies operated as of 2024, with no counts. (3) AIRPORT — flycou.com publishes monthly enplanements/deplanements (247,068 combined YTD through August 2026) and lodging-tax receipts, not TNC or taxi pickups; Uber documents a FIFO queue at COU with no volume. (4) MPO — CATSO 2055 MTP and its 2024 household survey asked how often rideshare is a primary mode (327 responses) but did not publish a TNC trip total; commute tables mix taxi with motorcycle/other. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — ABC 17 (Sept 2026), KOMU (Oct 2025 downtown stands), and KBIA/Missourian (Mar 2026 Lyft St. Patrick’s promo) quote Uber and Lyft operations and stand hours, never a trip count. Absence is audited, not assumed. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [445, 7124], "editable": true, "low": 1028, "high": 3726, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked, in order: (1) STATE — Missouri DOR licenses TNCs under RSMo 387.400–387.440; RSMo 387.440 lets only Kansas City and the St. Louis regional taxicab commission inspect a sample of TNC records, and those records are confidential. No statewide TNC/taxi trip PDF exists for Columbia or Boone County. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Columbia Finance licenses taxicabs at $25/vehicle and requires driver manifests (Chapter 28) but publishes no trip totals; the open-data portal is building permits, not for-hire trips; CATSO 2055 MTP says Uber and Lyft are well-established and six taxi companies operated as of 2024, with no counts. (3) AIRPORT — flycou.com publishes monthly enplanements/deplanements (247,068 combined YTD through August 2026) and lodging-tax receipts, not TNC or taxi pickups; Uber documents a FIFO queue at COU with no volume. (4) MPO — CATSO 2055 MTP and its 2024 household survey asked how often rideshare is a primary mode (327 responses) but did not publish a TNC trip total; commute tables mix taxi with motorcycle/other. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — ABC 17 (Sept 2026), KOMU (Oct 2025 downtown stands), and KBIA/Missourian (Mar 2026 Lyft St. Patrick’s promo) quote Uber and Lyft operations and stand hours, never a trip count. Absence is audited, not assumed.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 1781, "our_range_per_day": [445, 7124]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "130,851 people", "federal": "the note says 130,851; the Census file says Columbia city 130,851 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "CRITICAL TERRITORY SPLIT: Columbia city proper is served by Columbia Water & Light (municipal), not Ameren. EIA-861 was matched on Boone County, which is why Union Electric/Ameren is the settled utility. CWL small general service (≤25 kW summer demand) has NO time-of-use — overnight kWh are billed at the same energy charge as daytime (9.41–14.00¢/kWh plus PCA $0.013605/kWh in 2026 months on como.gov/utilities/utility-rates). CWL midnight–6 a.m. discounts exist only for industrial off-peak (3.99¢ summer / 3.45¢ non-summer + PCA, 75% load-factor gate) and large-general/industrial energy-storage riders. If the site is inside city limits, the Ameren Overnight Saver window in this pack does not apply and a small operator cannot take an overnight TOU. Ameren Optional Overnight Saver applies in Ameren territory around the city. All-in Ameren figures use FAC secondary $0.00894/kWh (posted for service Jun 1–Sep 30, 2026; will change), EEIC 2(M) $0.002272 and RESRAM $0.00207 (both through Jan 31, 2027) on https://www.ameren.com/-/media/rates/missouri/non-residential/electric-rates/riders/uecsheet71riderfac.ashx , https://www.ameren.com/-/media/rates/missouri/residential/electric-rates/riders/uecesheetno91ridereeiceeinvestmentcharge.ashx , and https://www.ameren.com/-/media/rates/missouri/residential/electric-rates/riders/uecesheet93blanksheets.ashx . Local franchise/gross-receipts taxes and Rider SUR are omitted (likely conservative). Residential Overnight Savers energy is lower overnight (7.32¢ summer / 6.31¢ winter on Sheet 54) but is not a commercial schedule. Tesla DCFC $0.42 is the public non-member rate as of Sep 11, 2026; member $0.32. Rivian other-vehicle band $0.32–$0.46/kWh at 2300 Bernadette Drive (https://rivianroamer.com/charging/sites/US-RIV-L9690482648894021784).", "demand": "Columbia, MO pack. Settled Census inputs used as ground, not re-researched: pop 130851, land 67.837 sq mi, county 191746, adult share 0.8126, no-vehicle households 0.071, mean commute 16.4 min, taxi/ride-hail commute 0.002, transit commute 0.0122, WFH 0.1004, median HH income $66498. Visitors_year is the June 2023–May 2024 Placer.ai year in the CVB/CSL March 2025 study (1.7 million) — do not swap in a different year. Party size is Missouri statewide overnight leisure (MDT 2024), flagged as such. Rides_reported is a true zero after checking the five mandated source classes; Go COMO’s 348k FY2024 fixed-route rides and 524k ‘passenger-trips’ are public-bus counts, not paid TNC/taxi, and must not be loaded as rides_reported. Night share leans on the missing evening bus, 7.1% carless households, and MU’s 31,650-student body; it will move with the academic calendar.", "geography": "Airport name/code/distance/passengers are settled from FAA files and are not in this pack. COU is a spoke (~11 daily departures into ORD/DFW/CLT/DEN plus twice-weekly Florida), 10.7 miles south of centre — outside the 4.65-mile equivalent-circle city radius. University Hospital 390 beds is the largest single hospital (MU Health’s own page); Wikipedia’s older 1,105-bed citywide total is a system sum, not this record. College enrollment 34,201 is in-city campuses only (MU + Columbia College’s Columbia venues + Stephens); Stephens’ marketing line of “more than 36,000 college students” likely folds in Columbia College nationwide and is not used. Columbia College IR figures are Fall 2024; MU and Stephens are Fall 2025. MACC’s Columbia campus is unpublished separately (system 5,572) so 34,201 is a modest undercount of bodies in town. Roots N Blues was cancelled in 2023 — do not treat it as a current demand event. Directflights’ 11 daily departures may include codeshares; unique aircraft departures could be a bit lower. Supporting URLs a verifier will want: https://www.muhealth.org/locations/university-hospital ; https://dhewd.mo.gov/sites/g/files/zuston351/files/media/pdf/2025/11/11252025Tab10AttachmentA--2020-2025EnrollmentTables.pdf ; https://www.umsystem.edu/impact/impact-data/university-missouri-columbia ; https://www.ccis.edu/directory/institutional-research/quick-facts ; https://www.flycou.com/at-the-airport/ ; https://www.visitcolumbiamo.com/directory/columbia-regional-airport/ ; https://www.como.gov/featured/columbia-regional-airport-united-airlines-returns/ ; https://www.directflights.com/COU ; https://www.discoverthedistrict.com/ ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downtown_Columbia,_Missouri ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia,_Missouri ; https://www.como.gov/about/ ; https://columbiaredi.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Largest-Employers-Q1-2024.pdf ; https://www.kansascity.com/entertainment/kansas-city/article302310719.html ; https://www.columbiatribune.com/st", "costs": "Insurance is the two-tier TNC statute (RSMo 379.1702, effective 28 Aug 2016); period 1 is 50/100/25, period 2 (prearranged ride) is $1 million CSL. Registration: cite RSMo 387.404 for the $5,000 company license and explicit ban on per-vehicle TNC fees; RSMo 387.402 (not the cited URL) is the companion rule that TNC cars stay on ordinary passenger plates. Columbia taxis still pay $25 per vehicle per year on the city taxicab-license page, but RSMo 387.430 preempts any local TNC vehicle license. Parking $80 is the common non-reserved downtown garage rate on the city permit page last modified 2026-08-21; lots $75, Plaza $100, reserved garage spaces $120–$140 in the city code. ParkLync 10-hour meters are still listed at $35 on como.gov; KOMU reported a 2026-09-08 council vote raising that meter permit from $35 to $40, which is a different product from the garage space used here."}, "gaps": ["rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 29, "derived": 34, "estimated": 17}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 29, "primary": 23, "secondary": 6, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 51, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. What guards them instead is a plausibility band applied when the record is built, and anything outside it is flagged into `gaps` rather than accepted.", "files": {"sub-est2025.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 7464556, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 2, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv"}, "gaz_place_12.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 101646, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_12.txt"}, "co-est2025-alldata.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 2071735, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 2, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv"}, "faa-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 58201, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": 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That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. 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"https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=379.1702", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 5 of the 6 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=387.404", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 7 of the 12 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.como.gov/public-works/parking/parking-permits/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "found 80 on the same line as 'monthly'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1739.3}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "columbia-mo", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.2, "draws": [0.22, 0.18, 0.2, 0.22, 0.18], "min": 0.18, "max": 0.22, "spread_x": 1.22}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.6, "draws": [0.7, 0.45, 0.6, 1.0, 0.6], "min": 0.45, "max": 1.0, "spread_x": 2.22}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.5, "draws": [2.5, 2.4, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5], "min": 2.4, "max": 2.6, "spread_x": 1.08}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [1028, 3726]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked, in order: (1) STATE — Missouri DOR licenses TNCs under RSMo 387.400–387.440; RSMo 387.440 lets only Kansas City and the St. Louis regional taxicab commission inspect a sample of TNC records, and those records are confidential. No statewide TNC/taxi trip PDF exists for Columbia or Boone County. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Columbia Finance licenses taxicabs at $25/vehicle and requires driver manifests (Chapter 28) but publishes no trip totals; the open-data portal is building permits, not for-hire trips; CATSO 2055 MTP says Uber and Lyft are well-established and six taxi companies operated as of 2024, with no counts. (3) AIRPORT — flycou.com publishes monthly enplanements/deplanements (247,068 combined YTD through August 2026) and lodging-tax receipts, not TNC or taxi pickups; Uber documents a FIFO queue at COU with no volume. (4) MPO — CATSO 2055 MTP and its 2024 household survey asked how often rideshare is a primary mode (327 responses) but did not publish a TNC trip total; commute tables mix taxi with motorcycle/other. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — ABC 17 (Sept 2026), KOMU (Oct 2025 downtown stands), and KBIA/Missourian (Mar 2026 Lyft St. Patrick’s promo) quote Uber and Lyft operations and stand hours, never a trip count. Absence is audited, not assumed.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 1781, "our_range_per_day": [445, 7124]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Columbia, 29 are published figures, 34 are worked out from published figures, and 17 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [38.94729, -92.326387], "geoid": "2915670", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Columbia city", "population": 130851, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Boone County", "population": 191746, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 8, "dcfc_ports": 44, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "MB COLUMBIA MB COMO CPE250", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2022-02-19"}, {"name": "SuperSonic Site 1", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 4, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2022-09-30"}, {"name": "Columbia, MO - Clark Lane - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 2.5, "open_date": "2024-01-05"}, {"name": "Columbia, MO", "network": "RIVIAN_ADVENTURE", "ports": 6, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 3.0, "open_date": "2024-05-02"}, {"name": "Columbia, MO - West Broadway - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 12, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 3.1, "open_date": "2021-12-23"}, {"name": "Columbia, MO - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 4.0, "open_date": "2015-09-09"}, {"name": "AODCHARGER1 AODCHARGER1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 5.5, "open_date": "2025-10-10"}, {"name": "Little General - Tesla Supercharger (Little General)", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 6.7, "open_date": "2026-07-10"}], "l2_sites": 8, "l2_ports": 18, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "MB COLUMBIA MB COMO CPE250", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 2.4, "city": "Columbia", "state": "MO"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 6, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 1, "skipped_no_file": 5, "claims": 12, "records_touched": 8, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "12 fast-charging stalls (Tesla Supercharger)", "claim_text": "Public (non-member) Tesla Supercharger price at Hy-Vee, 3100 West Broadway, Columbia, MO — 12 stalls, open to all EVs, 24/7.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note counts 12 stalls; the snapshot lists Columbia, MO - West Broadway - Tesla Supercharger with 12 fast ports 3.1 mi from the town center (TESLA)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Third-party DCFC Tracker reprint of Tesla’s posted site price, not Tesla.com HTML (the official pin page does not expose the number in static text).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Columbia, MO - Clark Lane - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 2.5 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Rivian Adventure Network fast charging here", "claim_text": "Rivian Adventure Network at 2300 Bernadette Drive lists other-vehicle DCFC at $0.32–$0.46/kWh.", "verdict": "unconfirmed", "federal": "the note names Rivian Adventure Network, but the snapshot has no Rivian Adventure Network fast-charging site within 10 miles; the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 8 open public DC fast-charging sites (44 fast ports) within 10 miles", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "University Hospital (390-bed Level I trauma) plus Boone Health and Truman VA;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "The city’s demand is a college-town stack: a 32,000-student flagship campus, a 390-bed Level I hospital, a second community hospital and a VA, plus two large private employers and a stadium that sells out.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "MU Health’s own University Hospital page 390 beds;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Staffed-bed count at University Hospital, MU Health’s flagship and Columbia’s largest hospital (Level I trauma), from the hospital’s own location page.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "103,081 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "103,081 boardings at COU in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 1,700,000 visitors a year = 0.061.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 103,081; FAA CY2024 enplanements for COU = 103,081 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "130,851 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 130,851 people x 0.8126 adults = 106,330 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 130,851; the Census file says Columbia city 130,851 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Tesla DCFC $0.42 is the public non-member rate as of Sep 11, 2026;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Columbia, MO - Clark Lane - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 2.5 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "130,851 people", "claim_text": "Settled Census inputs used as ground, not re-researched: pop 130851, land 67.837 sq mi, county 191746, adult share 0.8126, no-vehicle households 0.071, mean commute 16.4 min, taxi/ride-hail commute 0.002, transit commute 0.0122, WFH 0.1004, median HH income $66498.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 130,851; the Census file says Columbia city 130,851 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "University Hospital 390 beds is the largest single hospital (MU Health’s own page);", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 2, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 2, "passes_the_same_test_now": 1, "still_fails_the_same_test": 1, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "airport_flights_note", "url": "https://www.directflights.com/COU", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "ridehail_present", "url": "https://abc17news.com/news/columbia/2026/09/08/columbia-city-council-expands-downtown-rideshare-pickup-times-spaces/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 5 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}