{"id": "cody-wy", "label": "Cody, WY", "city": "Cody", "state": "WY", "county": "Park County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 10377, "researched_on": "2026-09-11", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 30, "derived": 29, "estimated": 21}, "gaps": 2, "citations": {"checked": 16, "passed": 12, "failed": 4}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Cody, 30 are published figures, 29 are worked out from published figures, and 21 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "cody-wy", "city": "Cody", "state": "WY", "label": "Cody, WY", "county": "Park County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-11", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 10377, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Cody city, Wyoming.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 5615760 -- Cody city, Wyoming"}, "range": [5188, 20754], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 10.244, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Cody city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_56.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-08", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 5615760 -- Cody city"}, "range": [5.1, 20.5], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 1013, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "10,377 residents divided by 10.244 square miles of land = 1,013 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [405, 2532], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 31171, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Park County, Wyoming. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 56029 -- Park County, Wyoming"}, "range": [15585, 62342], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Yellowstone Regional", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COD -- Yellowstone Regional, Cody WY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "COD", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COD -- Yellowstone Regional, Cody WY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 37437, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COD -- Yellowstone Regional, Cody WY"}, "range": [18718, 74874], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 7.9, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 37,437 against CY2023 34,711, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (37,437 - 34,711) / 34,711 = 7.9%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 1.7, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (44.521242, -109.057469, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (44.520201, -109.023824, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 1.7 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [0.8, 4.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "Jackson Hole (JAC) 105 mi away, 518,754 boardings a year; Billings Logan International (BIL) 92 mi away, 475,334 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid COD -- Yellowstone Regional, Cody WY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1524, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Wyoming in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Wyoming, June 2026"}, "range": [0.076, 0.305], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1001, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Wyoming, June 2026"}, "range": [0.05, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1388, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Wyoming, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.069, 0.278], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "PacifiCorp", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Park County, WY -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 10 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility PacifiCorp (#14354), Park County County rows, WY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "High Plains Power Inc (12,767 customers); City of Cody (7,801 customers); Big Horn Rural Electric Co (4,078 customers); City of Powell - (WY) (3,432 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility PacifiCorp (#14354), Park County County rows, WY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1344, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for PacifiCorp, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for PacifiCorp: residential revenue of $140,847.5 thousand against 1,047,681 MWh sold. (140,847.5 x 1,000 dollars) / (1,047,681 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1344 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.067, 0.269], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1053, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for PacifiCorp: commercial revenue of $149,710.3 thousand against 1,422,012 MWh sold, so $0.1053 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.053, 0.211], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "CODY, WY US (USC00481840), 3.0 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 1 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00481840", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00481840.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CODY, WY US (USC00481840), 3.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 46.8, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00481840: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 46.8F.", "source": null, "range": [31.8, 61.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 27.3, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "December is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00481840", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00481840.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CODY, WY US (USC00481840), 3.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [12.3, 42.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 70.6, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00481840", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00481840.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CODY, WY US (USC00481840), 3.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [55.6, 85.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 11.51, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00481840: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 11.51 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [5.8, 20.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 72.3, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00481840: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 72.3 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 45.0, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00481840, 3.0 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station CODY, WY US (USC00481840), 3.0 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 45.0 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 90], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 18.5, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00481840", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00481840.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CODY, WY US (USC00481840), 3.0 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.7761, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Cody, WY, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: total population 10,276, of whom 2,301 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (10,276 - 2,301) / 10,276 = 0.7761.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 72570, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Cody, WY. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US5615760, B19013_E001"}, "range": [36285, 145140], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.026, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Cody, WY with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: 4,774 occupied households, of which 44 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 80 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (44 + 80) / 4,774 = 0.0260, or 2.6%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.8207, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: 4,197 of 5,114 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.8207, or 82.07%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: 0 of 5,114 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: 0 of 5,114 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0813, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: 416 of 5,114 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0813, or 8.13%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 9.5, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Cody, WY. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US5615760: 44,590 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 4,698 workers who did not work from home = 9.5 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 14.28, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Western Wyoming nonmetropolitan area, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Western Wyoming nonmetropolitan area', 230 people employed in it: median hourly wage $14.28. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 14.28 / 16.96 = 0.842.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 5600006 -- Western Wyoming nonmetropolitan area"}, "range": [8.57, 25.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 14.28, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Western Wyoming nonmetropolitan area"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Western Wyoming nonmetropolitan area are paid a median of $14.28 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 230 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 84% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.842, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Western Wyoming nonmetropolitan area' is $14.28 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 14.28 / 16.96 = 0.842. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.744, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $1,051 a month in Cody, WY (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 1051 / 1413 = 0.744.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 29, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.842 = $29.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [12, 74], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 61, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.842 = $61.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [24, 153], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 127, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.842 = $127.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [51, 318], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 948, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.744 = $948 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [379, 2845], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 254, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $948.24 in WY against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 948.24 / 1281.60 = 0.740. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.740 = $254 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [102, 762], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 948.24, "unit": "$/year", "note": "WY average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 216, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$254 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $216. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [86, 648], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.0921, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Rocky Mountain Power (PacifiCorp) Schedule 19 all-in Combined Price for off-peak kWh, including base energy (delivery + transmission + generation) plus riders 93, 95, 191 and 198; midnight–06:00 is entirely off-peak. Excludes the ~$24 basic charge, $2/month TOU meter fee, and local taxes. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rocky Mountain Power, P.S.C. Wyoming No. 19 Price Summary Sheet PS-1", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://www.rockymountainpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/rockymountainpower/rates-regulation/wyoming/Wyoming_Price_Summary.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.05, 0.18], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.0921, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Schedule 19 has no mid-peak period: off-peak is all hours except 7–9 a.m. and 5–11 p.m. So 06:00–16:00 is billed at the same all-in off-peak Combined Price (9.210¢/kWh) except the two-hour 7–9 a.m. on-peak spike. Same inclusions as overnight: base energy plus riders 93, 95, 191, 198; no basic charge or meter fee. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rocky Mountain Power, P.S.C. Wyoming No. 19 Price Summary Sheet PS-1", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://www.rockymountainpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/rockymountainpower/rates-regulation/wyoming/Wyoming_Price_Summary.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.05, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening peak electricity", "value": 0.15432, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Schedule 19 all-in Combined Price for on-peak kWh (base energy plus riders 93, 95, 191, 198). Actual on-peak is 7–9 a.m. and 5–11 p.m., not a continuous 16:00–24:00 block: 16:00–17:00 and 23:00–24:00 are off-peak, so this figure is slightly high for a strict 16:00–midnight average. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rocky Mountain Power, P.S.C. Wyoming No. 19 Price Summary Sheet PS-1", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://www.rockymountainpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/rockymountainpower/rates-regulation/wyoming/Wyoming_Price_Summary.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.08, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.55, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Cody’s only public DCFC is an EV Connect 50 kW CCS stall at Denny Menholt Chevrolet Buick GMC, 1172 16th St; ChargeHub lists the live stall price at $0.55/kWh (host-set EV Connect rate, any hour). No Tesla Supercharger in town. Third-party listing of network/host pricing, not a utility tariff. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "ChargeHub (Denny Menholt Chevrolet GMC, EV Connect)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://chargehub.com/en/ev-charging-stations/united-states/wyoming/cody/denny-menholt-chevrolet-gmc/electric-car-stations-near-me?locId=147479", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.25, 0.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "EV Connect fast charging here", "federal": "the snapshot lists DENNY MENHOLT CHEVROLET BUICK GMC (EV Connect, 1 fast ports, 0.3 mi)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: Rocky Mountain Power Schedule 19, Residential Service Time-of-Use Pilot (optional, 500-customer cap, first-come).", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "PacifiCorp’s Wyoming arm offers a real two-period TOU energy tariff in all Wyoming territory, including Cody. Schedule 19 is the simple residential off-peak/on-peak kWh split used above; a commercial operator would instead face Schedule 29 (Non-Residential TOU Pilot, 100-customer cap) which is a two-block energy charge plus an off-peak credit, not a single off-peak kWh price. Both are optional, 12-month stay, $2/month meter fee, and can fill up. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Rocky Mountain Power, Schedule 19 Residential Service Time-of-Use Pilot (P.S.C. Wyoming No. 19)", "date": "2025-11", "url": "https://www.rockymountainpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/rockymountainpower/rates-regulation/wyoming/rates/019_Residential_Service_Time-of-Use_Pilot.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 11 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi supply", "value": "UberX is marketed 24/7 but pickups are slow and often need a reservation; Lyft is licensed statewide but does not list Cody's airport as a permitted pickup; local supply is a handful of phone-dispatch cabs (Cody Cab, Town Taxi) plus one airport black-car — thin, not street-hail.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Operator pages and local reporting, not a third-party aggregator: Uber's own Cody city page, Lyft's Wyoming airport list (COD is absent), and named local cab companies in the Cody press. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/cody-wy-us/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public transit evenings and weekends", "value": "No fixed-route city bus. The only public rides are Cody Senior Center demand-response, 8:00am–4:00pm weekdays with 24-hour notice — no evenings, no weekends. ACS already shows 0% of workers commute by transit.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The Senior Center is the operator of the only public ride service in town and publishes its hours; a 2016 county study found no support for a fixed-route bus, and nothing has launched since. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Cody Senior Center (Cody Council on Aging)", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://codysrctr.org/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 2.8, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes TNC trip length for Cody. The town's 10.244 sq mi land area, 2-mile airport, and 9.5-minute mean commute are the local facts; national taxi/TNC averages of ~5–6 miles would overstate a town this compact.", "math": "Circle-equivalent radius of 10.244 sq mi is sqrt(10.244/pi)=1.81 miles. Mean crow-flies between random points in a disk is ~1.63 miles; 1.3 road circuity gives ~2.1 miles in-town. AirNav places COD 2 miles SE of town, so airport-hotel runs are ~2 miles, not 10. Mean one-way commute is 9.5 minutes (established ACS) versus ~26 minutes nationally — stepping the national NHTS taxicab mean (~5.7 miles) down on that ratio gives 9.5/26*5.7≈2.1 miles. Mix ~80% in-town/airport at ~2.2 miles with a thin 8% tail toward Powell (24 miles) or the valley: 0.80*2.2 + 0.12*4 + 0.08*18 = 1.76+0.48+1.44 = 3.68, then pull the long tail down because Yellowstone itself is a rental-car trip, not a taxi trip. 2.8 miles is the in-town-weighted figure. Likely conservative on length — if more airport and Powell runs sneak in, the mean rises toward 3.5.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.7, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Hotels, downtown, the Buffalo Bill Center, the rodeo grounds, and the airport all sit inside a ~4-mile east-west town; most paid rides are hotel-dinner, hotel-rodeo, bar-hotel, or airport-hotel.", "math": "Stepped down from the national NextGen NHTS fact that 73.1% of all on-road trips are 10 miles or less (Energy.gov FOTW 1363, 2022 data) onto this city's geography: COD is 2 miles from town, in-town diameter is ~3.6 miles, and the 9.5-minute mean commute implies short local trips. Assign ~70% of paid rides to the downtown-hotel-rodeo-airport cluster (all under 3 miles), ~22% to 3–10 mile cross-town/edge, ~8% over 10 miles. 0.70 is the under-3 share. Direction: could be as high as 0.80 if almost nobody taxis to Powell.", "source": null, "range": [0.4, 0.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.08, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Powell is 24 miles and Yellowstone's East Entrance about 52 miles, but those are rental-car and tour-bus trips; the airport is only 2 miles, so the over-10-mile tail of paid rides is thin.", "math": "National all-trip share over 10 miles is 1-0.731=0.269 (Energy.gov / NextGen NHTS 2022). Stepped down hard onto Cody because (a) mean commute is only 9.5 minutes, (b) 0% of workers already commute by taxi/ride-hail (established ACS), and (c) visitors going to Yellowstone rent cars or buy a tour, they do not take a 50-mile Uber. Leave an 8% tail for occasional Powell (24 mi), South Fork lodges, and medical runs. Likely conservative — if the pack treats airport-to-East-Gate as a paid ride, this share jumps.", "source": null, "range": [0.02, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.16, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No evening bus, a nightly summer rodeo that lets out around 22:00, bars, and a 24-hour hospital push night demand up in summer; there is no college in Cody, and winter nights are quiet, so the annual share is not a party-town 0.25.", "math": "21:00–03:00 is 6/24=0.25 of the clock if demand were flat. It is not. Summer (Jun–Aug, ~25% of nights): Cody Nite Rodeo starts 8pm, ~2 hours, gates 7pm — let-out ~22:00 plus bars; no evening transit (Senior Center stops at 16:00); Tipsy Taxi exists because people drink and need a ride home. Summer night share ~0.28. Shoulder ~0.14. Winter ~0.10 (hospital night-shift at Cody Regional Health, bars, no college — Northwest College is in Powell, 24 miles). Weighted: 0.25*0.28 + 0.35*0.14 + 0.40*0.10 = 0.070+0.049+0.040 = 0.159. Round to 0.16. Only 2.6% of households have no vehicle (established ACS), so resident night demand is small; visitors and the rodeo dominate the summer spike. Likely conservative in July, high in January.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["transit_note"]}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 339000, "unit": "person-trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Calendar year 2025, Wyoming Office of Tourism / Dean Runyan: 339,000 hotel, motel, and STVR overnight person-trips in Park County. Cody holds essentially all of that lodging (the DMO director has said Cody has about 2,800 hotel rooms), so this is the city lodging-visitor count. The county's total overnight person-trips were 1,037,000 including campgrounds and VFR not all in town; Wyoming Public Media's 300,000–400,000 'typical summer' Cody figure is the same order of magnitude, not a different year. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://assets.simpleviewinc.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/wyoming/2025_Wyoming_Travel_Impacts_Final_b9de41a1-a6ec-4ac0-a2e4-b30afa679cad.pdf: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the figure is not on the page). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [150000, 1200000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.7, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Calendar year 2025 Park County all-overnight party size from the same Dean Runyan / Wyoming Office of Tourism report. Hotel/motel/STVR parties are a bit larger (~3.1); 2.7 is the authority's all-overnight average, which is the right figure for converting visitors into parties that share a car. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wyoming Office of Tourism / Dean Runyan Associates, 2025 Wyoming Travel Impacts (Park County average party size)", "date": "2026-03", "url": "https://assets.simpleviewinc.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/wyoming/2025_Wyoming_Travel_Impacts_Final_b9de41a1-a6ec-4ac0-a2e4-b30afa679cad.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "found 2.7 on the same line as 'all overnight'"}, "range": [1.5, 4.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 2.7, "unit": "nights", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Calendar year 2025 Park County all-overnight length of stay from Dean Runyan / Wyoming Office of Tourism. Same 2.7 nights as statewide overnight length of stay in that report. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wyoming Office of Tourism / Dean Runyan Associates, 2025 Wyoming Travel Impacts (Park County length of stay)", "date": "2026-03", "url": "https://assets.simpleviewinc.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/wyoming/2025_Wyoming_Travel_Impacts_Final_b9de41a1-a6ec-4ac0-a2e4-b30afa679cad.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "found 2.7 on the same line as 'overnight'"}, "range": [1, 5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No public body publishes Cody or Park County taxi/TNC trip totals. Zero here means none found after checking the five required sources, not that zero rides occur.", "math": "Checked in order: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Wyoming has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. TNCs are governed exclusively by W.S. 31-20 (local governments may not license or tax TNC trips). The Wyoming Public Service Commission annual reports cover electric, gas, water, pipelines, and telecom, not taxis or TNCs (psc.wyo.gov utility annual reports). WYDOT publishes AADT, not for-hire trips. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire permit reports — searched codywy.gov; no trip census. Closest local number is the City Tipsy Taxi voucher program: Town Taxi alone averaged 30–35 vouchers/month (about 50 in summer) as of 2022, which is a drunk-ride subsidy for one company, not all paid rides. (3) Airport ground transportation — Yellowstone Regional Airport publishes enplanements (37,033 in 2024) but no TNC/taxi pickup counts; Lyft's Wyoming airport list omits COD entirely; Uber's COD pickup page has no volumes. (4) MPO travel survey — no MPO; the 2016 Park County Transit Feasibility Study is about whether to start a bus, not a paid-ride count. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — Cowboy State Daily (Cody Cab driver Earl Farlow, Jun 2025) and Northern Wyoming News (Tipsy Taxi, 2022) name operators but give no aggregate trip total. Absence is therefore audited, not assumed.", "source": null, "range": [0, 200000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "Cody is one compact grid of about 10,000 people on 10.2 square miles — downtown Sheridan, the west commercial strip, and east-side housing sit a few minutes apart; South Fork and Wapiti are county acreage outside city limits, not separate urban districts a fleet must choose between.", "math": "A multi-district metro would have several named urban cores miles apart. Cody does not: the local neighborhood guide states it lacks Denver/Boise-style neighborhoods, Wikipedia describes a single incorporated city of ~10k (11th-largest in Wyoming) on ~10.2 sq mi of land, and the equivalent-circle radius is only 1.81 miles. One car covers the built-up area.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["city_radius_mi"]}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 1.81, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge mileage; this is the equivalent-circle radius of the settled land area (10.244 sq mi), which matches a compact town whose airport already sits 1.7 miles from the centre.", "math": "r = sqrt(land area / π) = sqrt(10.244 / 3.1416) = sqrt(3.261) = 1.81 miles. The town is a bit elongated along Sheridan/Yellowstone, so the far west strip may sit ~2–3 miles out — this equivalent radius is slightly conservative on the long axis, not on the short one.", "source": null, "range": [1.2, 3.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 3, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Three in-town demand pockets a dispatcher would name, all still inside one ~2-mile radius: historic downtown, the west commercial/rodeo strip, and east-side housing plus the airport road.", "math": "Count only land inside city limits. Local area guide treats Downtown/Historic District, West Strip/West Cody, and Beck Lake as the in-town areas; South Fork and Wapiti Valley are 10–50 minutes out, wells-and-septic county land, so they are not city districts. Electoral map has 3 council wards — those are voting districts, not used here. One car still covers all three.", "source": null, "range": [1, 6], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["geography_type"]}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named districts", "value": "downtown Sheridan Ave (historic shops, Irma, Buffalo Bill Center, hospital); west Yellowstone Ave strip (hotels, Stampede Park, chain retail); east Beck Lake residential and airport road", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the three in-town demand pockets from the local area guide and street layout; South Fork/Wapiti are omitted because they sit outside city limits.", "math": "Downtown/Historic is the only walkable core (Sheridan Ave, museum at 720 Sheridan, hospital at 707 Sheridan). West Strip is the Yellowstone Ave commercial corridor and Stampede Park (519 W Yellowstone). Beck Lake is the established east-side residential area near the rec center; the airport is 1.7 miles SE of centre on the same east side. Not a fourth standalone urban district.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Scheduled flights", "value": "United Express year-round to Denver; seasonal weekend Chicago O'Hare in summer. A spoke, not a hub.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Yellowstone Regional (COD) is a United Express spoke: Denver is the year-round hub connection; Chicago is a thin summer add-on — the opposite of a hub airport's demand pattern. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "More Than Just Parks", "date": "2026-06", "url": "https://morethanjustparks.com/airports-near-yellowstone/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 11 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code COD", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists COD: Yellowstone Regional, Cody WY, 37,437 CY2024 enplanements", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "Cody Regional Health (25-bed CAH, ~700 jobs, plus 94-bed LTC); Park County School District #6 (~380); Walmart (~240); Blair Hotels (~240); Buffalo Bill Center of the West (~135); YTEX (~125); Stampede Park; NWC Cody Center (few dozen on-site)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Named local anchors a fleet would actually serve: the hospital campus, schools, big-box and hotel employment, the museum, the rodeo grounds, and a small college satellite — not Powell's main campus.", "math": "Employer headcounts from Forward Cody's undated EDO list (retrieved 2026-09): CRH ~700, PCSD#6 ~380, Walmart ~240, Blair Hotels ~240, Buffalo Bill Center ~135, YTEX ~125. Acute beds 25 from hospital_beds. CRH's own May 2025 page adds a 94-bed Long-Term Care Center on the same Sheridan campus (extra staff/visitor demand, not counted in hospital_beds). College is the Cody Center satellite only (~35; main NWC campus is Powell). Stampede Park is the venue that fills the town in summer.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 3}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital staffed beds", "value": 25, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Staffed beds at Cody Regional Health, the only hospital in town and a Critical Access Hospital (federal cap 25). Adjacent 94-bed LTC is a nursing home, not acute hospital beds. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Definitive Healthcare", "date": "2024-03", "url": "https://www.definitivehc.com/resources/healthcare-insights/top-hospitals-wyoming-net-patient-revenue", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "found 25 on the same line as 'cody regional health'"}, "range": [10, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment in the city", "value": 35, "unit": "students", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Cody has no standalone college. Northwest College's main campus (1,383 credit students, fall 2025) is in Powell, ~22 miles away; only the Cody Center satellite sits in city limits.", "math": "NWC's Oct 2025 enrollment report charts Cody Center credit-class FTE on a 0–40 axis and states FTE has exceeded headcount since 2019 (heavier allied-health/aeronautics loads). Mid-chart ≈ 35 on-site credit students. Oct 2025 board minutes say live for-credit demand in Cody is weak and hybrid nursing moved to Powell. This ignores Cody residents who commute to Powell or study online, and concurrent high-school classes — likely conservative for city-site classroom demand, far too low if someone wrongly pastes Powell's 1,383.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1500], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Events that move demand", "value": "Cody Stampede July 1–4; Cody Nite Rodeo nightly June 1–Aug 31; Rendezvous Royale / Buffalo Bill Art Show mid-September; Buffalo Bill Birthday Ball late February", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the annual events that actually fill hotels and downtown: the Fourth of July PRCA Stampede, the nightly summer rodeo, September art week, and Buffalo Bill's birthday ball.", "math": "Stampede dates July 1–4 and Nite Rodeo nightly June 1–Aug 31 are in Cody Stampede's 2024 Form 990 program description (CauseIQ). Nite Rodeo 2026 dates confirmed June 1–Aug 31 at Stampede Park (Cowboy Lifestyle Network, Jul 2026). Rendezvous Royale 14–19 Sep 2026 from Cody Yellowstone CVB. Birthday Ball is the Saturday closest to Feb 26 (Cody Yellowstone press, Feb 2026). Nite Rodeo producers have cited ~60k–92k summer attendees (~1,000/night) — that is the volume that moves local demand.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Minimum liability coverage", "value": "$50,000/$100,000/$25,000 while available; $1,000,000 CSL during a prearranged ride", "unit": "limits", "basis": "estimated", "why": "W.S. 31-20-107 is the statewide TNC liability statute; these are the Period-1 split limits and the $1 million on-trip CSL. TNC vehicles are not motor carriers (W.S. 31-20-110), so Wyoming’s $750,000 motor-carrier CSL does not apply. A Cody taxicab that is not a TNC is separately required by city code 3-3-4 to carry $500,000 CSL. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://law.justia.com/codes/wyoming/title-31/chapter-20/section-31-20-107/: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [25000, 2000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration", "value": "$30 state passenger-car fee plus a county fee of 3% of depreciated factory price (minimum $5); TNC vehicles are not registered as commercial", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "W.S. 31-3-101 is the statewide fee schedule a TNC vehicle actually pays, because W.S. 31-20-110(c) (also retrieved) forbids registering it as a commercial vehicle or public-transportation business and W.S. 31-20-111 bars Cody from requiring a TNC license. If the same car is licensed as a Cody taxicab instead of a TNC, city code 3-3-3 charges $100 for the first cab and $50 for each additional cab per calendar year. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://law.justia.com/codes/wyoming/title-31/chapter-3/section-31-3-101/: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [5, 2000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Monthly downtown parking", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Cody does not sell downtown parking. City code controls on-street parking only with time limits and an overtime fine; there is no meter tariff, monthly stall permit, or parking-authority rate on the city site or in the ordinance.", "math": "Opened Cody Code 6-4-1 (https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/codywy/latest/cody_wy/0-0-0-1764): downtown is two-hour parking where signed, 8:30 a.m.–5:30 p.m., with a $25 overtime penalty, not a charge to park. Opened 6-3-1 (https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/codywy/latest/cody_wy/0-0-0-1698): leftover model-ordinance words about 'areas controlled by parking meters' but no meter price. Opened 10-16-2 (https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/codywy/latest/cody_wy/0-0-0-4933): the downtown parking district exempts uses from providing up to 100 off-street spaces, which is how a town that does not meter the curb still supplies downtown parking. Searched codywy.gov (FAQ, citations, news) and found no parking-rate or permit page. Value is therefore $0/month. Likely conservative as a cash cost: a third-party private-lot listing is not a city rate and is ignored.", "source": null, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-11", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.3, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0260 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.31x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.28x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.15, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0346, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Cody who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.30x: 0.1152 x 0.30 = 0.0346. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0138 to 0.0865, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0138, 0.0865], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.2, 2.2, 2, 2.2, 2. The MEDIAN, 2.2, is used; the draws spanned 2 to 2.2, a factor of 1.10. With only 0.026 of households carless and a 9.5-minute mean commute, an active local user is typically one night-out round trip or an airport hop, not habitual riding.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.1104, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "37,437 boardings at COD in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 339,000 visitors a year = 0.110. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Annual visitors', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [0.055, 0.166], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "37,437 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 37,437; FAA CY2024 enplanements for COD = 37,437 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.15, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.16, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.16. The MEDIAN, 0.15, is used; the draws spanned 0.15 to 0.16, a factor of 1.07. COD is only 1.7 miles from centre with no rail or real transit, but 37,437 annual boardings mark a tiny park-gateway airport where rental cars still take most air-visitor transfers.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "37,437 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 37,437; FAA CY2024 enplanements for COD = 37,437 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.4, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.35. The MEDIAN, 0.4, is used; the draws spanned 0.35 to 0.4, a factor of 1.14. A 2.7-night stay in a 10.244-square-mile town keeps in-stay taxi use low because downtown is compact and most parties already have a car for the visit.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.433, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.110 arriving by air x 0.150 of those hiring a ride = 0.033, plus 0.400 trips in town = 0.433 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.37 to 0.45. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 169, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 10377 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.7761 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0346 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.2 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 339000 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 2.7 (a published figure); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.433 (our estimate). Residents: 10,377 people x 0.7761 adults = 8,054 adults; x 0.0346 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 279 people; x 2.2 trips each a month = 613 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 20 resident rides a day. Visitors: 339,000 a year / 2.7 people in a party = 125,556 visiting parties; x 0.433 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 149 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 88% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 169 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 134 rides a day, and at its own high bound 206. The 169 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in order: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Wyoming has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. TNCs are governed exclusively by W.S. 31-20 (local governments may not license or tax TNC trips). The Wyoming Public Service Commission annual reports cover electric, gas, water, pipelines, and telecom, not taxis or TNCs (psc.wyo.gov utility annual reports). WYDOT publishes AADT, not for-hire trips. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire permit reports — searched codywy.gov; no trip census. Closest local number is the City Tipsy Taxi voucher program: Town Taxi alone averaged 30–35 vouchers/month (about 50 in summer) as of 2022, which is a drunk-ride subsidy for one company, not all paid rides. (3) Airport ground transportation — Yellowstone Regional Airport publishes enplanements (37,033 in 2024) but no TNC/taxi pickup counts; Lyft's Wyoming airport list omits COD entirely; Uber's COD pickup page has no volumes. (4) MPO travel survey — no MPO; the 2016 Park County Transit Feasibility Study is about whether to start a bus, not a paid-ride count. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — Cowboy State Daily (Cody Cab driver Earl Farlow, Jun 2025) and Northern Wyoming News (Tipsy Taxi, 2022) name operators but give no aggregate trip total. Absence is therefore audited, not assumed. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [42, 676], "editable": true, "low": 134, "high": 206, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in order: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Wyoming has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. TNCs are governed exclusively by W.S. 31-20 (local governments may not license or tax TNC trips). The Wyoming Public Service Commission annual reports cover electric, gas, water, pipelines, and telecom, not taxis or TNCs (psc.wyo.gov utility annual reports). WYDOT publishes AADT, not for-hire trips. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire permit reports — searched codywy.gov; no trip census. Closest local number is the City Tipsy Taxi voucher program: Town Taxi alone averaged 30–35 vouchers/month (about 50 in summer) as of 2022, which is a drunk-ride subsidy for one company, not all paid rides. (3) Airport ground transportation — Yellowstone Regional Airport publishes enplanements (37,033 in 2024) but no TNC/taxi pickup counts; Lyft's Wyoming airport list omits COD entirely; Uber's COD pickup page has no volumes. (4) MPO travel survey — no MPO; the 2016 Park County Transit Feasibility Study is about whether to start a bus, not a paid-ride count. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — Cowboy State Daily (Cody Cab driver Earl Farlow, Jun 2025) and Northern Wyoming News (Tipsy Taxi, 2022) name operators but give no aggregate trip total. Absence is therefore audited, not assumed.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 169, "our_range_per_day": [42, 676]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "10,377 people", "federal": "the note says 10,377; the Census file says Cody city 10,377 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Price Summary Sheet PS-1 is the official P.S.C. Wyoming No. 19 tariff sheet that layers riders onto Schedule 19; issued 7 Jul 2026, effective 1 Jul 2026. Combined Prices exclude local taxes and the monthly basic/$2 meter fees. TOU windows do not match a midnight–6 / 6–16 / 16–24 split: off-peak runs 11 p.m.–7 a.m. and 9 a.m.–5 p.m., so overnight charging can run until 7 a.m. Schedule 29 (commercial TOU, 100 slots) incremental off-peak energy after the first 100 kWh per kW is 6.962−2.393=4.569¢/kWh all-in — cheaper than Schedule 19 off-peak, but the first block is 26.142¢ on-peak / 23.749¢ off-peak, and DCFC demand can trap a site in that expensive block. Cody DCFC $0.55 sits next to Wyoming’s published-site DCFC average of $0.52/kWh. ChargeHub date is the live listing retrieved Sep 2026 (stall last used <24 hours); Rivian Roamer independently showed the same EV Connect stall at 0.55 USD per kWh.", "demand": "Cody is a Yellowstone-east-gate tourist town of 10,377 on 10.244 sq mi. Established local facts that should dominate any ride chain: 0% of workers commute by transit or by taxi/ride-hail, 2.6% of households have no vehicle, mean commute 9.5 minutes, 8.13% work from home. Visitors, not residents, are most of paid-ride demand. visitors_year is calendar-year 2025 Park County hotel/motel/STVR person-trips (339,000) from Dean Runyan — the lodging slice that sits in Cody — not the 1,037,000 county all-overnight total and not the 300k–400k ‘typical summer’ journalistic range (WPM 2022 and 2024), though those three figures agree in order of magnitude. Party size 2.7 and stay 2.7 nights are the same 2025 Park County all-overnight row. Uber’s Cody page is an SEO template (it advertises Cheyenne–Denver as a ‘popular route in Cody’) so its ‘8-minute / $16’ fare blurb was not used as a local measurement. Lyft is legal in Wyoming but COD is not on Lyft’s permitted-airport list. Supporting URLs a verifier may also open: https://cowboystatedaily.com/2025/06/29/robotaxis-are-here-but-cant-yet-handle-a-wyoming-winter/ (Cody Cab); https://www.wyodaily.com/story/2022/02/03/news/cody-taxi-drivers-happy-with-tipsy-taxi-hike/12892.html (Town Taxi / Tipsy Taxi); https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-ca/articles/115012922807-Wyoming-airport-information-for-drivers (COD absent); https://www.airnav.com/airport/COD (airport 2 miles SE); https://westerntransportationinstitute.org/research_projects/park-county-public-transportation-feasibility-study/ (no intercity bus); https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/open-spaces/2022-10-14/as-yellowstone-goes-so-goes-cody-how-one-town-of-10-000-relies-on-tourism (300k–400k summer visitors; 2,800 hotel rooms); https://industry.travelwyoming.com/research/travel-economic-impacts/ (report landing page, March 2026); https://www.energy.gov/cmei/vehicles/articles/fotw-1363-october-7-2024-road-passenger-trips-over-75-miles-accounted-just (73.1% of US trips ≤10 miles); https:/", "geography": "Official airport site flyyra.com returned 403, so flight facts come from a 2026 trip guide plus Wikipedia/airport-director coverage (Chicago is ~18 summer flights May 22–Sep 19 2026 per Cody Journal interview with YRA director Aaron Buck — not put in the record because it is not on the cited flights URL). Cody Center enrollment is a chart, not a printed headcount; 35 is read off the 0–40 FTE axis. Hospital 25 is CAH acute/staffed; CRH also runs a 94-bed LTC on Sheridan that is extra demand but is not hospital_beds. Population, land area, COD code, 2024 boardings, and 1.7-mile airport distance were taken from the bulk layer and not re-researched. Forward Cody employer counts are undated approximations on the EDO site.", "costs": "Insurance and registration figures are from the 2025 Wyoming Statutes compilation on Justia; the same TNC insurance text is in the Wyoming Legislature Title 31 PDF (https://wyoleg.gov/statutes/compress/title31.pdf, retrieved this session). Justia is a republication of the official code, not a broker summary. TNC vs taxicab is a real fork in Cody: TNC vehicles use ordinary passenger registration and W.S. 31-20-107 limits; a licensed Cody taxicab instead pays city code 3-3-3 ($100/$50 per year) and must carry $500,000 CSL under 3-3-4. Park County uses the statewide 31-3-101 formula (county treasurer calculator at https://parkcounty-wy.gov/county-treasurer/fee-calculator/). Parking $0 is an estimate from the absence of any city paid-parking schedule after checking Title 6 Ch. 3–4, Title 10 Ch. 16, and codywy.gov."}, "gaps": ["visitor_air_arrival_share: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitors_year', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 30, "derived": 29, "estimated": 21}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 30, "primary": 18, "secondary": 12, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 50, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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"wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip"}, "acs2024-b25064-us-states.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1043, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25064.dat"}, "noaa\\US1WYPK0007.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1522, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1WYPK0007.csv"}, "noaa\\USC00481840.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 41498, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00481840.csv"}}, "downloads_this_run": 0, "cache_reuses_this_run": 33, "not_bulk_sourced_and_why": "What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. 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"secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/wyoming/title-31/chapter-3/section-31-3-101/", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 2065.7}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "cody-wy", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.15, "draws": [0.16, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.16], "min": 0.15, "max": 0.16, "spread_x": 1.07}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.4, "draws": [0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.35], "min": 0.35, "max": 0.4, "spread_x": 1.14}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.2, "draws": [2.2, 2.2, 2.0, 2.2, 2.0], "min": 2.0, "max": 2.2, "spread_x": 1.1}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [134, 206]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in order: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Wyoming has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. TNCs are governed exclusively by W.S. 31-20 (local governments may not license or tax TNC trips). The Wyoming Public Service Commission annual reports cover electric, gas, water, pipelines, and telecom, not taxis or TNCs (psc.wyo.gov utility annual reports). WYDOT publishes AADT, not for-hire trips. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire permit reports — searched codywy.gov; no trip census. Closest local number is the City Tipsy Taxi voucher program: Town Taxi alone averaged 30–35 vouchers/month (about 50 in summer) as of 2022, which is a drunk-ride subsidy for one company, not all paid rides. (3) Airport ground transportation — Yellowstone Regional Airport publishes enplanements (37,033 in 2024) but no TNC/taxi pickup counts; Lyft's Wyoming airport list omits COD entirely; Uber's COD pickup page has no volumes. (4) MPO travel survey — no MPO; the 2016 Park County Transit Feasibility Study is about whether to start a bus, not a paid-ride count. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — Cowboy State Daily (Cody Cab driver Earl Farlow, Jun 2025) and Northern Wyoming News (Tipsy Taxi, 2022) name operators but give no aggregate trip total. Absence is therefore audited, not assumed.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 169, "our_range_per_day": [42, 676]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Cody, 30 are published figures, 29 are worked out from published figures, and 21 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [44.521242, -109.057469], "geoid": "5615760", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Cody city", "population": 10377, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Park County", "population": 31171, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 1, "dcfc_ports": 1, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "DENNY MENHOLT CHEVROLET BUICK GMC", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.3, "open_date": "2024-03-07"}], "l2_sites": 3, "l2_ports": 5, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "DENNY MENHOLT CHEVROLET BUICK GMC", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.3, "city": "CODY", "state": "WY"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 7, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 6, "claims": 13, "records_touched": 9, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "EV Connect fast charging here", "claim_text": "Cody’s only public DCFC is an EV Connect 50 kW CCS stall at Denny Menholt Chevrolet Buick GMC, 1172 16th St;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists DENNY MENHOLT CHEVROLET BUICK GMC (EV Connect, 1 fast ports, 0.3 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no Tesla Supercharger here", "claim_text": "No Tesla Supercharger in town.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 1 open public DC fast-charging site (1 fast port) within 10 miles and none of them is Tesla Supercharger -- agrees", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "airport_flights_note", "field": "why", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code COD", "claim_text": "Yellowstone Regional (COD) is a United Express spoke: Denver is the year-round hub connection;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists COD: Yellowstone Regional, Cody WY, 37,437 CY2024 enplanements", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Cody Regional Health (25-bed CAH, ~700 jobs, plus 94-bed LTC);", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Acute beds 25 from hospital_beds.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "CRH's own May 2025 page adds a 94-bed Long-Term Care Center on the same Sheridan campus (extra staff/visitor demand, not counted in hospital_beds).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Staffed beds at Cody Regional Health, the only hospital in town and a Critical Access Hospital (federal cap 25).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Adjacent 94-bed LTC is a nursing home, not acute hospital beds.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "37,437 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "37,437 boardings at COD in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 339,000 visitors a year = 0.110.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 37,437; FAA CY2024 enplanements for COD = 37,437 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "37,437 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "COD is only 1.7 miles from centre with no rail or real transit, but 37,437 annual boardings mark a tiny park-gateway airport where rental cars still take most air-visitor transfers.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 37,437; FAA CY2024 enplanements for COD = 37,437 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "10,377 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 10,377 people x 0.7761 adults = 8,054 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 10,377; the Census file says Cody city 10,377 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "10,377 people", "claim_text": "Cody is a Yellowstone-east-gate tourist town of 10,377 on 10.244 sq mi.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 10,377; the Census file says Cody city 10,377 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "CRH also runs a 94-bed LTC on Sheridan that is extra demand but is not hospital_beds.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 4, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 4, "passes_the_same_test_now": 2, "still_fails_the_same_test": 2, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/wyoming/title-31/chapter-20/section-31-20-107/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 4 of the 5 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "registration_note", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/wyoming/title-31/chapter-3/section-31-3-101/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 8 of the 11 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "ridehail_present", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/cody-wy-us/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 5 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "visitors_year", "url": "https://assets.simpleviewinc.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/wyoming/2025_Wyoming_Travel_Impacts_Final_b9de41a1-a6ec-4ac0-a2e4-b30afa679cad.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the figure is not on the page)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the figure is not on the page"}]}}, "ok": true}