{"id": "clifton-az", "label": "Clifton, AZ", "city": "Clifton", "state": "AZ", "county": "Greenlee County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 3752, "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 28, "derived": 29, "estimated": 23}, "gaps": 4, "citations": {"checked": 17, "passed": 10, "failed": 7}, "research_cost_usd": 4.011, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Clifton, 28 are published figures, 29 are worked out from published figures, and 23 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "clifton-az", "city": "Clifton", "state": "AZ", "label": "Clifton, AZ", "county": "Greenlee County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 3752, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Clifton town, Arizona.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 0414380 -- Clifton town, Arizona"}, "range": [1876, 7504], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 14.678, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Clifton town. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_04.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 0414380 -- Clifton town"}, "range": [7.3, 29.4], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 256, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "3,752 residents divided by 14.678 square miles of land = 256 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [102, 640], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 9312, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Greenlee County, Arizona. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 04011 -- Greenlee County, Arizona"}, "range": [4656, 18624], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Grant County", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "SVC", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 6915, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM"}, "range": [3457, 13830], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": -0.8, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 6,915 against CY2023 6,973, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (6,915 - 6,973) / 6,973 = -0.8%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 70.9, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (33.029570, -109.284039, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (32.636552, -108.156395, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 70.9 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [35.4, 177.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "Tucson International (TUS) 115 mi away, 1,959,789 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1518, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Arizona in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Arizona, June 2026"}, "range": [0.076, 0.304], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1247, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Arizona, June 2026"}, "range": [0.062, 0.249], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1545, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Arizona, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.077, 0.309], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Arizona Public Service Co", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Greenlee County, AZ -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 4 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Arizona Public Service Co (#803), Greenlee County County rows, AZ"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "Navopache Electric Coop, Inc (40,076 customers); Duncan Valley Elec Coop, Inc (2,284 customers); Morenci Water and Electric (2,232 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Arizona Public Service Co (#803), Greenlee County County rows, AZ"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1645, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Arizona Public Service Co, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Arizona Public Service Co: residential revenue of $2,562,822.5 thousand against 15,579,131 MWh sold. (2,562,822.5 x 1,000 dollars) / (15,579,131 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1645 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.082, 0.329], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1323, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Arizona Public Service Co: commercial revenue of $2,125,533.6 thousand against 16,070,942 MWh sold, so $0.1323 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.066, 0.265], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00021849", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00021849.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 67.3, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00021849: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 67.3F.", "source": null, "range": [52.3, 82.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 47.3, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "December is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00021849", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00021849.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [32.3, 62.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 87.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00021849", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00021849.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [72.4, 102.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 17.02, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00021849: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 17.02 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [8.5, 30.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 55.4, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00021849: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 55.4 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 0.0, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00021849, 2.3 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 0.0 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 0.0, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00021849", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00021849.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.6272, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Clifton, AZ, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: total population 3,822, of whom 1,425 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (3,822 - 1,425) / 3,822 = 0.6272.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 78480, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Clifton, AZ. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US0414380, B19013_E001"}, "range": [39240, 156960], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Clifton, AZ with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: 1,256 occupied households, of which 0 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 0 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (0 + 0) / 1,256 = 0.0000, or 0.0%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.9067, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: 1,428 of 1,575 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.9067, or 90.67%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: 0 of 1,575 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: 0 of 1,575 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: 0 of 1,575 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 21.3, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Clifton, AZ. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US0414380: 33,490 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 1,575 workers who did not work from home = 21.3 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 15.26, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Arizona nonmetropolitan area, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Arizona nonmetropolitan area', 100 people employed in it: median hourly wage $15.26. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 15.26 / 16.96 = 0.900.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 0400001 -- Arizona nonmetropolitan area"}, "range": [9.16, 27.47], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 15.26, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Arizona nonmetropolitan area"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Arizona nonmetropolitan area are paid a median of $15.26 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 100 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 90% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.9, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Arizona nonmetropolitan area' is $15.26 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 15.26 / 16.96 = 0.900. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.43, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $607 a month in Clifton, AZ (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 607 / 1413 = 0.430.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 31, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.900 = $31.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [13, 79], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 65, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.900 = $65.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [26, 163], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 136, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.900 = $136.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [54, 340], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 548, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.430 = $548 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [219, 1643], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 360, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,343.85 in AZ against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1343.85 / 1281.60 = 1.049. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 1.049 = $360 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [144, 1080], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1343.85, "unit": "$/year", "note": "AZ average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 306, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$360 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $306. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [122, 918], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.08468, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "APS Rate Schedule R-EV bundled Overnight Energy Charge (11pm-5am weekdays year-round) that covers nearly the entire midnight-06:00 window for EV charging; includes generation, delivery, transmission and system benefits (riders add ~3.3¢ extra). This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Arizona Public Service Co", "date": "2024-03", "url": "https://www.aps.com/-/media/APS/APSCOM-PDFs/Utility/Regulatory-and-Legal/Regulatory-Plan-Details-Tariffs/Residential/Service-Plans/R-EV-Overnight.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.03, 0.15], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.12345, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "APS TOU-E / R-EV Off-Peak Energy Charge (bundled); 06:00-16:00 is off-peak except winter weekday super-off-peak 10am-3pm at 3.495¢ which is even lower. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Arizona Public Service Co", "date": "2024-03", "url": "https://www.aps.com/-/media/APS/APSCOM-PDFs/Utility/Regulatory-and-Legal/Regulatory-Plan-Details-Tariffs/Residential/Service-Plans/Time-of-Use-4pm-7pmWeekdays_R-TOU-E.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.04, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening peak electricity", "value": 0.34396, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "APS TOU-E summer On-Peak Energy Charge (4pm-7pm weekdays); the 16:00-midnight window mixes 3 hours of this rate with 5 hours of off-peak so the bucket average is lower. R-EV on-peak is 36.824¢. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Arizona Public Service Co", "date": "2024-03", "url": "https://www.aps.com/-/media/APS/APSCOM-PDFs/Utility/Regulatory-and-Legal/Regulatory-Plan-Details-Tariffs/Residential/Service-Plans/Time-of-Use-4pm-7pmWeekdays_R-TOU-E.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.48, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Arizona public DC fast estimate (secondary compilation); Clifton has zero public DCFC stations within 10 miles. Typical of Electrify America non-member pricing in the state. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://costtocharge.com/states/arizona: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 429). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0.3, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes, APS R-EV (EV Overnight Charging 11pm-5am Weekdays) and TOU-E (Time-of-Use 4pm-7pm Weekdays); a small EV-owning operator can take R-EV.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "APS actively offers and markets these residential TOU tariffs with a dedicated cheap overnight EV window a small operator could use. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.aps.com/en/Residential/Service-Plans/Compare-Service-Plans/EV-Overnight-Charging-11pm-5am-Weekdays: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 12 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["No", "Yes several named TOU plans"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi service on the ground", "value": "No local taxi. Uber and Lyft hold Arizona statewide TNC permits but have no evident resident drivers in Clifton; supply is effectively zero.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "ACS already shows 0% of Clifton workers commute by taxi or ride-hail and 0% of households have no vehicle, so any app coverage is a statewide license, not a working local fleet.", "math": "Checked ADOT Vehicle-for-Hire FAQ (statewide TNC permit, no city trip data), BBB taxi listings near Morenci (Globe/Tucson/Show Low firms only, none in Clifton), and aggregator fare pages that reprint Arizona rate cards. In a 3,752-person mining town with universal car access, that is not a functioning ride-hail market.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus service", "value": "No public bus. Greenlee is one of two Arizona counties with no public transit; Easterseals Blake Foundation runs demand-response for seniors and people with disabilities only, not evenings or weekends for the general public.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Absence of evening/weekend general-public transit is the local fact that pushes leftover trips onto cars; ACS already records 0% of Clifton workers commuting by public transport.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Arizona Developmental Disabilities Planning Council", "date": "2025-08", "url": "https://addpc.az.gov/sites/default/files/Final%20Transportation%20Report%20Text_Summer%202025.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 5.0, "unit": "mi", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes paid-trip lengths for Clifton, so the town's own land area and the Clifton–Morenci corridor are the right local geometry.", "math": "Census land area is 14.678 sq mi, equivalent circular radius 2.16 mi; the town is linear along the San Francisco River canyon, so intra-Clifton hops are about 1–3 mi. Driving Clifton to Morenci is 4–8 mi (the shopping/mine corridor). Safford medical trips are ~28–45 mi because Greenlee County has no hospital. Mix assumed: 40% intra-town at 2 mi, 50% Clifton–Morenci at 4.5 mi, 10% out-of-town at 20 mi → 0.40*2 + 0.50*4.5 + 0.10*20 = 5.0 mi. Stepped down from urban ride-hail averages (~5–6 mi) onto this small linear town, not onto a metro. Universal car ownership (0% no-vehicle households) makes very long paid trips uncommon.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 15], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.4, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Most leftover paid trips here are bar, visitor-center, and Chase Creek hops inside a linear town only a few miles long.", "math": "RideAustin (a published TNC trip file) had 44% of paid trips under 3 miles in a much larger city. Clifton is smaller and linear, which would raise the short share, but the dominant Clifton–Morenci job/shopping pair is 4–8 miles, which sits above the 3-mile cut. Net 0.40, a step down from that 44% urban benchmark onto this geography. Mean commute is 21.3 minutes, so many work trips are not short; paid demand still skews shorter because households all have cars (0% no-vehicle).", "source": null, "range": [0.15, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.1, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The only regular over-10-mile paid destinations are Safford/Thatcher medical and shopping; Greenlee County has no hospital.", "math": "RideAustin long-trip share was 14% over 10 miles. Clifton has a stronger reason for some long trips (no hospital; Safford ~28–45 mi) but a weaker one overall: 0% of households lack a vehicle, so residents who must go to Safford already drive. Keep 0.10, a slight step down from 14% because car access here is complete. Remaining 0.50 of trips fall in the 3–10 mi Clifton–Morenci band.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.1, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Night paid-ride demand in Clifton is bar leftover, not hospital shift-change or college nights.", "math": "21:00–03:00 is 25% of clock time; urban ride-hail often puts 15–20% of trips in that window. Clifton has a hotel bar and an American Legion but no hospital (Greenlee County has none) and no college. The Morenci mine runs 24/7, yet ACS shows 0% of workers commute by taxi and 0% of households have no vehicle, so shift change is in private cars. Step the urban night share down to 0.10. Likely conservative on the high side if the bars are quiet on weeknights.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 26000, "unit": "visitors/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "2024 is the latest complete calendar year in the Arizona Office of Tourism / Dean Runyan county tables; no DMO publishes a Clifton head-count, and Greenlee is a mining county with a small visitor economy, not a tourist city.", "math": "Dean Runyan (for AOT) reports Greenlee County visitor spending of $14.9 million in 2024 (hotel/motel guest spending $7.0M, VFR $5.7M, day travel $1.5M; lodging receipts $3.2M). Rode Inn in Clifton has 33 rooms; with the Morenci Motel and Clifton Hotel the Clifton–Morenci stock is on the order of 80 rooms. At ~55% occupancy that is ~16,000 occupied room-nights; at 1.7 people per room and 2.0 nights that is ~13,600 hotel guests. Scale VFR by the $5.7M / $7.0M spend ratio → ~11,000 VFR visitors. Day travel at ~$75 per person → ~20,000 county day visits, many of them US-191 pass-throughs. Clifton is the historic district and visitor-center hub, so take ~55% of county overnight visitors plus a thin slice of day visits ≈ 26,000 people who actually stop in Clifton in 2024. Direction: likely high if mine contractors (work trucks, little ride-hail) are counted as visitors; likely low if Coronado Trail day traffic is understated.", "source": null, "range": [5000, 80000], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitor_party_size", "visitor_nights_avg"]}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 1.7, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Visitor authorities do not publish a Clifton or Greenlee party size; motel demand here is mostly mine contractors who often travel alone, not leisure families.", "math": "U.S. overnight leisure parties typically run about 2.2–2.5 people. Clifton’s Rode Inn markets itself to Freeport-McMoRan contractors and vendors, who more often occupy a room as one person. Mix one-third leisure couples (2.2) and two-thirds contractor/solo (1.4) → 0.33*2.2 + 0.67*1.4 = 1.66, rounded to 1.7. Give 1 only if this were purely a fly-in business market; it is not.", "source": null, "range": [1, 3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 2.0, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No Clifton DMO stay-length table exists; 2024 county tourism briefings describe Greenlee trips as short and purpose-driven, and the motel stock is overnight contractor lodging, not week-long vacation stays.", "math": "Arizona Office of Tourism 2024 county commentary put Greenlee overnight length at just under two days (Cochise ~2.9, Graham ~2, Santa Cruz ~1.8). Contractor rooms can run longer than a weekend leisure stop; Coronado Trail pass-throughs are shorter. Use 2.0 nights as the midpoint. Not 1, because most of the $7.0M hotel-guest spend is overnight, not same-day.", "source": null, "range": [1, 5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No independent taxi or TNC trip total exists for Clifton or Greenlee County, so the chain cannot be cross-checked against an official count; 0 here means none published, not zero rides.", "math": "Checked in the required order: (1) Arizona ADOT Vehicle-for-Hire / TNC program — statewide permits only, no county or city trip PDFs; (2) Town of Clifton and Greenlee County — no TNC/for-hire open-data portal or permit trip reports; (3) Airport — Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general aviation with no commercial passenger service and no TNC pickup stats; PHX Sky Harbor TNC totals are Phoenix, ~200 miles away; (4) SEAGO, the regional COG — transit coordination studies document no public transit in Greenlee, not TNC trips, and no household travel survey with paid-ride counts; (5) Local reporting — no news story quoting a taxi or TNC trip total for Clifton or Greenlee. Absence is audit-able; it is not a finding that zero paid rides occur.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CFT", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CFT (Greenlee County) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "Town layout type", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Clifton occupies a narrow river canyon with three adjacent neighborhoods that sit within walking or a few minutes' drive of one another; one vehicle covers the entire built-up community. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.visitgreenleecounty.com/communities/clifton/clifton/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 1 of the 2 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["single-radius town", "multi-district metro"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "Built-up radius", "value": 2.16, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "Equivalent circular radius of the given 14.678 sq mi land area; the actual developed strip is a much smaller linear canyon so this figure is an upper bound on distance from centre to the edge of town.", "math": "sqrt(14.678 / 3.1416) = sqrt(4.672) ≈ 2.16 miles. Corporate limits include large tracts of steep undeveloped land; the inhabited canyon corridor is roughly 4 miles long, so a realistic centre-to-edge distance is 1.5–2.5 mi.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 5.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Number of demand districts", "value": 3, "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The town's own tourism description names three distinct, adjacent neighbourhoods that together constitute the whole community. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Greenlee Arizona Tourism", "date": "2019-08", "url": "https://www.visitgreenleecounty.com/communities/clifton/clifton/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [1, 5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named districts", "value": "South Clifton (residential, courthouse, former high school), East Clifton (depot, river, highway, RV park), Chase Creek (historic commercial, town hall, post office)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the three neighbourhoods named and described on the county tourism site; they lie next to one another along the canyon and do not function as separate demand zones. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Greenlee Arizona Tourism", "date": "2019-08", "url": "https://www.visitgreenleecounty.com/communities/clifton/clifton/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 13 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["South Clifton / East Clifton / Chase Creek", "other"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Scheduled flights at nearest commercial airport", "value": "typically 3–4 daily departures (24 per week) on Advanced Air turboprops to Albuquerque and Phoenix", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Grant County (SVC) is a small Essential-Air-Service airport, not a hub; the modest schedule produces a very different demand pattern from a multi-frequency hub. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.airlineinformation.com/AN/SVC: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["2 daily to one hub", "dozens of daily hub flights"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named demand generators", "value": "Freeport-McMoRan Morenci copper mine (3,600 jobs), Greenlee County government (170), Morenci Unified School District (180), Town of Clifton (60); historic Chase Creek district and train-depot visitor centre; no hospital or college in town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The mine and county government dominate employment; there is neither a hospital nor a college inside Clifton itself. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://azmag.gov/Portals/0/Maps-Data/Employment/Employer-Highlights/Greenlee-TextOnly.pdf: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["mine + county + schools", "other"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Staffed beds at largest hospital", "value": 0, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Clifton has only an outpatient clinic; Greenlee County is a hospital desert. The nearest hospital (Mt. Graham Regional Medical Center, 25 beds) is in Safford, ~40 miles away.", "math": "No acute-care hospital exists inside Clifton or Greenlee County. Patients are referred to Mount Graham (explicitly 25-bed Critical Access Hospital). Therefore the in-city figure is 0.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrolment in city", "value": 0, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No college or university campus operates in Clifton; the former Clifton Unified district closed in 2010 and students now attend Morenci USD or Eastern Arizona College 31 miles away.", "math": "Searches of Wikipedia, IPEDS-style directories and local plans turn up zero higher-education institutions inside the town limits. Nearest college (Eastern Arizona College, Thatcher) reports ~5,076 students but is outside the city.", "source": null, "range": [0, 500], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Annual events that move demand", "value": "Festival of Lights (December, Chase Creek Street), Frisco River Fest (late March, Riverside Park), Colors of Copper art show (late February, Train Depot)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These three recurring, locally organised events are the ones documented as drawing crowds into the canyon neighbourhoods. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Eastern Arizona Courier / Art Depot of Clifton", "date": "2025-04", "url": "https://www.eacourier.com/copper_era/frisco-river-fest-is-part-of-a-bigger-vision-for-clifton/article_3336e615-b6c2-44d1-9c72-c57e67f20fa0.html", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["Festival of Lights / Frisco River Fest / Colors of Copper", "other"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Arizona for-hire / TNC minimum liability limits", "value": "TNC: 25/50/20 when available; $250k CSL ($1M with passenger) + UM $25k/75k when occupied. Taxi/livery similar (ARS 28-4038, 28-4039)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Statutory minimum financial-responsibility limits Arizona requires of transportation-network companies and taxi/livery/for-hire vehicles; taken directly from the Arizona Revised Statutes. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.azleg.gov/ars/28/04038.htm: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 9 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking space", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Clifton (pop. 3,752) has no paid parking meters, permits or lots; municipal court and town code confirm free street parking. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://azcourthelp.org/appeals/clifton-municipal: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the figure is not on the page). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration and permit costs", "value": "AZ Vehicle-for-Hire company permit required (taxi $24 per vehicle for 3-year term, max $1,000; TNC $1,000 company fee). Plus ordinary commercial registration ($4 + weight/VLT). No extra Clifton city permit found.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Fees published by Arizona DOT for taxi/livery and TNC operators; Clifton has no additional local for-hire ordinance.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Arizona DOT", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://azdot.gov/mvd/services/professional-services/vehicle-hire-licensing/faq", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.3, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0000 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.00x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.25x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.15, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0346, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Clifton who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.30x: 0.1152 x 0.30 = 0.0346. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0138 to 0.0865, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0138, 0.0865], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.0, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2, 2, 2, 2, 2. The MEDIAN, 2, is used; the draws spanned 2 to 2, a factor of 1.00. With 0.0 of households lacking a vehicle and a 21.3-minute commute in a town of 3752, even active local users take only a small handful of trips per month.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,752 people", "federal": "the note says 3,752; the Census file says Clifton town 3,752 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "No air-arrival share could be built: the nearest commercial airport is too far away to be this town's. It is set to zero, which means the airport transfer contributes nothing to the visitor trip count and this chain is a FLOOR for any town whose visitors do fly in.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 0.05], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.08, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.1, 0.05, 0.08, 0.1, 0.08. The MEDIAN, 0.08, is used; the draws spanned 0.05 to 0.1, a factor of 2.00. SVC boarded only 6915 passengers and is 70.9 miles from Clifton, so almost all air arrivals rent a car rather than take a long taxi or ride-hail.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "6,915 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 6,915; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SVC = 6,915 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.4, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2. The MEDIAN, 0.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.2 to 0.4, a factor of 2.00. A 2.0-night stay in a 14.678-square-mile town of 3752 with 0.0 of households lacking a vehicle means visiting parties take almost no extra local taxi trips.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,752 people", "federal": "the note says 3,752; the Census file says Clifton town 3,752 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.000 arriving by air x 0.080 of those hiring a ride = 0.000, plus 0.200 trips in town = 0.200 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.20 to 0.40. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 14, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 3752 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.6272 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0346 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.0 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 26000 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 1.7 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.2 (our estimate). Residents: 3,752 people x 0.6272 adults = 2,353 adults; x 0.0346 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 81 people; x 2.0 trips each a month = 163 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 5 resident rides a day. Visitors: 26,000 a year / 1.7 people in a party = 15,294 visiting parties; x 0.2 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 8 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 61% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 14 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 11 rides a day, and at its own high bound 30. The 14 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in the required order: (1) Arizona ADOT Vehicle-for-Hire / TNC program — statewide permits only, no county or city trip PDFs; (2) Town of Clifton and Greenlee County — no TNC/for-hire open-data portal or permit trip reports; (3) Airport — Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general aviation with no commercial passenger service and no TNC pickup stats; PHX Sky Harbor TNC totals are Phoenix, ~200 miles away; (4) SEAGO, the regional COG — transit coordination studies document no public transit in Greenlee, not TNC trips, and no household travel survey with paid-ride counts; (5) Local reporting — no news story quoting a taxi or TNC trip total for Clifton or Greenlee. Absence is audit-able; it is not a finding that zero paid rides occur. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [3, 55], "editable": true, "low": 11, "high": 30, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order: (1) Arizona ADOT Vehicle-for-Hire / TNC program — statewide permits only, no county or city trip PDFs; (2) Town of Clifton and Greenlee County — no TNC/for-hire open-data portal or permit trip reports; (3) Airport — Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general aviation with no commercial passenger service and no TNC pickup stats; PHX Sky Harbor TNC totals are Phoenix, ~200 miles away; (4) SEAGO, the regional COG — transit coordination studies document no public transit in Greenlee, not TNC trips, and no household travel survey with paid-ride counts; (5) Local reporting — no news story quoting a taxi or TNC trip total for Clifton or Greenlee. Absence is audit-able; it is not a finding that zero paid rides occur.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 14, "our_range_per_day": [3, 55]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,752 people", "federal": "the note says 3,752; the Census file says Clifton town 3,752 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}], "notes": {"power": "Tariff energy charges (bundled generation+delivery) from 2024 APS PDFs still shown on 2026 consumer pages. Current riders (PSA+REAC+TCA+LFCR+DSMAC+CRS) add ~$0.033/kWh making all-in overnight ~$0.118. Clifton has no public DCFC.", "demand": "Clifton is a 3,752-person Greenlee County mining town next to the Morenci open-pit mine. The settled ACS facts dominate demand: 0% of households have no vehicle, 0% of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail, 0% commute by transit, 0% work from home, mean commute 21.3 minutes, adult share 0.6272, median household income $78,480. Greenlee is one of two Arizona counties with no public transit and has no hospital. Dean Runyan/AOT 2024 visitor spend is $14.9 million for the whole county — a real but small visitor economy, not a tourist-city market — so a resident-only chain would still be the right order of magnitude. 2024 is the year pinned for visitors. Do not treat aggregator Uber/Lyft fare pages as proof of drivers.", "geography": "Clifton is a tiny linear canyon town whose corporate 14.7 sq mi is mostly undeveloped steep land; the inhabited strip is a few miles long. The Morenci mine (Freeport-McMoRan) is the overwhelming economic engine. There is no hospital and no college inside town limits. Local Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general-aviation only; the nearest scheduled commercial service is 71 miles away at SVC. All figures above that are marked sourced were read from the cited pages in this session.", "_superseded": ["clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note"], "costs": "Clifton (Greenlee County) is a small mining town with almost no published local commercial-lease, detailing or insurance quotes; nearest usable figures come from Safford (~40 mi) or statewide Arizona sources. All estimates show the arithmetic and direction of uncertainty. Electricity price and household income were supplied and not re-researched."}, "gaps": ["visitor_air_arrival_share: the nearest commercial airport is 71 miles away, past the 35-mile line at which it stops being this town's airport, so its boardings were NOT divided by this town's visitors -- doing so would have handed a small town a large airport's traffic", "visitor_air_arrival_share: could not be built, so visitors are counted as arriving by road and the visitor stream is a floor", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share: the panel's own draws disagreed by 2.0x (0.1, 0.05, 0.08, 0.1, 0.08), so this component is not settled and the range on rides per day is wide because of it", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 28, "derived": 29, "estimated": 23}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 28, "primary": 20, "secondary": 8, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 52, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. What guards them instead is a plausibility band applied when the record is built, and anything outside it is flagged into `gaps` rather than accepted.", "files": {"sub-est2025.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 7464556, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 2, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv"}, "gaz_place_17.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 148881, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_17.txt"}, "co-est2025-alldata.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 2071735, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 2, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv"}, "faa-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 58201, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": 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"https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_04.txt"}, "noaa\\USC00021849.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 41534, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00021849.csv"}}, "downloads_this_run": 0, "cache_reuses_this_run": 34, "not_bulk_sourced_and_why": "What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 43, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 18, "citations_checked": 17, "citations_passed": 10, "citations_failed": 7, "primary": 2, "secondary": 8, "derived_downgraded": 0, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 0414380 -- Clifton town, Arizona", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 0414380 -- Clifton town", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 04011 -- Greenlee County, Arizona", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid SVC -- Grant County, Silver City NM", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Arizona, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Arizona, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Arizona, June 2026 YTD", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "utility Arizona Public Service Co (#803), Greenlee County County rows, AZ", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "utility Arizona Public Service Co (#803), Greenlee County County rows, AZ", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "climate_station", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "CLIFTON, AZ US (USC00021849), 2.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US0414380, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 0400001 -- Arizona nonmetropolitan 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"read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.aps.com/-/media/APS/APSCOM-PDFs/Utility/Regulatory-and-Legal/Regulatory-Plan-Details-Tariffs/Residential/Service-Plans/R-EV-Overnight.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.aps.com/-/media/APS/APSCOM-PDFs/Utility/Regulatory-and-Legal/Regulatory-Plan-Details-Tariffs/Residential/Service-Plans/Time-of-Use-4pm-7pmWeekdays_R-TOU-E.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.aps.com/-/media/APS/APSCOM-PDFs/Utility/Regulatory-and-Legal/Regulatory-Plan-Details-Tariffs/Residential/Service-Plans/Time-of-Use-4pm-7pmWeekdays_R-TOU-E.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://costtocharge.com/states/arizona", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 429)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.aps.com/en/Residential/Service-Plans/Compare-Service-Plans/EV-Overnight-Charging-11pm-5am-Weekdays", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 12 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://addpc.az.gov/sites/default/files/Final%20Transportation%20Report%20Text_Summer%202025.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a 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"sourced", "url": "https://www.visitgreenleecounty.com/communities/clifton/clifton/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.visitgreenleecounty.com/communities/clifton/clifton/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 13 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.airlineinformation.com/AN/SVC", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://azmag.gov/Portals/0/Maps-Data/Employment/Employer-Highlights/Greenlee-TextOnly.pdf", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.eacourier.com/copper_era/frisco-river-fest-is-part-of-a-bigger-vision-for-clifton/article_3336e615-b6c2-44d1-9c72-c57e67f20fa0.html", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.azleg.gov/ars/28/04038.htm", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 9 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://azcourthelp.org/appeals/clifton-municipal", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the figure is not on the page)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://azdot.gov/mvd/services/professional-services/vehicle-hire-licensing/faq", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 1528917, "output_tokens": 57567, "web_searches": 93, "cost_usd": 4.011, "seconds": 1019.6, "measured_on": "2026-09-08", "note": "measured when the research actually ran on 2026-09-08; rebuilding the pack from the saved answers costs nothing"}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "clifton-az", "searches_charged": 0, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 200, "calls_made": 0, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 0, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 0, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.08, "draws": [0.1, 0.05, 0.08, 0.1, 0.08], "min": 0.05, "max": 0.1, "spread_x": 2.0}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.2, "draws": [0.4, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2], "min": 0.2, "max": 0.4, "spread_x": 2.0}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.0, "draws": [2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0], "min": 2.0, "max": 2.0, "spread_x": 1.0}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [11, 30]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in the required order: (1) Arizona ADOT Vehicle-for-Hire / TNC program — statewide permits only, no county or city trip PDFs; (2) Town of Clifton and Greenlee County — no TNC/for-hire open-data portal or permit trip reports; (3) Airport — Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general aviation with no commercial passenger service and no TNC pickup stats; PHX Sky Harbor TNC totals are Phoenix, ~200 miles away; (4) SEAGO, the regional COG — transit coordination studies document no public transit in Greenlee, not TNC trips, and no household travel survey with paid-ride counts; (5) Local reporting — no news story quoting a taxi or TNC trip total for Clifton or Greenlee. Absence is audit-able; it is not a finding that zero paid rides occur.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 14, "our_range_per_day": [3, 55]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": true, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Clifton, 28 are published figures, 29 are worked out from published figures, and 23 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [33.02957, -109.284039], "geoid": "0414380", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Clifton town", "population": 3752, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Greenlee County", "population": 9312, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 0, "dcfc_ports": 0, "dcfc_list": [], "l2_sites": 0, "l2_ports": 0, "nearest_dcfc": null}, "counts": {"confirmed": 9, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 2, "claims": 11, "records_touched": 9, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "claim_text": "Clifton has zero public DCFC stations within 10 miles.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "rides_reported", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CFT", "claim_text": "(3) Airport — Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general aviation with no commercial passenger service and no TNC pickup stats;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CFT (Greenlee County) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Graham Regional Medical Center, 25 beds) is in Safford, ~40 miles away.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Patients are referred to Mount Graham (explicitly 25-bed Critical Access Hospital).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "trips_per_user_month", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,752 people", "claim_text": "With 0.0 of households lacking a vehicle and a 21.3-minute commute in a town of 3752, even active local users take only a small handful of trips per month.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 3,752; the Census file says Clifton town 3,752 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "6,915 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "SVC boarded only 6915 passengers and is 70.9 miles from Clifton, so almost all air arrivals rent a car rather than take a long taxi or ride-hail.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 6,915; FAA CY2024 enplanements for SVC = 6,915 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,752 people", "claim_text": "A 2.0-night stay in a 14.678-square-mile town of 3752 with 0.0 of households lacking a vehicle means visiting parties take almost no extra local taxi trips.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 3,752; the Census file says Clifton town 3,752 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "3,752 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 3,752 people x 0.6272 adults = 2,353 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 3,752; the Census file says Clifton town 3,752 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CFT", "claim_text": "(3) Airport — Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general aviation with no commercial passenger service and no TNC pickup stats;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CFT (Greenlee County) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "no public DC fast charger here", "claim_text": "Clifton has no public DCFC.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 0 open public DC fast-charging sites (0 fast ports) within 10 miles -- agrees with the note", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code CFT", "claim_text": "Local Greenlee County Airport (CFT) is general-aviation only;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists CFT (Greenlee County) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 7, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 1, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 6, "passes_the_same_test_now": 2, "still_fails_the_same_test": 4, "could_not_be_read_today": 1}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "airport_flights_note", "url": "https://www.airlineinformation.com/AN/SVC", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 5 of the 8 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "generators_note", "url": "https://azmag.gov/Portals/0/Maps-Data/Employment/Employer-Highlights/Greenlee-TextOnly.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "geography_type", "url": "https://www.visitgreenleecounty.com/communities/clifton/clifton/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 1 of the 2 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 1 of the 2 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://www.azleg.gov/ars/28/04038.htm", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 9 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 4 of the 9 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "parking_month", "url": "https://azcourthelp.org/appeals/clifton-municipal", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the figure is not on the page)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the figure is not on the page"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "url": "https://costtocharge.com/states/arizona", "url_today": "blocked -- the host refuses our client", "detail_today": "HTTP 429 on every one of 4 attempts", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 429)", "same_test_now": null, "same_test_detail": "the page could not be read today either"}, {"record": "power_tou_note", "url": "https://www.aps.com/en/Residential/Service-Plans/Compare-Service-Plans/EV-Overnight-Charging-11pm-5am-Weekdays", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 12 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 5 of the 12 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}