{"id": "burlington-vt", "label": "Burlington, VT", "city": "Burlington", "state": "VT", "county": "Chittenden County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 44019, "researched_on": "2026-09-14", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 79, "sourced": 29, "derived": 32, "estimated": 18}, "gaps": 1, "citations": {"checked": 18, "passed": 12, "failed": 6}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 79 numbers behind a season in Burlington, 29 are published figures, 32 are worked out from published figures, and 18 are our own estimates. 42 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "burlington-vt", "city": "Burlington", "state": "VT", "label": "Burlington, VT", "county": "Chittenden County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-14", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 44019, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Burlington city, Vermont.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 5010675 -- Burlington city, Vermont"}, "range": [22009, 88038], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 10.303, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Burlington city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_50.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-08", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 5010675 -- Burlington city"}, "range": [5.2, 20.6], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 4272, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "44,019 residents divided by 10.303 square miles of land = 4,272 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [1708, 10680], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 169115, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Chittenden County, Vermont. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 50007 -- Chittenden County, Vermont"}, "range": [84557, 338230], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Patrick Leahy Burlington International", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid BTV -- Patrick Leahy Burlington International, Burlington VT"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "BTV", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid BTV -- Patrick Leahy Burlington International, Burlington VT"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 670636, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid BTV -- Patrick Leahy Burlington International, Burlington VT"}, "range": [335318, 1341272], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 3.2, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 670,636 against CY2023 649,557, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (670,636 - 649,557) / 649,557 = 3.2%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 4.4, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (44.491927, -73.238882, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (44.471964, -73.153278, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 4.4 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [2.2, 11.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.2444, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Vermont in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Vermont, June 2026"}, "range": [0.122, 0.489], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.2122, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Vermont, June 2026"}, "range": [0.106, 0.424], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.2398, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Vermont, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.12, 0.48], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Green Mountain Power Corp", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Chittenden County, VT -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 3 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Green Mountain Power Corp (#7601), Chittenden County County rows, VT"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "Vermont Electric Cooperative, Inc (35,964 customers); City of Burlington Electric - (VT) (17,861 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Green Mountain Power Corp (#7601), Chittenden County County rows, VT"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.2209, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Green Mountain Power Corp, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Green Mountain Power Corp: residential revenue of $352,142.0 thousand against 1,594,099 MWh sold. (352,142.0 x 1,000 dollars) / (1,594,099 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.2209 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.11, 0.442], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1925, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Green Mountain Power Corp: commercial revenue of $283,180.0 thousand against 1,471,398 MWh sold, so $0.1925 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.096, 0.385], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "BURLINGTON INTL AP, VT US (USW00014742), 4.7 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014742", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014742.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BURLINGTON INTL AP, VT US (USW00014742), 4.7 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 47.6, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00014742: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 47.6F.", "source": null, "range": [32.6, 62.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 20.9, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014742", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014742.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BURLINGTON INTL AP, VT US (USW00014742), 4.7 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [5.9, 35.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 72.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014742", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014742.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BURLINGTON INTL AP, VT US (USW00014742), 4.7 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [57.4, 87.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 37.53, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00014742: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 37.53 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [18.8, 67.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 157.2, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USW00014742: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 157.2 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 87.5, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USW00014742, 4.7 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station BURLINGTON INTL AP, VT US (USW00014742), 4.7 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 87.5 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 175], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 54.7, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014742", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014742.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BURLINGTON INTL AP, VT US (USW00014742), 4.7 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8895, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Burlington, VT, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: total population 44,675, of whom 4,938 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (44,675 - 4,938) / 44,675 = 0.8895.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 71109, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Burlington, VT. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US5010675, B19013_E001"}, "range": [35554, 142218], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.1317, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Burlington, VT with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: 17,504 occupied households, of which 275 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 2,030 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (275 + 2,030) / 17,504 = 0.1317, or 13.2%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.4565, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: 11,121 of 24,362 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.4565, or 45.65%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0531, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: 1,293 of 24,362 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0531, or 5.31%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: 0 of 24,362 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.1898, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: 4,624 of 24,362 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.1898, or 18.98%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 18.7, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Burlington, VT. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US5010675: 368,450 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 19,738 workers who did not work from home = 18.7 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 18.1, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Burlington-South Burlington, VT, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Burlington-South Burlington, VT', 280 people employed in it: median hourly wage $18.10. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 18.10 / 16.96 = 1.067.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 15540 -- Burlington-South Burlington, VT"}, "range": [10.86, 32.58], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 18.1, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Burlington-South Burlington, VT"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Burlington-South Burlington, VT are paid a median of $18.10 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 280 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 107% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 1.067, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Burlington-South Burlington, VT' is $18.10 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 18.10 / 16.96 = 1.067. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 1.167, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $1,649 a month in Burlington, VT (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 1649 / 1413 = 1.167.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 37, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 1.067 = $37.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [15, 93], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 77, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 1.067 = $77.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [31, 193], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 161, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 1.067 = $161.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [65, 404], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 1488, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 1.167 = $1,488 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [595, 4464], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 239, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $893.16 in VT against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 893.16 / 1281.60 = 0.697. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.697 = $239 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [96, 717], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 893.16, "unit": "$/year", "note": "VT average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 203, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$239 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $203. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [81, 609], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.14522, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Green Mountain Power Rate 11 Residential Time-of-Use off-peak energy charge (bundled energy + delivery); midnight–06:00 is always off-peak because peak is only eight weekday hours between 1:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. Daily customer charge ($0.830/day) and percentage bill adjustors sit on top, so delivered cost is a bit higher. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Green Mountain Power Rate 11 tariff", "date": "2025-10", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 0.14522 on the same line as 'kwh'"}, "range": [0.08, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.14522, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "estimated", "why": "GMP Rate 11 is two-period, not three: there is no mid-peak charge, so 06:00–16:00 is billed at the off-peak energy rate except the start of the weekday peak window (eight consecutive hours between 1:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m.). Same bundled energy + delivery line as overnight; customer charge and riders extra. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the digits 0.14522 appear but nowhere near Off Peak / Peak Hours -- not a citation for this figure). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0.1, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening peak electricity", "value": 0.34072, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "GMP Rate 11 on-peak energy charge (bundled energy + delivery) for the eight consecutive weekday hours between 1:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m., which is the tariff window that covers the late-afternoon/evening part of 16:00–midnight; after about 9 p.m. and all weekend hours revert to off-peak. Customer charge and riders extra. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Green Mountain Power Rate 11 tariff", "date": "2025-10", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.24, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Burlington Electric Department’s posted public Level 3 (DC fast) tariff on its ChargePoint “B E Chargers” stations in the city; $0.24/kWh any hour, including Vermont sales tax and city franchise fee; $1/hour occupancy fee after 4 hours is extra. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce. Note: the cited page prints 0.23540 where this record says 0.24 -- close enough to be the same figure rounded or a neighbouring year, but they are not identical.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Burlington Electric Department", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/wp-content/uploads/EV-Charging-Rate.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 0.23540 on the same line as 'level 3' -- the page says 0.23540, the record says 0.24"}, "range": [0.15, 0.65], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "ChargePoint fast charging here", "federal": "the snapshot lists B E CHARGERS BE19 (ChargePoint Network, 1 fast ports, 1.3 mi)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: GMP Rate 11 Residential Time-of-Use (optional vs Rate 1). Also Rate 22 seasonal TOU, Rate 74 TOU EV, Rate 72 off-peak EV, and Rate 63/65 C&I TOU. Small-commercial Rate 6 is flat.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "GMP publishes optional whole-home TOU (Rate 11) a small residential operator can take, plus EV-only TOU and an optional C&I TOU; the small-commercial default (Rate 6) has no time split, and public EV chargers may stay on that flat rate under the EV Charging Equipment Exemption. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Green Mountain Power", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/rates/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 12 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi supply", "value": "Uber and Lyft both operate 24/7, but supply is thin (hour-plus waits, especially late night); small local taxi fleets (Green Cab VT, Queen City Taxi, Small City Taxi, North Cab) fill gaps; BTV has only 59 of 90 taxi queue permits issued", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Operator pages confirm Uber and Lyft in Burlington/Greater Vermont; May 2025 local TV reporting documents unreliable late-night TNC supply at BTV and an under-filled taxi queue, which is the right picture of how thin paid-ride supply is in this city. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.wcax.com/2025/05/13/rideshare-shortages-strand-some-burlington-airport-flyers/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "Yes: Green Mountain Transit runs local buses 7 days a week; core routes roughly 6am–11pm weekdays and Saturdays, but several Burlington routes have no Sunday service and/or no evening service, and 2024–25 cuts dropped late Saturday trips", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "GMT is Vermont’s largest bus system, based in Burlington; weekday evening service exists on main routes but is not 24-hour, Sunday is thinner (45–90 minute headways, several city routes daytime-only), so nights and Sundays still push trips onto cars. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Green Mountain Transit (via Wikipedia compilation of GMT schedules)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Mountain_Transit", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 3.4, "unit": "miles", "basis": "derived", "why": "Nobody publishes a Burlington TNC trip-length table; the city’s own 10.303 sq mi land area plus Uber’s published 4-mile BTV–downtown hop are the strongest local geometry, and the 18.7-minute mean commute says trips here are short.", "math": "If the city were a circle, diameter = 2×sqrt(10.303/π) = 3.62 miles. Intra-city paid hops are shorter than the diameter (~0.6–0.8×), about 2.2–2.9 miles. Uber lists BTV–Burlington as 4 miles and Burlington–South Burlington as 4 miles. Weight ~55% intra-city at 2.5 mi + 25% airport at 4 mi + 20% adjacent towns at 5 mi = 1.375+1.0+1.0 = 3.375 ≈ 3.4. Mean commute 18.7 min at ~12 mph city speed is ~3.7 miles — commutes run longer than a typical paid hop, so 3.4 is slightly conservative. Stepped down from Massachusetts TNC average 6.14 miles (2024) ON this city’s compactness; Cambridge averages 4.2 and Nantucket 2.9.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.48, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A 3.4-mile mean in a 10.3 sq mi walkable city implies a large under-3-mile mass; national all-mode data put 52% of trips under 3 miles, and 13.17% of local households have no vehicle, which keeps short paid hops in the mix.", "math": "BTS/DOE (2021 mobile-device panel): 52% of all U.S. trips were less than three miles. For paid TNC, walking substitutes for the shortest (<1 mile) trips, which pulls the TNC under-3 share down versus all modes. Compact Burlington (diameter ~3.6 miles) and the 13.17% no-vehicle household share pull it back up. Net: 0.52 minus ~0.04 for walk substitution = 0.48. Likely a little high if airport (4 miles) dominates TNC more than expected; a little low if Church Street/campus hops dominate.", "source": null, "range": [0.25, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.08, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Ten miles is already outside this 10.3 sq mi city (Shelburne, Essex, Williston edge, or Stowe/Montpelier); airport is only 4 miles, so the over-10-mile tail is real but thin.", "math": "NextGen NHTS (2022): 73.1% of U.S. on-road passenger trips were 10 miles or less, so 26.9% were over 10 miles. That national figure includes long personal-vehicle trips and is far too high for paid rides in a compact city. Stepped down ON land area 10.303 sq mi and the 3.4-mile mean: a right tail of ski/Montpelier/Montreal runs and some suburban hauls at ~8%. 0.08 is likely conservative if Stowe airport transfers are common; high if almost all TNC stays inside the Burlington–Winooski–South Burlington core.", "source": null, "range": [0.02, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "College nights (UVM, Champlain), Church Street bars, UVMMC shift changes, late BTV arrivals, and GMT’s ~11pm last buses (with no Sunday evening on several city routes) all load this six-hour window.", "math": "21:00–03:00 is 6/24 = 0.25 if demand were flat. TNC is evening-weighted, but 01:00–03:00 is dead except Fri/Sat. UVMMC 12-hour shifts are 7am/7pm (mostly outside this window) with some 10:30pm security/night handoffs inside it. WCAX documents midnight airport TNC waits. GMT last trips ~11pm weekdays/Saturdays and Sunday daytime-only on several Burlington routes, so 21:00–24:00 has no bus on many corridors. Blend: ~0.25 clock share × 0.80 (dead 1–3am weeknights) + college/bar/airport bump ≈ 0.20. Direction: likely a little high on Sunday–Thursday, a little low on Friday–Saturday in term time.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.35], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 1960000, "unit": "visitors/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Calendar year 2024 (most recent complete year the state has published). Hello Burlington does not publish a city visitor count; Vermont’s official 16 million statewide visitors and Chittenden’s 24.5% of visitor spending are the primary figures, stepped down to the city.", "math": "Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing / Tourism Economics: 16 million visitors in 2024. Chittenden County was 24.5% of statewide visitor spending (well over $1 billion). If volume tracked spending 1:1, county-equivalent visitors = 16,000,000 × 0.245 = 3,920,000. The City of Burlington is 44,019/169,115 = 26% of county population but holds Church Street, the waterfront, UVM, and most downtown lodging, so it captures more than its population share; South Burlington still takes airport hotels and the mall. Assign 50% of the county-equivalent to the city: 3,920,000 × 0.50 = 1,960,000. Hello Burlington’s research page currently says “STAY TUNED” with no city count. Direction: spending share may overstate visitor COUNT if Chittenden has higher spend per visitor, or understate if it has more day-trippers; 50% city/county is a judgment call (26% would be ~1.02M, too low for the downtown core; 70% would be ~2.74M).", "source": null, "range": [500000, 5000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.71, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Vermont’s visitor-authority intercept study (Oct 2024–Oct 2025) sampled Burlington sites (Waterfront, Church Street, Hotel Vermont, BTV) and reports 2.71 people both statewide and for Northwest Vermont, the region that contains this city. A party shares one car.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing, Annual Visitor Tracking Report", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/TM/Vermont%20Tourism%20Annual%20Visitor%20Tracking%20Report%20ADA%20Compliant%205.26.26.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 2.71 on the same line as 'parties'"}, "range": [1.5, 4.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 3.8, "unit": "nights", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Same Vermont intercept study, all-visitors average including day-trippers (the definition that matches visitors_year). Hotel stays are 3.2 nights; Northwest Vermont (containing Burlington) is 4.5, so 3.8 is slightly conservative for overnight-heavy visitors but right for a mix that includes same-day regional trips.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing, Annual Visitor Tracking Report", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/TM/Vermont%20Tourism%20Annual%20Visitor%20Tracking%20Report%20ADA%20Compliant%205.26.26.pdf", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 3.8 on the same line as '3.8 nights'"}, "range": [1, 7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No Vermont or Burlington agency publishes a TNC or taxi trip total for this city; the zero is an audited absence, not a claim that zero rides occur.", "math": "Checked the five required places: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Vermont has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. 23 V.S.A. ch. 10 lets DMV inspect a sample of TNC driver records (up to 25 per company per year) but DMV’s site and the statute publish no trip counts. (2) City/county TNC/for-hire reports — Burlington licenses vehicles for hire and collects a monthly fee-per-ride form (Clerk/Treasurer), but the city taxi-licensing page and document center publish no trip totals or open-data ride file. (3) Airport ground transportation — BTV/WCAX say TNC rides rose over 21% vs 2023 and that 59 of 90 taxi queue permits are issued; no absolute pickup count is on btv.aero or in that story. (4) MPO travel survey — CCRPC’s 2018 county survey found 16% of residents used an app-based service in the past month, which is a usage share not a trip count; the 2024 TDM survey likewise has no TNC trip total. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — WCAX (May 2025) and the Nov 2025 convention-center story quote shortages and a 21% airport TNC increase, not a volume. Therefore value = 0 with no convertible unit.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Burlington city is a compact 10.3-square-mile lakeshore strip whose downtown, UVM/hospital campus, both North Ends and South End all sit inside one small footprint; the New York Times notes you can get around by foot and bike, and South Burlington (airport) and Winooski are separate municipalities, not districts of this city.", "math": "Land area 10.303 sq mi gives a circular equivalent radius of sqrt(10.303/pi) = 1.81 miles. Wikipedia describes the built city as a strip about 6 miles north-south along Lake Champlain, so the far edge (New North End) is only about 3 miles from a mid-city centre. That is one-car territory, not a metro a fleet must split. The larger Burlington-South Burlington urbanized area is real but is other towns.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 3.0, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge radius; Wikipedia gives the built-up city's north-south length as about 6 miles along the lake, so the distance from a mid-strip centre to either end is about 3 miles — the figure a fleet uses, not the tighter circular equivalent.", "math": "Wikipedia: the city 'was built on a strip of land extending about 6 miles (9.7 km) south from the mouth of the Winooski River along the lake shore.' Half of that length is 6/2 = 3.0 miles. Circular equivalent from the settled land area is sqrt(10.303/pi) = 1.81 miles, which understates the long axis because the city is a thin lakeshore strip (average width 10.303/6 ≈ 1.7 miles). 3.0 miles is the planning radius; east-west edges are closer. Airport at 4.4 miles is outside the city in South Burlington.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 5.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 5, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Wikipedia lists six named residential neighborhoods plus the Intervale farms; for fleet demand those collapse to five distinct generators: downtown/waterfront, the UVM-hospital-Hill campus, Old North End, New North End, and the South End arts/industrial strip.", "math": "Wikipedia's named areas are Downtown, Hill Section, Intervale, New North End, Old North End, South End, and University District. Drop Intervale (farms, not ride demand). Merge Hill Section with University District because Champlain College, UVM and UVM Medical Center sit in one east-side campus cluster a short walk apart. That leaves 5 meaningfully different demand districts. A splitter could count Hill vs campus as 6; a lumper could fold Old North End into downtown as 4.", "source": null, "range": [3, 8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "District names", "value": "downtown/Church Street/waterfront; UVM-hospital-Hill campus; Old North End; New North End; South End arts/Pine Street", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the five parts of the city that produce different trip patterns: pedestrian retail and events downtown, campus and hospital shift changes on the hill, dense older housing in the Old North End, suburban lakeshore in the New North End, and the Pine Street arts/industrial corridor.", "math": "Mapped from Wikipedia's neighborhood definitions: Downtown is the commercial hub west of South Willard; University District plus Hill Section hold UVM, Champlain College and UVM Medical Center; Old North End is the oldest dense neighborhood north of Pearl; New North End is the northwest suburban extension north of the high school; South End is the once-industrial arts district (Burton, Dealer.com, Art Hop) south of downtown. Intervale omitted (farms).", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport flight pattern", "value": "~34 daily scheduled passenger departures to 18 U.S. cities — a multi-hub spoke, not a two-flight town: NYC (JFK/LGA/EWR), Chicago ORD, Washington DCA/IAD, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Atlanta, plus Breeze leisure (MCO/TPA/RSW/CHS) and seasonal DEN/MSP/IAH", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Patrick Leahy Burlington International (BTV, in South Burlington) is a small regional spoke with five airlines feeding several major hubs plus Florida leisure; that is a different demand pattern from a one-hub puddle-jumper. Daily count is from a schedule compiler; destinations are from the airport's own page. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.directflights.com/BTV: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "UVM Medical Center (Vermont's largest hospital, Level I trauma, 8,200–10,000 employees, 562 licensed beds); University of Vermont (14,425 students, 4,125 staff); Champlain College (3,259 students, Hill Section); Church Street Marketplace; Burton Snowboards HQ and South End arts district", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the named in-city trip magnets: the academic medical center and UVM are the city's (and state's) largest employers, Champlain sits in the Hill Section, Church Street is the pedestrian retail core, and Burton/South End is the industrial-arts generator. GlobalFoundries (~1,800) is in Essex Junction, not this city. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikipedia, Burlington, Vermont (Economy)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burlington,_Vermont", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 13 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital beds", "value": 562, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "UVM Medical Center's own newsroom FY24 stats list 562 licensed acute-care beds at the Burlington flagship — Vermont's only academic medical center and Level I trauma center. This is licensed beds, not a labeled staffed-bed count; the same system's About Us page and the 2024 Vermont Hospital Report Card still say 499-bed, so 562 is the more recent licensed figure and 499 is the conservative alternative. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "University of Vermont Health, Newsroom (FY24 By the Numbers)", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.uvmhealth.org/newsroom", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [450, 650], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 17684, "unit": "students", "basis": "derived", "why": "Sum of the two colleges inside city limits: UVM's own Fall 2025 headcount plus Champlain College's IPEDS 2024-25 total. Saint Michael's is in Colchester and is not counted. Champlain's 1,570 exclusively-online students are in the total but are not in town.", "math": "UVM FY2026 Sourcebook Fall 2025 Headcount Student Total = 14,425 (unduplicated census, including 564 non-degree). Champlain College 2024-25 = 3,259 (2,778 undergraduate + 481 graduate; College Evaluator/Data USA recompile of IPEDS — secondary). 14425 + 3259 = 17684. Subtract Champlain exclusive-online 1,570 and in-person city enrolment is about 16,114. Years are adjacent (UVM Fall 2025, Champlain 2024-25), not identical.", "source": null, "range": [15000, 21000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Events that move demand", "value": "Vermont City Marathon, Memorial Day weekend May (~5,000 athletes); Discover Jazz Festival early June (June 3–7 in 2026); July 3 waterfront fireworks; South End Art Hop, weekend after Labor Day September (100+ sites along Pine Street); Pride Parade September", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the annual events that close streets and fill downtown/South End, each sourced to the organizer or the official downtown calendar — not a tourist-blog dump. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.runvermont.org/blog/runvermont-announces-official-results-of-the-2026-mt-bank-vermont-city-marathon-relay-press-release-excerpt/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Minimum TNC liability limits", "value": "$1,000,000 CSL during a prearranged ride", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Vermont’s TNC statute, not a broker summary: while a driver is engaged in a prearranged ride the required primary auto liability is at least $1,000,000 for death, bodily injury, and property damage (plus $1,000,000 UM/UIM and $5,000 Med Pay). Logged-on-but-not-engaged is only 50/100/25. This is the state TNC rule; ordinary private autos remain 25/50/10. Burlington Code 30-18 still writes $1,000,000 for TNC ride-period coverage and $500,000 for other for-hire vehicles, but 23 V.S.A. § 754’s Burlington grandfather of municipal TNC rules expired 2025-07-01. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://law.justia.com/codes/vermont/title-23/chapter-10/section-750/: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [25000, 2000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC registration and fees", "value": "$125/yr Burlington VFH business license; $0.25 per ride originating or ending in the city/airport; $0.50 per TNC trip that starts and ends in the city", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "City of Burlington Schedule I is the posted vehicle-for-hire fee schedule (Ch. 30 says the annual license fee is the amount in Schedule I). Vermont Title 23 Chapter 10 has no state TNC company or vehicle license and no TNC plate — TNC cars are personal vehicles. Burlington Code 30-6: TNC drivers who do not own the business need no city business license. Separately, Vermont DMV’s current schedule charges $91.00 for a 1-year ICE auto registration (that page includes the $2 Clean Air Fund fee).", "math": null, "source": {"name": "City of Burlington, Schedule I — Vehicle for Hire Licensing Fees", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.burlingtonvt.gov/DocumentCenter/View/9683/Schedule-I---Vehicle-for-Hire-Licensing-Fees-PDF", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 13 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [50, 400], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 84, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Burlington’s traffic-commission ordinance sets the standard weekday monthly permit at the downtown College Street/Lakeview/Westlake garage (the city’s main downtown garage, now branded Downtown Garage) at $84 for five days a week, Monday–Friday. That is the ordinary downtown monthly space, not the $100 seven-day permit, not the $42/$50 six-month introductory permits, and not free Sunday parking. The city’s Parking Rates page lists the same $84 five-day rate. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.codepublishing.com/VT/Burlington/html/BurlingtonAxC/BurlingtonAxC.html: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.628, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.1317 here against 0.0835 nationally = 1.58x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.63x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.31, 1.26], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0723, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Burlington who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.63x: 0.1152 x 0.63 = 0.0723. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0289 to 0.1808, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0289, 0.1808], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.5, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 2.5, 2.7. The MEDIAN, 2.5, is used; the draws spanned 2.3 to 2.7, a factor of 1.17. Among monthly-active residents in a 44,019-person city with 18.7-minute commutes, trip counts stay a small handful, only slightly lifted by the 0.1317 of households with no vehicle.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.3896, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "763,596 boardings across the 2 commercial airports within 35 miles (BTV 670,636 at 4 mi, PBG 92,960 at 16 mi) in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 1,960,000 visitors a year = 0.390. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95.", "source": null, "range": [0.195, 0.584], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "763,596 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 763,596; FAA CY2024 enplanements for BTV+PBG add to 763,596 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.26, 0.32, 0.32, 0.34, 0.24. The MEDIAN, 0.32, is used; the draws spanned 0.24 to 0.34, a factor of 1.42. BTV is only 4.4 miles from the city centre with 670,636 annual enplanements and no rail link, so taxi/ride-hail is the easy hop, but a 3.8-night stay and 2.71-person party still send many air arrivals to rental cars or a local pickup.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "670,636 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 670,636; FAA CY2024 enplanements for BTV = 670,636 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.8, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.55, 0.6, 1, 0.8, 0.8. The MEDIAN, 0.8, is used; the draws spanned 0.55 to 1, a factor of 1.82. On 10.303 square miles with an 18.7-minute mean commute, a 3.8-night visiting party of 2.71 can walk most of the stay and rarely needs a cab beyond airport transfers.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 1.049, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.390 arriving by air x 0.320 of those hiring a ride = 0.249, plus 0.800 trips in town = 1.049 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.64 to 1.40. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 2311, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 44019 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8895 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0723 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.5 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 1960000 (worked out from published figures); Average visiting party size = 2.71 (a published figure); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 1.049 (our estimate). Residents: 44,019 people x 0.8895 adults = 39,155 adults; x 0.0723 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 2,831 people; x 2.5 trips each a month = 7,077 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 233 resident rides a day. Visitors: 1,960,000 a year / 2.71 people in a party = 723,247 visiting parties; x 1.049 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 2,079 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 90% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 2,311 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 1,362 rides a day, and at its own high bound 3,397. The 2,311 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked the five required places: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Vermont has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. 23 V.S.A. ch. 10 lets DMV inspect a sample of TNC driver records (up to 25 per company per year) but DMV’s site and the statute publish no trip counts. (2) City/county TNC/for-hire reports — Burlington licenses vehicles for hire and collects a monthly fee-per-ride form (Clerk/Treasurer), but the city taxi-licensing page and document center publish no trip totals or open-data ride file. (3) Airport ground transportation — BTV/WCAX say TNC rides rose over 21% vs 2023 and that 59 of 90 taxi queue permits are issued; no absolute pickup count is on btv.aero or in that story. (4) MPO travel survey — CCRPC’s 2018 county survey found 16% of residents used an app-based service in the past month, which is a usage share not a trip count; the 2024 TDM survey likewise has no TNC trip total. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — WCAX (May 2025) and the Nov 2025 convention-center story quote shortages and a 21% airport TNC increase, not a volume. Therefore value = 0 with no convertible unit. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [578, 9246], "editable": true, "low": 1362, "high": 3397, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked the five required places: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Vermont has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. 23 V.S.A. ch. 10 lets DMV inspect a sample of TNC driver records (up to 25 per company per year) but DMV’s site and the statute publish no trip counts. (2) City/county TNC/for-hire reports — Burlington licenses vehicles for hire and collects a monthly fee-per-ride form (Clerk/Treasurer), but the city taxi-licensing page and document center publish no trip totals or open-data ride file. (3) Airport ground transportation — BTV/WCAX say TNC rides rose over 21% vs 2023 and that 59 of 90 taxi queue permits are issued; no absolute pickup count is on btv.aero or in that story. (4) MPO travel survey — CCRPC’s 2018 county survey found 16% of residents used an app-based service in the past month, which is a usage share not a trip count; the 2024 TDM survey likewise has no TNC trip total. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — WCAX (May 2025) and the Nov 2025 convention-center story quote shortages and a 21% airport TNC increase, not a volume. Therefore value = 0 with no convertible unit.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 2311, "our_range_per_day": [578, 9246]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "44,019 people", "federal": "the note says 44,019; the Census file says Burlington city 44,019 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Burlington city proper is served by Burlington Electric Department, not GMP; EIA-861 was matched on the county, so the TOU records follow GMP (South Burlington/Colchester/Essex and the rest of Chittenden County) as instructed, while power_dcfc is the in-city public DCFC (BED ChargePoint). GMP Rate 11 now in force is the Oct 1 2025 sheet ($0.14522 off-peak / $0.34072 peak). January 2026 PDFs labeled Oct 1 2026 ($0.15611 / $0.36627) are the rejected 7.5% request — do not use them. PUC approved 5.5% effective Oct 1 2026; revised sheets were not posted as of 2026-09-14, so a season-ahead guess is about $0.153 / $0.359 before riders. Rate 11 is two-period, not three, so power_mid equals off-peak by tariff, not a published shoulder. Energy charges exclude the $0.830/day customer charge and Current Energy/Major Storm percentage adjustors, so all-in kWh is a few percent higher. Nearby Tesla Supercharger in South Burlington (not the city) was $0.41/kWh daytime / $0.27 overnight on 2026-09-13 (https://dcfctracker.com/stations/102482). ChargeHub listed BED Church & Main DCFC at 0.2243 USD/kWh, near the tariff basis rate of $0.23540 rounded to $0.24.", "demand": "Calendar year for visitors is 2024, the latest complete year Tourism Economics published (Dec 11, 2025 release). Hello Burlington’s research page currently has no city visitor count (STAY TUNED). Established local Census facts used in the chain: 44,019 residents, 10.303 sq mi, county 169,115, 13.17% of households with no vehicle, 18.7-minute mean commute, 0.0 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail, 5.31% public transport, 18.98% WFH. Vermont DMV regulates TNCs but does not publish trip counts. GMT June 2026 system PDF: https://ridegmt.com/wp-content/uploads/June-2026_Burlington.pdf. Uber city page (24/7, longer waits): https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/burlington-vt-us/. Lyft Greater Vermont: https://www.lyft.com/rider/cities/greater-vermont-vt. State visitor press release: https://accd.vermont.gov/press-releases/vermont-welcomes-16-million-visitors-tourism-powers-42-billion-economy. Burlington taxi licensing (fee-per-ride forms, no totals): https://www.burlingtonvt.gov/217/Taxi-Licensing.", "geography": "City pack for Burlington, VT only — not the Chittenden County metro. Adjacent South Burlington (airport, malls), Winooski and Essex/Essex Junction (GlobalFoundries ~1,800) are separate municipalities a regional fleet might also serve. BTV destinations also listed on the airport's own page https://btv.aero/where-we-fly/ (American, Breeze, Delta, Sun Country, United). Hospital bed counts conflict across UVMMC properties: About Us and VT Dept of Health 2024 report card say 499-bed (https://www.uvmhealth.org/locations/university-of-vermont-medical-center/about-us and https://www.healthvermont.gov/sites/default/files/document/hospital-information-2024-UVMMC-edited.pdf); newsroom FY24 says 562 licensed acute-care; Wikipedia infobox says 620. Use 562 as the system's latest licensed figure; 499 is the conservative self-description. Champlain 3,259 is IPEDS via College Evaluator (https://www.collegeevaluator.com/institute/champlain-college/enrollment/) because the college Fact Book is a Google Drive PDF; 1,570 of those are exclusively online. Art Hop 2026 dates: https://www.seaba.com/arthopfaq-1 (Sept 11–13). Jazz 2026 dates: https://churchstmarketplace.com/annual-events (June 3–7). July 3 fireworks: same Church Street page. Pride is September, not June (moved in 2012 so students are back).", "costs": "Official legislature.vermont.gov pages for 23 V.S.A. §§ 750 and 361 did not return static text in this session (fetch failed); 23 V.S.A. § 750 is therefore cited from Justia’s 2025 compilation, whose wording matches search extracts of the official statute page. Last amendment of § 750 is 2021, No. 20, § 237; the $1,000,000 ride-period limit has been in the statute since 2018. Vermont ch. 10 is only §§ 750–754 (insurance, driver checks, records, penalties, preemption) — there is no state TNC permit fee. TNC vehicles register as ordinary pleasure cars: Vermont DMV posts Auto (car) 1 Year ICE at $91.00 as of 2026-03-18 (https://dmv.vermont.gov/registrations/fees), which includes the $2 Clean Air Fund fee on top of the $89 statutory base in 23 V.S.A. § 361. Burlington Code 30-6 (opened): TNC drivers do not need a city business license. Burlington 30-18 (opened): TNC ride-period $1,000,000 and $500,000 commercial liability for other for-hire licensees; 23 V.S.A. § 754’s Burlington TNC-ordinance grandfather repealed 2025-07-01, so the state TNC insurance rule controls for TNCs. Schedule I has no printed date; it is the current PDF linked from the city’s Taxi Licensing page and already contains the $0.50 TNC intra-city per-ride line (the 2025 rideshare-fee change). The monthly fee-per-ride form still multiplies by $0.25 and may be stale relative to Schedule I. Parking: Appendix C § 19 also lists $100 for a seven-day monthly permit; burlingtonvt.gov/865/Parking-Rates (opened) lists $100 for a 6-day Mon–Sat permit. Introductory 6-month garage permits of $42 (5-day) / $50 (6-day) exist but convert to the $84 standard. $84 was adopted by Public Works Commission 2024-02-21, effective 2024-03-27, and remains in the compiled Appendix C as retrieved 2026-09."}, "gaps": ["rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 79, "sourced": 29, "derived": 32, "estimated": 18}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 29, "primary": 20, "secondary": 9, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 50, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 42, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 42, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 17, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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"What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 42, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 17, "citations_checked": 18, "citations_passed": 12, "citations_failed": 6, "primary": 3, "secondary": 9, "derived_downgraded": 0, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 5010675 -- Burlington city, Vermont", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 5010675 -- Burlington city", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 50007 -- Chittenden County, Vermont", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid BTV -- Patrick Leahy Burlington International, Burlington VT", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid BTV -- Patrick Leahy Burlington International, Burlington VT", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid BTV -- Patrick Leahy Burlington International, Burlington VT", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": 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"derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 0.14522 on the same line as 'kwh'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the digits 0.14522 appear but nowhere near Off Peak / Peak Hours -- not a citation for this figure)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/wp-content/uploads/EV-Charging-Rate.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 0.23540 on the same line as 'level 3' -- the page says 0.23540, the record says 0.24", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/rates/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 12 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.wcax.com/2025/05/13/rideshare-shortages-strand-some-burlington-airport-flyers/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Mountain_Transit", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/TM/Vermont%20Tourism%20Annual%20Visitor%20Tracking%20Report%20ADA%20Compliant%205.26.26.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "found 2.71 on the same line as 'parties'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/TM/Vermont%20Tourism%20Annual%20Visitor%20Tracking%20Report%20ADA%20Compliant%205.26.26.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "found 3.8 on the same line as '3.8 nights'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.directflights.com/BTV", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burlington,_Vermont", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 13 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.uvmhealth.org/newsroom", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.runvermont.org/blog/runvermont-announces-official-results-of-the-2026-mt-bank-vermont-city-marathon-relay-press-release-excerpt/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/vermont/title-23/chapter-10/section-750/", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.burlingtonvt.gov/DocumentCenter/View/9683/Schedule-I---Vehicle-for-Hire-Licensing-Fees-PDF", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 10 of the 13 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.codepublishing.com/VT/Burlington/html/BurlingtonAxC/BurlingtonAxC.html", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1851.7}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "burlington-vt", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.32, "draws": [0.26, 0.32, 0.32, 0.34, 0.24], "min": 0.24, "max": 0.34, "spread_x": 1.42}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.8, "draws": [0.55, 0.6, 1.0, 0.8, 0.8], "min": 0.55, "max": 1.0, "spread_x": 1.82}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.5, "draws": [2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 2.5, 2.7], "min": 2.3, "max": 2.7, "spread_x": 1.17}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [1362, 3397]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked the five required places: (1) State taxicab/TNC authority — Vermont has no Nevada-style taxicab authority. 23 V.S.A. ch. 10 lets DMV inspect a sample of TNC driver records (up to 25 per company per year) but DMV’s site and the statute publish no trip counts. (2) City/county TNC/for-hire reports — Burlington licenses vehicles for hire and collects a monthly fee-per-ride form (Clerk/Treasurer), but the city taxi-licensing page and document center publish no trip totals or open-data ride file. (3) Airport ground transportation — BTV/WCAX say TNC rides rose over 21% vs 2023 and that 59 of 90 taxi queue permits are issued; no absolute pickup count is on btv.aero or in that story. (4) MPO travel survey — CCRPC’s 2018 county survey found 16% of residents used an app-based service in the past month, which is a usage share not a trip count; the 2024 TDM survey likewise has no TNC trip total. (5) Local reporting quoting any of the above — WCAX (May 2025) and the Nov 2025 convention-center story quote shortages and a 21% airport TNC increase, not a volume. Therefore value = 0 with no convertible unit.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 2311, "our_range_per_day": [578, 9246]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 79 numbers behind a season in Burlington, 29 are published figures, 32 are worked out from published figures, and 18 are our own estimates. 42 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [44.491927, -73.238882], "geoid": "5010675", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Burlington city", "population": 44019, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Chittenden County", "population": 169115, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 18, "dcfc_ports": 40, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "B E CHARGERS BE19", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.3, "open_date": "2025-03-20"}, {"name": "B E CHARGERS BE20", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.5, "open_date": "2026-04-17"}, {"name": "B E CHARGERS BE21", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.5, "open_date": "2026-05-08"}, {"name": "B E CHARGERS BE06", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.6, "open_date": "2024-12-12"}, {"name": "B E CHARGERS BE01", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.7, "open_date": "2026-07-29"}, {"name": "B E CHARGERS BE05", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.3, "open_date": "2023-07-14"}, {"name": "Burlington Hyundai", "network": "Blink Network", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.9, "open_date": "2023-03-29"}, {"name": "GMP Colchester", "network": "VIALYNK", "ports": 3, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 3.2, "open_date": "2025-03-28"}, {"name": "SUNCOMMON FAST CHARGER 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 3.3, "open_date": "2022-01-14"}, {"name": "SUNCOMMON FAST CHARGER 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 3.3, "open_date": "2022-01-15"}, {"name": "South Burlington, VT - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 3.6, "open_date": "2015-11-04"}, {"name": "Green Mountain Power - IDX Dr", "network": "FLO", "ports": 2, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 4.3, "open_date": "2024-01-27"}, {"name": "South Burlington - KBTV", "network": "Non-Networked", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 4.5, "open_date": "2020-12-04"}, {"name": "Key Motors of South Burlington", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772 J1772COMBO", "miles": 4.7, "open_date": "2022-12-07"}, {"name": "BERLIN CITY KIA STATION 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 6.5, "open_date": "2024-09-11"}, {"name": "Green Mountain Power - Williston Hannaford", "network": "FLO", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 6.9, "open_date": "2024-09-21"}, {"name": "Williston, VT - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 7.0, "open_date": "2021-04-23"}, {"name": "Essex Outlet Center", "network": "VIALYNK", "ports": 2, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772 J1772COMBO", "miles": 7.8, "open_date": "2024-05-02"}], "l2_sites": 155, "l2_ports": 326, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "B E CHARGERS BE19", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.3, "city": "Burlington", "state": "VT"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 7, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 4, "claims": 11, "records_touched": 9, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 42}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "ChargePoint fast charging here", "claim_text": "Burlington Electric Department’s posted public Level 3 (DC fast) tariff on its ChargePoint “B E Chargers” stations in the city;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists B E CHARGERS BE19 (ChargePoint Network, 1 fast ports, 1.3 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "UVM Medical Center (Vermont's largest hospital, Level I trauma, 8,200–10,000 employees, 562 licensed beds);", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "UVM Medical Center's own newsroom FY24 stats list 562 licensed acute-care beds at the Burlington flagship — Vermont's only academic medical center and Level I trauma center.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "the same system's About Us page and the 2024 Vermont Hospital Report Card still say 499-bed, so 562 is the more recent licensed figure and 499 is the conservative alternative.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "763,596 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "763,596 boardings across the 2 commercial airports within 35 miles (BTV 670,636 at 4 mi, PBG 92,960 at 16 mi) in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 1,960,000 visitors a year = 0.390.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 763,596; FAA CY2024 enplanements for BTV+PBG add to 763,596 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "670,636 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "BTV is only 4.4 miles from the city centre with 670,636 annual enplanements and no rail link, so taxi/ride-hail is the easy hop, but a 3.8-night stay and 2.71-person party still send many air arrivals to rental cars or a local pickup.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 670,636; FAA CY2024 enplanements for BTV = 670,636 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "44,019 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 44,019 people x 0.8895 adults = 39,155 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 44,019; the Census file says Burlington city 44,019 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "ChargePoint fast charging here", "claim_text": "EIA-861 was matched on the county, so the TOU records follow GMP (South Burlington/Colchester/Essex and the rest of Chittenden County) as instructed, while power_dcfc is the in-city public DCFC (BED ChargePoint).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists B E CHARGERS BE19 (ChargePoint Network, 1 fast ports, 1.3 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Nearby Tesla Supercharger in South Burlington (not the city) was $0.41/kWh daytime / $0.27 overnight on 2026-09-13 (https://dcfctracker.com/stations/102482).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists South Burlington, VT - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 3.6 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "44,019 people", "claim_text": "Established local Census facts used in the chain: 44,019 residents, 10.303 sq mi, county 169,115, 13.17% of households with no vehicle, 18.7-minute mean commute, 0.0 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail, 5.31% public transport, 18.98% WFH.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 44,019; the Census file says Burlington city 44,019 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Hospital bed counts conflict across UVMMC properties: About Us and VT Dept of Health 2024 report card say 499-bed (https://www.uvmhealth.org/locations/university-of-vermont-medical-center/about-us and https://www.healthvermont.gov/sites/default/files/document/hospital-information-2024-UVMMC-edited.p", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 6, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 1, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 5, "passes_the_same_test_now": 2, "still_fails_the_same_test": 3, "could_not_be_read_today": 1}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "airport_flights_note", "url": "https://www.directflights.com/BTV", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "events_note", "url": "https://www.runvermont.org/blog/runvermont-announces-official-results-of-the-2026-mt-bank-vermont-city-marathon-relay-press-release-excerpt/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://law.justia.com/codes/vermont/title-23/chapter-10/section-750/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 3 of the 3 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "parking_month", "url": "https://www.codepublishing.com/VT/Burlington/html/BurlingtonAxC/BurlingtonAxC.html", "url_today": "blocked -- the host refuses our client", "detail_today": "HTTP 403 on every one of 4 attempts", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": null, "same_test_detail": "the page could not be read today either"}, {"record": "power_mid", "url": "https://greenmountainpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Rate-11-Residential-Time-of-Use-Oct-1-2025.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the digits 0.14522 appear but nowhere near Off Peak / Peak Hours -- not a citation for this figure)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 0.14522 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}, {"record": "ridehail_present", "url": "https://www.wcax.com/2025/05/13/rideshare-shortages-strand-some-burlington-airport-flyers/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 7 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}