{"id": "buffalo-ny", "label": "Buffalo, NY", "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "county": "Erie County", "geography": "multi-district metro", "population": 274613, "researched_on": "2026-09-13", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 77, "sourced": 27, "derived": 32, "estimated": 18}, "gaps": 2, "citations": {"checked": 17, "passed": 11, "failed": 6}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 77 numbers behind a season in Buffalo, 27 are published figures, 32 are worked out from published figures, and 18 are our own estimates. 39 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "buffalo-ny", "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "label": "Buffalo, NY", "county": "Erie County", "geography_type": "multi-district metro", "researched_on": "2026-09-13", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 274613, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Buffalo city, New York.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 3611000 -- Buffalo city, New York"}, "range": [137306, 549226], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 40.376, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Buffalo city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_36.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 3611000 -- Buffalo city"}, "range": [20.2, 80.8], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 6801, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "274,613 residents divided by 40.376 square miles of land = 6,801 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [2720, 17002], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 946741, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Erie County, New York. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 36029 -- Erie County, New York"}, "range": [473370, 1893482], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Buffalo Niagara International", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid BUF -- Buffalo Niagara International, Buffalo NY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "BUF", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid BUF -- Buffalo Niagara International, Buffalo NY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 2499295, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid BUF -- Buffalo Niagara International, Buffalo NY"}, "range": [1249647, 4998590], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 9.0, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 2,499,295 against CY2023 2,291,995, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (2,499,295 - 2,291,995) / 2,291,995 = 9.0%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 7.3, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (42.892492, -78.859686, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (42.940436, -78.730573, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 7.3 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [3.7, 18.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.2949, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across New York in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "New York, June 2026"}, "range": [0.147, 0.59], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.2356, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "New York, June 2026"}, "range": [0.118, 0.471], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.2926, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "New York, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.146, 0.585], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_candidates", "label": "Utilities that serve this county", "value": "Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. (1,430,208 customers in NY); New York State Elec & Gas Corp (735,192 customers in NY); Village of Arcade - (NY) (4,337 customers in NY); Village of Springville - (NY) (2,739 customers in NY); Village of Akron - (NY) (1,686 customers in NY)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every utility filing an EIA-861 service territory for Erie County. More than one is large enough here that the county file cannot say which one this town is on, so it does not say.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024 service territory", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Erie County, NY"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 3 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014733", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014733.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 48.8, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00014733: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 48.8F.", "source": null, "range": [33.8, 63.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 25.5, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "January is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014733", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014733.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [10.5, 40.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 71.7, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014733", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014733.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [56.7, 86.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 40.68, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USW00014733: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 40.68 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [20.3, 73.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 165.8, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USW00014733: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 165.8 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 95.4, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USW00014733, 7.3 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 95.4 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 191], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 59.5, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USW00014733", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014733.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.7768, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Buffalo, NY, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: total population 276,854, of whom 61,801 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (276,854 - 61,801) / 276,854 = 0.7768.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 50041, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Buffalo, NY. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US3611000, B19013_E001"}, "range": [25020, 100082], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.2259, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Buffalo, NY with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: 119,630 occupied households, of which 3,946 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 23,084 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (3,946 + 23,084) / 119,630 = 0.2259, or 22.6%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.628, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: 75,823 of 120,738 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.6280, or 62.80%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0812, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: 9,804 of 120,738 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0812, or 8.12%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0095, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: 1,148 of 120,738 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0095, or 0.95%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.1129, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: 13,628 of 120,738 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.1129, or 11.29%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 19.9, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Buffalo, NY. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US3611000: 2,129,310 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 107,110 workers who did not work from home = 19.9 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 16.13, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY', 1,500 people employed in it: median hourly wage $16.13. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 16.13 / 16.96 = 0.951.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 15380 -- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY"}, "range": [9.68, 29.03], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 16.13, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY are paid a median of $16.13 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 1,500 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 95% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 0.951, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY' is $16.13 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 16.13 / 16.96 = 0.951. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.74, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $1,046 a month in Buffalo, NY (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 1046 / 1413 = 0.740.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 33, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 0.951 = $33.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [13, 83], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 69, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 0.951 = $69.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [28, 172], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 144, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 0.951 = $144.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [58, 360], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 944, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.740 = $944 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [378, 2832], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 469, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,752.55 in NY against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1752.55 / 1281.60 = 1.367. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 1.367 = $469 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [188, 1407], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1752.55, "unit": "$/year", "note": "NY average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 399, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$469 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $399. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [160, 1197], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_utility", "theme": "power", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "National Grid (Niagara Mohawk Power Corp.)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "NYSERDA’s National Grid profile names Niagara Mohawk as the upstate electric utility and lists Buffalo in its service area; National Grid’s own storm bulletin confirms it wires the City of Buffalo in Erie County. Legal filings are under Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation d/b/a National Grid, PSC No. 220.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NYSERDA GridConnect, National Grid profile", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://gridconnect.nyserda.ny.gov/nygc-home/utility-profiles-information/national-grid/", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the page carries 5 of the 6 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": ["National Grid (Niagara Mohawk)", "NYSEG", "National Fuel (gas only)"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.116, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "All-in SC-1 VTOU off-peak (11pm–7am, which covers midnight–06:00) for Buffalo Load Zone A: VTOU off-peak delivery plus 12-month trailing off-peak supply (ESCOST+ESRM+CESS+MFC) plus typical delivery riders. Excludes the $19+$4.42 monthly customer charges, gross-receipts tax, and the Legacy Transition Charge. This is the residential Voluntary Time-of-Use tariff a small operator can actually take; it is not the EIA state average.", "math": "Off-peak delivery 1.299¢/kWh ($0.01299) from National Grid’s SC-1 VTOU schedule + Zone A SC-1 VTOU 12-month trailing off-peak supply $0.08937 (includes ESCOST, ESRM, CESS, MFC; excludes tax; year ending 2026-06-30) + delivery riders $0.01356 (ODS-9 SC1 line 0.00114−0.00002+0.00147+0.00087+0.000251+0.00671+0.00016 = $0.010581, plus SBC-29 SC1 $0.002981). 0.01299+0.08937+0.01356 = $0.11592, rounded to $0.116/kWh. Likely slightly high if LTC is a residential credit; slightly low if later monthly ODS riders moved. Super-peak does not apply overnight. Fixed monthly charges are omitted so a high-kWh charging load is not overstated on a per-kWh basis.", "source": null, "range": [0.06, 0.22], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.255, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "National Grid SC-1 VTOU has no mid-peak delivery band: 06:00–16:00 is off-peak only until 7am, then on-peak (7am–11pm) for both delivery and supply. This figure is the all-in on-peak rate, so it is a little high for the 06:00–07:00 hour and right for the rest of the window. Summer weekdays 2pm–4pm also pick up super-peak supply (not in this number).", "math": "On-peak/super-peak delivery 12.633¢/kWh ($0.12633) + Zone A SC-1 VTOU 12-month trailing on-peak supply $0.11543 + the same $0.01356 riders as overnight. 0.12633+0.11543+0.01356 = $0.25532, rounded to $0.255/kWh. Same omissions as overnight (customer charges, GRT, LTC). This is not a separate tariff period from evening — the utility simply does not split 06:00–16:00 from 16:00–24:00 on delivery.", "source": null, "range": [0.14, 0.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.255, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Same SC-1 VTOU on-peak all-in as daytime: delivery is one 7am–11pm rate. 16:00–23:00 is on-peak; 23:00–24:00 flips back to off-peak. The only extra evening cost is commodity super-peak, 2pm–6pm on non-holiday weekdays in June–August, which would push those four hours toward ~$0.38/kWh all-in and is not used here because it is not the year-round evening rate.", "math": "Same stack as power_mid: $0.12633 delivery + $0.11543 trailing on-peak supply + $0.01356 riders = $0.255/kWh. Super-peak check (not used as the posted value): $0.12633 + $0.24264 trailing super-peak supply + $0.01356 = $0.383/kWh, June–August weekdays 2–6pm only. Using $0.255 is the conservative year-round evening figure; summer late-afternoon supply is higher.", "source": null, "range": [0.14, 0.45], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.47, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "NYPA’s EVolve NY network publishes a flat upstate public DCFC price of $0.47/kWh plus tax, with no session fee, and lists Buffalo among the urban hub cities. This is the operator’s own rate, not a site scrape. A Tesla Supercharger at 4455 Transit Road (14221, just east of the city line) was $0.42/kWh member peak / $0.32 overnight on 2026-09-12; Electrify America at 2500 Walden Ave, Cheektowaga was $0.60/kWh the same week.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "New York Power Authority, EVolve NY", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://evolveny.nypa.gov/", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.25, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "unconfirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "EVolve NY fast charging here", "federal": "the note names EVolve NY, but the snapshot has no EVolve NY fast-charging site within 10 miles; the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 39 open public DC fast-charging sites (113 fast ports) within 10 miles", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: SC-1 VTOU (residential; off-peak 11pm–7am). Small commercial: SC-2 Non-Demand VTOU exists. One-year stay.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "National Grid offers a voluntary residential time-of-use rate, SC-1 VTOU, specifically marketed for EV charging overnight 11pm–7am, with on-peak 7am–11pm and a summer weekday super-peak for supply only. Load-profile tables also list SC-2 Non-Demand VTOU for small general service. Enrollment is a one-year contract and needs a TOU meter ($4.42/month incremental charge on the residential schedule). Charge Smart NY is a $25/month rebate on flat SC-1, not a TOU price. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://nationalgridus.com/time-of-use: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure. The cited page has MOVED: re-checked 2026-09-24, https://nationalgridus.com/time-of-use now redirects to https://www.nationalgridus.com/Upstate-NY-Home/Voluntary-Time-of-Use-Rate/Voluntary-Time-of-Use-Rate, which is the same document at a new address. The figure is unchanged and the citation is kept.", "source": null, "range": ["Yes: SC-1 VTOU", "No TOU", "SC-1C only"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi services on the ground", "value": "Uber and Lyft run 24/7 citywide; local metered taxis still operate (airport stands, Liberty Yellow, Cold Spring). App coverage is consistent downtown but thinner by neighborhood and at night — download both apps.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "NYS DMV licenses only Uber and Lyft as TNCs outside NYC; Uber’s own Buffalo page confirms 24/7 requesting; a 2026 local transport guide is the clearest public statement that those two apps are the only rideshare platforms with consistent coverage and that waits vary by neighborhood. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://thingstodoinbuffalo.com/transportation/taxi-rideshare/: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus and rail evenings and weekends", "value": "Yes — NFTA Metro bus plus Metro Rail, year-round, seven days a week, up to 19 hours. Rail weekdays about 5:30am–1am; frequent/standard buses run Saturday; many Sunday routes end around 10pm. Evening service exists, but it thins late at night and on Sundays.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "NFTA is the regional operator for Buffalo; its adopted service-span standard is the primary statement that this is not a no-evening-bus town, which matters because leftover late trips then fall on cars and ride-hail. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NFTA Metro Service Design Guidelines", "date": "2021-03", "url": "https://elements.nfta.com/media/k2yhjha4/metro_service_guidelines.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the page carries 12 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 4.8, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes a Buffalo TNC mean trip length; the city’s own 40.376 sq mi land area, 19.9-minute mean commute, and Uber’s listed Buffalo routes are the local facts to reason from.", "math": "Land area 40.376 sq mi gives an equivalent-circle radius of sqrt(40.376/π)≈3.59 miles, so a typical intra-city hop is about 3.5–4 miles. The mean one-way commute is 19.9 minutes; at ~20 mph that is ~6.6 miles — a ceiling for resident work trips, not the mix of bar, errand, hospital, and airport rides. Uber’s Buffalo taxi page prices a typical ride at 13 minutes (~4.3 miles at 20 mph) and lists popular routes of 9 miles (Buffalo–Cheektowaga/airport area) and 13 miles (Buffalo–Amherst). High no-vehicle share (0.2259 of households) plus dense downtown/Allentown/Elmwood trips pull the mean down; BUF airport and UB-Amherst pull it up. Blend: 0.82×3.6 + 0.13×9 + 0.05×13 = 2.95+1.17+0.65 = 4.77, rounded to 4.8. Likely a bit low if many visitors take the ~20-mile Niagara Falls run.", "source": null, "range": [2, 12], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.42, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Paid trips in a 40 sq mi city with a large no-car household share are short-heavy; this is the under-3-mile mass consistent with a ~4.8-mile mean.", "math": "National NextGen NHTS (not TNC-specific): 73.1% of all on-road trips are 10 miles or less — we step down from that national figure onto this city’s compact geography and 4.8-mile estimated mean. A right-skewed mix that averages 4.8 miles: 0.42×2.2 + 0.44×5.0 + 0.14×12 = 0.92+2.20+1.68 = 4.80. The 0.2259 no-vehicle household share and downtown nightlife push the under-3-mile share up; airport and Amherst runs push it down.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 0.65], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.14, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The over-10-mile tail in this compact city is mostly airport, UB-Amherst, and Niagara Falls corridor trips, not a national long-commute pattern.", "math": "Nationally 26.9% of all trips exceed 10 miles (100%−73.1%). We step down hard from that onto Buffalo’s 40.376 sq mi and 19.9-minute commute: most paid rides stay inside the city. Uber lists Buffalo–Amherst at 13 miles and Buffalo–Cheektowaga at 9 miles (airport-adjacent, borderline). Assign ~9 points to Amherst/airport-over-10 and ~5 points to Niagara Falls (~20 mi) and other long runs = 0.14. Same 4.8-mile mix as trip_mi_short_share. Conservative if visitor Falls trips are common; Uber/Lyft often will not cross into Canada, which caps the longest international leg.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand between 9pm and 3am", "value": 0.18, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Buffalo has real late demand (Chippewa, hospital shifts, colleges, Sabres) but also evening buses and rail until about 1am weekdays, so this is not a no-night-transit town.", "math": "21:00–03:00 is 6/24=0.25 if demand were flat; ride-hail is night-heavy relative to all travel but still majority-daytime. Local anchors: Chippewa entertainment district and post-Sabres waits (local transport guide); Buffalo General Medical Center is a commonly requested Uber destination (hospital shift changes); UB, Buffalo State, and Canisius night trips; 0.2259 of households have no vehicle, so late trips that miss the bus become paid rides. Offset: NFTA rail weekdays ~5:30am–1:00am and frequent/standard buses into the evening, Sunday many routes ending ~10pm — some night demand stays on transit. Use 0.18, below a nightlife-tourist city, above a bedroom suburb. Likely low on Friday/Saturday and winter-storm nights; likely high if applied to a quiet Tuesday.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.32], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 7600000, "unit": "visitors/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Calendar year 2025 — the most recent complete year Visit Buffalo has published. Longwoods International’s visitor profile, cited by the destination authority: 7.6 million domestic visitors to Erie County (not the city line alone, and not including Canadians). This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Visit Buffalo", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://visitbuffalo.com/tourism-spending-in-erie-county-set-another-new-high-in-2025/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [2000000, 15000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 3.1, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Only published party-size figure from a Visit Buffalo Niagara–commissioned Longwoods study. It is overnight Canadian shoppers surveyed in February 2012, not all 2025 domestic visitors — family shopping parties run larger than a mixed leisure/business party, so this is likely high for today’s mix. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://longwoods-intl.com/visitor-travel-research/visit-buffalo-niagara-and-niagara-tourism-convention-corporation-release-canadian-shopping-research/: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 4.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights a visiting party stays", "value": 2.3, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Same Visit Buffalo Niagara / Longwoods overnight figure (February 2012 Canadian shoppers). This is nights per overnight party, not an average across day-trippers — a large share of the 7.6 million 2025 domestic visitors are day trips that stay 0 nights. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://longwoods-intl.com/visitor-travel-research/visit-buffalo-niagara-and-niagara-tourism-convention-corporation-release-canadian-shopping-research/: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count (independent cross-check)", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No public taxi or TNC trip total for Buffalo or Erie County turned up after checking the five required source classes. Zero here means “no published count,” not “no rides.”", "math": "Checked in this order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: NYS DMV licenses Uber and Lyft outside NYC and states that TNC records exist for audits; it publishes no Buffalo or Erie County trip counts. NYC TLC trip files are NYC-only. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports and OpenData Buffalo: transportation catalog shows AADT traffic counts and building permits; no taxi/TNC trip dataset. NYS TNC Act also bars local TNC trip taxes, so localities have little reason to tabulate trips. (3) Airport ground transportation: Uber operates at BUF with a designated rideshare pickup, and NFTA reports airport passenger volume, but no published TNC pickup/dropoff count was found on NFTA or airport pages opened this session. (4) MPO travel survey: GBNRTC/NFTA 2024 onboard survey reports ~62,000 average weekday transit boardings and that 53% of riders would take an Uber or taxi if transit vanished — a substitution share, not a TNC trip census. (5) Local reporting: 2017 launch stories and destination lists; no quoted official trip total. Unlike Nevada’s Taxicab Authority, New York does not publish upstate TNC trip totals.", "source": null, "range": [0, 20000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "multi-district metro", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Buffalo is officially five sectors and 35 neighborhoods with distinct downtown/waterfront, medical-campus, Elmwood, East Side, South Buffalo, West Side and North Buffalo demand; BUF sits 7.3 miles outside the city, so one car does not cover the town.", "math": "Not a single-radius town: Be in Buffalo and the city's own neighborhood list treat Canalside/CBD, BNMC, Elmwood Village, North Buffalo/Hertel, East Side, South Buffalo and the West Side as separate places to live and work. Wikipedia: five sectors of 35 neighborhoods. A fleet must choose among those clusters.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 3.6, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge mileage; this is the equivalent-circle radius of the city's 40.376 sq mi land area, a fair typical cover distance for a compact Great Lakes grid city.", "math": "r = sqrt(land area / pi) = sqrt(40.376 / 3.14159) = sqrt(12.852) = 3.585, rounded to 3.6. Buffalo is elongated north–south along the lake, so the far built-up edge at University Heights is farther than this (about 5–6 mi from downtown); 3.6 is the typical, not the maximum, radius.", "source": null, "range": [2.5, 7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 7, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Fleet-relevant clusters, not the city's 35 named neighborhoods: downtown/arena, medical campus, Elmwood/Allentown, North Buffalo/UB South, East Side/ECMC, South Buffalo/Mercy, and the West Side each pull different shift, nightlife and event demand.", "math": "Wikipedia's five official sectors and 35 neighborhoods collapse into seven demand districts a car would actually be stationed in. Counting all 35 would overstate how many bases a fleet needs; counting only downtown would understate BNMC night shifts, Elmwood nightlife, East Side hospital traffic and South Buffalo.", "source": null, "range": [5, 12], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["geography_type"]}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named districts", "value": "downtown/Canalside/arena; Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus; Allentown and Elmwood Village; North Buffalo/Hertel/University Heights; East Side/ECMC/Broadway-Fillmore; South Buffalo/Mercy; West Side", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the named places a local relocation guide treats as separate neighborhoods, which is the layout a fleet has to choose among. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Be in Buffalo", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://beinbuffalo.com/live/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the page carries 13 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "redirected_from": "https://beinbuffalo.com/live"}, "range": [1, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport flight pattern", "value": "Up to 100 nonstop flights/day to 31 destinations (NYC, Chicago, Atlanta, Florida, West Coast); spoke airport, not a connecting hub", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "NFTA's own BUF site is the operator figure for scheduled service; this is a large spoke, not a two-flights-to-one-hub town. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.buffaloairport.com/airport-info/about-the-airport: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 11 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [1, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named demand generators", "value": "ECMC (573 inpatient beds, Level 1 trauma); Buffalo General/GVI (526 beds on BNMC); Mercy (387 beds, South Buffalo); Buffalo State 6,095; D'Youville 2,893; Canisius 2,451; UB 30,400 mostly Amherst North Campus with South and Downtown in the city; KeyBank Center ~140 events/yr (Sabres)", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The hospitals, city-sited colleges and the downtown arena are the named generators a fleet actually sees; UB's headcount is listed but most of it sits in Amherst, not in the city.", "math": "Beds from each hospital's own page (573 / 526 / 387). City four-years: Buffalo State 6,095 + D'Youville 2,893 + Canisius 2,451. UB 30,400 is the university's official fall 2025 total; North Campus is in Amherst. KeyBank Center hosted about 140 events in the past year per the Sabres. Conservative on colleges: Trocaire, ECC City Campus and Bryant & Stratton are omitted.", "source": null, "range": [1, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital beds", "value": 573, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "ECMC is the largest hospital in the city by its own inpatient-bed count; Buffalo General is 526 and Mercy is 387. ECMC says inpatient beds, not staffed beds. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Erie County Medical Center", "date": "2026-03", "url": "https://www.ecmc.edu/andrew-l-davis-mba-named-ecmc-president-and-chief-executive-officer/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [400, 700], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "City college enrollment", "value": 11439, "unit": "students", "basis": "derived", "why": "Sum of the three four-year campuses that sit inside the city limits. UB's 30,400 is mostly the Amherst North Campus, so including it would count suburban students as city demand.", "math": "Buffalo State Fall 2025 6,095 + D'Youville Fall 2025 2,893 + Canisius Fall 2024 2,451 = 11,439. Likely conservative: omits UB South Campus (University Heights) and Downtown medical campus, Trocaire, ECC City Campus and Bryant & Stratton. Add UB's 30,400 if the editor wants the flagship's full headcount (range high).", "source": null, "range": [10000, 45000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand-moving events", "value": "Dyngus Day (Easter Monday, typically April, Broadway-Fillmore); Allentown Art Festival (2nd weekend of June); Taste of Buffalo (July, ~450,000); National Buffalo Wing Festival (Labor Day weekend, ~80,000/yr); KeyBank Center ~140 events/yr", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "These are the annual dates that actually fill downtown, Allentown and Polonia; Bills games are in Orchard Park, outside the city, so they are omitted. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Wikipedia: List of festivals in Buffalo, New York / Taste of Buffalo / National Buffalo Wing Festival; NHL Sabres", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_festivals_in_Buffalo,_New_York", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [1, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Minimum TNC liability limits", "value": "$1,250,000 CSL on a prearranged trip; 75/150/25 while logged on", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "New York DFS, the state insurance regulator, restates VTL Article 44-B limits that apply to TNC vehicles in Buffalo (outside NYC); traditional taxi/livery for-hire cover is a lower VTL §370 schedule and is a different class.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NYS Department of Financial Services", "date": "2017-06", "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps_and_licensing/property_insurers/trans_network_co_ride_sharing_faqs", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the page carries 4 of the 4 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [75000, 1500000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration", "value": "TNC vehicles keep ordinary NY passenger plates (no special for-hire registration). Buffalo taxi license $115; livery $75.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "NY DMV states TNC cars use regular passenger registration, not for-hire plates; the dollar fees are Buffalo’s own 2026 taxi/livery license schedule for the separate for-hire class. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.buffalony.gov/DocumentCenter/View/11873/taxi-livery-application-_-requirements-2026: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 12 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 160, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Posted standard monthly pass at Main Place Parking Ramp, a downtown Buffalo garage; the city’s BCAR pages confirm monthly permits exist but do not list a crawlable dollar rate, so this is an operator’s own downtown figure and likely toward the high side of unreserved monthly parking. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Main Place Liberty Group / Pearl Street Parking Associates", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.mainliberty.com/parking", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [50, 300], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-13", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 3.135, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.2259 here against 0.0835 nationally = 2.70x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00950 here against 0.00261 nationally = 3.63x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 3.14x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [1.57, 6.27], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.3612, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Buffalo who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 3.14x: 0.1152 x 3.14 = 0.3612. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.1445 to 0.6000, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.1445, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.7, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.5, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 3.3. The MEDIAN, 2.7, is used; the draws spanned 2.5 to 3.3, a factor of 1.32. Among monthly-active residents, a 19.9-minute commute keeps this from being a work-trip market, so even with 0.2259 of households having no vehicle the typical active user still takes only a small handful of trips.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.3366, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "2,558,414 boardings across the 2 commercial airports within 35 miles (BUF 2,499,295 at 7 mi, IAG 59,119 at 16 mi) in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 7,600,000 visitors a year = 0.337. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95.", "source": null, "range": [0.168, 0.505], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "2,558,414 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 2,558,414; FAA CY2024 enplanements for BUF = 2,499,295 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.26, 0.32, 0.32, 0.25, 0.34. The MEDIAN, 0.32, is used; the draws spanned 0.25 to 0.34, a factor of 1.36. BUF is only 7.3 miles from the centre with no rail link, so ride-hail is the default short transfer, but a 3.1-person party on a 2.3-night stay still often rents or gets picked up at this 2.5M-enplanement regional airport.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.8, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.8, 0.6, 1.1, 0.6, 1.1. The MEDIAN, 0.8, is used; the draws spanned 0.6 to 1.1, a factor of 1.83. A 2.3-night stay in a 40.4-square-mile city with a 19.9-minute mean commute is compact enough that most parties add well under one extra taxi or ride-hail after the airport legs.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 1.015, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.337 arriving by air x 0.320 of those hiring a ride = 0.215, plus 0.800 trips in town = 1.015 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.68 to 1.44. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 13661, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 274613 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.7768 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.3612 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.7 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 7600000 (a published figure); Average visiting party size = 3.1 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 1.015 (our estimate). Residents: 274,613 people x 0.7768 adults = 213,319 adults; x 0.3612 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 77,051 people; x 2.7 trips each a month = 208,038 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 6,843 resident rides a day. Visitors: 7,600,000 a year / 3.1 people in a party = 2,451,613 visiting parties; x 1.015 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 6,817 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Total: 13,661 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 7,129 rides a day, and at its own high bound 23,586. The 13,661 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in this order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: NYS DMV licenses Uber and Lyft outside NYC and states that TNC records exist for audits; it publishes no Buffalo or Erie County trip counts. NYC TLC trip files are NYC-only. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports and OpenData Buffalo: transportation catalog shows AADT traffic counts and building permits; no taxi/TNC trip dataset. NYS TNC Act also bars local TNC trip taxes, so localities have little reason to tabulate trips. (3) Airport ground transportation: Uber operates at BUF with a designated rideshare pickup, and NFTA reports airport passenger volume, but no published TNC pickup/dropoff count was found on NFTA or airport pages opened this session. (4) MPO travel survey: GBNRTC/NFTA 2024 onboard survey reports ~62,000 average weekday transit boardings and that 53% of riders would take an Uber or taxi if transit vanished — a substitution share, not a TNC trip census. (5) Local reporting: 2017 launch stories and destination lists; no quoted official trip total. Unlike Nevada’s Taxicab Authority, New York does not publish upstate TNC trip totals. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [3415, 54643], "editable": true, "low": 7129, "high": 23586, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in this order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: NYS DMV licenses Uber and Lyft outside NYC and states that TNC records exist for audits; it publishes no Buffalo or Erie County trip counts. NYC TLC trip files are NYC-only. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports and OpenData Buffalo: transportation catalog shows AADT traffic counts and building permits; no taxi/TNC trip dataset. NYS TNC Act also bars local TNC trip taxes, so localities have little reason to tabulate trips. (3) Airport ground transportation: Uber operates at BUF with a designated rideshare pickup, and NFTA reports airport passenger volume, but no published TNC pickup/dropoff count was found on NFTA or airport pages opened this session. (4) MPO travel survey: GBNRTC/NFTA 2024 onboard survey reports ~62,000 average weekday transit boardings and that 53% of riders would take an Uber or taxi if transit vanished — a substitution share, not a TNC trip census. (5) Local reporting: 2017 launch stories and destination lists; no quoted official trip total. Unlike Nevada’s Taxicab Authority, New York does not publish upstate TNC trip totals.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 13661, "our_range_per_day": [3415, 54643]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "274,613 people", "federal": "the note says 274,613; the Census file says Buffalo city 274,613 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "Buffalo is National Grid / Niagara Mohawk Load Zone A (Frontier), confirmed on National Grid’s load-zone sheet (Buffalo listed under Zone A) and NYSERDA. All-in TOU cents are built from: (1) National Grid Upstate residential Service Rates SC-1 VTOU delivery, https://www.nationalgridus.com/upstate-ny-home/Rates/Service-Rates.aspx — Off Peak 1.299¢, On Peak/Super Peak 12.633¢, Basic $19.00 plus $4.42 incremental; (2) Niagara Mohawk 12-month trailing mass-market supply ending 2026-06-30, https://www.nationalgridus.com/media/pdfs/billing-payments/electric-rates/upstate-ny/2026/esco_order_web_prices_june_26.pdf — Zone A SC1VTOU Off Peak $0.08937, On Peak $0.11543, Super Peak $0.24264, includes ESCOST+ESRM+CESS+MFC, excludes tax; (3) ODS-9 SC1 other delivery surcharges effective 2026-04-30 and SBC-29 SC1 $0.002981 effective 2026-01-01. The legal tariff is PSC No. 220, SC-1 Special Provision L; the cents above are the utility’s posted implementation, not a third-party recap. Later ODS statements exist (through Aug 2026) and were not fully summed — riders can move ~±0.5¢. LTC is omitted (often a small residential credit). GRT/sales tax omitted. Monthly customer charges omitted from $/kWh. VTOU has no mid-peak delivery period, so daytime and evening volumetric rates match except summer weekday 2–6pm super-peak supply (~$0.38 all-in). A commercial depot may instead take SC-2 VTOU or the EV Phase-In Rate; SC-1 VTOU is residential. DCFC: NYPA EVolve NY $0.47/kWh upstate is the operator-published flat rate and NYPA names Buffalo as an urban hub; Tesla member peak $0.42 at 4455 Transit Rd (14221) and EA $0.60 at Walmart 2500 Walden Ave, Cheektowaga are nearby alternatives, not used as the posted city figure. Do not mix these with the EIA NY state averages ($0.2926 residential YTD / $0.2356 commercial) — those are statewide and already settled.", "demand": "Visitors_year is calendar year 2025, Erie County domestic only (Visit Buffalo / Longwoods 7.6 million). It is not the City of Buffalo municipal line, and it excludes Canadians — other local comments have used ~10 million or a 9.5–9.7 million 2024 figure under different definitions; do not mix years. Party size 3.1 and nights 2.3 are the only visitor-authority party/stay numbers found, from a 2012 Longwoods Canadian overnight shopping study commissioned by Visit Buffalo Niagara — likely high vs today’s mixed domestic visitor. Adult share is the settled ACS 0.7768; not re-estimated. Strongest local demand facts used in the estimates: 0.2259 of households have no vehicle, 19.9-minute mean commute, 0.0095 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail, 0.0812 by transit. NFTA evening/weekend service exists, so night ride-hail is not filling a total transit blackout. rides_reported=0 is “no published count found,” not zero rides.", "geography": "BUF is 7.3 miles outside the city in Cheektowaga; the airport page's 'up to 100 nonstop flights per day' is an operator peak, not a typical-day departure count (2024 FAA enplanements 2,499,295 imply on the order of 50–70 passenger departures on an average day). ECMC 573 is inpatient/licensed language, not labelled staffed. College 11,439 excludes UB's 30,400 because North Campus is in Amherst; raise toward ~42,000 if you want the flagship counted. Bills/Highmark Stadium are not in the city. Taste of Buffalo 450,000 and Wing Fest 80,000/yr are Wikipedia infobox figures (organizer/press estimates). Wikipedia neighborhood area of 52 sq mi includes water; land area used for radius is the settled 40.376.", "costs": "Buffalo is outside NYC, so VTL Article 44-B TNC rules apply; NY DMV says no locality has opted out. TNC vehicles are not city-licensed taxis/liveries (DMV: regular passenger plates). City taxi/livery licenses are a separate regime on the 2026 Buffalo application ($115 taxi / $75 livery) plus NYS taxi/livery plates under VTL §401.7.C ($31.63/year for ≤5 passengers excluding the driver). Original NY passenger registration also charges $25 plates and $50 title (NY DMV estimate-fees page). City-managed BCAR ramps sell monthly permits (buffalony.gov commuting page) but neither buffalony.gov nor bcarparking.com exposed a crawlable monthly dollar rate; an ArcGIS widget showed ~$97 regular at Adam Ramp but is JavaScript-rendered and not verifiable. Main Place $160 is a downtown operator rate, not a city ordinance."}, "gaps": ["power_utility: 5 utilities file a service territory for Erie County, and the two largest -- Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. with 1,430,208 customers and New York State Elec & Gas Corp with 735,192 -- are close enough in size that the county file cannot say which one this city is on. No utility and no utility rate were taken from it; the question goes to the research pass instead.", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 77, "sourced": 27, "derived": 32, "estimated": 18}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_candidates", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 27, "primary": 19, "secondary": 8, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 50, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 39, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 39, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 16, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility_candidates", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. What guards them instead is a plausibility band applied when the record is built, and anything outside it is flagged into `gaps` rather than accepted.", "files": {"sub-est2025.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 7464556, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv"}, "gaz_place_36.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 134191, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_36.txt"}, "co-est2025-alldata.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 2071735, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv"}, "faa-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 58201, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx"}, "faa-us-airports.json": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 3686620, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0"}, "eia-epm-table-5-06-a.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 19709, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx"}, "eia-epm-table-5-06-b.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 19788, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx"}, "eia-861-2024.zip": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 4568208, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 3, "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip"}, "noaa-normals-inventory-30yr.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1342890, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/doc/inventory_30yr.txt"}, "noaa\\US1NYER0059.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 8376, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1NYER0059.csv"}, "noaa\\US1NYER0053.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1582, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1NYER0053.csv"}, "noaa\\US1NYER0057.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1546, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/US1NYER0057.csv"}, "noaa\\USW00014733.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 41534, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USW00014733.csv"}, "acs2024-b01001-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 11267969, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b01001.dat"}, "acs2024-b08301-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 4910243, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b08301.dat"}, "acs2024-b08303-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 3510917, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b08303.dat"}, "acs2024-b08013-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1608092, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b08013.dat"}, "acs2024-b25044-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 3952608, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25044.dat"}, "acs2024-b19013-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1058767, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat"}, "acs2024-b25064-places-counties.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1025542, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25064.dat"}, "bls-oes2024-53-7061-national.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 120, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip"}, "bls-oes2024-area-definitions.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 147222, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/2024/may/area_definitions_m2024.xlsx"}, "bls-oes2024-53-7061-areas.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 33711, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip"}, "acs2024-b25064-us-states.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1043, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25064.dat"}}, "downloads_this_run": 0, "cache_reuses_this_run": 26, "not_bulk_sourced_and_why": "What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 39, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 16, "citations_checked": 17, "citations_passed": 11, "citations_failed": 6, "primary": 3, "secondary": 8, "derived_downgraded": 0, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 3611000 -- Buffalo city, New York", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 3611000 -- Buffalo city", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 36029 -- Erie County, New York", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid BUF -- Buffalo Niagara International, Buffalo NY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid BUF -- Buffalo Niagara International, Buffalo NY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid BUF -- Buffalo Niagara International, Buffalo NY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "New York, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "New York, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "New York, June 2026 YTD", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility_candidates", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Erie County, NY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "climate_station", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "BUFFALO, NY US (USW00014733), 7.3 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US3611000, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 15380 -- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "labour_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://gridconnect.nyserda.ny.gov/nygc-home/utility-profiles-information/national-grid/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 5 of the 6 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://evolveny.nypa.gov/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://nationalgridus.com/time-of-use", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://thingstodoinbuffalo.com/transportation/taxi-rideshare/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://elements.nfta.com/media/k2yhjha4/metro_service_guidelines.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 12 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://visitbuffalo.com/tourism-spending-in-erie-county-set-another-new-high-in-2025/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://longwoods-intl.com/visitor-travel-research/visit-buffalo-niagara-and-niagara-tourism-convention-corporation-release-canadian-shopping-research/", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://longwoods-intl.com/visitor-travel-research/visit-buffalo-niagara-and-niagara-tourism-convention-corporation-release-canadian-shopping-research/", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://beinbuffalo.com/live", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 13 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.buffaloairport.com/airport-info/about-the-airport", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 11 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.ecmc.edu/andrew-l-davis-mba-named-ecmc-president-and-chief-executive-officer/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_festivals_in_Buffalo,_New_York", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 11 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps_and_licensing/property_insurers/trans_network_co_ride_sharing_faqs", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 4 of the 4 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.buffalony.gov/DocumentCenter/View/11873/taxi-livery-application-_-requirements-2026", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 12 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.mainliberty.com/parking", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1851.3}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "buffalo-ny", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.32, "draws": [0.26, 0.32, 0.32, 0.25, 0.34], "min": 0.25, "max": 0.34, "spread_x": 1.36}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.8, "draws": [0.8, 0.6, 1.1, 0.6, 1.1], "min": 0.6, "max": 1.1, "spread_x": 1.83}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.7, "draws": [2.5, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 3.3], "min": 2.5, "max": 3.3, "spread_x": 1.32}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [7129, 23586]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in this order. (1) State taxicab/TNC authority: NYS DMV licenses Uber and Lyft outside NYC and states that TNC records exist for audits; it publishes no Buffalo or Erie County trip counts. NYC TLC trip files are NYC-only. (2) City/county TNC or for-hire reports and OpenData Buffalo: transportation catalog shows AADT traffic counts and building permits; no taxi/TNC trip dataset. NYS TNC Act also bars local TNC trip taxes, so localities have little reason to tabulate trips. (3) Airport ground transportation: Uber operates at BUF with a designated rideshare pickup, and NFTA reports airport passenger volume, but no published TNC pickup/dropoff count was found on NFTA or airport pages opened this session. (4) MPO travel survey: GBNRTC/NFTA 2024 onboard survey reports ~62,000 average weekday transit boardings and that 53% of riders would take an Uber or taxi if transit vanished — a substitution share, not a TNC trip census. (5) Local reporting: 2017 launch stories and destination lists; no quoted official trip total. Unlike Nevada’s Taxicab Authority, New York does not publish upstate TNC trip totals.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 13661, "our_range_per_day": [3415, 54643]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 77 numbers behind a season in Buffalo, 27 are published figures, 32 are worked out from published figures, and 18 are our own estimates. 39 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [42.892492, -78.859686], "geoid": "3611000", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Buffalo city", "population": 274613, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Erie County", "population": 946741, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 39, "dcfc_ports": 113, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "Aldi Broadway TUL 84", "network": "RED_E", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.1, "open_date": "2025-11-04"}, {"name": "West Seneca, NY - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 4.1, "open_date": "2024-09-18"}, {"name": "Basil Ford", "network": "FORD_CHARGE", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 4.3, "open_date": "2023-11-03"}, {"name": "Aldi TUL 80 Elmwood", "network": "RED_E", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 4.4, "open_date": "2025-11-03"}, {"name": "Cheektowaga, NY - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 5.0, "open_date": "2020-02-06"}, {"name": "NEW CITY HALL CITY HALL 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 5.2, "open_date": "2026-06-06"}, {"name": "NEW CITY HALL CITY HALL 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 5.2, "open_date": "2026-06-06"}, {"name": "Walmart 2586 (Cheektowaga, NY)", "network": "Electrify America", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 5.9, "open_date": "2020-09-04"}, {"name": "Manor Lanes", "network": "SWTCH", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 6.5, "open_date": "2025-10-17"}, {"name": "Warehouse Restaurant", "network": "VIALYNK", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.3, "open_date": "2026-05-09"}, {"name": "Buffalo Marriott Niagara", "network": "CHARGESMART_EV", "ports": 8, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 7.4, "open_date": "2026-03-05"}, {"name": "Quaker Crossing", "network": "VIALYNK", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.1, "open_date": "2024-06-07"}, {"name": "2100 Wehrle Dr", "network": "EV Connect", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772 J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.5, "open_date": "2025-09-19"}, {"name": "NAC SUB TRANSIT EXTERIORLEVEL 3", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.6, "open_date": "2026-03-31"}, {"name": "TOWNE HYUNDAI 3A", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO TESLA", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2022-08-09"}, {"name": "TOWNE HYUNDAI 3B", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2022-08-09"}, {"name": "AAA WESTCENTRAL DC FAST CHARGER", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2023-05-23"}, {"name": "L762 POWER LINK", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2024-09-20"}, {"name": "Towne Ford", "network": "FORD_CHARGE", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2024-03-18"}, {"name": "Delacy Ford Inc", "network": "FORD_CHARGE", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2024-09-05"}, {"name": "3344 Walden Ave", "network": "VIALYNK", "ports": 6, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 8.8, "open_date": "2025-09-11"}, {"name": "Grand Island - Tesla Supercharger (Pure Energy)", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 9.3, "open_date": "2026-07-03"}, {"name": "OPTIMUS ENERGY WILLIAMSVLL DC4", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 9.3, "open_date": "2026-07-22"}, {"name": "OPTIMUS ENERGY WILLIAMSVLL DC1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 9.3, "open_date": "2026-07-22"}, {"name": "OPTIMUS ENERGY WILLIAMSVLL DC2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 9.3, "open_date": "2026-07-22"}, {"name": "OPTIMUS ENERGY WILLIAMSVLL DC3", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 9.3, "open_date": "2026-07-22"}, {"name": "Dave Smith Ford", "network": "FORD_CHARGE", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.4, "open_date": "2024-09-30"}, {"name": "1 PAC Way", "network": "SYNERGEV", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772 J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.5, "open_date": "2026-03-04"}, {"name": "WEST HERR AUTO WH FA SVL3-2 PL", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.7, "open_date": "2024-02-29"}, {"name": "WEST HERR AUTO WH FH L3-1 EXPP", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.7, "open_date": "2024-09-12"}, {"name": "Buffalo, NY - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 9.8, "open_date": "2015-06-12"}, {"name": "WEST HERR AUTO WH AW L3-1 ABB", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.8, "open_date": "2024-06-14"}, {"name": "WEST HERR AUTO WH FH L3-2 EXPP", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.8, "open_date": "2024-09-12"}, {"name": "1910ALVINRD CPE-250#1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.9, "open_date": "2021-12-08"}, {"name": "1910ALVINRD CPE250 #2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.9, "open_date": "2021-12-08"}, {"name": "MB OF BUFFALO DC MERC BUFF 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.9, "open_date": "2021-12-18"}, {"name": "MB OF BUFFALO DC MERC BUFF 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.9, "open_date": "2021-12-18"}, {"name": "WEST HERR AUTO WH FA L3-2 PL", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 2, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 9.9, "open_date": "2025-09-30"}, {"name": "ChargeSmart EV - Hamburg", "network": "CHARGESMART_EV", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 9.9, "open_date": "2025-11-19"}], "l2_sites": 247, "l2_ports": 815, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "Aldi Broadway TUL 84", "network": "RED_E", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.1, "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 3, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 2, "skipped_no_file": 2, "claims": 7, "records_touched": 6, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 39}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "EVolve NY fast charging here", "claim_text": "NYPA’s EVolve NY network publishes a flat upstate public DCFC price of $0.47/kWh plus tax, with no session fee, and lists Buffalo among the urban hub cities.", "verdict": "unconfirmed", "federal": "the note names EVolve NY, but the snapshot has no EVolve NY fast-charging site within 10 miles; the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 39 open public DC fast-charging sites (113 fast ports) within 10 miles", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "A Tesla Supercharger at 4455 Transit Road (14221, just east of the city line) was $0.42/kWh member peak / $0.32 overnight on 2026-09-12;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists West Seneca, NY - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 4.1 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Beds from each hospital's own page (573 / 526 / 387).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "ECMC is the largest hospital in the city by its own inpatient-bed count;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "2,558,414 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "2,558,414 boardings across the 2 commercial airports within 35 miles (BUF 2,499,295 at 7 mi, IAG 59,119 at 16 mi) in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 7,600,000 visitors a year = 0.337.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 2,558,414; FAA CY2024 enplanements for BUF = 2,499,295 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "274,613 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 274,613 people x 0.7768 adults = 213,319 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 274,613; the Census file says Buffalo city 274,613 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "EVolve NY fast charging here", "claim_text": "DCFC: NYPA EVolve NY $0.47/kWh upstate is the operator-published flat rate and NYPA names Buffalo as an urban hub;", "verdict": "unconfirmed", "federal": "the note names EVolve NY, but the snapshot has no EVolve NY fast-charging site within 10 miles; the DOE/AFDC snapshot lists 39 open public DC fast-charging sites (113 fast ports) within 10 miles", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 6, "gone": 0, "moved": 1, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 5, "passes_the_same_test_now": 0, "still_fails_the_same_test": 6, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "airport_flights_note", "url": "https://www.buffaloairport.com/airport-info/about-the-airport", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 5 of the 11 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 5 of the 11 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "power_tou_note", "url": "https://nationalgridus.com/time-of-use", "url_today": "moved -- it redirects to a live page", "detail_today": "redirects 301/301 -> https://www.nationalgridus.com/Upstate-NY-Home/Voluntary-Time-of-Use-Rate/Voluntary-Time-of-Use-Rate", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note", "moved_to": "https://www.nationalgridus.com/Upstate-NY-Home/Voluntary-Time-of-Use-Rate/Voluntary-Time-of-Use-Rate"}, {"record": "registration_note", "url": "https://www.buffalony.gov/DocumentCenter/View/11873/taxi-livery-application-_-requirements-2026", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 12 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 6 of the 12 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "ridehail_present", "url": "https://thingstodoinbuffalo.com/transportation/taxi-rideshare/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 6 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "visitor_nights_avg", "url": "https://longwoods-intl.com/visitor-travel-research/visit-buffalo-niagara-and-niagara-tourism-convention-corporation-release-canadian-shopping-research/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 2.3 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}, {"record": "visitor_party_size", "url": "https://longwoods-intl.com/visitor-travel-research/visit-buffalo-niagara-and-niagara-tourism-convention-corporation-release-canadian-shopping-research/", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 3.1 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}]}}, "ok": true}