{"id": "bend-or", "label": "Bend, OR", "city": "Bend", "state": "OR", "county": "Deschutes County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 107342, "researched_on": "2026-09-14", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 29, "derived": 31, "estimated": 20}, "gaps": 4, "citations": {"checked": 15, "passed": 11, "failed": 4}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Bend, 29 are published figures, 31 are worked out from published figures, and 20 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "bend-or", "city": "Bend", "state": "OR", "label": "Bend, OR", "county": "Deschutes County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-14", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.3", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 107342, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Bend city, Oregon.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 4105800 -- Bend city, Oregon"}, "range": [53671, 214684], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 35.204, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Bend city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_41.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-08", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 4105800 -- Bend city"}, "range": [17.6, 70.4], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 3049, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "107,342 residents divided by 35.204 square miles of land = 3,049 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [1219, 7622], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 213072, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Deschutes County, Oregon. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 41017 -- Deschutes County, Oregon"}, "range": [106536, 426144], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Roberts Field", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDM -- Roberts Field, Redmond OR"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "RDM", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDM -- Roberts Field, Redmond OR"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 601152, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDM -- Roberts Field, Redmond OR"}, "range": [300576, 1202304], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 7.6, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 601,152 against CY2023 558,804, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (601,152 - 558,804) / 558,804 = 7.6%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 15.7, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (44.056683, -121.307991, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (44.254074, -121.149985, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 15.7 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [7.9, 39.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_alternatives_note", "label": "Busier airports within reach", "value": "Mahlon Sweet Field (EUG) 95 mi away, 824,952 boardings a year", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest airport is not always the one people use. These are the busier commercial airports within 120 miles, from the same FAA file, so a reader can see the choice a traveller here actually has.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDM -- Roberts Field, Redmond OR"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.1632, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across Oregon in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Oregon, June 2026"}, "range": [0.082, 0.326], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.1059, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Oregon, June 2026"}, "range": [0.053, 0.212], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.1531, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Oregon, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.077, 0.306], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "PacifiCorp", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Deschutes County, OR -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 5 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility PacifiCorp (#14354), Deschutes County County rows, OR"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "Central Electric Coop Inc - (OR) (34,562 customers); Midstate Electric Coop, Inc (18,594 customers); Harney Electric Coop, Inc (2,478 customers); Bonneville Power Administration (0 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility PacifiCorp (#14354), Deschutes County County rows, OR"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.1402, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for PacifiCorp, out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for PacifiCorp: residential revenue of $812,639.6 thousand against 5,796,437 MWh sold. (812,639.6 x 1,000 dollars) / (5,796,437 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.1402 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.07, 0.28], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.1064, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for PacifiCorp: commercial revenue of $699,667.0 thousand against 6,576,188 MWh sold, so $0.1064 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.053, 0.213], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "BEND, OR US (USC00350694), 1.1 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00350694", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00350694.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BEND, OR US (USC00350694), 1.1 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 47.6, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00350694: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 47.6F.", "source": null, "range": [32.6, 62.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 32.1, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "December is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00350694", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00350694.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BEND, OR US (USC00350694), 1.1 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [17.1, 47.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 66.2, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00350694", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00350694.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BEND, OR US (USC00350694), 1.1 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [51.2, 81.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 10.62, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00350694: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 10.62 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [5.3, 19.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 63.0, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00350694: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 63.0 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 21.6, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00350694, 1.1 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station BEND, OR US (USC00350694), 1.1 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 21.6 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 43], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 13.9, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00350694", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00350694.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "BEND, OR US (USC00350694), 1.1 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8072, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Bend, OR, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: total population 103,390, of whom 19,932 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (103,390 - 19,932) / 103,390 = 0.8072.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 96394, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Bend, OR. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US4105800, B19013_E001"}, "range": [48197, 192788], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.0485, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Bend, OR with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: 44,436 occupied households, of which 443 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 1,711 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (443 + 1,711) / 44,436 = 0.0485, or 4.9%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.6354, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: 34,948 of 55,002 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.6354, or 63.54%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0024, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: 132 of 55,002 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0024, or 0.24%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0015, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: 80 of 55,002 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0015, or 0.15%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.2478, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: 13,629 of 55,002 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.2478, or 24.78%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 16.3, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Bend, OR. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US4105800: 674,495 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 41,373 workers who did not work from home = 16.3 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 17.89, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in Bend, OR, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'Bend, OR', 280 people employed in it: median hourly wage $17.89. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 17.89 / 16.96 = 1.055.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 13460 -- Bend, OR"}, "range": [10.73, 32.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 17.89, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, Bend, OR"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in Bend, OR are paid a median of $17.89 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 280 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 105% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 1.055, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'Bend, OR' is $17.89 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 17.89 / 16.96 = 1.055. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 1.333, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $1,883 a month in Bend, OR (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 1883 / 1413 = 1.333.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 37, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 1.055 = $37.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [15, 92], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 76, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 1.055 = $76.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [31, 191], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 160, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 1.055 = $160.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [64, 399], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 1699, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 1.333 = $1,699 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [680, 5097], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 313, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,170.31 in OR against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1170.31 / 1281.60 = 0.913. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.913 = $313 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [125, 939], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1170.31, "unit": "$/year", "note": "OR average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 266, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$313 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $266. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [106, 798], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.10709, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Pacific Power Oregon Schedule 4 optional Time-of-Use all-in off-peak rate from the utility’s own April 1, 2026 Price Summary (delivery + supply + listed riders plus the Schedule 201 off-peak credit of −3.790¢/kWh). Midnight–06:00 is fully off-peak; on-peak is only 5–9 p.m. every day. Excludes System Benefits (0.065¢), Energy Trust (1.166¢), the 1.5% public-purpose charge, and the BPA credit. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pacific Power Oregon Price Summary", "date": "2026-04", "url": "https://www.pacificpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/pacificpower/rates-regulation/oregon/tariffs/Oregon_Price_Summary.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 10.709 on the same line as 'off-peak' (printed in cents)"}, "range": [0.04, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.10709, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Pacific Power’s Oregon residential TOU has only two periods, not three: on-peak is 5–9 p.m. every day and off-peak is all remaining hours, so 06:00–16:00 is entirely off-peak. This is the same published all-in off-peak Total Time-of-Use rate as overnight, not a mid-peak tariff period. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pacific Power Oregon Price Summary", "date": "2026-04", "url": "https://www.pacificpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/pacificpower/rates-regulation/oregon/tariffs/Oregon_Price_Summary.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.04, 0.2], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening peak electricity", "value": 0.28769, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Pacific Power Oregon Schedule 4 optional Time-of-Use all-in on-peak rate from the utility’s April 1, 2026 Price Summary (the 14.499¢ bundled energy rate plus the 14.270¢ on-peak adder). The tariff on-peak window is 5–9 p.m. every day, not 16:00–24:00; 16:00–17:00 and 21:00–24:00 stay off-peak, so applying this rate to the whole evening overstates cost. Same rider exclusions as off-peak. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pacific Power Oregon Price Summary", "date": "2026-04", "url": "https://www.pacificpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/pacificpower/rates-regulation/oregon/tariffs/Oregon_Price_Summary.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 28.769 on the same line as 'on-peak' (printed in cents)"}, "range": [0.1, 0.5], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charger", "value": 0.47, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Posted DC fast-charging price at Pacific Power’s public ChargePoint station at 70 NW Newport Ave in Bend, matching Oregon Schedule 60 for company-operated chargers over 19.2 kW. This is the on-peak (5–9 p.m.) rate; all other hours are 30¢/kWh, so this figure is high for overnight public charging. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pacific Power", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.pacificpower.net/savings-energy-choices/electric-vehicles/find-charging-stations.html", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "found 47 on the same line as 'on-peak' (printed in cents)"}, "range": [0.25, 0.8], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: optional Oregon Residential Time of Use on Schedule 4 (also Schedule 5 separately metered EV and Schedule 23 small non-residential); on-peak 5–9 p.m. every day, off-peak all other hours; 12-month commitment. Closed Schedule 210 is closed to new service.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "PacifiCorp d/b/a Pacific Power currently offers a voluntary two-period TOU option a residential or small-commercial customer in Bend can take; hours and adders are in Schedule 201, enrollment is on the utility TOU page, and it requires a one-year stay. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pacific Power Time of Use", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.pacificpower.net/savings-energy-choices/time-of-use.html", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi services on the ground", "value": "Uber and Lyft operate in Bend and at Redmond Airport (RDM); local taxis (Taxis of Bend, Owl Taxi, Coiled Cabs, Bend Cab) and airport shuttles also run. Supply is thin: Uber itself warns pickup times are longer than in bigger cities, and Visit Central Oregon says early/late airport rideshare can be limited even with a reservation.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Operator and airport pages confirm Uber/Lyft are live in Bend and at RDM, while the same operator page and the regional visitor bureau both flag thin driver supply rather than big-city coverage. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Uber (Bend city page)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.uber.com/global/en/r/cities/bend-or-us/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code RDM", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists RDM: Roberts Field, Redmond OR, 601,152 CY2024 enplanements", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "Yes: Cascades East Transit runs Bend city buses about 6:00–19:30 weekdays with Saturday service; no Sunday service and last weekday departures around 7 p.m., so evenings and Sundays have no bus.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "CET's own June 2025 service-change notice sets last Bend fixed-route departures at 7 p.m.; a July 2025 local report and CET's contact page confirm Saturday service exists and Sunday is closed, which pushes nightlife and late hospital-shift trips onto cars or paid rides. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Cascades East Transit", "date": "2025-05", "url": "https://cascadeseasttransit.com/changes/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 10 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 5.0, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No Bend TNC trip-length table is published; 5.0 miles is an in-town-weighted paid-trip length reasoned from the city's own land area and Uber's published 11-minute Bend ride, with a small airport tail.", "math": "Census land area is 35.204 sq mi, so an equivalent-circle diameter is 2×sqrt(35.204/π)≈6.69 miles; typical in-town paid trips sit around 40–70% of that diameter (≈2.7–4.7 miles). Uber's Bend page says the average ride lasts 11 minutes; at 22–25 mph city speed that is 4.0–4.6 miles, matching the compact geography and the short 16.3-minute mean commute. RDM is 19 miles from Bend on the same Uber page, which lengthens a minority of paid trips (airport, Mt. Bachelor, Sunriver). Weighting ~85% in-town at ~4.5 miles and ~15% long at ~16 miles gives 0.85×4.5+0.15×16≈6.2, but ACS shows only 0.0015 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail and Visit Bend's summer survey found 71% of visitors used a private car, so the airport/recreation tail is smaller than a tourist-airport city; 5.0 miles is the in-town-weighted figure. Likely conservative if a larger share of paid rides are RDM or Bachelor runs. Stepped down on Bend's short commute and 6.69-mile diameter, not on a national 6-mile TNC average.", "source": null, "range": [2.5, 12], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.4, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Bend MPO republishes BTS Feb 2022 Deschutes County all-mode trips with 51.8% under 3 miles; paid ride-hail skips most walkable sub-1-mile trips, so the TNC share is stepped down from that county figure.", "math": "BTS/MPO: 178,421 trips <1 mile (25.6%) + 182,611 trips 1–3 miles (26.2%) = 51.8% of all Deschutes trips under 3 miles. Those <1-mile trips are mostly walk/bike, not paid rides. Among trips of 1+ miles, the 1–3 mile bin is 182,611/519,309≈0.35. TNC adds some sub-1-mile downtown brewery hops (Bend's 6.69-mile equivalent diameter and 4.85% of households with no vehicle) so the paid-trip share sits between 0.35 and 0.52. Use 0.40. Stepped down ON the county all-mode 51.8% under-3 figure and the short 16.3-minute commute; direction is uncertain — downtown bar-hopping could push it higher, airport runs lower.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.12, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The same Deschutes all-mode table shows 22.6% of trips over 10 miles, but that mix is dominated by ordinary car commutes to Redmond and beyond; paid TNC long trips are mostly the 19-mile RDM run and recreation, a thinner tail.", "math": "MPO/BTS Feb 2022 Deschutes: 10–25 miles 14.9% + 25–50 miles 5.3% + >50 miles 2.4% = 22.6% of ALL trips over 10 miles. Most of those are household car trips, not TNC (ACS: 0.0015 of workers commute by taxi/ride-hail; 0.2478 work from home). Uber lists RDM at 19 miles and Eugene at 93 miles; RDM is the realistic long paid trip. With visitors mostly in private cars, long TNC share should be well below 22.6%. Use 0.12 (about half the all-mode over-10 share). Likely conservative if ski/airport TNC is a larger slice of paid rides than of all travel; likely high if almost all TNC is downtown. Stepped down ON the 22.6% county figure and the 19-mile airport distance.", "source": null, "range": [0.04, 0.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.18, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes Bend TNC hours; 0.18 is a night-skewed paid-ride share for a brewery town whose buses stop around 7 p.m. and do not run Sundays, pulled down by very high car access.", "math": "21:00–03:00 is 6/24=0.25 of clock time but far less of ordinary travel. All-mode night shares are typically ~0.08–0.12; TNC is night-heavier because of drinking and closed transit. CET last Bend departure is 7 p.m. and there is no Sunday bus, so bar close, late restaurant staff, and St. Charles shift changes cannot use transit. Uber lists Stars Cabaret among common Bend destinations. Offsets: only 4.85% of households have no vehicle, 0.0024 of workers commute by transit, and 71% of summer visitors used a private car — many night trips stay in a household or rental car unless the driver has been drinking. 0.18 sits above all-mode night share and below a big-city bar-district TNC share (~0.25). Likely conservative given no evening bus; high car ownership is the step-down.", "source": null, "range": [0.08, 0.35], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual overnight visitors", "value": 978600, "unit": "person-trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Dean Runyan's Visit Bend 2025 preliminary report (March 2026) is the visitor authority's most recent complete calendar-year overnight person-trip count: 978,600 in 2025. This is overnight visitors only; the same report does not publish day-visitor volume. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://industry.visitbend.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2025p-Travel-Impact-Report-Bend-2026-03-27.pdf: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the digits 978,600 appear near 'overnight' but on a different row -- that is a neighbouring entry in the same table, not this city's figure). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [500000, 2500000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.63, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Same Dean Runyan 2025 Bend table that gives 978,600 overnight person-trips also gives 372,800 overnight party-trips; people per party is the ratio. Parties share cars, so this—not headcount—is the visitor-ride denominator.", "math": "978,600 overnight person-trips ÷ 372,800 overnight party-trips = 2.625, rounded to 2.63. Matches the report's All Overnight party-size cell of 2.6. RRC's older summer 2022 intercept/online survey found average party size 2.96 (median 2) and winter 2021/22 found 2.7; those are survey samples, not the 2025 volume-weighted official ratio. Using 2.63 keeps party size on the same 2025 calendar year as visitors_year. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Annual overnight visitors', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 4.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitors_year"]}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 3.5, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Dean Runyan 2025 reports 3,419,900 overnight visitor-nights and 978,600 overnight person-trips for Bend; nights per person-trip is 3.5, and the All Overnight length-of-stay cell is 3.5.", "math": "3,419,900 overnight visitor-nights ÷ 978,600 overnight person-trips = 3.494, which the same table rounds to 3.5 nights for All Overnight (hotel/motel 2.9, STVR 3.4, VFR 4.0, other 3.9). Visit Bend's RRC summer 2022 survey independently reported average nights of 3.5 (down from 4.2 in 2021). This is nights per person-trip, not extra nights per party beyond that. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Annual overnight visitors', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [1.5, 7], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitors_year"]}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Published paid-ride count (independent cross-check)", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No Bend, Deschutes County, RDM, Oregon, or local-news source publishes a taxi or TNC trip total for this city; 0 means none found after checking the five required places, not zero rides.", "math": "Checked in order: (1) STATE — Oregon has no Nevada-style taxicab authority posting trip counts. ODOT monthly indicators cover VMT, fatalities, fuel, and statewide transit rides per capita, not TNC/taxi trips; the Oregon PUC statistics book is utilities; OHA's TNC material is a Medicaid NEMT pilot, not Bend ride-hail volume. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Bend Code 7.35 and the City of Bend Vehicle for Hire license page require TNCs to keep trip records for a year and allow a data-sharing agreement, but the license page and city/county open data do not publish those counts. (3) AIRPORT — flyrdm.com lists Uber and Lyft pickup at curbside north of the terminal and names taxi/shuttle firms, but publishes no TNC pickup totals (BTS has RDM passenger counts, not ground-transport mode). (4) MPO — Bend MPO's Oregon Travel Study 2023–24 page still says results will be available in late spring 2026 and does not post a TNC trip total; the MPO trip-length page is BTS all-mode distances, not paid rides. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — The Bulletin and Central Oregon Daily cover Uber's 2017 launch, CET hours, and carless travel; none quote a Bend taxi/TNC trip count. Portland's ~8 million TNC+taxi trips in FY2025 is Portland only and is not used here.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Bend is one compact city of 35.204 sq mi; downtown, the Old Mill, St. Charles, and both college campuses sit inside a ~3.3-mile equivalent radius, so one car covers the town. The 13 official neighborhood districts are civic associations, not separate urban cores a fleet must choose between. The commercial airport is in Redmond, 15.7 miles away, not a second Bend district.", "math": "Settled land area 35.204 sq mi implies an equivalent circular radius of 3.35 miles (see city_radius_mi). The Hayden Homes Amphitheater, in the Old Mill, says guests can walk or bike from almost anywhere in town. Distinct commercial nodes exist (downtown vs Old Mill vs hospital eastside vs westside colleges) but they are neighborhoods of one town, not a multi-city metro. Likely conservative as a 'single-radius' call — event nights at the amphitheater and ski traffic on Century Drive still create local hotspots, but they do not require a second base.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["city_radius_mi"]}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 3.35, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge figure; this is the area-equivalent radius from the settled Census land area of 35.204 square miles, which is the instructed fallback.", "math": "r = sqrt(land area / π) = sqrt(35.204 / 3.1416) = sqrt(11.206) = 3.35 miles. This is the radius of a circle with Bend's land area, not the farthest city-limit point. Bend is elongated north–south along the Deschutes and US-97, so the actual distance from downtown to the north or south built-up edge is closer to 5–6 miles. 3.35 is therefore a typical-edge figure and likely conservative as a maximum.", "source": null, "range": [2.5, 6.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 5, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The City recognizes 13 neighborhood districts, but those are civic/residential associations. For fleet demand the town has five meaningfully different nodes: walkable downtown, the Old Mill riverfront, the hospital eastside, the westside colleges and Century Drive recreation corridor, and the auto-oriented 3rd Street/Hwy 97 strip.", "math": "Start from the 13 official districts (Awbrey Butte, Boyd Acres, Century West, Larkspur, Mountain View, Old Bend, Old Farm District, Orchard District, River West, Southeast Bend, Southern Crossing, Southwest Bend, Summit West). Collapse them into demand generators a fleet would actually choose between: (1) downtown/Old Bend/Drake Park, (2) Old Mill/Southern Crossing, (3) St. Charles/Mountain View eastside, (4) COCC + OSU-Cascades + Century West, (5) 3rd Street/Hwy 97 and north Boyd Acres. Using 13 overstates; using 1–2 understates the hospital vs mill vs downtown split. The Bend Central District arts zone is adjacent to downtown and is not counted separately.", "source": null, "range": [3, 13], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "District names", "value": "downtown/Old Bend and Drake Park; Old Mill riverfront (retail and Hayden Homes Amphitheater); St. Charles hospital eastside (NE Neff/Mountain View); westside colleges (COCC on Awbrey Butte, OSU-Cascades) and Century Drive; 3rd Street/Hwy 97 commercial strip toward Redmond", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Names the five demand nodes in district_count from the city's official districts plus the named commercial cores (downtown, Old Mill, hospital, colleges, Hwy 97 strip) that actually generate trips.", "math": "Mapped from the 13 official Neighborhood Districts and local commercial cores: Old Bend = downtown/Drake Park; Southern Crossing holds the Old Mill; Mountain View is the St. Charles medical corridor; Century West/Awbrey Butte/Summit West hold COCC, OSU-Cascades and the Mt. Bachelor road; Boyd Acres/Orchard District cover the 3rd Street/Hwy 97 strip. Not every civic district is a separate fleet zone.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Airport flights", "value": "30 daily flights on Alaska, American, Delta, United and Breeze; nonstops to SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, SAN, BUR, DEN, SLC, PHX, LAS and DFW", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Roberts Field's own site publishes the daily-flight count and the destination list. This is a western-US spoke airport, not a hub — a completely different demand pattern from a connecting bank. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Redmond Municipal Airport – Roberts Field", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://flyrdm.com/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the page carries 7 of the 8 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand generators", "value": "St. Charles Bend (292 beds; 4,528 Bend employees); Bend-La Pine School District (2,256); Mt. Bachelor ski area (1,311, just west of town); COCC Bend campus; OSU-Cascades (1,384 students); Hayden Homes Amphitheater (8,000 cap, 50+ summer shows); Old Mill District (270 acres, 2,500+ jobs)", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "Named generators a fleet actually feels: the regional hospital, the two campuses, the ski mountain that dumps traffic onto Century Drive, the 8,000-cap riverfront amphitheater, and the Old Mill mixed-use core. Employer counts are EDCO's 2026 Bend list.", "math": "Hospital beds 292 (St. Charles). College headcount 7,247 (OSU-Cascades 1,384 + COCC 5,863; see college_enrollment). EDCO 2026 Bend employers: St. Charles Health System 4,528, Bend-La Pine School District 2,256, Mt. Bachelor 1,311. Amphitheater holds 8,000 and hosted more than 50 shows in 2025. Old Mill Wikipedia (secondary compilation) says 270 acres and more than 2,500 jobs. Mt. Bachelor is outside city limits but is on the Bend employer list and fills town on powder days. Likely conservative on event demand — this still omits brewery tourism and river-float days.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital beds", "value": 292, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "St. Charles Bend is the only hospital in the city and the Level II trauma hub for Central and Eastern Oregon. The health system itself publishes 292 beds; Oregon's 2023 annual-services filing for the Bend campus lists the same figure as licensed beds. This is the published bed count, not a CMS staffed-census snapshot (occupancy is lower). This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "St. Charles Health System", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://stcharleshealthcare.org/careers/CST-Careers", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [150, 400], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment", "value": 7247, "unit": "students", "basis": "derived", "why": "Sum of the two colleges in the city: OSU-Cascades (Bend campus of Oregon State) plus Central Oregon Community College. COCC's main campus is on Awbrey Butte in Bend; the HECC fall headcount is the official state figure.", "math": "OSU-Cascades fall 2025 preliminary enrollment = 1,384 (university). Oregon HECC fall 2025 community-college headcount for Central Oregon = 5,863. 1,384 + 5,863 = 7,247. COCC's 5,863 is district-wide (Bend plus smaller campuses in Redmond, Madras and Prineville) and includes dual-credit high-school students; OSU-Cascades reports about 5% fully online. So 7,247 is high for in-city, in-person campus demand — Bend-campus-only would be lower. Fall 2025 OSU-Cascades is preliminary (finalized week four).", "source": null, "range": [4000, 12000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Annual events", "value": "Oregon WinterFest at the Old Mill (Feb 13–15); Pole Pedal Paddle from Mt. Bachelor to the Old Mill (May, 2,000+ racers); Balloons Over Bend sunrise launches (late July); Hayden Homes Amphitheater concert season (Memorial Day–early Oct, 50+ shows); Bend Film Festival (Oct 7–11)", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "These are the named annual events that actually move people across town: winter festival at the mill, the signature May race that finishes in the Old Mill, July balloons, the 8,000-cap summer concert season, and the October film festival downtown. Only events whose pages were opened are named.", "math": "WinterFest: Source Weekly, Feb 13–15 at Old Mill. Pole Pedal Paddle: MBSEF, May, 'Over 2,000 people participate… annually,' finish at Riverbend Park/Old Mill. Balloons Over Bend: Source Weekly, July 24–26, sunrise launches from R.E. Jewell Elementary. Amphitheater: operator, Memorial Day weekend through first week of October, more than 50 shows in 2025. Bend Film Festival: organizer, 23rd annual, October 7–11, 2026. Fourth of July Pet Parade/Pilot Butte fireworks are widely described locally but no page with a verbatim quote was retrieved, so they are omitted.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "Minimum liability insurance", "value": "$50,000/$100,000/$25,000 (app on); $1,000,000 CSL (during ride)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Oregon has no statewide TNC liability statute (HB 3023 died in 2019); taxis with five or fewer seats are also exempt from motor-carrier insurance under ORS 825.017(2), so the state floor is only ordinary financial responsibility of $25,000/$50,000/$20,000 in ORS 806.070. Cities set for-hire rules. Bend Code 7.35.040 is the published minimum for a TNC or taxi operating here: 50/100/25 while logged in, $1 million CSL once a ride is accepted, plus $1 million CSL commercial auto for taxi companies. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://bend.municipal.codes/BC/7.35.040: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [25000, 2000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC registration", "value": "Bend TNC company license $2,300/year (taxi $600/year); no per-car city plate", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Bend Code 7.35.020 requires an annual Vehicle for Hire Operating License, with amounts set by council fee resolution. Resolution 3457 (FY 2025-26, effective 1 Jan 2026) charges $2,300 for a TNC company and $600 for a taxi company — a company license, not a per-vehicle plate. Individual cars still pay ordinary ODOT passenger registration ($126/2 yrs at 0–19 MPG or $136/2 yrs at 20–39 MPG on the Oregon DMV fee page). Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://bendoregon.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/3457-Resolution.pdf: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [0, 5000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 40, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "City of Bend Resolution 3457 sets the Centennial Parking Garage monthly permit at $40, which is the dedicated downtown garage space. Same schedule: Value lots $20, Basic downtown $30, Premium $60. On-street downtown is still time-limited free parking, not a monthly stall. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://bendoregon.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/3457-Resolution.pdf: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [20, 100], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-14", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.577, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.0485 here against 0.0835 nationally = 0.58x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00150 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.57x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.58x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.29, 1.15], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0665, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Bend who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.58x: 0.1152 x 0.58 = 0.0665. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0266 to 0.1663, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0266, 0.1663], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.3, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.4. The MEDIAN, 2.2, is used; the draws spanned 2.2 to 2.4, a factor of 1.09. With only 0.0485 of households car-free and a 16.3-minute commute, monthly-active residents are occasional users (nights out, airport), not commuters.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.6143, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "601,152 boardings at RDM in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 978,600 visitors a year = 0.614. Boardings count DEPARTING passengers, and one visiting party that flies in also flies out, so this is the share of visitors who came by air. DIRECTION OF ERROR, STATED: boardings also include residents flying out on their own trips, so this OVERSTATES the visitor air share, and by more in a city whose residents fly a lot. It is capped at 0.95. NOTE: this was worked out from 'Annual overnight visitors', whose citation did not survive verification. The arithmetic is unchanged, but it now rests on an unconfirmed figure, so this is an estimate too.", "source": null, "range": [0.307, 0.921], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "601,152 passengers or enplanements", "federal": "the note gives 601,152; FAA CY2024 enplanements for RDM = 601,152 -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.18, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.16, 0.15, 0.22, 0.18, 0.18. The MEDIAN, 0.18, is used; the draws spanned 0.15 to 0.22, a factor of 1.47. RDM is 15.7 miles from Bend with no rail and a leisure/recreation visitor mix, so most air parties rent a car and ride-hail is only the no-rental leftover.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.8, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.85, 0.8, 1.2, 0.75, 0.7. The MEDIAN, 0.8, is used; the draws spanned 0.7 to 1.2, a factor of 1.71. A 3.5-night stay in a 35.204 sq mi outdoor city where most parties already have a car means local ride-hail is mainly an occasional night out, not attraction-hopping.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 1.021, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.614 arriving by air x 0.180 of those hiring a ride = 0.221, plus 0.800 trips in town = 1.021 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.79 to 1.60. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 1458, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 107342 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8072 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0665 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.2 (our estimate); Annual overnight visitors = 978600 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 2.63 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 1.021 (our estimate). Residents: 107,342 people x 0.8072 adults = 86,646 adults; x 0.0665 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 5,762 people; x 2.2 trips each a month = 12,676 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 417 resident rides a day. Visitors: 978,600 a year / 2.63 people in a party = 372,091 visiting parties; x 1.021 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 1,041 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 71% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 1,458 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 974 rides a day, and at its own high bound 2,774. The 1,458 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked in order: (1) STATE — Oregon has no Nevada-style taxicab authority posting trip counts. ODOT monthly indicators cover VMT, fatalities, fuel, and statewide transit rides per capita, not TNC/taxi trips; the Oregon PUC statistics book is utilities; OHA's TNC material is a Medicaid NEMT pilot, not Bend ride-hail volume. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Bend Code 7.35 and the City of Bend Vehicle for Hire license page require TNCs to keep trip records for a year and allow a data-sharing agreement, but the license page and city/county open data do not publish those counts. (3) AIRPORT — flyrdm.com lists Uber and Lyft pickup at curbside north of the terminal and names taxi/shuttle firms, but publishes no TNC pickup totals (BTS has RDM passenger counts, not ground-transport mode). (4) MPO — Bend MPO's Oregon Travel Study 2023–24 page still says results will be available in late spring 2026 and does not post a TNC trip total; the MPO trip-length page is BTS all-mode distances, not paid rides. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — The Bulletin and Central Oregon Daily cover Uber's 2017 launch, CET hours, and carless travel; none quote a Bend taxi/TNC trip count. Portland's ~8 million TNC+taxi trips in FY2025 is Portland only and is not used here. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [364, 5831], "editable": true, "low": 974, "high": 2774, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in order: (1) STATE — Oregon has no Nevada-style taxicab authority posting trip counts. ODOT monthly indicators cover VMT, fatalities, fuel, and statewide transit rides per capita, not TNC/taxi trips; the Oregon PUC statistics book is utilities; OHA's TNC material is a Medicaid NEMT pilot, not Bend ride-hail volume. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Bend Code 7.35 and the City of Bend Vehicle for Hire license page require TNCs to keep trip records for a year and allow a data-sharing agreement, but the license page and city/county open data do not publish those counts. (3) AIRPORT — flyrdm.com lists Uber and Lyft pickup at curbside north of the terminal and names taxi/shuttle firms, but publishes no TNC pickup totals (BTS has RDM passenger counts, not ground-transport mode). (4) MPO — Bend MPO's Oregon Travel Study 2023–24 page still says results will be available in late spring 2026 and does not post a TNC trip total; the MPO trip-length page is BTS all-mode distances, not paid rides. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — The Bulletin and Central Oregon Daily cover Uber's 2017 launch, CET hours, and carless travel; none quote a Bend taxi/TNC trip count. Portland's ~8 million TNC+taxi trips in FY2025 is Portland only and is not used here.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 1458, "our_range_per_day": [364, 5831]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "107,342 people", "federal": "the note says 107,342; the Census file says Bend city 107,342 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}], "notes": {"power": "TOU all-in cents come from Pacific Power’s Oregon Price Summary effective April 1, 2026 (Total Time-of-Use Rates 10.709¢ off-peak / 28.769¢ on-peak), which stacks Schedule 4 delivery, Schedules 200/201 supply, listed adjustment schedules, and the Schedule 201 TOU adder/credit. Footnote 2 of that sheet excludes System Benefits (Sch. 291, 0.065¢/kWh), Energy Trust (Sch. 292, 1.166¢/kWh), the 1.5% public-purpose charge, and the BPA residential/small-farm credit (−1.331¢/kWh on the first 2,000 kWh). Adding 291+292 only would put off-peak near 11.94¢/kWh. There is no mid-peak period. Schedule 23 small non-residential TOU (also 5–9 p.m. on-peak) posts 11.298¢/26.408¢ for the first 3,000 kWh plus demand charges — not used here because the clean all-in TOU total is residential Schedule 4. Public DCFC: Pacific Power’s own Bend site (70 NW Newport Ave) is 47¢ on-peak / 30¢ off-peak on ChargePoint, matching Schedule 60; Electrify America at Walmart Bend (20120 SW Pinebrook Blvd) has been posting about $0.56/kWh 10 a.m.–10 p.m. and $0.40/kWh overnight (third-party site listing); Tesla Supercharger public peak in Bend has been listed near $0.69/kWh. Schedule 4/5 TOU adders and hours are also on https://www.pacificpower.net/content/dam/pcorp/documents/en/pacificpower/rates-regulation/oregon/tariffs/rates/201_Net_Power_Costs_Cost-Based_Supply_Service.pdf and Schedule 4 at …/004_Residential_Service_Delivery_Service.pdf.", "demand": "CITY: Bend, OR. visitors_year is calendar year 2025 overnight person-trips from Dean Runyan/Visit Bend (preliminary, March 2026)—not day visitors, which that report explicitly does not volume-count. A City of Bend FY27 Visit Bend slide that says '2 million annual overnight visitors' is person-nights (~3.42 million in 2025), not person-trips; using it would double-count. visitor_party_size and visitor_nights_avg are taken from the same 2025 table so they cannot drift off the visitor year. trip_mi_* and night_share are estimates: Deschutes all-mode distances (Feb 2022 BTS via Bend MPO) and CET's 7 p.m. last bus / no Sunday service are the local facts they step down on, together with ACS no-vehicle 0.0485, mean commute 16.3 min, taxi/ride-hail commute 0.0015, transit commute 0.0024, and WFH 0.2478. Uber 11-minute Bend average and RDM at 19 miles are the operator checks on trip length. rides_reported=0 is an audited absence, not a claim of zero rides. Did not produce ridehail_ever_share, ridehail_month_share, trips_per_user_month, visitor_trips_per_stay, rides_per_day, or adult_share.", "geography": "Airport (RDM) is in Redmond, 15.7 miles from Bend centre — not a Bend district. The airport's '30 daily flights' is the operator's published count (consistent with ~15 departures plus 15 arrivals given 601,152 CY2024 boardings); destinations copied from the same homepage, including seasonal DFW. Hospital 292 is the figure St. Charles and Oregon's 2024 filing use (licensed/published beds, not a staffed-census snapshot). COCC 5,863 is Oregon HECC fall 2025 headcount for the whole district, so college_enrollment 7,247 overstates Bend-campus-only demand. City of Bend neighborhood-districts page is behind Cloudflare; the 13 official districts were read from allthingsbend.org, which lists them and links the city map. Old Mill '2,500+ jobs' is Wikipedia (secondary). Equivalent radius 3.35 mi understates the N–S length of the built-up area.", "costs": "Oregon never enacted statewide TNC liability limits; Bend municipal code is what binds a TNC or taxi here. The $2,300 TNC fee is a company license, not a per-car charge. Ordinary ODOT plates are extra ($126–$136 for two years on a typical ICE passenger car: https://www.oregon.gov/odot/dmv/pages/fees/vehicle.aspx). Parking $40 is the downtown garage monthly permit; cheaper $20 value lots and $30 basic permits exist, and on-street downtown remains 2-hour free."}, "gaps": ["visitor_party_size: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitors_year', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "visitor_nights_avg: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitors_year', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "visitor_air_arrival_share: downgraded to an estimate because 'visitors_year', which it is derived from, lost its citation", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 29, "derived": 31, "estimated": 20}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 29, "primary": 18, "secondary": 11, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 51, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 18, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_alternatives_note", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. 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city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 43, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 18, "citations_checked": 15, "citations_passed": 11, "citations_failed": 4, "primary": 0, "secondary": 11, "derived_downgraded": 3, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. 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"url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://industry.visitbend.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2025p-Travel-Impact-Report-Bend-2026-03-27.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the digits 978,600 appear near 'overnight' but on a different row -- that is a neighbouring entry in the same table, not this city's figure)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://flyrdm.com/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 7 of the 8 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://stcharleshealthcare.org/careers/CST-Careers", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://bend.municipal.codes/BC/7.35.040", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://bendoregon.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/3457-Resolution.pdf", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://bendoregon.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/3457-Resolution.pdf", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 2036.6}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "bend-or", "searches_charged": 112, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 88, "calls_made": 9, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 4, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 112, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.18, "draws": [0.16, 0.15, 0.22, 0.18, 0.18], "min": 0.15, "max": 0.22, "spread_x": 1.47}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.8, "draws": [0.85, 0.8, 1.2, 0.75, 0.7], "min": 0.7, "max": 1.2, "spread_x": 1.71}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.2, "draws": [2.3, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.4], "min": 2.2, "max": 2.4, "spread_x": 1.09}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [974, 2774]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked in order: (1) STATE — Oregon has no Nevada-style taxicab authority posting trip counts. ODOT monthly indicators cover VMT, fatalities, fuel, and statewide transit rides per capita, not TNC/taxi trips; the Oregon PUC statistics book is utilities; OHA's TNC material is a Medicaid NEMT pilot, not Bend ride-hail volume. (2) CITY/COUNTY — Bend Code 7.35 and the City of Bend Vehicle for Hire license page require TNCs to keep trip records for a year and allow a data-sharing agreement, but the license page and city/county open data do not publish those counts. (3) AIRPORT — flyrdm.com lists Uber and Lyft pickup at curbside north of the terminal and names taxi/shuttle firms, but publishes no TNC pickup totals (BTS has RDM passenger counts, not ground-transport mode). (4) MPO — Bend MPO's Oregon Travel Study 2023–24 page still says results will be available in late spring 2026 and does not post a TNC trip total; the MPO trip-length page is BTS all-mode distances, not paid rides. (5) LOCAL REPORTING — The Bulletin and Central Oregon Daily cover Uber's 2017 launch, CET hours, and carless travel; none quote a Bend taxi/TNC trip count. Portland's ~8 million TNC+taxi trips in FY2025 is Portland only and is not used here.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 1458, "our_range_per_day": [364, 5831]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": false, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Bend, 29 are published figures, 31 are worked out from published figures, and 20 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [44.056683, -121.307991], "geoid": "4105800", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Bend city", "population": 107342, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Deschutes County", "population": 213072, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 13, "dcfc_ports": 41, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "PACIFIC POWER BEND DCFC 4", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.4, "open_date": "2020-02-27"}, {"name": "PACIFIC POWER BEND DCFC 3", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.4, "open_date": "2021-01-27"}, {"name": "PACIFIC POWER BEND DCFC 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.4, "open_date": "2021-01-27"}, {"name": "PACIFIC POWER BEND DCFC 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.4, "open_date": "2021-01-27"}, {"name": "Bend, OR - Southwest Industrial Way - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 0.6, "open_date": "2023-06-22"}, {"name": "Kendall Ford of Bend", "network": "Blink Network", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO TESLA", "miles": 1.0, "open_date": "2025-05-30"}, {"name": "Bend, OR - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 1.5, "open_date": "2016-06-17"}, {"name": "TS&S Ford", "network": "Blink Network", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.8, "open_date": "2026-07-16"}, {"name": "THB TEAM HYUNDAI 1", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 1.9, "open_date": "2024-05-12"}, {"name": "Walmart 2075 (Bend, OR)", "network": "Electrify America", "ports": 4, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2021-05-27"}, {"name": "AAA OR ID AAA-BND3", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2025-06-05"}, {"name": "AAA OR ID AAA-BND2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 2.4, "open_date": "2025-06-05"}, {"name": "Tumalo, OR", "network": "RIVIAN_ADVENTURE", "ports": 6, "connectors": "J1772COMBO", "miles": 6.4, "open_date": "2025-09-11"}], "l2_sites": 51, "l2_ports": 89, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "PACIFIC POWER BEND DCFC 2", "network": "ChargePoint Network", "ports": 1, "connectors": "CHADEMO J1772COMBO", "miles": 0.4, "city": "Bend", "state": "OR"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 6, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 2, "claims": 8, "records_touched": 7, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "ridehail_present", "field": "value", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code RDM", "claim_text": "Uber and Lyft operate in Bend and at Redmond Airport (RDM);", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists RDM: Roberts Field, Redmond OR, 601,152 CY2024 enplanements", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Hospital beds 292 (St.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "The health system itself publishes 292 beds;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "601,152 passengers or enplanements", "claim_text": "601,152 boardings at RDM in calendar 2024 (FAA, a federal file) divided by 978,600 visitors a year = 0.614.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note gives 601,152; FAA CY2024 enplanements for RDM = 601,152 -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "107,342 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 107,342 people x 0.8072 adults = 86,646 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 107,342; the Census file says Bend city 107,342 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "ChargePoint fast charging here", "claim_text": "Public DCFC: Pacific Power’s own Bend site (70 NW Newport Ave) is 47¢ on-peak / 30¢ off-peak on ChargePoint, matching Schedule 60;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists PACIFIC POWER BEND DCFC 4 (ChargePoint Network, 1 fast ports, 0.4 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Tesla Supercharger public peak in Bend has been listed near $0.69/kWh.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Bend, OR - Southwest Industrial Way - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 0.6 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code RDM", "claim_text": "Airport (RDM) is in Redmond, 15.7 miles from Bend centre — not a Bend district.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA enplanement file lists RDM: Roberts Field, Redmond OR, 601,152 CY2024 enplanements", "tolerance": "exact code"}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 4, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 1, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 3, "passes_the_same_test_now": 1, "still_fails_the_same_test": 2, "could_not_be_read_today": 1}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "insurance_min_liability", "url": "https://bend.municipal.codes/BC/7.35.040", "url_today": "blocked -- the host refuses our client", "detail_today": "HTTP 403 on every one of 4 attempts", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": null, "same_test_detail": "the page could not be read today either"}, {"record": "parking_month", "url": "https://bendoregon.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/3457-Resolution.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 40 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}, {"record": "registration_note", "url": "https://bendoregon.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/3457-Resolution.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "passes", "same_test_detail": "the page carries 8 of the 9 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "visitors_year", "url": "https://industry.visitbend.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2025p-Travel-Impact-Report-Bend-2026-03-27.pdf", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the digits 978,600 appear near 'overnight' but on a different row -- that is a neighbouring entry in the same table, not this city's figure)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the digits 978,600 appear, but the record gave no words naming what they measure, so there is no way to tell this figure from any other number on the page"}]}}, "ok": true}