{"id": "alturas-ca", "label": "Alturas, CA", "city": "Alturas", "state": "CA", "county": "Modoc County", "geography": "single-radius town", "population": 2634, "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 28, "derived": 30, "estimated": 22}, "gaps": 3, "citations": {"checked": 13, "passed": 11, "failed": 2}, "research_cost_usd": 0.0, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Alturas, 28 are published figures, 30 are worked out from published figures, and 22 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "pack": {"id": "alturas-ca", "city": "Alturas", "state": "CA", "label": "Alturas, CA", "county": "Modoc County", "geography_type": "single-radius town", "researched_on": "2026-09-09", "pipeline_version": "2.1.0", "model": "grok-4.6", "records": [{"id": "population", "label": "People living here", "value": 2634, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimate for Alturas city, California.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, Subcounty Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 0601444 -- Alturas city, California"}, "range": [1317, 5268], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "label": "How big the city is", "value": 2.839, "unit": "sq mi", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Census Bureau Gazetteer land area for Alturas city. Water is excluded.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau Gazetteer", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_06.txt", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEOID 0601444 -- Alturas city"}, "range": [1.4, 5.7], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "density", "label": "People per square mile", "value": 928, "unit": "people/sq mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "How tightly packed the town is, which is what decides how far an average trip runs and how much empty driving there is between fares.", "math": "2,634 residents divided by 2.839 square miles of land = 928 people per square mile.", "source": null, "range": [371, 2320], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "metro_population", "label": "People in the surrounding county", "value": 8426, "unit": "people", "basis": "sourced", "why": "US Census Bureau vintage 2025 estimate for Modoc County, California. This is the pool a fleet actually draws on, because trips do not stop at the city line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 06049 -- Modoc County, California"}, "range": [4213, 16852], "editable": true, "theme": "people", "bulk": true}, {"id": "airport_name", "label": "Airport name", "value": "Redding Regional", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest commercial service airport to this city in the FAA's own traffic file, matched by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city rather than by name.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDD -- Redding Regional, Redding CA"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_code", "label": "Airport code", "value": "RDD", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The FAA location identifier, which is the key this pack joins the traffic file and the airport coordinate file on.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDD -- Redding Regional, Redding CA"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "label": "Passengers boarding a year", "value": 88676, "unit": "enplanements/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "FAA calendar year 2024 ENPLANEMENTS -- passengers BOARDING, which is about half of the arrivals-plus-departures figure an airport press release quotes. This is the federal count, read out of the FAA's own file.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "FAA, CY2024 Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) Data for U.S. Airports", "date": "CY2024", "url": "https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "Locid RDD -- Redding Regional, Redding CA"}, "range": [44338, 177352], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "label": "Change in airport traffic, 2023 to 2024", "value": 1.1, "unit": "%", "basis": "derived", "why": "Whether the airport is growing or shrinking, which says more about the direction of airport ride demand than the level does.", "math": "FAA CY2024 enplanements 88,676 against CY2023 87,670, both from the same file (https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/arp-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx): (88,676 - 87,670) / 87,670 = 1.1%.", "source": null, "range": [-50, 50], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "label": "Airport distance from the city centre", "value": 113.3, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "STRAIGHT-LINE miles from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city to the FAA's published coordinate for the airport. A road trip is longer -- there is no routing engine here and we do not pretend there is -- so treat this as the floor.", "math": "Great-circle distance between the city's Census internal point (41.489136, -120.551286, from the Census Gazetteer place file) and the FAA's airport coordinate (40.508990, -122.293399, from https://services6.arcgis.com/ssFJjBXIUyZDrSYZ/arcgis/rest/services/US_Airport/FeatureServer/0) = 113.3 miles. Straight line, not road miles.", "source": null, "range": [56.7, 283.3], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "airport"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "label": "Average price of electricity in this state", "value": 0.3474, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The EIA's own average price to residential customers across California in June 2026. This is the all-in price actually billed, averaged over every utility in the state -- not a tariff line.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "California, June 2026"}, "range": [0.174, 0.695], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "label": "Average business electricity price in this state", "value": 0.2733, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA table, commercial sector. A depot charging cars overnight is billed on a commercial tariff, not a residential one, so this is usually the closer comparison.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A", "date": "June 2026", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "California, June 2026"}, "range": [0.137, 0.547], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "label": "Average electricity price this year so far", "value": 0.3317, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The same EIA series averaged across the year to date rather than a single month. A tool that models a whole season should lean on this one: a single month can be 5% off the year in either direction, and June 2026 YTD is a season, not a day.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (year to date)", "date": "June 2026 YTD", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_b.xlsx", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "California, June 2026 YTD"}, "range": [0.166, 0.663], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility", "label": "Electric utility", "value": "Pacific Gas & Electric Co.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The electric utility whose EIA-861 service territory includes Modoc County, CA -- the same county this city sits in. Matched on the county, not on the utility's trading name. 4 utilities file a service territory in this county; this is the largest by customers and the others are listed in power_utility_alternatives.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (#14328), Modoc County County rows, CA"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_alternatives", "label": "Other utilities in this county", "value": "PacifiCorp (36,273 customers); Surprise Valley Electrification (2,785 customers); WAPA-- Western Area Power Administration (0 customers)", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Every other utility whose EIA-861 service territory covers this county. A city on the edge of a county can be on any of them, so the choice is shown rather than hidden.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 2024, service territory and sales to ultimate customers", "date": "2024", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/zip/f8612024.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (#14328), Modoc County County rows, CA"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate", "label": "What this utility's residential customers pay on average", "value": 0.3962, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "Revenue divided by sales for Pacific Gas & Electric Co., out of the EIA's own annual file. Bundled service only: a delivery-only row charges a delivery fee against the full kilowatt-hours and folding it in produces a rate nobody is billed.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Pacific Gas & Electric Co.: residential revenue of $4,412,805.0 thousand against 11,138,420 MWh sold. (4,412,805.0 x 1,000 dollars) / (11,138,420 x 1,000 kWh) = $0.3962 a kWh. This is the utility's own average across its whole residential class -- it is not a tariff, and a customer on a particular rate schedule will pay more or less.", "source": null, "range": [0.198, 0.792], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_utility_rate_commercial", "label": "What this utility's business customers pay on average", "value": 0.3946, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "derived", "why": "The same calculation for the commercial class, which is the one a leased bay with a charger would be billed on.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Pacific Gas & Electric Co.: commercial revenue of $3,219,777.0 thousand against 8,159,051 MWh sold, so $0.3946 a kWh.", "source": null, "range": [0.197, 0.789], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "power_supply_choice_share", "label": "Share of local homes buying power from someone else", "value": 0.632, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "In a restructured state the wires company delivers to customers who bought their energy from a competing supplier. Where this is high, the utility's own average rate describes only the customers who stayed with it, and shopping around is a real lever for an operator here.", "math": "Form EIA-861 2024 for Pacific Gas & Electric Co.: 3,190,681 residential customers on delivery-only service against 1,856,780 on bundled service; 3,190,681 / (3,190,681 + 1,856,780) = 63.2%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "power"}, {"id": "climate_station", "label": "Weather station these figures come from", "value": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 miles from the city centre", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The nearest NOAA station with a complete thirty-year record, chosen by distance from the Census Bureau's internal point for the city. 0 nearer station(s) were skipped because they measure rainfall but not temperature.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00040161", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00040161.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 mi from the city centre"}, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature over the year", "value": 48.4, "unit": "F", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean of the twelve monthly normals, 1991-2020.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00040161: the twelve MLY-TAVG-NORMAL values averaged = 48.4F.", "source": null, "range": [33.4, 63.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the coldest month", "value": 32.0, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "December is the coldest month here on the 1991-2020 normals. Cold is what puts range into a battery pack and puts people into a car instead of on a bike.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00040161", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00040161.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [17.0, 47.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "label": "Average temperature in the hottest month", "value": 68.0, "unit": "F", "basis": "sourced", "why": "July is the hottest month here on the 1991-2020 normals.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00040161", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00040161.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [53.0, 83.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "precip_year_in", "label": "Rain and melted snow in a year", "value": 11.74, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "The twelve monthly precipitation normals added up. Wet weather is one of the few things that reliably lifts ride-hail demand.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 monthly normals for station USC00040161: the twelve MLY-PRCP-NORMAL values summed = 11.74 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [5.9, 21.1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "wet_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable rain", "value": 77.4, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "Days with at least a hundredth of an inch. The COUNT of wet days moves demand more than the total depth does -- one downpour is one busy evening.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station USC00040161: the twelve MLY-PRCP-AVGNDS-GE001HI values summed = 77.4 days a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 250], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_year_in", "label": "Snow in a year", "value": 22.2, "unit": "in/year", "basis": "derived", "why": "From station USC00041614, 19.5 miles away -- NOT the temperature station above. Fewer stations report snowfall than report temperature, so the nearest one that does is used and named rather than the figure being written down as zero.", "math": "NOAA 1991-2020 normals for station CEDARVILLE, CA US (USC00041614), 19.5 miles from the city centre: the twelve MLY-SNOW-NORMAL values summed = 22.2 inches a year.", "source": null, "range": [0, 44], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "snow_days_year", "label": "Days a year with measurable snow", "value": 9.1, "unit": "days/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Days with at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall, from the same station as the annual total.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, station USC00041614", "date": "1991-2020", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/normals-monthly/1991-2020/access/USC00041614.csv", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "CEDARVILLE, CA US (USC00041614), 19.5 mi from the city centre"}, "range": [0, 200], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "weather"}, {"id": "adult_share", "label": "Share of residents who are adults", "value": 0.8094, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Residents 18 and over in Alturas, CA, from the Census Bureau's own age table. This is the first link in the rides-a-day chain, so it is worth having from the primary file rather than a re-publication of it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B01001 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: total population 2,681, of whom 511 are under 18 (the eight under-18 age bands for males and females). (2,681 - 511) / 2,681 = 0.8094.", "source": null, "range": [0.55, 0.95], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "label": "What a household here earns in a year", "value": 59896, "unit": "$/year", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median household income in Alturas, CA. It is the ceiling on what a ride can be priced at before people walk, and it is published for every city in the country.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, table B19013", "date": "2020-2024", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-07", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "GEO_ID 1600000US0601444, B19013_E001"}, "range": [29948, 119792], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "label": "Share of households with no car", "value": 0.1258, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Households in Alturas, CA with no vehicle available. This is the strongest published local signal there is for who has to hire a ride, and it is the one number in this pack that most directly separates a town where everyone drives from one where a fleet has a market.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25044 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: 1,073 occupied households, of which 92 owner-occupied (B25044_E003) and 43 renter-occupied (B25044_E010) have no vehicle available. (92 + 43) / 1,073 = 0.1258, or 12.6%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 0.6], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "label": "Share who drive to work alone", "value": 0.6446, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "How car-shaped the town is. A place where four in five drive alone is one where a ride is a substitute for a car nobody wants to give up.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: 662 of 1,027 workers 16 and over (B08301_E003 / B08301_E001) = 0.6446, or 64.46%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_transit_share", "label": "Share who take public transport to work", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The competition, and the floor under demand when it stops running at night.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: 0 of 1,027 workers 16 and over (B08301_E010 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "label": "Share who commute by taxi or ride-hail", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The Census counts this line explicitly. It is a small number everywhere, and it is the only published local measurement of ride-hail use there is.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: 0 of 1,027 workers 16 and over (B08301_E016 / B08301_E001) = 0.0000, or 0.00%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "commute_wfh_share", "label": "Share who work from home", "value": 0.0701, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "Workers who make no commute trip at all, which takes the top off weekday morning demand.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B08301 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: 72 of 1,027 workers 16 and over (B08301_E021 / B08301_E001) = 0.0701, or 7.01%.", "source": null, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "mean_commute_minutes", "label": "How long the average commute takes", "value": 18.5, "unit": "minutes", "basis": "derived", "why": "The mean one-way journey to work in Alturas, CA. It is the best published proxy for how far a typical local trip runs, and the trip-length estimate should be argued against it.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year tables B08013 and B08303 for GEO_ID 1600000US0601444: 17,655 aggregate minutes of travel to work divided by 955 workers who did not work from home = 18.5 minutes.", "source": null, "range": [5, 60], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "people"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "label": "What a car cleaner is paid here", "value": 18.03, "unit": "$/hour", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The median hourly wage for Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (occupation 53-7061) in North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own May 2024 estimates. This is the single biggest component of every cleaning price below, and it is published for every metropolitan AND non-metropolitan area in the country -- which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure here and a web search for a local detailer gets nothing.", "math": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, occupation 53-7061, area area 'North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area', 220 people employed in it: median hourly wage $18.03. The national median for the same occupation is $16.96, so this town's labour index is 18.03 / 16.96 = 1.063.", "source": {"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "read directly out of the federal bulk file at this URL, matched on a key rather than on a name", "row_key": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 0600007 -- North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area"}, "range": [10.82, 32.45], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 18.03, "unit": "$/hour", "note": "occupation 53-7061, North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area"}], "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "labour_note", "label": "What hand work costs here", "value": "Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment in North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area are paid a median of $18.03 an hour (BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061, 220 employed). The national median for the same job is $16.96, so hand work here costs 106% of what it costs nationally.", "unit": "", "basis": "derived", "why": "The wage that scales every cleaning price below. It is published for every metropolitan and non-metropolitan area in the country, which is why a town of three thousand people gets a real figure where a web search for a local detailer's rate gets nothing.", "math": "Read out of the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics May 2024 bulk files, occupation 53-7061, at the area level. No search was made for it.", "source": null, "range": null, "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_cleaner_wage"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "label": "How this town's labour costs compare with the country", "value": 1.063, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Everything a person does by hand costs roughly what a person costs here. This one ratio scales every cleaning price in the pack, and it is measured rather than guessed.", "math": "BLS May 2024, occupation 53-7061 (Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment): the area figure for 'North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area' is $18.03 an hour against $16.96 nationally, so 18.03 / 16.96 = 1.063. This is a genuine local labour market estimate.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "label": "How this town's property costs compare with the country", "value": 0.59, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "Rent is the other half of a local cost. There is no published rent for small commercial bays anywhere in the country, so the pack uses the one property price that IS published for 32,330 places -- what people pay to rent a home here against what they pay nationally. It is housing, not industrial space, and it is used as a proxy on purpose rather than by accident.", "math": "ACS 2020-2024 5-year table B25064, median gross rent: $833 a month in Alturas, CA (place level) against $1,413 for the United States from the same table (GEO_ID 0100000US), so 833 / 1413 = 0.590.", "source": null, "range": [0.2, 3.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "theme": "costs"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "label": "A quick interior wipe between shifts", "value": 37, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a quick contracted interior wipe-down in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a minor mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $35.00, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $25 for minor 'small food/beverage spills, scuff marks, mud, dirt, or animal fur in the car'.\n  Uber publishes $30 to $60 for a minor mess: 'spills or messes that require extensive cleaning' -- centre $45.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($25 + $45.00) / 2 = $35.00.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $35.00 x labour index 1.063 = $37.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [15, 93], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 25.0, "unit": "$", "note": "minor damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [30.0, 60.0], "unit": "$", "note": "minor mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "wipe_cost_contract"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "label": "A full interior clean", "value": 77, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a full interior detail in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a moderate mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $72.50, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $75 for moderate 'biowaste outside of the car'.\n  Uber publishes $55 to $85 for a moderate mess: 'larger contained spills or biological messes that require focused cleaning, time, and specialized supplies' -- centre $70.00.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($75 + $70.00) / 2 = $72.50.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $72.50 x labour index 1.063 = $77.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [31, 193], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 75.0, "unit": "$", "note": "moderate damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [55.0, 85.0], "unit": "$", "note": "moderate mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "deep_clean_cost"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "label": "A biohazard clean-out", "value": 161, "unit": "$", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes an emergency biohazard clean-out in a town this size, because it is a manual service: keeping a price list current is work, and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. The national half of it is what Uber and Lyft themselves pay a driver for a severe mess -- published, national, and kept current because money moves on it every day.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE $151.25, then scaled to this town.\n  Lyft publishes a flat $150 for severe 'large biowaste spills that would require specialized cleaning'.\n  Uber publishes $80 to $225 for a severe mess: 'substantial messes involving large amounts of bodily fluids or difficult-to-clean matter across multiple areas' -- centre $152.50.\n  Average of the two operators' central values: ($150 + $152.50) / 2 = $151.25.\n  Both platforms pay the fee straight to the driver, and Uber requires an itemised receipt from a cleaning service for a professional claim, so these tiers are the platforms' own published view of what such a clean costs.\n  LOCAL STEP: $151.25 x labour index 1.063 = $161.\n  DIRECTION OF ERROR, stated rather than hidden: a platform fee prices a MESS, not a booked clean, so it brackets the right number rather than being it. Neither page carries a publication date; both were read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [64, 402], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_labour_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Lyft, damage fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/all/articles/115012927367-I-was-charged-a-damage-fee", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 150.0, "unit": "$", "note": "severe damage"}, {"name": "Uber, driver cleaning fee policy", "date": null, "url": "https://help.uber.com/en/riders/article/uber-driver-cleaning-fee-policy?nodeId=2dba264f-edb9-4ae7-8186-68dd399874f0", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": [80.0, 225.0], "unit": "$", "note": "severe mess"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "bio_contractor_cost"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "label": "A small commercial bay, per month", "value": 752, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes what a 1,500 square foot bay lets for in a town this size, because small commercial bays let privately, one handshake at a time, and no index tracks them. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026 reports an overall US industrial asking rent of $10.20 a square foot a year, NNN. 1,500 square feet x $10.20 = $15,300 a year = $1,275.00 a month nationally.\n  LOCAL STEP: $1,275.00 x rent index 0.590 = $752 a month.\n  TWO WAYS THIS IS LOW, said rather than hidden: the national figure is the overall industrial average, dominated by large logistics buildings, and a 1,500 square foot service bay asks MORE per square foot than a 500,000 square foot warehouse -- no premium is applied because no published figure supports one. And NNN means taxes, insurance and common-area costs are on top of this. Treat it as a floor. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [301, 2255], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["local_rent_index"], "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat United States Industrial Q1 2026", "date": "2026-Q1", "url": "https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/national/q12026usindustrialmarketbeat.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 10.2, "unit": "$/sq ft/year", "note": "overall US industrial asking rent, NNN"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "depot_bay_rent"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "label": "Insurance on the first car", "value": 327, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "This is a derivation, not a local quote: a national published figure scaled by a published local index. Nobody publishes a price for commercial for-hire cover on a single car in a town this size, because a premium is quoted to a particular operator on particular facts, and no insurer publishes a rate table for for-hire cars. A real quote from a real local supplier beats this number, and it is exactly what you should type over it. What stands in for it is general commercial auto adjusted upward for for-hire use, and that adjustment is our judgement, not a published figure.", "math": "NATIONAL BASELINE: Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost (updated 2026-03-04) reports a median of $245 a month for commercial auto across 100,000 small-business policyholders, calculated as 'the median cost of policies sold by leading insurance carriers to Insureon's small business customers'.\n  FOR-HIRE UPLIFT x1.40 -- THIS IS OUR JUDGEMENT, NOT A PUBLISHED FIGURE. Progressive publish their own 2025 new-policy premium per power unit by class: business auto $276 a month against for-hire specialty truck $734 and for-hire transport truck $926, so their for-hire classes run 2.7 to 3.4 times general business auto. Those classes are TRUCKS; a for-hire passenger car sits between a tradesman's van and a truck, and 1.40 is a conservative reading of that gap.\n  STATE STEP: NAIC 2023 average auto expenditure is $1,223.16 in CA against $1,281.60 countrywide, so the state index is 1223.16 / 1281.60 = 0.954. It is PERSONAL auto -- nobody publishes commercial for-hire premiums by state -- but what it measures is the part that genuinely varies between states: the loss environment, the tort and rate-filing regime, the uninsured rate and the minimum limits.\n  $245 x 1.40 x 0.954 = $327 a month. This is the number in the pack most worth replacing with a real quote. Read on 2026-09-09.", "source": null, "range": [131, 981], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "bulk": true, "derived_from": [{"name": "Insureon, Commercial auto insurance cost", "date": "2026-03-04", "url": "https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/commercial-auto/cost", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 245.0, "unit": "$/month", "note": "median commercial auto, small business"}, {"name": "Progressive Commercial, average commercial auto cost by business type", "date": "2025", "url": "https://www.progressivecommercial.com/commercial-auto-insurance/commercial-auto-cost/", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "evidence for the direction and rough size of a for-hire uplift"}, {"name": "National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 2023 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, Table 4", "date": "2025-06", "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/aut-db_1.pdf", "read_on": "2026-09-09", "value": 1223.16, "unit": "$/year", "note": "CA average expenditure per insured vehicle, personal auto"}], "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_base"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "label": "Insurance on each car after the first", "value": 278, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "derived", "why": "What each additional vehicle adds to the premium. Lower than the first car because a fleet policy spreads the administrative part of a premium across the vehicles while the risk part scales with them -- which is part of why growing is the way out of the trap.", "math": "$327 (the first car, above) x 0.85 = $278. NOBODY PUBLISHES THAT SPLIT: the 0.85 is ours, and it is the reason a second car is cheaper to run than the first.", "source": null, "range": [111, 834], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["insurance_base_month"], "bulk": true, "theme": "costs", "game_id": "insurance_per_car"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Overnight electricity", "value": 0.22558, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "PG&E Schedule EV2-A total bundled off-peak energy rate (generation + delivery + riders), year-round; midnight–06:00 sits entirely inside off-peak (midnight–3 p.m. every day). Excludes the daily base services charge. A small operator with an EV on a residential meter can take this rate everywhere PG&E serves, including Alturas. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "PG&E Electric Schedule EV2", "date": "2026-06", "url": "https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV2%20(Sch).pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "found 0.22558 on the same line as 'summer usage'"}, "range": [0.12, 0.4], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_offpeak"}, {"id": "power_mid", "theme": "power", "label": "Daytime electricity", "value": 0.22558, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Same EV2-A total bundled off-peak rate: PG&E does not split midnight–3 p.m., so roughly 06:00–16:00 is billed at off-peak except the last hour. 3–4 p.m. is partial-peak ($0.42760 summer / $0.39428 winter), so this slightly understates a strict 6 a.m.–4 p.m. average. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "PG&E Electric Schedule EV2", "date": "2026-06", "url": "https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV2%20(Sch).pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.12, 0.45], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_mid"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "theme": "power", "label": "Evening electricity", "value": 0.53809, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "EV2-A summer total bundled peak (4–9 p.m. every day, June 1–September 30). The requested 16:00–midnight window also includes 9 p.m.–midnight partial-peak ($0.42760 summer / $0.39428 winter), and winter peak is $0.41099, so this is the high end of evening cost, not a year-round 4 p.m.–midnight average. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "PG&E Electric Schedule EV2", "date": "2026-06", "url": "https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV2%20(Sch).pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.3, 0.7], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "power_onpeak"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "theme": "power", "label": "Public DC fast charging", "value": 0.62, "unit": "$/kWh", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Public (non-member) price at the Tesla Supercharger at Holiday Market, 1200 West 12th Street — the only public DCFC in Alturas (8 stalls, up to 250 kW, 24/7). Tesla members pay $0.44/kWh at the same site. Figure is from DCFC Tracker, which reads Tesla’s public price feed; Tesla’s own location page confirms the site but does not print a $/kWh in HTML. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "DCFC Tracker (Tesla Alturas Supercharger)", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://dcfctracker.com/stations/190479", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.35, 0.85], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "game_id": "supercharger_kwh", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "8 fast-charging stalls (Tesla Supercharger)", "federal": "the note counts 8 stalls; the snapshot lists Alturas, CA - Tesla Supercharger with 8 fast ports 0.6 mi from the town center (TESLA)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "theme": "power", "label": "Time-of-use tariff available", "value": "Yes: EV2-A (residential EV home charging) and BEV-1 (commercial separately metered EV); also E-TOU-C and E-TOU-D", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "PG&E offers takeable TOU plans in Alturas. EV2-A is the residential overnight-charging plan (off-peak midnight–3 p.m.). BEV-1 is the small commercial EV plan (off-peak 9 p.m.–9 a.m., super off-peak 9 a.m.–2 p.m., peak 4–9 p.m., plus a kW subscription). E-TOU-C (peak 4–9 p.m. every day) and E-TOU-D (peak 5–8 p.m. weekdays) are available without an EV. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "PG&E Electric Vehicle Rate Plans", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-plans/electric-vehicles.html", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 7 of the 10 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "theme": "demand", "label": "Ride-hail and taxi supply", "value": "No local taxi or TNC. Only distant taxis from Redding and Yreka, at high fees; Uber and Lyft do not list Alturas.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The county RTPA's 2024 Short Range Transit Plan is the local operator survey of private providers: it names ABC Taxi (Redding) and Road Runner (Yreka) as the only taxis that will come to Alturas, both at high fees because of the drive, and it discusses Uber/Lyft only as technology for a future public microtransit idea—not as services that run here. Uber's California city list and Lyft's city list omit Alturas; CPUC Access for All shows $0 TNC fees for Modoc. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Modoc County Transportation Commission, 2024 Short Range Transit Plan (LSC)", "date": "2025-04", "url": "https://modoctransportation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Modoc-SRTP-2024-Final.pdf", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "transit_note", "theme": "demand", "label": "Public bus evenings and weekends", "value": "Sage Stage local dial-a-ride runs Monday–Friday only; last in-town drop-off 5:15 p.m. No weekend or evening bus. Intercity to Reno, Redding, and Klamath Falls is weekday reservation-only.", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "This is the operator's own schedule. No evening or weekend bus is why some bar, casino, and hospital-shift trips that would be a bus ride in a larger town have to go by car here. Census ACS already records 0.0 of workers commuting by public transport. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Sage Stage (Modoc Transportation Agency)", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://sagestage.com/local-bus/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [0, 1], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average paid trip length", "value": 3.2, "unit": "miles", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Nobody publishes paid-trip length for Alturas. The strongest local fact is the city's own land area (2.839 sq mi), which makes a typical in-town ride about 1–2 miles; a minority of paid trips go out to the casino (~2 mi), the airport (1.2 mi), Modoc Estates, or California Pines (Sage Stage Zone 3, 5–10 mi).", "math": "Treat the city as a ~1.7-mile-wide square (sqrt of 2.839). Weight 70% in-town errands at 1.5 mi, 15% 2–5 mi (casino, airport, Modoc Estates), 10% 5–10 mi (California Pines), 5% over 10 mi (Cedarville ~22 mi, Canby ~18 mi): 0.70×1.5 + 0.15×3.5 + 0.10×7.5 + 0.05×18 = 3.225, rounded to 3.2. Stepped down from the 2017 NHTS urban taxicab mean of 5.7 miles because that sample was cities and trips up to 75 miles; Alturas is 2 miles across. The ACS mean commute of 18.5 minutes is work travel that often leaves town and is not the paid-trip length. 12.58% of households have no vehicle, so the local paid-trip mix is grocery, clinic, and casino more than 20-mile hauls. Likely conservative if hunters book long airport/Reno runs; likely high if almost all paid trips stay inside city limits.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 12.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips under 3 miles", "value": 0.7, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Most paid demand that could exist here is in-town: grocery, clinic, courthouse, Niles Saloon, hospital, and the casino just outside city limits (~1.8 mi). The city is only ~2 miles across, so a trip under 3 miles is the default.", "math": "Same geography weights as trip_mi_avg: 70% in-town at 1.5 mi are all under 3 miles; the 15% 2–5 mi band is split, so about 70% of all paid trips fall under 3 miles. Stepped down from a national TNC short-trip share (urban cores often 50–60% under 3 miles) ON the town's 2.839 sq mi land area, which is much smaller than those cores. 12.58% no-vehicle households generate short essential trips, not 10-mile ones. Likely high if a TNC ever served Reno/Redding airport runs.", "source": null, "range": [0.4, 0.9], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of trips over 10 miles", "value": 0.06, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Cedarville, Canby, Likely, and the Oregon line are 15–25 miles out; those are real trips but rare for a paid car when Sage Stage already runs weekday intercity coaches to Reno, Redding, and Klamath Falls.", "math": "From the trip_mi_avg weights, only the 5% tail is over 10 miles; bump to 0.06 to allow a few hunter/airport exceptions. Stepped down from national TNC long-trip shares ON land area (the city itself cannot produce a 10-mile in-town trip) and ON the 18.5-minute mean commute (a 10-mile ride at rural speeds is ~15–20 minutes, so some work trips could qualify, but ACS records 0.0 commuting by taxi). Likely high: Sage Stage already captures the Reno/Redding market on weekdays.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["trip_mi_avg"]}, {"id": "night_share", "theme": "demand", "label": "Share of demand 21:00–03:00", "value": 0.1, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Night demand here is a small casino, a couple of bars, and hospital shift changes—not college nights. Last Frontier Healthcare District (Modoc Medical Center) is a 50–99 employee employer with a 12-bed hospital plus SNF; Desert Rose Casino is open until midnight weekdays and 2 a.m. Friday–Saturday; there is no college campus in Alturas (nearest community college is Lassen in Susanville, 73 miles).", "math": "Six hours is 25% of the clock, but SFCTA's California TNC profile shows weekday late night as the trough, with only Friday growing a late-evening peak. Step that urban night share down ON: no college, a 50–99 person hospital rather than a regional medical center, and 0.0 public-transit commute (the people who would ride at 2 a.m. already own cars, except the 12.58% of households with no vehicle). Sage Stage's last drop-off is 5:15 p.m., so bar-close trips cannot shift to the bus—this pushes night share up a little for no-car households. 0.10 is between a dead rural night (~0.05) and a casino town (~0.15). Likely conservative if Friday–Saturday casino close is busier than it looks; likely high on Sunday–Thursday.", "source": null, "range": [0.03, 0.25], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "visitors_year", "theme": "demand", "label": "Annual visitors", "value": 42000, "unit": "visitors/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Calendar year 2023, the most recent complete year whose county table was actually opened. Visit California/Dean Runyan do not publish a person-trip count for Modoc or Alturas; they publish spending. This is not a tourist city—Wikipedia states tourism is not a major sector—so a resident-only chain would still be the bulk of any ride-hail demand, but ignoring motel traffic would understate it.", "math": "Dean Runyan for Visit California, CY 2023: Modoc visitor spending about $28 million, of which hotel/motel/STVR $6 million (21% of $28 million). Alturas is the only incorporated city and the lodging hub (city list: Trailside Inn 38 rooms, Super 8 48 rooms, plus Essex, Hacienda, Niles, Rim Rock, Wagon Wheel—about 180–200 rooms in town). 186 rooms × 42% occupancy × 365 ≈ 28,500 room-nights. At 1.9 people per room that is ~54,000 person-nights; at 1.5 nights per stay ≈ 36,000 overnight visitors to Alturas motels. Add ~6,000 day visitors who actually enter town (Modoc NWR FY2024 sightseeing 7,147 activity-participations, not unique city entries; NVUM Modoc NF ~146,000 visits are forest-wide and mostly never come into Alturas). Total 42,000 in 2023. Stepped down from county spending ON the fact that 74% of Modoc visitor spending is not hotel (day, camp, second home, gas) and much of that never generates a city ride. Likely conservative on US 395/SR 299 through-traffic stopping for gas; likely high if occupancy is below 42%. Do not reuse a later Visit California year without a Modoc person-trip table—statewide 2024/2025 reports were not opened at county visitor-count resolution.", "source": null, "range": [5000, 120000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average visiting party size", "value": 2.2, "unit": "people", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No Modoc CVB publishes party size. Outdoor-recreation parties on national forests in this region average 2.5 people (NVUM Pacific Southwest); Alturas motels also serve solo truckers and one-night highway travelers, which pulls the mean down. A party shares one car, so visitors are not rides.", "math": "Start from NVUM Region 5 average group size 2.5 (FY 2015–2019 regional table, not Modoc-specific). Step down ON the motel mix: Super 8 and Trailside Inn are highway properties, not trailhead lodges. Weight 60% recreation/hunting parties at 2.5 and 40% highway/solo at 1.7: 0.60×2.5 + 0.40×1.7 = 2.18, rounded to 2.2. Do not use 1 (visitors here do not typically travel alone). Likely high if more of the room nights are single truckers.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 4.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "theme": "demand", "label": "Average nights per visiting party", "value": 1.5, "unit": "nights", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No visitor authority publishes length of stay for Alturas. The motel stock is highway Super 8 / Trailside / Hacienda (typically one night) mixed with hunting and fishing parties (two to three nights).", "math": "Weight 55% one-night highway/business stays and 45% two-to-three-night outdoor trips at 2.2 nights: 0.55×1.0 + 0.45×2.2 = 1.54, rounded to 1.5. NVUM Region 5 reports 4.8 mean nights within 50 miles of the forest, but that is only for the half of forest visits that overnight near the forest—not the average Alturas visiting party, which includes many 1-night 395/299 stops. If day visitors are counted in visitors_year, blended nights would be lower (~1.2). Likely high for a pack that treats gas-stop day visitors as parties.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 4.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["visitors_year"]}, {"id": "rides_reported", "theme": "demand", "label": "Reported paid rides", "value": 0, "unit": "trips/year", "basis": "estimated", "why": "No published TNC or taxi trip count for Alturas or Modoc County. Zero is the auditable absence, not a claim that zero paid rides occur. FTA's 12,603 unlinked trips in 2024 are Sage Stage transit, not taxis or TNCs.", "math": "Checked the five places, in order. (1) State TNC/taxi authority: California has no Nevada-style taxicab authority; CPUC regulates TNCs. CPUC TNC Data Portal public 2021–2024 annual reports are suspended (D.25-10-062). CPUC Access for All 2026–27 NOFA, fees from Q3 2023 through Q2 2025, lists MODOC available funds as $— (zero), at $0.10 per completed TNC trip—consistent with essentially no originating TNC trips, but that is a fee ledger not a published trip total. PERB statewide TNC totals are California-wide, not Modoc. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: City of Alturas business list has lodging, no taxi; Modoc County code index has no TNC trip table. (3) Airport ground transportation: Alturas Municipal (AAT) is general aviation, 1 nm west of downtown, no commercial enplanements or TNC pickup stats. (4) MPO/RTPA travel survey: MCTC 2024 SRTP (opened) inventories private providers (ABC Taxi Redding, Road Runner Yreka) and Sage Stage ridership, and does not publish a TNC or taxi trip count for Alturas. 2025 RTP is listed but was not a trip-count table. (5) Local reporting: no news story quoting a Modoc/Alturas taxi or TNC trip total; neighboring Plumas/Lassen/Butte announced Uber/Lyft only in November 2025, and Modoc was not included. Therefore value = 0 trips/year as the audited absence.", "source": null, "range": [0, 50000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code AAT", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists AAT (Alturas Muni) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "geography_type", "theme": "geography", "label": "City shape", "value": "single-radius town", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Alturas is Modoc County's only incorporated city, about 2.84 square miles, with US 395 and CA-299 merging in one downtown; the 2020 census classifies 100% of residents as rural, so one car covers the whole built-up area.", "math": "Wikipedia (Census 2020) states Alturas is the only incorporated city in Modoc County, land area 2.84 sq mi, and '0.0% of residents lived in urban areas, while 100.0% lived in rural areas.' Highways 395 and 299 merge in town (same page). Equivalent circular radius from the settled 2.839 sq mi land area is 0.95 mi (see city_radius_mi). Sage Stage's local dial-a-ride is advertised out to 10 miles because it covers countryside, not because the city has separate districts. No metro/CBSA. Likely conservative as a 'single town' call — there are named activity clusters (downtown, 299, hospital) but they sit inside one ~1-mile footprint.", "source": null, "range": ["single-radius town", "multi-district metro"], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["city_radius_mi"]}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "theme": "geography", "label": "City radius", "value": 0.95, "unit": "mi", "basis": "derived", "why": "No published centre-to-edge figure; this is the equivalent circular radius of the settled Census land area, which matches a compact built-up town.", "math": "Settled land area A = 2.839 sq mi. For a circle, r = sqrt(A/π) = sqrt(2.839/3.14159) = sqrt(0.9037) = 0.95 miles. Wikipedia infobox land is 2.84 sq mi (same radius). The municipal GA airport is 1.2 mi west of the CBD, so the real footprint is slightly elongated along the highways; 0.95 mi is the area-equivalent radius, not the farthest street. Likely a touch low if an editor wants highway-strip extent — raise toward 1.2–1.5 mi for that.", "source": null, "range": [0.5, 2.0], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "district_count", "theme": "geography", "label": "Demand districts", "value": 3, "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Three named activity clusters sit inside the single-radius town: downtown Main Street, the CA-299/12th Street highway commercial strip, and the hospital campus — not separate fleet bases.", "math": "US 395 is Main Street (courthouse, shops, Niles Theater, hotels). CA-299 enters as W 12th Street and merges with 395 in town (Wikipedia/Wikivoyage) — that junction is the retail/highway strip. Modoc Medical Center and its SNFs sit on Nagle/McDowell about half a mile from centre. Desert Rose Casino is ~1 mile SE but Wikipedia places it just outside city limits, so it is not counted as an in-city district. Mean ACS commute is 18.5 minutes (Census Reporter), which includes county trips; in-town hops are a few minutes. A fleet does not choose between these the way it would in a metro.", "source": null, "range": [1, 5], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["geography_type"]}, {"id": "districts_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named districts", "value": "downtown Main Street (US 395 courthouse, shops, Niles Theater); CA-299 / 12th Street highway commercial; Modoc Medical Center campus on Nagle Street", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Those are the three clusters a dispatcher would name; they are walking-to-short-drive apart, not rival submarkets.", "math": "Downtown = US 395 / Main Street (Wikivoyage: US 395 'goes north-south through town as Main Street'; Wikipedia photo set of courthouse and Niles Theater). Highway commercial = CA-299 as W 12th Street at the 395 merge. Hospital campus = MMC + Warnerview/Mountain View SNFs (MMC site; Mountain View at 1109 N Nagle St). Casino/rancheria is outside city limits (Wikipedia).", "source": null, "range": ["one downtown core", "downtown / 299 strip / hospital / casino / airport road"], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["district_count"]}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Scheduled flights at RDD", "value": "About 6 daily departures to 4 hubs: United Express to SFO (2–5/day), DEN (1–2), LAX (1); Alaska to SEA (1). Alturas Municipal is GA-only.", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "RDD is a small spoke, not a hub; this schedule is the demand pattern. Directflights compiles airline schedules (secondary); the City of Redding operator page names the same four destinations. Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://www.directflights.com/RDD: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": ["2 daily to 1 hub", "15 daily mixed"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "generators_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Named demand generators", "value": "Modoc Medical Center (12-bed CAH + 84 SNF beds); Modoc NF Supervisor's Office (225 W 8th); Modoc County government; MJUSD schools; Cal Fire Devil's Garden; Desert Rose Casino just SE of city; grocery strip on CA-299", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the named employers and venues that actually pull trips; there is no college campus and no large private plant.", "math": "MMC self-describes as a 12-bed CAH operating two SNFs totaling 84 beds (hospital site; Mountain View 50 beds opened Nov 2025). USFS Supervisors Office is at 225 West 8th Street, Alturas (fs.usda.gov, updated 2026-07-07). Wikipedia: governments are the largest employers; MJUSD HQ in Alturas; Desert Rose Casino just outside city limits. County 2024–29 Housing Element (HCD submittal) lists Alturas employers including Cal Fire Devil Garden (100–249), schools (50–99), grocers, hospital, federal offices. No in-city college (see college_enrollment).", "source": null, "range": ["hospital and county offices only", "hospital / forest / schools / casino / fairgrounds / college"], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["hospital_beds", "college_enrollment"], "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "theme": "geography", "label": "Largest hospital staffed beds", "value": 12, "unit": "beds", "basis": "sourced", "why": "Modoc Medical Center is the only hospital in the county; 12 is the acute/critical-access bed count the hospital publishes on its own homepage (SNF beds are separate). This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Modoc Medical Center", "date": "2026-09", "url": "https://modocmedicalcenter.org/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [8, 25], "editable": true, "depends_on": null, "federal_check": {"verdict": "skipped", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 1}}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "theme": "geography", "label": "College enrollment in the city", "value": 0, "unit": "students", "basis": "estimated", "why": "There is no college campus in Alturas; dual-enrollment at Modoc High is high-school students, not a city college.", "math": "CollegeSimply: 'There are no colleges in Alturas, but 26 are within 200 miles' (nearest listed: Lassen Community College, Susanville, 73.4 miles). Record-Bee / EdSource 2023-07-15: Alturas is '205 miles from the nearest four-year university, California State University, Chico, and 90 miles from the nearest community college, Shasta College Intermountain Campus.' Wikipedia Education section names only Modoc Joint Unified. ACS counts of residents enrolled in college are people commuting or studying online, not a local campus. Value is 0. Likely exact for in-city colleges; do not substitute resident-college-enrollment (~90–100 from ACS shares).", "source": null, "range": [0, 300], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "events_note", "theme": "geography", "label": "Events that move demand", "value": "Fandango Days (July 4 weekend, Main Street parade, ~3,500); Winterfest parade of lights (December); Modoc County Junior Livestock Show (June, JLS Grounds)", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "These are the recurring in-town events with a published month; the county fair is in Cedarville, not Alturas.", "math": "Fandango Days: Alturas Chamber, July 4 (FestivalNet updated 2026-06-29: parade 10:30 a.m. Main Street, attendance 3,500; SierraDailyNews listed July 5 2025). Winterfest: Chamber parade of lights, December 6 2025 listing (SierraDailyNews), Main Street from Veterans Memorial Park. JLS: Alturas FFA calendar, 'Modoc County JLS (JLS Grounds, June) A week-long event here in Alturas!' Modoc District Fair is in Cedarville (CDFA fair dates; omitted). 2025 National Sheepdog Finals were 12 miles west of town at Lazy Spade Ranch — not annual in-city, omitted. Attendance 3,500 is promoter-reported, likely the high-end crowd for a 2,600-person town.", "source": null, "range": ["July parade only", "July Fandango / Dec Winterfest / June JLS / county fair"], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "theme": "costs", "label": "California TNC / for-hire liability minimums", "value": "$1,000,000 primary from match through drop-off; $50,000/$100,000/$30,000 + $200,000 excess while the app is on awaiting a match; UM/UIM $60,000 per person / $300,000 per incident while a passenger is in the vehicle", "unit": "", "basis": "sourced", "why": "California Public Utilities Code §5433 is the statute that sets TNC insurance floors statewide, including Alturas; SB 371 (Stats. 2025, ch. 314) lowered Period-3 UM/UIM from $1,000,000 to $60,000/$300,000 effective 1 Jan 2026, so the CPUC summary page that still lists $1,000,000 UM/UIM is stale. A non-TNC TCP sedan is instead $750,000 under CPUC General Order 115 (CPUC Passenger Carrier FAQs), which is a different product.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "California Public Utilities Code §5433 (leginfo)", "date": "2026-01", "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PUC&sectionNum=5433", "tier": "primary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note"}, "range": [50000, 5000000], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "registration_note", "theme": "costs", "label": "For-hire / TNC vehicle registration and permit fees", "value": "$1,000 new CPUC TNC/TCP permit, $100 to renew (PUC §5373.1); TNC drivers in a personal vehicle file no separate CPUC permit", "unit": "", "basis": "estimated", "why": "A TNC is a subclass of a CPUC charter-party (TCP-P) permit; the filing fees are in statute, not a broker page. CPUC Passenger Carrier FAQs (retrieved this session) add that TCP/TNC permits run three years and renew at $100. TNC drivers using a personal vehicle enroll with the TNC rather than taking their own permit. Alturas publishes no local for-hire vehicle plate or city TNC fee. Separate statewide items not in this statute: DMV original/renewal registration $76 plus $34 CHP (dmv.ca.gov registration-fees page, retrieved this session) and the TNC Access for All $0.10 per completed trip, remitted by the TNC (CPUC Access for All page, retrieved this session). Unconfirmed -- treated as our estimate.", "math": "Verification failed on https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PUC&sectionNum=5373.1: the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note). We checked the citation the research pass gave us and could not confirm it, so this number is presented as our own estimate rather than as a published figure.", "source": null, "range": [100, 2500], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "parking_month", "theme": "costs", "label": "Downtown monthly parking", "value": 0, "unit": "$/month", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Alturas does not publish a parking-meter ordinance, monthly parking permit, or downtown parking rate table. That absence is the answer: on-street parking is untreated as a paid city product.", "math": "Opened the City of Alturas site (home, Public Works, Police) and searched the Alturas Municipal Code on Municode (codified through Ord. No. 529, 21 Mar 2023). Public Works lists water, sewer, street, airport, building, and planning — no parking division or rate schedule. The Police page has no meter, permit, or citation-fee table. Municode has no parking-meter chapter; zoning Ch. 28 treats public streets as short-term public parking only (no charge stated). No city-sold monthly stall exists in the maintained documents, so the monthly cost is $0. Direction of uncertainty: could be understated only if a private downtown lot later charges; the city itself does not.", "source": null, "range": [0, 150], "editable": true, "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "label": "US adults who have ever used a ride-hailing app", "value": 0.36, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The published national benchmark the local figure is built from. It is pinned in the pipeline rather than researched fresh each time, because asking a language model for a published fact four times returns four answers, and that variance was landing straight in rides per day. The page is still fetched and checked on every run. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": null, "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.55], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "label": "Of people who have ever used it, the share who ride in a given month", "value": 0.32, "unit": "share", "basis": "sourced", "why": "The second half of the same national survey, taken from the same page so that the two halves describe the same population. Ten per cent of users ride at least weekly and another 22% monthly; the other 67% ride less than once a month. This is a secondary source -- it republishes a figure it did not itself produce.", "math": "0.10 riding at least weekly + 0.22 riding monthly = 0.32 of ever-users taking a trip in a given month. The complement the page prints, 67% riding less than monthly, agrees with it to within rounding.", "source": {"name": "Pew Research Center", "date": "2019-01-04", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "tier": "secondary", "verified_on": "2026-09-09", "verified_by": "the exact quoted text is on the page"}, "range": [0.2, 0.5], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "label": "How much more, or less, this town hires rides than the country does", "value": 0.614, "unit": "x national", "basis": "derived", "why": "The step from the national figure to this town, built only from measured Census figures so that it is the same number every time it is computed. It replaces the sentence a language model used to write here -- '0.115 x 1.25 plus a modest nightlife premium' -- in which the premium was invisible and unrepeatable.", "math": "Two measured local signals, each taken against the same figure summed over all 3144 county rows of the same ACS 2020-2024 file. Households with no vehicle: 0.1258 here against 0.0835 nationally = 1.51x. Workers commuting by taxi or ride-hail (ACS B08301_016, a line the Census counts explicitly): 0.00000 here against 0.00261 nationally = 0.00x. Each ratio is clamped to 0.25-4.00 because one ACS cell in a small place rests on very few responses, then blended as a geometric mean because these are ratios, giving 0.61x, clamped to 0.30-3.50. WHAT THIS CANNOT SEE: whether drivers are actually available. In a small town supply, not demand, is usually what binds.", "source": null, "range": [0.31, 1.23], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["no_vehicle_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "label": "Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month", "value": 0.0707, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "The share of adults in Alturas who hire a ride in a typical month. This is one of the two numbers that decide rides per day, so it is now computed rather than judged: nothing about it is asked of a language model.", "math": "Computed, not estimated. 0.36 of US adults have ever used a ride-hail app x 0.32 of those users taking a trip in a given month = 0.1152 of US adults in a typical month (fall 2018 survey, Pew Research Center). Stepped to this town by the measured multiplier of 0.61x: 0.1152 x 0.61 = 0.0707. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN. It and the visitor chain are the two numbers the whole ride estimate turns on, and this one is built from a national survey and two Census ratios -- it cannot see how many drivers are actually on the road here, which in a small market is usually the real limit. The editable band runs 0.0283 to 0.1767, roughly 0.4x to 2.5x, which is how uncertain this honestly is. Pew's State of Gig Work (December 2021) separately found that 22% of US adults had used a ride-hailing app in the previous twelve months. A national monthly share of 11.5% sits sensibly inside that; it would not if the monthly share were near the annual one.", "source": null, "range": [0.0283, 0.1767], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "label": "Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month", "value": 2.1, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Counted only over the people who are active in that month, so it can never be below 1. It multiplies the entire resident stream, which is why it is drawn several times rather than once.", "math": "How many rides a local who uses ride-hail at all in a month takes in that month. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 2.1, 2.1. The MEDIAN, 2.1, is used; the draws spanned 1.8 to 2.2, a factor of 1.22. Among the few monthly-active residents, a compact town and 18.5-minute commute keep use to a small handful, only slightly lifted by the 0.1258 no-vehicle share.", "source": null, "range": [1.0, 6.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "label": "Share of visitors who arrive by air", "value": 0.0, "unit": "share", "basis": "derived", "why": "A party that flies in has two airport transfers to make and no car; a party that drives in has neither. This is the fork the whole visitor chain turns on, and where two published counts exist it is division rather than judgement.", "math": "No air-arrival share could be built: the nearest commercial airport is too far away to be this town's. It is set to zero, which means the airport transfer contributes nothing to the visitor trip count and this chain is a FLOOR for any town whose visitors do fly in.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 0.05], "editable": true, "depends_on": ["airport_passengers_year", "visitors_year"], "theme": "demand"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "label": "Of air arrivals, the share whose airport transfer is a hired ride", "value": 0.05, "unit": "share", "basis": "estimated", "why": "The rest rent a car, take a hotel or casino shuttle, ride a rail or bus link, or get a lift. This is judgement -- no federal file counts it -- but it is a narrow question about one airport rather than an open one about a whole city.", "math": "How many air-arriving parties hire their ride from the airport. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.08, 0.07, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05. The MEDIAN, 0.05, is used; the draws spanned 0.05 to 0.08, a factor of 1.60. RDD is 113.3 miles from the city centre, so nearly all air arrivals rent a car rather than take a two-hour taxi or ride-hail.", "source": null, "range": [0.05, 0.8], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides a visiting party takes in town, per visit", "value": 0.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Trips during the stay, not counting the two airport transfers. A resort where everything is walkable from the hotel is low; a spread-out city is higher.", "math": "How many hired rides a visiting party takes while it is here, excluding the airport transfers. Drawn 5 times independently with no web search, so that the run-to-run wobble is measured rather than hidden: 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2. The MEDIAN, 0.2, is used; the draws spanned 0.2 to 0.2, a factor of 1.00. A 1.5-night stay in a 2.839-square-mile town is walkable and parties already have a car from the long airport transfer, so in-stay ride-hail is rare.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 5.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "label": "Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in", "value": 0.2, "unit": "trips", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Every hired ride one visiting PARTY takes on one visit, airport transfers included. Per party and per visit -- not per head and not per night. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is never a count of rides.", "math": "Built from its parts rather than answered as one number, because answered as one number it came back 1.2 on one run and 3.5 on the next and moved the whole town's ride estimate by a factor of three. 2 airport transfers x 0.000 arriving by air x 0.050 of those hiring a ride = 0.000, plus 0.200 trips in town = 0.200 trips a party. Pushing every judgement piece to its own measured extreme gives a range of 0.20 to 0.20. CHANGE THIS FIRST IF YOU KNOW THE TOWN -- this and the monthly ride-hail share are the two numbers the whole estimate rests on, and this one is judgement about tourists that no federal file counts.", "source": null, "range": [0.0, 8.0], "editable": true, "theme": "demand", "depends_on": null}, {"id": "rides_per_day", "label": "Rides a day, whole town", "value": 21, "unit": "rides/day", "basis": "estimated", "why": "Total app-hailed trips a day across every operator in the city -- the pool your fleet competes for a share of, not the number you will get.", "math": "Nobody publishes rides per day for a town this size, so this is built as a chain and every link is visible. People living here = 2634 (a published figure); Share of residents who are adults = 0.8094 (worked out from published figures); Local adults taking a ride-hail trip in a given month = 0.0707 (worked out from published figures); Trips a month, per local who rides at all that month = 2.1 (our estimate); Annual visitors = 42000 (our estimate); Average visiting party size = 2.2 (our estimate); Hired rides one visiting party takes per visit, all in = 0.2 (our estimate). Residents: 2,634 people x 0.8094 adults = 2,132 adults; x 0.0707 who take a ride-hail trip in a given month = 151 people; x 2.1 trips each a month = 317 trips a month; divided by 30.4 days = 10 resident rides a day. Visitors: 42,000 a year / 2.2 people in a party = 19,091 visiting parties; x 0.2 ride-hail trips a party takes while it is here / 365 days = 10 visitor rides a day. A party shares one car, so a count of visitors is not a count of rides. Visitors are 50% of this total, so the answer turns on the visitor figures more than on the residents. Total: 21 rides a day across ALL operators, not just yours. RANGE, HONESTLY: running the same arithmetic with every judgement link at its own low bound gives 14 rides a day, and at its own high bound 38. The 21 above is the midpoint of a real range, not a measurement. The bounds are this run's own -- the panel's lowest and highest draws and the computed share's editable band -- so the width of this range is a report of how unsure the research was. NO CROSS-CHECK EXISTS, AND THE SEARCH IS ON THE RECORD. Checked the five places, in order. (1) State TNC/taxi authority: California has no Nevada-style taxicab authority; CPUC regulates TNCs. CPUC TNC Data Portal public 2021–2024 annual reports are suspended (D.25-10-062). CPUC Access for All 2026–27 NOFA, fees from Q3 2023 through Q2 2025, lists MODOC available funds as $— (zero), at $0.10 per completed TNC trip—consistent with essentially no originating TNC trips, but that is a fee ledger not a published trip total. PERB statewide TNC totals are California-wide, not Modoc. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: City of Alturas business list has lodging, no taxi; Modoc County code index has no TNC trip table. (3) Airport ground transportation: Alturas Municipal (AAT) is general aviation, 1 nm west of downtown, no commercial enplanements or TNC pickup stats. (4) MPO/RTPA travel survey: MCTC 2024 SRTP (opened) inventories private providers (ABC Taxi Redding, Road Runner Yreka) and Sage Stage ridership, and does not publish a TNC or taxi trip count for Alturas. 2025 RTP is listed but was not a trip-count table. (5) Local reporting: no news story quoting a Modoc/Alturas taxi or TNC trip total; neighboring Plumas/Lassen/Butte announced Uber/Lyft only in November 2025, and Modoc was not included. Therefore value = 0 trips/year as the audited absence. Nothing independent confirms this chain. That absence is stated rather than hidden: a pack with no cross-check is weaker than one with a disagreeing cross-check, because the disagreeing one at least tells you which way you might be wrong. Direction of uncertainty: this counts only app-hailed rides and ignores taxis, shuttles, non-emergency medical transport and the airport's own courtesy runs, so it is more likely low than high. It also assumes supply exists to meet the demand, which in a small town is often the binding constraint rather than demand itself.", "source": null, "range": [5, 83], "editable": true, "low": 14, "high": 38, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked the five places, in order. (1) State TNC/taxi authority: California has no Nevada-style taxicab authority; CPUC regulates TNCs. CPUC TNC Data Portal public 2021–2024 annual reports are suspended (D.25-10-062). CPUC Access for All 2026–27 NOFA, fees from Q3 2023 through Q2 2025, lists MODOC available funds as $— (zero), at $0.10 per completed TNC trip—consistent with essentially no originating TNC trips, but that is a fee ledger not a published trip total. PERB statewide TNC totals are California-wide, not Modoc. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: City of Alturas business list has lodging, no taxi; Modoc County code index has no TNC trip table. (3) Airport ground transportation: Alturas Municipal (AAT) is general aviation, 1 nm west of downtown, no commercial enplanements or TNC pickup stats. (4) MPO/RTPA travel survey: MCTC 2024 SRTP (opened) inventories private providers (ABC Taxi Redding, Road Runner Yreka) and Sage Stage ridership, and does not publish a TNC or taxi trip count for Alturas. 2025 RTP is listed but was not a trip-count table. (5) Local reporting: no news story quoting a Modoc/Alturas taxi or TNC trip total; neighboring Plumas/Lassen/Butte announced Uber/Lyft only in November 2025, and Modoc was not included. Therefore value = 0 trips/year as the audited absence.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 21, "our_range_per_day": [5, 83]}, "theme": "people", "federal_check": {"verdict": "confirmed", "subject": "population", "claim": "2,634 people", "federal": "the note says 2,634; the Census file says Alturas city 2,634 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "findings": 2}}], "notes": {"power": "Alturas is PG&E bundled service (no CCA found in Modoc County). EV2-A off-peak $0.22558 is year-round and well below PG&E’s EIA-861 2024 bundled residential average of $0.3962 — a real overnight window. EV2-A requires a registered BEV/PHEV, battery storage, or heat pump, and usage under 800% of baseline; it also adds a daily base services charge ($0.19713–$0.79343/day by income tier) not in the kWh rates. Commercial alternative, if EV load is separately metered: Schedule BEV-1 total bundled energy Peak $0.35711 / Off-Peak $0.16510 / Super Off-Peak $0.13844, effective 2026-03-01, plus $12.41 per 10 kW-month subscription (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_BEV.pdf). Anyone on residential service can take E-TOU-D (summer off-peak $0.34212, peak $0.47708; winter off-peak $0.34886, peak $0.38747) from https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_E-TOU-D.pdf. Small-general B-6 exists (summer off-peak $0.38491) but is not a cheap overnight window versus the EIA commercial average. Only public DCFC in town is the Tesla Supercharger; Tesla members $0.44 vs public $0.62.", "demand": "Calendar year 2023 is the visitor-spending year (Dean Runyan / Visit California county table actually opened). A 2025 statewide Visit California HTML page exists but had no Modoc person-trip count in the retrieved text; do not swap years. Uphail.com auto-pages claiming Uber/Lyft 'run in Alturas' were discarded as unverified aggregators. CPUC TNC zip-level reports for 2021–2024 remain unpublished. Established Census facts used as ground: pop 2634, land 2.839 sq mi, county pop 8426, 12.58% of households with no vehicle, 18.5-minute mean commute, 0.0 taxi/ride-hail commute, 0.0 public-transport commute. Sage Stage how-to-ride (no weekends) is https://sagestage.com/how-to-ride/ . Casino hours from Casino City. Trailside Inn 38 rooms from Orbitz property copy; Super 8 48 rooms from Travel Weekly.", "geography": "Land area 2.839 sq mi and pop 2634 are the bulk-file ground; Wikipedia infobox land is 2.84 sq mi. HCAI LFIS (https://lfis.hcai.ca.gov/Facility/Detail/199357) is JS-rendered and did not yield verifiable text in this session; search snippets showed 96 licensed beds (12 GAC + 84 SNF), which matches MMC's own 12-bed CAH + 84 SNF wording — used the hospital homepage. City of Redding airport page confirms RDD destinations SFO/LAX/SEA/DEN but not the daily count; daily '6' is from Directflights (schedule compiler). Alturas Municipal (AAT) is GA, 1.2 mi west of the CBD — not the commercial airport. Modoc District Fair is in Cedarville; do not treat it as an Alturas demand spike. CollegeSimply and Record-Bee both place the nearest campus tens of miles away; ACS 'college enrollment' of residents is not a local campus.", "costs": "Insurance and permit figures are statewide California law; Alturas has no local overlay. PUC §5433 as amended by SB 371 (effective 1 Jan 2026) is the live TNC liability statute — do not use the CPUC TNC insurance-requirements HTML, which still states $1,000,000 Period-3 UM/UIM. Registration value is the CPUC operating-authority fee in PUC §5373.1; ordinary DMV registration ($76 + $34 CHP on the live DMV fees page) and the $0.10/trip Access for All fee are extra statewide items retrieved this session but not on the §5373.1 page, so they are not in the value string. Parking is $0 because no maintained Alturas parking-rate document exists (cityofalturas.us home, Public Works, Police; Municode code of ordinances)."}, "gaps": ["visitor_air_arrival_share: the nearest commercial airport is 113 miles away, past the 35-mile line at which it stops being this town's airport, so its boardings were NOT divided by this town's visitors -- doing so would have handed a small town a large airport's traffic", "visitor_air_arrival_share: could not be built, so visitors are counted as arriving by road and the visitor stream is a floor", "rides_per_day: the five named sources were checked and none publishes a trip count for this city, so the estimate stands on its own arithmetic"], "counts": {"total": 80, "sourced": 28, "derived": 30, "estimated": 22}, "applies_to_game": {"overrides": 10, "how": "A record carrying `game_id` replaces that id in the game's assumptions.js when this city is selected. The rest of the pack is city context the model has no slot for yet -- rides per day, the trip-length split, the airport's traffic, the demand generators -- and is stated rather than quietly mapped onto something it is not.", "unmapped": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_flights_note", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "city_radius_mi", "climate_station", "college_enrollment", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "district_count", "districts_note", "events_note", "generators_note", "geography_type", "hospital_beds", "insurance_min_liability", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "night_share", "no_vehicle_share", "parking_month", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_supply_choice_share", "power_tou_note", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "registration_note", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "ridehail_present", "rides_per_day", "rides_reported", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "transit_note", "trip_mi_avg", "trip_mi_long_share", "trip_mi_short_share", "trips_per_user_month", "visitor_air_arrival_share", "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "visitor_nights_avg", "visitor_party_size", "visitor_trips_per_stay", "visitors_year", "wet_days_year"]}, "source_mix": {"with_a_citation": 28, "primary": 18, "secondary": 10, "tier_unknown": 0, "no_citation_derived_or_estimated": 52, "read_from_a_federal_bulk_file": 43, "how": "A `primary` citation is the body that produced the figure -- a .gov file, or the utility, airport or operator publishing its own number. `secondary` is somebody re-publishing a number they did not produce. Records with no citation are the derived and estimated ones, and their working is in `math`."}, "bulk_sources": {"records": 43, "records_needing_no_citation_check": 17, "record_ids": ["adult_share", "airport_code", "airport_distance_mi", "airport_name", "airport_passengers_year", "airport_traffic_change_pct", "clean_biohazard_cost", "clean_deep_cost", "clean_wipe_cost", "climate_station", "commute_drove_alone_share", "commute_taxi_ridehail_share", "commute_transit_share", "commute_wfh_share", "density", "depot_rent_month", "insurance_base_month", "insurance_per_car_month", "labour_note", "land_area_sqmi", "local_cleaner_wage", "local_labour_index", "local_rent_index", "mean_commute_minutes", "median_household_income", "metro_population", "no_vehicle_share", "population", "power_state_avg", "power_state_avg_commercial", "power_state_avg_ytd", "power_supply_choice_share", "power_utility", "power_utility_alternatives", "power_utility_rate", "power_utility_rate_commercial", "precip_year_in", "snow_days_year", "snow_year_in", "temp_annual_avg_f", "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "wet_days_year"], "how": "These came out of national files that cover every city in the country. The file is downloaded ONCE and shared by every city in the run; the city is matched to its row by a key -- a place or county FIPS code, an FAA airport identifier, or a coordinate -- never by name. They do not go through the citation verifier, because there is no cited page to check: the federal file is the source. What guards them instead is a plausibility band applied when the record is built, and anything outside it is flagged into `gaps` rather than accepted.", "files": {"sub-est2025.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 7464556, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/cities/totals/sub-est2025.csv"}, "gaz_place_06.txt": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 166313, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2025_Gazetteer/2025_gaz_place_06.txt"}, "co-est2025-alldata.csv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 2071735, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv"}, "faa-cy2024-commercial-service-enplanements.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 58201, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": 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"bls-oes2024-area-definitions.xlsx": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 147222, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/2024/may/area_definitions_m2024.xlsx"}, "bls-oes2024-53-7061-areas.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 33711, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24ma.zip"}, "acs2024-b25064-us-states.psv": {"downloads": 0, "bytes": 1043, "wire_bytes": 0, "reuses": 1, "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25064.dat"}}, "downloads_this_run": 0, "cache_reuses_this_run": 28, "not_bulk_sourced_and_why": "What is still researched is the LOCAL STORY, and it is researched because it is real, published and findable: the utility's time-of-use split (a filed tariff, not a table), public fast-charge prices, the visitor economy, the state's minimum liability statute, the city's own parking schedule, and the named demand generators -- hospitals with their bed counts, colleges with their enrolments, the venue that fills the town. That is the half of a pack no federal file will ever carry, and it is the half worth having: Dover, Tennessee is a town of 1,918 people in the federal files and nothing more, and what makes it interesting is that 84% of its rides are visitors to Fort Donelson National Battlefield.", "derived_rather_than_researched": "Cleaning, depot rent and insurance USED to be researched and are not any more. They are manual-service prices that nobody publishes, because maintaining a price page is work and the price is whatever the owner says on the day. Searching for them found nothing at all in the smallest town and found ONE detailer's advertised price in the others, which was then stamped `sourced` -- a claim of rigour a sample of one does not have. Each is now a national published baseline times a published local index (BLS area wages for hand work, ACS median gross rent for property, NAIC state expenditure for insurance), with the arithmetic in `math`. See local_costs.py."}, "verification": {"bulk_records": 43, "bulk_needing_no_verification": 17, "citations_checked": 13, "citations_passed": 11, "citations_failed": 2, "primary": 1, "secondary": 10, "derived_downgraded": 0, "method": "Every record the model returned as 'sourced' had its cited URL fetched. The page had to load, and the figure had to be in its text within 400 characters of one of the record's own keywords. Anything that failed was demoted to 'estimated' with the failure written into its math.", "reports": [{"id": "population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 162, GEOID 0601444 -- Alturas city, California", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "land_area_sqmi", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEOID 0601444 -- Alturas city", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "density", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "metro_population", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "SUMLEV 050, GEOID 06049 -- Modoc County, California", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_name", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid RDD -- Redding Regional, Redding CA", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_code", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid RDD -- Redding Regional, Redding CA", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_passengers_year", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "Locid RDD -- Redding Regional, Redding CA", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_traffic_change_pct", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "airport_distance_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "California, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_commercial", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "California, June 2026", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_state_avg_ytd", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "California, June 2026 YTD", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_utility", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. 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"url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_annual_avg_f", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_coldest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "temp_hottest_month_avg_f", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "ALTURAS, CA US (USC00040161), 0.4 mi from the city centre", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal 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"action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "adult_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "median_household_income", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "GEO_ID 1600000US0601444, B19013_E001", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "no_vehicle_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "commute_drove_alone_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read 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"url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_cleaner_wage", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "OCC_CODE 53-7061, AREA 0600007 -- North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "labour_note", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_labour_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "local_rent_index", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_wipe_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_deep_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "clean_biohazard_cost", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "depot_rent_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_base_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "insurance_per_car_month", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "primary", "detail": "read out of the federal file named in its source", "action": "not checked (read straight from a federal bulk file)"}, {"id": "power_offpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV2%20(Sch).pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "found 0.22558 on the same line as 'summer usage'", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_mid", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV2%20(Sch).pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_onpeak", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV2%20(Sch).pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_dcfc", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://dcfctracker.com/stations/190479", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "power_tou_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-plans/electric-vehicles.html", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 7 of the 10 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_present", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://modoctransportation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Modoc-SRTP-2024-Final.pdf", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "transit_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://sagestage.com/local-bus/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the page carries 9 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "trip_mi_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_short_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trip_mi_long_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "night_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitors_year", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_party_size", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_nights_avg", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "rides_reported", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "geography_type", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "city_radius_mi", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "district_count", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "districts_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "airport_flights_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.directflights.com/RDD", "status": 0, "url_ok": false, "figure_ok": null, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "generators_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "hospital_beds", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://modocmedicalcenter.org/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "college_enrollment", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "events_note", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "insurance_min_liability", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PUC&sectionNum=5433", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the page carries 8 of the 14 distinctive words in this note", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "registration_note", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PUC&sectionNum=5373.1", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": false, "tier": "primary", "detail": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note)", "action": "demoted to estimated"}, {"id": "parking_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_ever_share", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "basis_in": "sourced", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/", "status": 200, "url_ok": true, "figure_ok": true, "tier": "secondary", "detail": "the exact quoted text is on the page", "action": "kept"}, {"id": "ridehail_local_multiplier", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "ridehail_month_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "trips_per_user_month", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_air_arrival_share", "basis_in": "derived", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_airport_ridehail_share", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_local_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}, {"id": "visitor_trips_per_stay", "basis_in": "estimated", "url": null, "status": null, "url_ok": null, "figure_ok": null, "tier": null, "detail": "", "action": "not checked (not a sourced record)"}]}, "cost": {"calls": 9, "input_tokens": 0, "output_tokens": 0, "web_searches": 0, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 1938.5, "measured_on": "2026-09-09", "note": "measured when the research actually ran on 2026-09-09; rebuilding the pack from the saved answers costs nothing"}, "search_ceiling": {"scope": "alturas-ca", "searches_charged": 0, "search_ceiling": 200, "searches_left": 200, "calls_made": 0, "call_ceiling": 12, "search_enabled_calls": 0, "per_call_ceiling": 60, "charged_by_estimate": 0, "how_the_cli_is_charged": "The Grok CLI does not report how many web searches it made, so every search-enabled call is charged a flat 28 -- the measured mean of the runs this ceiling exists to prevent (668 searches over 24 search-enabled calls). It is deliberately the worst case, so the ceiling binds early rather than late.", "per_call_breaches": [], "refusals": [], "bound": false, "why": "Six cities on 2026-09-08 made 668 web searches between them and pulled 13,057,511 input tokens, because nothing counted them. This ceiling refuses a call the remaining budget cannot pay for. It is set well above the shape of a normal city on purpose: it is a guard rail against a loop that has run away, not a reason to ask fewer questions about the town. If it bound, the fields that went unresearched are named in `gaps`."}, "reproducibility": {"why": "Re-running the same research prompt for the same city used to return materially different judgement figures, and those figures dominate rides per day. Three variables were taken off the model and rebuilt: the monthly ride-hail share is now computed from a pinned national survey and two measured Census ratios; the per-party visitor trip rate is composed from narrower questions; and what judgement is left is drawn several times and reported as a median with its spread.", "computed_not_judged": ["ridehail_ever_share", "ridehail_active_share_of_users", "ridehail_local_multiplier", "ridehail_month_share", "visitor_air_arrival_share"], "panel_draws": 5, "panel": {"visitor_airport_ridehail_share": {"median": 0.05, "draws": [0.08, 0.07, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05], "min": 0.05, "max": 0.08, "spread_x": 1.6}, "visitor_local_trips_per_stay": {"median": 0.2, "draws": [0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "min": 0.2, "max": 0.2, "spread_x": 1.0}, "trips_per_user_month": {"median": 2.1, "draws": [2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 2.1, 2.1], "min": 1.8, "max": 2.2, "spread_x": 1.22}}, "panel_answers_clipped_to_bounds": [], "rides_per_day_range": [14, 38]}, "cross_check": {"has_cross_check": false, "search_was_audited": true, "searched": "Checked the five places, in order. (1) State TNC/taxi authority: California has no Nevada-style taxicab authority; CPUC regulates TNCs. CPUC TNC Data Portal public 2021–2024 annual reports are suspended (D.25-10-062). CPUC Access for All 2026–27 NOFA, fees from Q3 2023 through Q2 2025, lists MODOC available funds as $— (zero), at $0.10 per completed TNC trip—consistent with essentially no originating TNC trips, but that is a fee ledger not a published trip total. PERB statewide TNC totals are California-wide, not Modoc. (2) City/county TNC permit reports and open data: City of Alturas business list has lodging, no taxi; Modoc County code index has no TNC trip table. (3) Airport ground transportation: Alturas Municipal (AAT) is general aviation, 1 nm west of downtown, no commercial enplanements or TNC pickup stats. (4) MPO/RTPA travel survey: MCTC 2024 SRTP (opened) inventories private providers (ABC Taxi Redding, Road Runner Yreka) and Sage Stage ridership, and does not publish a TNC or taxi trip count for Alturas. 2025 RTP is listed but was not a trip-count table. (5) Local reporting: no news story quoting a Modoc/Alturas taxi or TNC trip total; neighboring Plumas/Lassen/Butte announced Uber/Lyft only in November 2025, and Modoc was not included. Therefore value = 0 trips/year as the audited absence.", "verdict": ["none", "five named sources were checked and none of them publishes a trip count for this city"], "our_estimate_per_day": 21, "our_range_per_day": [5, 83]}, "replayed_from_saved_research": true, "summary": "This is a planning tool, not a prediction. Of the 80 numbers behind a season in Alturas, 28 are published figures, 30 are worked out from published figures, and 22 are our own estimates. 43 of them were read straight out of a federal file that covers every city in the country, so there was no citation to trust and no page to misread. You can change any of them. Your result is only as good as the numbers you agree with.", "federal_cross_check": {"rule": "Every research claim about charging stations, population or airports is checked against a federal bulk file the pipeline already holds on disk: chargers against the DOE/AFDC station snapshot (open, public sites within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center), population against the Census place and county estimates, airports against the FAA enplanement file. Confirmed means the federal file agrees within tolerance (a stall count within 25% or one stall; a figure within 5%). Disputed means the federal file holds a different figure -- both are printed and the pack keeps its own citation. Unconfirmed means the federal file has no record of the thing claimed, which is never treated as false: the locator is voluntary submission and grant-funded sites lag it. Hospital claims are not checked because no federal hospital file is cached. A planned or permitted site never counts as present.", "checked_on": "2026-09-18", "town_center": [41.489136, -120.551286], "geoid": "0601444", "files": {"chargers": {"name": "US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center station locator", "snapshot": "2026-09-16", "rows": "89386", "views": "dcfc_public / l2_public (status E, public, unrestricted)", "path": "../../american_adventurer/data/camp_leads.sqlite"}, "population": {"place": {"name": "Alturas city", "population": 2634, "vintage": "2025", "file": "sub-est2025.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "county": {"name": "Modoc County", "population": 8426, "vintage": "2025", "file": "co-est2025-alldata.csv", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "name": "US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025"}, "airports": {"name": "FAA CY2024 commercial service enplanements + FAA airport layer", "read_on": "2026-09-07"}, "hospitals": {"skipped": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)"}}, "federal_chargers_within_10mi": {"dcfc_sites": 1, "dcfc_ports": 8, "dcfc_list": [{"name": "Alturas, CA - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 0.6, "open_date": "2021-05-19"}], "l2_sites": 1, "l2_ports": 2, "nearest_dcfc": {"name": "Alturas, CA - Tesla Supercharger", "network": "Tesla", "ports": 8, "connectors": "TESLA", "miles": 0.6, "city": "Alturas", "state": "CA"}}, "counts": {"confirmed": 10, "disputed": 0, "unconfirmed": 0, "skipped_no_file": 5, "claims": 15, "records_touched": 9, "records_read_from_a_federal_file_not_rechecked": 43}, "findings": [{"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "8 fast-charging stalls (Tesla Supercharger)", "claim_text": "Public (non-member) price at the Tesla Supercharger at Holiday Market, 1200 West 12th Street — the only public DCFC in Alturas (8 stalls, up to 250 kW, 24/7).", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note counts 8 stalls; the snapshot lists Alturas, CA - Tesla Supercharger with 8 fast ports 0.6 mi from the town center (TESLA)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "power_dcfc", "field": "why", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Figure is from DCFC Tracker, which reads Tesla’s public price feed;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Alturas, CA - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 0.6 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "night_share", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Last Frontier Healthcare District (Modoc Medical Center) is a 50–99 employee employer with a 12-bed hospital plus SNF;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "rides_reported", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code AAT", "claim_text": "(3) Airport ground transportation: Alturas Municipal (AAT) is general aviation, 1 nm west of downtown, no commercial enplanements or TNC pickup stats.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists AAT (Alturas Muni) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "value", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "Modoc Medical Center (12-bed CAH + 84 SNF beds);", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "generators_note", "field": "math", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "MMC self-describes as a 12-bed CAH operating two SNFs totaling 84 beds (hospital site;", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "hospital_beds", "field": "why", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "12 is the acute/critical-access bed count the hospital publishes on its own homepage (SNF beds are separate).", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "population", "claim": "2,634 people", "claim_text": "Residents: 2,634 people x 0.8094 adults = 2,132 adults;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 2,634; the Census file says Alturas city 2,634 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "rides_per_day", "field": "math", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code AAT", "claim_text": "(3) Airport ground transportation: Alturas Municipal (AAT) is general aviation, 1 nm west of downtown, no commercial enplanements or TNC pickup stats.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists AAT (Alturas Muni) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}, {"record": "notes.power", "field": "text", "subject": "chargers", "claim": "Tesla Supercharger fast charging here", "claim_text": "Only public DCFC in town is the Tesla Supercharger;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the snapshot lists Alturas, CA - Tesla Supercharger (Tesla, 8 fast ports, 0.6 mi)", "tolerance": "within 10 straight-line miles of the Census town center; a stall count within 25% or one stall"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "2,634 people", "claim_text": "Established Census facts used as ground: pop 2634, land 2.839 sq mi, county pop 8426, 12.58% of households with no vehicle, 18.5-minute mean commute, 0.0 taxi/ride-hail commute, 0.0 public-transport commute.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 2,634; the Census file says Alturas city 2,634 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.demand", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "8,426 people", "claim_text": "Established Census facts used as ground: pop 2634, land 2.839 sq mi, county pop 8426, 12.58% of households with no vehicle, 18.5-minute mean commute, 0.0 taxi/ride-hail commute, 0.0 public-transport commute.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 8,426; the Census file says Modoc County 8,426 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "population", "claim": "2,634 people", "claim_text": "Land area 2.839 sq mi and pop 2634 are the bulk-file ground;", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the note says 2,634; the Census file says Alturas city 2,634 (Census vintage 2025) -- within 5%", "tolerance": "within 5%"}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "hospitals", "claim": "hospital bed count", "claim_text": "search snippets showed 96 licensed beds (12 GAC + 84 SNF), which matches MMC's own 12-bed CAH + 84 SNF wording — used the hospital homepage.", "verdict": "skipped", "federal": "no federal hospital file is cached (CMS Hospital General Information would be the file; it is not fetched by this rule)", "tolerance": ""}, {"record": "notes.geography", "field": "text", "subject": "airports", "claim": "airport code AAT", "claim_text": "Alturas Municipal (AAT) is GA, 1.2 mi west of the CBD — not the commercial airport.", "verdict": "confirmed", "federal": "the FAA airport layer lists AAT (Alturas Muni) -- no commercial enplanements, general aviation", "tolerance": "exact code"}]}, "citation_recheck": {"on": "2026-09-24", "how": "Every citation this pack's build-time check reported as failed was fetched again by hand on 2026-09-24: one request at a time, with the header set a real browser sends, a pause between hosts, a retry with a back-off on 403, 429 and 5xx, and redirects followed and recorded.", "counts": {"rechecked": 2, "gone": 0, "moved": 0, "blocked": 0, "flaky": 0, "answers_normally": 2, "passes_the_same_test_now": 0, "still_fails_the_same_test": 2, "could_not_be_read_today": 0}, "what_this_means": "A citation counted as failed at build time is not the same thing as a dead link. None of this pack's failed citations is a dead page. Where the URL answers and the same test now passes, the original failure was our own fetch being refused, not the source.", "citations": [{"record": "airport_flights_note", "url": "https://www.directflights.com/RDD", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "never fetched: the cited page could not be fetched (HTTP 403)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 5 of the 10 distinctive words in this note"}, {"record": "registration_note", "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PUC&sectionNum=5373.1", "url_today": "answers normally", "detail_today": "HTTP 200 on the first attempt", "build_time_verdict": "the cited page loads but does not carry the figure (the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note)", "same_test_now": "still fails", "same_test_detail": "the page carries only 4 of the 10 distinctive words in this note"}]}}, "ok": true}